Is there any chance that between 1895 (the end of the First Sino-Japanese War that gave Taiwan to Japan) and spring of 1898 (the start of the Spanish-American War that gave the Philippines to the USA) a war between Spain and Japan might have started that ended with the local defeat of Spain and the acquisition of the Philippines by Japan?
AHC: Japanese-Spanish War over the Philippines
- Thread starter Westphalian
- Start date
There was in incident in 1896 involving a Japanese ship the Spanish requisitioned in Manila. I don't remember details but it could have easily spiraled out, as the Spanish authorities were accusing the Japanese of arming the Katipunan.
The thing however was that Japan was 1) full of frustrated nationalistic feeling caused by the Triple Intervention 2) very wary of conflict with a European power (even if minor) exactly as a consequence of that very Triple Intervention.
IOTL, this led to Tokyo defusing the situation, but any awkward move on the Spanish part could change that attitude.
The thing however was that Japan was 1) full of frustrated nationalistic feeling caused by the Triple Intervention 2) very wary of conflict with a European power (even if minor) exactly as a consequence of that very Triple Intervention.
IOTL, this led to Tokyo defusing the situation, but any awkward move on the Spanish part could change that attitude.
Spain still had some credible fighting power and Japan was not yet a mature naval power and had just barely beaten the Chinese navy in 1895 with the flagship Mikasa lucky to have survived the battle. Still, there is no denying that the Japanese have the great advantage of distance: it would have taken weeks to for the Spanish ships to steam around Africa and reach the Philippines by which time Manila might well have fallen.
If any other European power so much as threatened to interven however, Japan would have to call of the war or recall the navy to defend its home waters.
All in all, I'm picturing a Japanese victory in such a scenario to look something like this: surprise the Spanish fleet in Manila, take the city and suffer somewhat in the countryside when they eventaully alienate the local rebels thereby drawing them into Spain's own guerilla war. The main Spanish fleet arrives a few weeks later and there is a battle which very nearly results in a Japanese defeat only to be rescued at the last minute by good tactics and gunnery. The Spanish manage to land a few resupply boats on the islands but it is not enough and they surrender. The Japanese take the Pacific islands and the possibly but not necessarily the Philippines depending on whether other European nations are willing to accept that resolution. Spain is associated with decline and other Western sources tout it as a display of that country's incompetence more than one of Japan's own prowess. Meanwhile, the Japanese celebrate it proudly and immediately begin bulding a stronger fleet to compensate for the deficiencies that were exposed in the war. Other European powers and the USA in particular do start to build larger Pacific fleets in order to deal with what is seen as a vanguard of future Japanese agression.
If any other European power so much as threatened to interven however, Japan would have to call of the war or recall the navy to defend its home waters.
All in all, I'm picturing a Japanese victory in such a scenario to look something like this: surprise the Spanish fleet in Manila, take the city and suffer somewhat in the countryside when they eventaully alienate the local rebels thereby drawing them into Spain's own guerilla war. The main Spanish fleet arrives a few weeks later and there is a battle which very nearly results in a Japanese defeat only to be rescued at the last minute by good tactics and gunnery. The Spanish manage to land a few resupply boats on the islands but it is not enough and they surrender. The Japanese take the Pacific islands and the possibly but not necessarily the Philippines depending on whether other European nations are willing to accept that resolution. Spain is associated with decline and other Western sources tout it as a display of that country's incompetence more than one of Japan's own prowess. Meanwhile, the Japanese celebrate it proudly and immediately begin bulding a stronger fleet to compensate for the deficiencies that were exposed in the war. Other European powers and the USA in particular do start to build larger Pacific fleets in order to deal with what is seen as a vanguard of future Japanese agression.
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
For Japan to even have a shot at taking the Philippines from Spain, it has to have a European ally. Preferably before 1894, because of the Sino-Japanese War.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
A simple PoD for delaying the Spanish-American War though: have the USS Maine not get blown up in Havana. That way, the US can't use it as a pretext to declare war on Spain. The PoD for the First Sino-Japanese War being butterflied away, that I do not know.
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
It would be interesting if Japan declared war on Spain over the Philippines right before the USA did so over Cuba.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
But tricky since the Japanese won't have a warship blown up in Manila Bay and blame Spain for it. The incident involving the Katipunan though on the other hand, would be a good substitute. However, the Japanese still need a strong ally to back them up. Britain would obviously be a good candidate.
Another additional thing that should be mentioned is: how to prevent the Triple Intervention from occurring. The key to that is to somehow stop the French, Germans and Russians from ganging up on Japan.
Another additional thing that should be mentioned is: how to prevent the Triple Intervention from occurring. The key to that is to somehow stop the French, Germans and Russians from ganging up on Japan.
I doubt the USA would be part of this.
What I like about this scenario is it's so hilariously full of bluffing and intimidation.
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
They're also going to war against Spain. What's to say for France and Germany to team up on the USA too?
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Or that incident between Spain and the USA before the American Civil War occurred. However, if you really want an earlier Japanese acquisition of the Philippines, why not have Spain undergo a much worse Carlist Wars? The Carlist Wars pretty much bankrupted Spain's economy.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
some reactions and options ---
There might not be any triple intervention in favor of Spain in the years 1896 and 1897. And, Tokyo might even have reason to think they could get away with fighting Spain without their intervention. Because the Russo-German-French coalition diplomatic was not based on all three powers being equally interested in the Far East or all three powers being innately hostile to Japanese expansion. Rather, the Russians were opposed to the Japanese gain of Port Arthur, and both Germany and France were seeking to gain favor with Russia. This all put Russia in a strong diplomatic position. The way it worked was Germany decided that it could be beneficial to cooperate with Russia on Far Eastern matters to direct their attention east, and possibly to create follow-on opportunities for themselves. Once the Germans were supporting the Russians, the French had to support the Russians to keep the new and untested Franco-Russian alliance credible.
However, in a conflict in the Philippines and Micronesia, Russia doesn't really care. France probably doesn't care because it was probably satiated with Indochina and was reluctant to have colonial matters distract from strength in Europe. Germany may not care either, especially as long as they are getting the Shandong concessions. Even if the Germans do cry foul, they would probably find out how little Russia or France cared to back them up in the Far East. Power projection as a solo venture would be difficult for Germany and a circumstance that Japan might think it could handle.
To answer the original post (and make some variants of it), I have a few ideas:
A) Japan gets a European ally early. It joins France's side in its war on China in 1884-1885. See this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Chinese_War
The Japanese get on the winning French side in the mid-1880s and get increased influence over a now nominally independent Korea.
When France also reaches out to Russia in the 1890s, Paris helps broker (and bribe relevant officials) for a Russo-Japanese compromise also. From that point on, Japan might feel secure enough to attack the Spanish in the Philippines if additional opportunity or provocation beckons.
So, while the 1896 incident might not happen precisely as in OTL, something could happen between the late 1880s through 1898, or if the Spanish-American war is butterflied away, something could happen in the early 20th century, leading to a Japanese attempt to beat the Spanish in the Philippines. Then of course, the interesting question becomes whether Japan succeeds, or if it has to back down or disgorge gains in the face of a Triple Intervention of Britain, Germany and America (or any two of the three).
B) Blaine beats Cleveland in 1892. The Blaine Administration is more sympathetic to the American expat run Hawaiian republic from 1893 on. Sometime between 1892 and 1896 a Hawaiian annexation treaty or strong protectorate is passed. Japan takes this as another humiliation, and feels pressure to exploit the incident with Spain in 1896 to beat a weak, unaligned opponent, in order to keep up with the Joneses. It probably gets away with it, and America in particular, gripped by an election and the Panic of 1893, will not have motive to oppose Japan in the western Pacific. The Democrats are likely favorites in 1896, and with their ideology and devotion to Louisiana sugar interests, they are less inclined to desire any Spanish sugar growing territory.
C) No Maine incident or Spanish-American War in 1898. However, other pressures still incline the McKinley administration to support Hawaiian annexation (the recent book "Pacific Gibraltar" http://www.amazon.com/Pacific-Gibra...=1367810433&sr=8-1&keywords=pacific+gibraltar
argues that the impetus for Hawaiian annexation, while time-coincident with the Spanish-American war, had independent causes and would have been likely even absent that war)
The annexation of Hawaii in 1898 or 99 does irritate the Japanese, whose interests there had grown over the previous decade. The humiliation of the Triple Intervention is now supplemented by the German acquisition of Tsingtao as well as the Hawaiian annexation. Japanese interest in the Spanish Pacific as a sphere of destiny. McKinley and TR, acknowledging recent history, are somewhat reluctant to offend Japan over western Pacific interests. Meanwhile, Japanese confidence in its own prestige rises as a result of its intervention in the Boxer rebellion and the good press the Japanese expedition receives. However, it also increases their anxieties about the fate of the Asia-Pacific. After 1902, Japan secures its position as Britain's ally. Britain intends this to be primarily aimed at Russia, but possibly Japan exploits its diplomatic coverage to tackle the Spanish in the Philippines anyway. Events within the Spanish empire in the Philippines or Caribbean may increase Tokyo's anxieties about losing out to other powers in the Philippines and Central Pacific, especially if the Cuban conflict drags on and US intervention begins to appear likely.
-- Interesting potential PoD.
There might not be any triple intervention in favor of Spain in the years 1896 and 1897. And, Tokyo might even have reason to think they could get away with fighting Spain without their intervention. Because the Russo-German-French coalition diplomatic was not based on all three powers being equally interested in the Far East or all three powers being innately hostile to Japanese expansion. Rather, the Russians were opposed to the Japanese gain of Port Arthur, and both Germany and France were seeking to gain favor with Russia. This all put Russia in a strong diplomatic position. The way it worked was Germany decided that it could be beneficial to cooperate with Russia on Far Eastern matters to direct their attention east, and possibly to create follow-on opportunities for themselves. Once the Germans were supporting the Russians, the French had to support the Russians to keep the new and untested Franco-Russian alliance credible.
However, in a conflict in the Philippines and Micronesia, Russia doesn't really care. France probably doesn't care because it was probably satiated with Indochina and was reluctant to have colonial matters distract from strength in Europe. Germany may not care either, especially as long as they are getting the Shandong concessions. Even if the Germans do cry foul, they would probably find out how little Russia or France cared to back them up in the Far East. Power projection as a solo venture would be difficult for Germany and a circumstance that Japan might think it could handle.
To answer the original post (and make some variants of it), I have a few ideas:
A) Japan gets a European ally early. It joins France's side in its war on China in 1884-1885. See this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Chinese_War
The Japanese get on the winning French side in the mid-1880s and get increased influence over a now nominally independent Korea.
When France also reaches out to Russia in the 1890s, Paris helps broker (and bribe relevant officials) for a Russo-Japanese compromise also. From that point on, Japan might feel secure enough to attack the Spanish in the Philippines if additional opportunity or provocation beckons.
So, while the 1896 incident might not happen precisely as in OTL, something could happen between the late 1880s through 1898, or if the Spanish-American war is butterflied away, something could happen in the early 20th century, leading to a Japanese attempt to beat the Spanish in the Philippines. Then of course, the interesting question becomes whether Japan succeeds, or if it has to back down or disgorge gains in the face of a Triple Intervention of Britain, Germany and America (or any two of the three).
B) Blaine beats Cleveland in 1892. The Blaine Administration is more sympathetic to the American expat run Hawaiian republic from 1893 on. Sometime between 1892 and 1896 a Hawaiian annexation treaty or strong protectorate is passed. Japan takes this as another humiliation, and feels pressure to exploit the incident with Spain in 1896 to beat a weak, unaligned opponent, in order to keep up with the Joneses. It probably gets away with it, and America in particular, gripped by an election and the Panic of 1893, will not have motive to oppose Japan in the western Pacific. The Democrats are likely favorites in 1896, and with their ideology and devotion to Louisiana sugar interests, they are less inclined to desire any Spanish sugar growing territory.
C) No Maine incident or Spanish-American War in 1898. However, other pressures still incline the McKinley administration to support Hawaiian annexation (the recent book "Pacific Gibraltar" http://www.amazon.com/Pacific-Gibra...=1367810433&sr=8-1&keywords=pacific+gibraltar
argues that the impetus for Hawaiian annexation, while time-coincident with the Spanish-American war, had independent causes and would have been likely even absent that war)
The annexation of Hawaii in 1898 or 99 does irritate the Japanese, whose interests there had grown over the previous decade. The humiliation of the Triple Intervention is now supplemented by the German acquisition of Tsingtao as well as the Hawaiian annexation. Japanese interest in the Spanish Pacific as a sphere of destiny. McKinley and TR, acknowledging recent history, are somewhat reluctant to offend Japan over western Pacific interests. Meanwhile, Japanese confidence in its own prestige rises as a result of its intervention in the Boxer rebellion and the good press the Japanese expedition receives. However, it also increases their anxieties about the fate of the Asia-Pacific. After 1902, Japan secures its position as Britain's ally. Britain intends this to be primarily aimed at Russia, but possibly Japan exploits its diplomatic coverage to tackle the Spanish in the Philippines anyway. Events within the Spanish empire in the Philippines or Caribbean may increase Tokyo's anxieties about losing out to other powers in the Philippines and Central Pacific, especially if the Cuban conflict drags on and US intervention begins to appear likely.
Wasn't Germany trying to get control of the islands? If they do, they lose it to Japan following the Great War. I know it's not directly from Spain, but it's more realistic. If Japan smashes the Spanish fleet in the 1890s, then the Russians won't take them so lightly if Japan and Russia go to war later on. It could have an impact on that possible war.
Personally I think a Spanish - German war for the Philippines is more likely and could add some fairly dramatic butterflies to the lead in to the Great War (if it still occurs).
Alternatively for a Japanese - Spanish war, if the POD is to be earlier would require Japan to be more outwards focused - which is difficult as they are modernising at the time. How you create that POD would be interesting.
Alternatively for a Japanese - Spanish war, if the POD is to be earlier would require Japan to be more outwards focused - which is difficult as they are modernising at the time. How you create that POD would be interesting.
If Germany gets the Philippines they do lose it in the great war but not necessarily to Japan.
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
The Philippines may end up as a LoN mandate, taken by either Britain or one of her Dominions. Australia managed to get several LoN mandate territories though.
Before and beyond 1894, Spain and her remaining colonies were practically an economic vassal of the British Empire, therefore, Japan being also a British ally, would not going to antagonize the British.
I would actually prefer if Luzon is detached from the Philippines due to a war, it was not even "really a part" of the Philippines to start with even its aristocracy have a different view of things which always conflicts the south, aside from that the Aristocracy of Luzon such as the Macabebe Scouts who maintain the Spanish rule in Luzon have an agreement with the Spanish.
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