AHC: Japanese-Spanish War over the Philippines
- Thread starter Westphalian
- Start date
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
...why is a German-Spanish war more likely?
La Rouge Beret, I am curious as to why you think this is the case.
Germany has much more to lose from alienating Spain in a war than than Japan or the US do.
Spain was a factor, albeit a small one, in Europe. But it was important to Germany for economic and strategic reasons as it was on the other side of France. Also, conservative factions in Spain were fairly pro-German.
Warring against Spain's Catholic Empire probably would not go over well with Germany's Austro-Hungarian ally either, or with the Zentrum party for that matter.
Purchasing Spanish territories after the Span-Am war was one thing, but a war of conquest against Spanis colonies is quite another. France would also be quite edgy about the war spreading to Africa too.
La Rouge Beret, I am curious as to why you think this is the case.
Germany has much more to lose from alienating Spain in a war than than Japan or the US do.
Spain was a factor, albeit a small one, in Europe. But it was important to Germany for economic and strategic reasons as it was on the other side of France. Also, conservative factions in Spain were fairly pro-German.
Warring against Spain's Catholic Empire probably would not go over well with Germany's Austro-Hungarian ally either, or with the Zentrum party for that matter.
Purchasing Spanish territories after the Span-Am war was one thing, but a war of conquest against Spanis colonies is quite another. France would also be quite edgy about the war spreading to Africa too.
What about 1898. Could Japan have used the Spsnish-American War to declare war on Spain and taken the Philippines themselves? Could the Japanese navy of 1898 handled the Spanish force at Manilia? Can't imagine the US caring a whole lot because the real focus of US interest was Cuba anyway - and in retrospect, having the Phillipines and Guam just complicated later US logistics and war planning.
deathscompanion1
Banned
The Germans also had forces and the region, it took the British to make them back down, I can't see them doing the same in this situation German Philippines would be interesting.
A small undersea outcropping of rocks could have defeated the Spanish Navy. The Spanish Navy (as far as I can tell) didn't win a single decisive naval battle in the entire 19th century! Not at Trafalgar (1805). Not in the Chicha Islands War (1865). And not in the S-A War (1898).
It would be a quick but bloody battle. On paper the Spanish appear to have the upper hand; (Slightly Faster, Armored Cruisers vs. slightly slower Japanese Light and Protected Cruisers) but if you look closer, the Spanish fleet was not armed with quick firing guns, the main medium gun the 5.5" could fire at about 2 rounds a minute, the Japanese had quick firing 4.7" and 6". which, If we look at historical performances, gives them the same advantage against Spain that they had against the Chinese one to two years earlier. Though I'm not sure if Admiral Itoh would retain command of the Japanese fleet though, since historically he was promoted to the general staff after the war against China was over.
While I do think the Japanese would have been victorious, what I don't think will happen is that the Japanese suffer as few casualties as they did when they fought the Chinese. I fully expect at least 25-50% of the Japanese squadron to be sunk or crippled by the time the last Spanish ship is sunk, surrendered, or fled.
Could Japan have also have got Guam out of the Treaty?
This is my Idea why not have an independent state north of the philippines that is able to repel the Spanish from its territories just like Maguindanao and Sulu, this state would be likely to ally with Japan and Spain's enemies and later cause a war with Spain with Japan perhaps.
If PoD happens in 1898, Japan would win vs Spain. The Japanese Navy is just too large and too advanced compared to Spain. By 1898, local rebels would be in total control of Philippines much like in OTL.
Japan wins the naval war but recognize Philippines as a protectorate. Too many Filipino diplomats already entrenched in the Japanese Bureaucracy by 1898 to colonize it at this time.
German acquisition also is possible but with same result as Japan. Win vs Spanish navy and let the local rebels be under German protection. No need for transfer of Army to islands just selling of arms to the rebels.
Both results above drives down the cost and is the best return of investment for both Great Powers. Plus, the local rebels are cordial or have very positive relations with both either Germany or Japan in OTL.
katchen
Banned
Japan can start out in 1898 (or 1896) declaring a protectorate over the Philippines and initially working with the Aguinaldo government. Japan started out with a protectorate over Korea in 1905. But 5 years later, Japan annexed Korea outright and the other world powers let out not a pep. And the Japanese are likely to follow the same step by step colonization strategy with the Philippines.
At this point in time, the Philippines has only 8 million people while Korea has 12 million people (and North Borneo and Sarawak have half a million people apiece). Japan has 42 million people. Kasimiguex, given the Philippines population density and climate, will the Philippines be an attractive place for Japanese to settle in do you think? Outcomes will be very different if Philipines attract a lot of Japanese farmers than if Philippines does not attract Japanese farmers.
At this point in time, the Philippines has only 8 million people while Korea has 12 million people (and North Borneo and Sarawak have half a million people apiece). Japan has 42 million people. Kasimiguex, given the Philippines population density and climate, will the Philippines be an attractive place for Japanese to settle in do you think? Outcomes will be very different if Philipines attract a lot of Japanese farmers than if Philippines does not attract Japanese farmers.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
The population will be far numerous for Japanese colonization to take place, but if there are other places where Filipino settlers can migrate within the Japanese overseas territories, then that can be doable.
Just the opposite. People of Japanese Ancestry dominated 1/3 of the Philippines retail trade by 1935 in the OTL.
katchen
Banned
By the 1920s, the Japanese were requiring Koreans to speak Japanese (their children had already learned Japanese) and take Japanese names. Why wouldn't they do that in the Philippines? 
Of all the forms of 19th and 20th Century colonzation the Japanese may have been the most thorough and ruthless
Of all the forms of 19th and 20th Century colonzation the Japanese may have been the most thorough and ruthless
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
I'm really impressed with your knowledge of naval forces, Texian
What are some of your recommended sources for making detailed comparisons like this:
I have only run across occasional snippets comparing fleet order of battle in the 19th and early 20th century, without a satisfactory comprehensive reference.
The "best" reference I have is fairly inadequate. There's a "naval annual" I cannot recall who published it, that I've seen some editions of dating to a couple different years in the 1890s and the teens. However, they are huge pdfs that are unsearchable, and hence more difficult to navigate even than paper books. Do you have any recommendations for general naval order of battle references in the post-ACW, pre-WWI era?
What are some of your recommended sources for making detailed comparisons like this:
I have only run across occasional snippets comparing fleet order of battle in the 19th and early 20th century, without a satisfactory comprehensive reference.
The "best" reference I have is fairly inadequate. There's a "naval annual" I cannot recall who published it, that I've seen some editions of dating to a couple different years in the 1890s and the teens. However, they are huge pdfs that are unsearchable, and hence more difficult to navigate even than paper books. Do you have any recommendations for general naval order of battle references in the post-ACW, pre-WWI era?
don't be...
The powers of Google-fu serve me well. This is my source. They used a book called "Jane's Fighting Ships" I can't find a copy cheap though. If you find a good (free) source for this please let me know.
That being said...
I don't think there is going to be a blue-book for this kind of thing. Good all round research of the subject works the best. Primary sources from crew members during a similar conflict, in a similar time, in a similar location etc. For example with this topic: Analyzing the performance of all four fleets, The Japanese and Spanish but also the American and Chinese Fleet. Why did each navy win or lose the engagement they were involved in? How well does the ATL fleet compare to the OTL. For example: The US fleet struck several mines when entering Manila harbor, but due to the depth of the mines and draught of the American ships, it didn't cause any damage. So we will need to check to see if the Japanese ships had the same or similar draught.
Hope that helps!
The powers of Google-fu serve me well.
This is my source. They used a book called "Jane's Fighting Ships" I can't find a copy cheap though. If you find a good (free) source for this please let me know.That being said...
I don't think there is going to be a blue-book for this kind of thing. Good all round research of the subject works the best. Primary sources from crew members during a similar conflict, in a similar time, in a similar location etc. For example with this topic: Analyzing the performance of all four fleets, The Japanese and Spanish but also the American and Chinese Fleet. Why did each navy win or lose the engagement they were involved in? How well does the ATL fleet compare to the OTL. For example: The US fleet struck several mines when entering Manila harbor, but due to the depth of the mines and draught of the American ships, it didn't cause any damage. So we will need to check to see if the Japanese ships had the same or similar draught.
Hope that helps!
Check out BigBadBattleships ( http://www.cityofart.net/bship/site_nav.html )
I've found it an incredibly helpful resource for the navies of this time period. It doesn't have a specific section for orders of battle but you can put one together quite easily from the individual ships histories and the overall review of that country's fleet.
I agree with Texian that Japan would most likely win the naval war but they would come away from it with a seriously bloody nose. The balance of power between the two is close enough that luck might be the deciding factor. In this case the Philippines being distant from Spain could help because they might take the time to get their ships into somewhat decent condition.
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