Hello everyone! I have a challenge for you. Make Kaliningrad go independent following the collapse of the USSR while still being Russia majority, and being part of the russian SFSR prior to that.
AHC: Make Kaliningrad become independent following the collapse of the USSR while still being Russian majority
- Thread starter Angel Grace
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This was brought up in a related question I asked.
Basically, Kaliningrad can't be split off the same way as the SSRs because it's a plain territory of the RSFSR, and Russia's ASSRs cant secede even via legal terms (of which Chechnya only did via force of arms for a short while). That said, there are a few ways for it to become independent, most of which would fail the challenge, admittedly.
- Becoming an SSR in some way, which is kind of difficult once the German population is expelled. What ethnicity is supposed to be represented? Maybe a Jewish SSR as per a suggestion I once saw, but Israel would almost certainly be the favoured option over staying in the lands of a country that tried to eradicate them, not to mention Stalin would much rather stick them in god-knows-where, otherwise known as the Jewish Autonomous Oblast as per OTL.
- Direct rule from Moscow as per @garabik 's suggestion. Could lead to a variety of outcomes, from a pro-European to pro-Russian country, or rump USSR led by Gorbachev or the coup plotters.
- Warlord option, as per @Lalli , likely the commander of the Baltic Fleet.
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An all-union territory could be interesting if coupled with the Gorbachev Union State proposal with a federal capital In Minsk (This is what was signed in November 91 iirc). That way when it falls the rule would come back to Belarus, which probably could better handle 700,000 Russians than most other countries (also Belarusian were 10% of the population for most of the soviet era)
and if it doesn’t it may become independent
Is it at all feasible to have a rump Soviet state in Kaliningrad, formed by military hardliners who countersecede when the RSFSR leaves the USSR?
Maybe, if the local garrison and Baltic Fleet sides with them? Russia would have to either go amphibious via St. Petersburg to regain it, or beg for Lithuania to grant access to it. If the latter is achieved, however, the hardliners could lose in a short but bloody conflict. Their best option would, ironically, be to hope that Lithuania is too paranoid to let Russian forces through in case they might consider 'reintegrating' Lithuanian back into Russia.
Whilst the vast majority of the population of Kaliningrad are Russian (although some are from ex Soviet countries rather than Russia itself) there is a normal rollover of generations like anywhere else and younger Kaliningraders know nothing other than being a Baltic country with Poland and Lithuania next door and living no more than a few kilometres from those borders. Whilst they will retain cultural ties with Russia, much as Canada, New Zealand and even the United States do with Britain, they will drift from the ‘home’ world perception. Not yet, but in a few generations, there is a real possibility of them seeking a true independence alongside their actual neighbours. A real change to accelerate that would be a broken Russia being unable to afford a meaningful Baltic Fleet which is the major Russian presence in Kaliningrad. Once, God willing, the present lunacy in Ukraine ends it would be wise to make the Kaliningrad border as open as possible to integrate the Kaliningraders into Baltic society. But, in an alternate history thread, there is no convincing short cut. One might look to the failures of Argentina to woo the Falkland Islanders and the Spanish with Gibraltar. Closed borders reinforce separateness.