AHC: Latin America set up for success

[odieluck]

Tl;dr: What changes in Spain’s history would need to take place before 1492 as well as what changes in its style of colonization in order for its colonies to be set up for success similar to Britain’s settler colonies

I would like to make a distinction at the beginning of this scenario between the 100% extraction based colonies in the Caribbean and colonies based in the mainland of the americas. I distinguish between these two categories because I believe that every colony that is purely based on extraction will end up economically disadvantaged as a result, no matter which country colonized it initially.
With that out of the way, onto my main scenario:

My desired outcome is a Latin America that reaches a similar level of potential that the United States and Canada reached in their histories.

This is not a new topic of discussion but I seek to dig a bit deeper:

Usually when this is talked about the discussion centers around the reasons why Latin America is poorer and more unstable than British settler colonies such as the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The reasons for this vary depending on who you ask and are still up for debate, but some of the reasons commonly given include:

• The Spanish essentially created a replica of the feudal system in the New World with the establishment of the encomienda system, and this in turn created a wealthy elite in Latin American society which was the base of economic and political power, rather than a more egalitarian society of small landowners as in the American north
• No existing democratic institutions upon independence whereas British colonies had their own forms of limited democracy such as the House of Burgesses in Virginia and other local councils
• A mercantilist trade policy that forbade each colony from trading with each other let alone with foreign countries, only being allowed to do business with spain directly, thus keeping their economies stuck in the primary sector
• Less settlers sent from Europe, with Spain being picky about who they sent over, compared to the British who had the opposite mindset
• Little encouragement of education or development of any kind, with examples such as the expulsion of the Jesuits

The issues are normally identified but the PODs aren't usually identified.
Essentially the issues are that Spanish (and Portuguese since Brazil is part of Latin America and most of these apply to it as well) treated their colonies with a short term mindset that set these countries up for failure once they became independent, and one that that also meant that Spain didn’t have much going for itself once it lot its colonies.
I don’t think Latin America was destined to be poor and unstable, but it’s clear a few things would have to change in history for it to have turned out differently.
The reasons listed above are largely the result of Spain's own attitudes it held when it initially conquered these areas and set up societies in its own image. What would it have taken in Spain's history to have developed a society at home which was conducive to successful settler colonies? An earlier Reconquista? A more powerful merchant class? Most likely POD? Are there any faulty premises of mine? Even if you think that Latin America would have always ended up poorer than the US and Canada, surely there is still a timeline where it ends up better off than where it is today.

 

[Siberian Tiger]

 

[minhow]

Another whatifalthist video had Brazil as a superpower, it happened because it had no atlantic slave trade, removing slavery fron Brazil would be a great thing.

 

[Diego]

There was one Latin American country that was developed, it is Argentina, their GDP in 1900 was equal to the GDP of the rest of Latin America. It would be more productive to look there and find answer of why it developed in first place, why everything went south, and if it is possible to replicate the same conditions around Latin America.

No existing democratic institutions upon independence whereas British colonies had their own forms of limited democracy such as the House of Burgesses in Virginia and other local councils

Well, there were city/local councils in Latin America, that is something.

Less settlers sent from Europe, with Spain being picky about who they sent over, compared to the British who had the opposite mindset

The quantity of people that went to the temperate regions of North America is heavily dwarfed by the quantity of people that went to the tropical and subtropical colonies. It just happens that people in the tropics died in droves compared to New England for example.

Little encouragement of education or development of any kind, with examples such as the expulsion of the Jesuits

Well there were even universities in Spanish America, so there was at least some encouragement to education.

 

[Nivek]

Tl;dr: What changes in Spain’s history would need to take place before 1492 as well as what changes in its style of colonization in order for its colonies to be set up for success similar to Britain’s settler colonies

I would like to make a distinction at the beginning of this scenario between the 100% extraction based colonies in the Caribbean and colonies based in the mainland of the americas. I distinguish between these two categories because I believe that every colony that is purely based on extraction will end up economically disadvantaged as a result, no matter which country colonized it initially.
With that out of the way, onto my main scenario:

My desired outcome is a Latin America that reaches a similar level of potential that the United States and Canada reached in their histories.

This is not a new topic of discussion but I seek to dig a bit deeper:

Usually when this is talked about the discussion centers around the reasons why Latin America is poorer and more unstable than British settler colonies such as the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The reasons for this vary depending on who you ask and are still up for debate, but some of the reasons commonly given include:

• The Spanish essentially created a replica of the feudal system in the New World with the establishment of the encomienda system, and this in turn created a wealthy elite in Latin American society which was the base of economic and political power, rather than a more egalitarian society of small landowners as in the American north
• No existing democratic institutions upon independence whereas British colonies had their own forms of limited democracy such as the House of Burgesses in Virginia and other local councils
• A mercantilist trade policy that forbade each colony from trading with each other let alone with foreign countries, only being allowed to do business with spain directly, thus keeping their economies stuck in the primary sector
• Less settlers sent from Europe, with Spain being picky about who they sent over, compared to the British who had the opposite mindset
• Little encouragement of education or development of any kind, with examples such as the expulsion of the Jesuits

The issues are normally identified but the PODs aren't usually identified.
Essentially the issues are that Spanish (and Portuguese since Brazil is part of Latin America and most of these apply to it as well) treated their colonies with a short term mindset that set these countries up for failure once they became independent, and one that that also meant that Spain didn’t have much going for itself once it lot its colonies.
I don’t think Latin America was destined to be poor and unstable, but it’s clear a few things would have to change in history for it to have turned out differently.
The reasons listed above are largely the result of Spain's own attitudes it held when it initially conquered these areas and set up societies in its own image. What would it have taken in Spain's history to have developed a society at home which was conducive to successful settler colonies? An earlier Reconquista? A more powerful merchant class? Most likely POD? Are there any faulty premises of mine? Even if you think that Latin America would have always ended up poorer than the US and Canada, surely there is still a timeline where it ends up better off than where it is today.

An Advice, take an history book in spanish and google translated, we've all of that, heck even bolivar wanted a tricameral system to have very advance balanced and checks but local elites say no

 

[Aluma]

Is Brazil being included or are we just talking about Spanish America? I mean Im fine with it either way but the tags have Portuguese Empire on it and another person mentioned my country so I wanna know
My own input is that slavery did indeed screw us big time, but we absolutely had democratic institutions after independence

 

[odieluck]

An Advice, take an history book in spanish and google translated, we've all of that, heck even bolivar wanted a tricameral system to have very advance balanced and checks but local elites say no

Exactly, there would have needed to be a system in which there would be no elites to say no, there would have needed to be a larger merchant class to have sway and form the basis of an electorate that wants stability over everything else, to grow their businesses, and by doing so expand the middle class. One of the chambers in Bolivar’s tripartite system would have been hereditary because he knew that the local elites had to be catered to. That was a smart set up, but one that he never got to put in place, and the circumstances should have been different in the first place anyways.

 

[Viking25]

Is Brazil being included or are we just talking about Spanish America? I mean Im fine with it either way but the tags have Portuguese Empire on it and another person mentioned my country so I wanna know
My own input is that slavery did indeed screw us big time, but we absolutely had democratic institutions after independence

TBF this site also seems to genuinely agree that the CSA could have become a pretty developed nation and theirs that one TL where they become an industrialised power house off the back of slavery. So it doesn't strike me as to farfetched that Brazil could potentially do that same(Though of course "CSA but Portuguese" isn't the only path forward for Brazil)

 

[odieluck]

Is Brazil being included or are we just talking about Spanish America? I mean Im fine with it either way but the tags have Portuguese Empire on it and another person mentioned my country so I wanna know
My own input is that slavery did indeed screw us big time, but we absolutely had democratic institutions after independence

Brazil is absolutely being included, although it is a little different, given the setup of a constitutional monarchy. What makes it different from other countries in the region was the continuity from the Portuguese monarchy to its own. I think this have Brazil the most potential for stability in the long run, but the problem was that once the interests of the aristocracy were challenged with the abolition of slavery (even though it was relatively very late!) they quickly acted to bring in a new regime. This shows how there were still structural problems with the sheer influence of a small class of people on the country’s political future from the very start. What I am asking for is a POD or a few that prevents this aristocracy along with the military from being dominant enough to overthrow the government in the first place.

 

[odieluck]

TBF this site also seems to genuinely agree that the CSA could have become a pretty developed nation and theirs that one TL where they become an industrialised power house off the back of slavery. So it doesn't strike me as to farfetched that Brazil could potentially do that same(Though of course "CSA but Portuguese" isn't the only path forward for Brazil)

Yes, that’s a potential way forward, but obviously it shouldn’t be off the back of slavery, because this is a TL where people are better off in some way. Furthermore it isn’t necessarily about a way forward starting in the early 1800s, it’s more so about a (realistic) way forward starting in the 1600s that leads Brazil as well as Spanish speaking Latin America down a path more similar to the United States or Canada

 

[Viking25]

Yes, that’s a potential way forward, but obviously it shouldn’t be off the back of slavery, because this is a TL where people are better off in some way. Furthermore it isn’t necessarily about a way forward starting in the early 1800s, it’s more so about a (realistic) way forward starting in the 1600s that leads Brazil as well as Spanish speaking Latin America down a path more similar to the United States or Canada

Ah I see your point. Kinda cliche but maybe the monarchy survives in Brazil through Pedro producing a son or something. Not sure if by itself is enough to make the countries living standards on par with America but its a good start.

 

[Aluma]

Brazil is absolutely being included, although it is a little different, given the setup of a constitutional monarchy. What makes it different from other countries in the region was the continuity from the Portuguese monarchy to its own. I think this have Brazil the most potential for stability in the long run, but the problem was that once the interests of the aristocracy were challenged with the abolition of slavery (even though it was relatively very late!) they quickly acted to bring in a new regime. This shows how there were still structural problems with the sheer influence of a small class of people on the country’s political future from the very start. What I am asking for is a POD or a few that prevents this aristocracy along with the military from being dominant enough to overthrow the government in the first place.

I agree with everything you said
I think regarding Brazil this coup could have failed forcing the elites to accept the new status quo, but thats just one country out of many

For a POD that truly changes the whole Latin America for the better, like you said, you need something to destroy the old land aristocratic class

Perhaps if a few more rebellions succeeded? Like everyone thinks of Gran-Colombia or sometimes very rarely of Tupac Amaru II succeeding but perhaps a combination would be the way to go? Like dont get me wrong they would still be vulnerable to military caudillos but if the european power was even more reduced in Latin America then they'd facing much less pressure from a external threats

Like Bolivar for exanple wouldnt have to fight so hard to keep it all together for fear of a spanish counter-attack

This could give Latin American countries(Brazil included) more breathing space to focus inwards and create a more solid institutional balance

 

[odieluck]

For a POD that truly changes the whole Latin America for the better, like you said, you need something to destroy the old land aristocratic class

Yes, by decreasing favorability, either destroy it from the start, provide some counterbalancing force from the start (like the north in the US), or destroy it in some event afterwards. Given how unlikely it would have been to have not had slavery from the start, I think the first situation is implausible. The second one I could kinda see, but I don’t know how, the example of the north is of people coming over to set up small farms and towns, which grew into cities and industry, which counterbalanced the south’s plantation economy and eventually defeated it, and there has to be a more widely available mechanism for that to happen that Spain or Portugal would allow, I’m not sure what it would be though, but it would have to involve giving creoles more rights to participate in governance than OTL. Finally, the third option might involve some reformist leader confiscating land and redistributing it, which is risky, but probably worthwhile if the government could come out unscathed in the end (big if).

 

[Viking25]

The reasons listed above are largely the result of Spain's own attitudes it held when it initially conquered these areas and set up societies in its own image. What would it have taken in Spain's history to have developed a society at home which was conducive to successful settler colonies? An earlier Reconquista? A more powerful merchant class? Most likely POD? Are there any faulty premises of mine? Even if you think that Latin America would have always ended up poorer than the US and Canada, surely there is still a timeline where it ends up better off than where it is today.

TBF short term profits was basically what the English and French were after as well and it's only by accident that they got the shit parts of America that didn't have literal mountains of silver lying around which incentives that short term behaviour. Of course alot of this is because the Spanish rolled a nat 20 and conquered both the massive indigenous empires with 50 guys or whatever(Spain used up all its luck in the 1500s). This is a long shot but maybe the Spanish would be a bit more willing to invest in the long term growth of its colonies if the Aztecs or Incas took longer to fully conquer and so the Spanish had to send in more settlers, allow the colonies to trade with each other etc.

 

[odieluck]

TBF short term profits was basically what the English and French were after as well and it's only by accident that they got the shit parts of Latin America that didn't have literal mountains of silver lying around which incentives that short term behaviour. Of course alot of this is because the Spanish rolled a nat 20 and conquered both the massive indigenous empires with 50 guys or whatever(Spain used up all its luck in the 1500s). This is a long shot but maybe the Spanish would be a bit more willing to invest in the long term growth of its colonies if the Aztecs or Incas took longer to fully conquer and so the Spanish had to send in more settlers, allow the colonies to trade with each other etc.

You’re right you’d have to be above average colonizer to leave a solid basis for another nation state when there is so much to take and you don’t have to do much building to get what you want. Apart from changing geography to make it less… abundant, a long war with the native peoples makes it more possible for that to occur. But how would that be made possible? Maybe instead of there being an Aztec and Inca the Spanish encounter a fractured mesoamerica and Andes with multiple civilizations they have to take over instead of just decapitating the two big regional players. It took Spain a bit longer to finish off all of the maya, so maybe you take something like that and add some other things on top to make it more difficult to conquer. Any other conditions to make that happen?

 

[Viking25]

You’re right you’d have to be above average colonizer to leave a solid basis for another nation state when there is so much to take and you don’t have to do much building to get what you want. Apart from changing geography to make it less… abundant, a long war with the native peoples makes it more possible for that to occur. But how would that be made possible? Maybe instead of there being an Aztec and Inca the Spanish encounter a fractured mesoamerica and Andes with multiples civilizations they have to take over instead of just decapitating the two big regional players. It took Spain a bit longer to finish off all of the maya, so maybe you take something like that and add some other things on top to make it more difficult to conquer. Any other conditions to make that happen?

I guess maybe the Aztecs could themselves be wiped out by one of their rebelling vassals(They weren't exactly popular) before the Spanish ever show up with Mexico going back to being a patchwork of native Kingdoms. Not sure how likely that is though.

 

[Aluma]

Oh so pre-conquest PODs are valid?

Because if thats the case the ideal for me would simply be for a native brazilian civilisation to pop up from one of the tribes that didnt eat people and achieve industrialization long before the europeans ever figure out how to make caravels, in fact that was the first TL I wanted to make here and the whole Egypt thing was a distraction...

But! I think thats cheating

I think the best case scenario using the OTL players would be for a Spain led solely by Isabella of Castille to crush Portugal before they popularized the african slave trade, thus getting all of Latin America under the control of a Spain whose Crown is pro-indigenous

With enough luck the Aztecs would be overthrown by their vassals, the arrival of the spanish would butterfly away the Incas commiting genocide against the Canar and Better!Spain's expansion into the Americas would be mostly focused on South America around the La Plata river and perhaps the gold mines in Minas Gerais without the portuguese competition... which might also be a TL I wanna make >.>

 

[Oda]

The best success South and Central America can have is just having Europeans not colonised it in the first place

Oh so pre-conquest PODs are valid?

Because if thats the case the ideal for me would simply be for a native brazilian civilisation to pop up from one of the tribes that didnt eat people and achieve industrialization long before the europeans ever figure out how to make caravels, in fact that was the first TL I wanted to make here and the whole Egypt thing was a distraction...

But! I think thats cheating

I think the best case scenario using the OTL players would be for a Spain led solely by Isabella of Castille to crush Portugal before they popularized the african slave trade, thus getting all of Latin America under the control of a Spain whose Crown is pro-indigenous

With enough luck the Aztecs would be overthrown by their vassals, the arrival of the spanish would butterfly away the Incas commiting genocide against the Canar and Better!Spain's expansion into the Americas would be mostly focused on South America around the La Plata river and perhaps the gold mines in Minas Gerais without the portuguese competition... which might also be a TL I wanna make >.>

There’s a native Amazonian civilisation

they got wiped out by european diseases before the Europeans step foot in the rainforest

 

[Aluma]

There’s a native Amazonian civilisation

they got wiped out by european diseases before the Europeans step foot in the rainforest

Im aware, but we dont know how they were like and they certainly didnt achieve modernity before the europeans

 

[Fabius Maximus]

AIUI part of the problem was that economic theory, such as it was in the 16th century, was pretty zero-sum, and hence tended to discourage investment in the colonies. If you can instead popularise the idea that having wealthy colonies can form the basis for a mutually-beneficial trade, and/or make the imperial government directly tax the colonies more rather than simply using them as sources of raw materials, you could encourage more investment in infrastructure and civil society, leaving the colonies in a better place once they become independent.