AHC: Serbian Victory

[Rum Medeniyeti]

... in the Yugoslav wars and in Bosnia in particular.

I was thinking about this as a side-story while sketching a "restored Romanovs under Putin" timeline; in Russia, things are mostly the same as OTL as far as foreign policy clout is concerned till '98-'99, so it can't really be involved in this AHC.

Conditions for successfull AHC:

1.Some sort of Croat-Serb agreement eventually results in an orderly exchange of populations, Ataturk-Venizelos style, between Serbs in Croatia and Croats in Bosnia.

2.NATO is somehow involved but its involvement ends in some sort of fiasco, somewhere on the scale between Vietnam and Iraq.

3.Many Bosniaks are displaced from Bosnia in a manner similar to the 1948 War in Israel, ending up somewhere (where?), and being unable to return (similar to Israel). However, I want this to happen instead of the OTL massacres by the Serbs, as I'd really want to avoid them in my timeline (if at all possible).

4.Bosnia unites with Serbia and Montenegro in the mid-2000's having with Croatia (a) a stable peace, (b) mutually recognised borders, and (c) lucrative trade relations.

[I don't usually engage in Slavophile timelines, as I'm mildly Russophobic - don't worry, I'm fighting against it. This time though, I thought of giving it a go. The timeline might involve in the late 2000's a definitely successfull trading and political block - let's call it the Eurasian Union - which will include Finland (!), Romania, this Greater Serbia and others.]

 

[Kome]

Croatia and Serbia needs to work together and decide on partitioning Bosnia together. How we get there? Hard to say.

Alternatively Serbia really could have helped its allies out more.

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

But wouldn't outright involvement by (still) Yugoslavia tick off the Americans earlier?

 

[Dementor]

How is this a Slavophile timeline? The Bosniaks don't come out at all well here, so it compensates for the better fortunes of the Serbs.

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

"Slavophile" in the rather established 19th century Russian meaning of the term, perhaps.

As an aside, I love the "I have nothing helpful to say" posts, they bump the thread, keep them coming.

 

[Halagaz]

I was thinking about this as a side-story while sketching a "restored Romanovs under Putin" timeline;

And now I have a mental image of Putin declaring himself Vladimir I Romanov, Tsar and Autocrat of All the Russias...

Conditions for successfull AHC:

1.Some sort of Croat-Serb agreement eventually results in an orderly exchange of populations, Ataturk-Venizelos style, between Serbs in Croatia and Croats in Bosnia.

2.NATO is somehow involved but its involvement ends in some sort of fiasco, somewhere on the scale between Vietnam and Iraq.

3.Many Bosniaks are displaced from Bosnia in a manner similar to the 1948 War in Israel, ending up somewhere (where?), and being unable to return (similar to Israel). However, I want this to happen instead of the OTL massacres by the Serbs, as I'd really want to avoid them in my timeline (if at all possible).

4.Bosnia unites with Serbia and Montenegro in the mid-2000's having with Croatia (a) a stable peace, (b) mutually recognised borders, and (c) lucrative trade relations.

1. is exceptionally hard, massacres can be avoided, but even in those places where people of the non-mainstream ethnicity weren't outright expelled, they tended to trickle away to their own areas due to the very hostile atmosphere. Unless this can be considered a self-perpetuating "population exchange" of a sort, but I don't think it really can.

2. Yugoslavia's terrain is very good for guerilla warfare, so if the NATO puts troops on the ground, they won't have it easy, but they won't probably have a Vietnam-like fiasco either.
The Serbs shot down an F-117A stealth fighter in OTL. Maybe the NATO somehow blunders into having a dozen of the fighters shot down, instead of just one? That kind of qualifies as a fiasco.

3. Turkey? Albania? Another question is how they're going to get anywhere, Bosniak ethnic territory is completely surrounded by the Serbs and Croats.

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

And now I have a mental image of Putin declaring himself Vladimir I Romanov, Tsar and Autocrat of All the Russias...

Sorry, perhaps my English is not perfect. What I actually meant is: under the leadership of Putin from his position as Prime Minister of the Russian Empire, a restauration of a completely fictional branch of the Romanov family to the Throne of Russia.

Unfortunately, now I too have to live with the mental image of Vladimir I! (Would he be "I" though? Does Vladimir the Great count to the Emperors of Russia list?)

1. is exceptionally hard, massacres can be avoided, but even in those places where people of the non-mainstream ethnicity weren't outright expelled, they tended to trickle away to their own areas due to the very hostile atmosphere. Unless this can be considered a self-perpetuating "population exchange" of a sort, but I don't think it really can.

What I hactually had in mind was an echange as a result of some sort of an agreement after a Serb-Croat ceasefire. The exchange might be similar to what Greece and Turkey did in the 20's after the Greek-Turkish War.

3. Turkey? Albania? Another question is how they're going to get anywhere, Bosniak ethnic territory is completely surrounded by the Serbs and Croats.

I was thinking Croatia might be forced by circumstance to take some of them and to allow passage for others. Perhaps Austria, Slovenia and/or Italy might be saddled with some Bosniak refugees. Turkey is a good candidate, but Albania is not - they will surely die in the chaos there so I'd rather avoid that.

 

[Halagaz]

Sorry, perhaps my English is not perfect. What I actually meant is: under the leadership of Putin from his position as Prime Minister of the Russian Empire, a restauration of a completely fictional branch of the Romanov family to the Throne of Russia.

Unfortunately, now I too have to live with the mental image of Vladimir I! (Would he be "I" though? Does Vladimir the Great count to the Emperors of Russia list?)

Your English was fine, but I got that mental image nevertheless.

Why a fictional branch when there are surviving Romanovs to this day?

What I hactually had in mind was an echange as a result of some sort of an agreement after a Serb-Croat ceasefire. The exchange might be similar to what Greece and Turkey did in the 20's after the Greek-Turkish War.

I understand, but the problem is that, if the war drags out long enough, there will be no one to exchange, Serbs in Croatian territory and Croats in Serbian territory will be more or less a thing of the past. If Serbia itself does not enter the war, it will keep its minorities, but in that case how are the Serbs going to win, and how would Serbia be involved in a population exchange?

I don't know, maybe some sort of an early peace after significant Serbian gains can accomplish the goals.

I was thinking Croatia might be forced by circumstance to take some of them and to allow passage for others. Perhaps Austria, Slovenia and/or Italy might be saddled with some Bosniak refugees. Turkey is a good candidate, but Albania is not - they will surely die in the chaos there so I'd rather avoid that.

Oh, I forgot about the Pyramid riots and all that.

 

[Vendaval]

I was thinking Croatia might be forced by circumstance to take some of them and to allow passage for others. Perhaps Austria, Slovenia and/or Italy might be saddled with some Bosniak refugees. Turkey is a good candidate, but Albania is not - they will surely die in the chaos there so I'd rather avoid that.

In addition to Turkey, I think Germany would also be a good candidate since they have the largest Bosniak population in Western Europe.

 

[DrakonFin]

The timeline might involve in the late 2000's a definitely successfull trading and political block - let's call it the Eurasian Union - which will include Finland (!)

Considering the strength of the forces pushing Finland towards integration with the West in general and the EU in particular after 1991, I'd be pretty interested to see how you manage to get the Finns voluntarily sign up with a Russia-led block ITTL.

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

Why a fictional branch when there are surviving Romanovs to this day?

Because I don't like the OTL surviving Romanovs much so I'll create ones of my own.

...there will be no one to exchange, Serbs in Croatian territory and Croats in Serbian territory will be more or less a thing of the past...

I'm not talking about a population exchange within Bosnia or a partition of Bosnia and Croatia along ethnic lines. I'm talking about a population exchange in which Serbs from Croatia proper (living in mostly Serb-controlled Rep. of Serbian Krajina) are exchanged with Croats in the whole Bosnia (living, I expect, in the Croatian-controlled parts of Bosnia). Thus, the borders will not really change, except for the fact that OTL's Bosnia and Herzegovina will be united with Serbia and Montenegro.

I'd be pretty interested to see how you manage to get the Finns voluntarily sign up with a Russia-led block ITTL.

Yes, I have no idea how to manage Finnish politics between 1991 and 1999. However, consider that in my TL the Whites fared better and were more united during the Russian Civil War and the Finns were explicitly and fully taking part in the war on their side. Also Finland was a Kingdom with Romanovs on the throne till the 1960's. In TTL, thus, the monarchy was only abolished in Finland under Soviet pressure, and centrists and center-right people remained emotionally attached to the Royal(-Imperial) family, even though they reverted to Russian Orthodxoy after the dethronement.

As I've said, I have no idea how to manage 1991-1999 in Finland, but in 1998-99 a "New White Movement" (or something of that sort - it's much more complicated) comes to power in Russia under Putin and the man who many Finns regarded as their King and who is mildly popular suddenly becomes the Emperor of Russia - possibly the first Russian head of state to be fluent in Finnish ever.

Ok, these are all a very big stretch, I know, but I'm more interested in a good and fresh story and, frankly, I've thought more about the internal politics of Russia and Ukraine than of Finland, probably because I'm not so knowledgeable in Finland.

 

[Angel Heart]

... in the Yugoslav wars and in Bosnia in particular.

It may be my personal bias but I think that in the Bosnian War the Serbs got by far the best outcome. After the war the Republika Srpska had minus the membership in various international organisations, de facto almost all characteristics of an independent state.

2.NATO is somehow involved but its involvement ends in some sort of fiasco, somewhere on the scale between Vietnam and Iraq.

Theoretically possible but there is one problem: Sloba and the gang who ruled back then were only interested in power and their most benevolent we Serbs were only a bunch of useful idiots to them. Even a Vietnam style victory over NATO would have turned Serbia into a post-apocalyptic wasteland and as we know from biology a parasite can't survive without its host.

4.Bosnia unites with Serbia and Montenegro in the mid-2000's having with Croatia (a) a stable peace, (b) mutually recognised borders, and (c) lucrative trade relations.

Alternatively you can make Abdić avoid surrendering his presidency to Izetbegović and maybe make BiH remain in a rump-Yugoslavia along with Serbia and Montenegro.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

The only thing is, how do you get Abdic to become president of Bosnia instead of Izetbegovic.

For one thing, we do need someone other than Sloba to be the president of Yugoslavia when this happens. I could think of Draskovic (because he's probably the sanest politician) as the only solution.