AHC: Independent Philippines following the path of Meiji Japan

[Erizium]

By "following the path of Meiji Japan", I meant the wide-scale political, economic, societal, and industrial upheaval that benefitted the nation.

Would the Philippines manage to first free itself from Spain, and then catch up with the rest of the industrializing world to become a relatively powerful country when compared to its neighbors? What would the geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific look like with two island nations industrializing and catching up to the Europeans?

 

[power]

Would this be in the beginning of the 19th century? If so then i don't see The Philippines becoming independent. Local nobles and priests were too powerful and very much enjoyed the virtual autonomy that Spain was giving them. And aside from some creole, any revolution that early would not have enough support. No one aside from a few creole had any concept "Filipino Identity". If they do gain independence, Britain and The Netherlands are nearby and would likely take the place or put it in their sphere of influence. neither Spain nor The US had any interest in The Philippines industrializing so i don't see the British nor The Dutch being any different.

 

[Timaeus]

Would this be in the beginning of the 19th century? If so then i don't see The Philippines becoming independent. Local nobles and priests were too powerful and very much enjoyed the virtual autonomy that Spain was giving them. And aside from some creole, any revolution that early would not have enough support. No one aside from a few creole had any concept "Filipino Identity". If they do gain independence, Britain and The Netherlands are nearby and would likely take the place or put it in their sphere of influence. neither Spain nor The US had any interest in The Philippines industrializing so i don't see the British nor The Dutch being any different.

A Creole-led revolution in the early 1800s, given some lucky breaks, would have time enough to keep itself from getting crushed, and it would be considered an extension of the Latin American Wars of Independence. At the very least, it would be able to develop on its own instead of being directly under the foot of Spain or America. And this would be at least a couple of generations before the Meiji era.

 

[power]

A Creole-led revolution in the early 1800s, given some lucky breaks, would have time enough to keep itself from getting crushed, and it would be considered an extension of the Latin American Wars of Independence. At the very least, it would be able to develop on its own instead of being directly under the foot of Spain or America. And this would be at least a couple of generations before the Meiji era.

but if this was in the timeframe of the Latin American Wars of Independence then the creoles would not have enough support from the natives. it would be simple for the Spanish to raise a significant enough native force. Though yeah, if it gets lucky during and soon after the war then it can succeed. but for industrialization then there would likely be a rivalry between the Principalia and Friars against the central government. it would be a hindrance to industrialization... unless the central government are good at what they do that is...

Edit: also, the location of the islands would likely make it a target by other European powers. I do not see say, Britain, leaving an important and undeveloped (former) colony alone. at the very least they would want to exert their influence on it to make it work for them.

 

[Tredecimus]

Relatively powerful?

If everything goes right, the Philippines can become the hegemon of the Pacific, China the only potential challenger. Japan will forever play second/third fiddle.

But alas, it won't. An early independent Philippines will experience several social and cultural problem before it can even think of industrialization.

 

[Timaeus]

Relatively powerful?

If everything goes right, the Philippines can become the hegemon of the Pacific, China the only potential challenger. Japan will forever play second/third fiddle.

But alas, it won't. An early independent Philippines will experience several social and cultural problem before it can even think of industrialization.

It has the advantage of not having major powers naturally wanting it to be their bitch. Which is why the rest of Latin America went down the drain.

 

[Timaeus]

Edit: also, the location of the islands would likely make it a target by other European powers. I do not see say, Britain, leaving an important and undeveloped (former) colony alone. at the very least they would want to exert their influence on it to make it work for them.

Thailand and Japan had the same problem. I'm sure Britain would be satisfied with investment and a protectorate, especially if it serves as a counterweight against the Dutch.

 

[Timaeus]

By "following the path of Meiji Japan", I meant the wide-scale political, economic, societal, and industrial upheaval that benefitted the nation.

Would the Philippines manage to first free itself from Spain, and then catch up with the rest of the industrializing world to become a relatively powerful country when compared to its neighbors? What would the geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific look like with two island nations industrializing and catching up to the Europeans?

In general, the small population, lack of coal and oil, and the Catholic Church makes it hard.

However, diplomacy can help with the lack of coal and oil, perhaps aligning with the British against the Dutch to gain the eastern half of the Dutch East Indies. Religious reform (the secularization movement that characterizes the 19th century comes to mind) can help with the last part. The first one, though, guarantees that the Philippines may just end up playing the junior partner in an alliance with Japan. We won't exactly be a major power until the 20th century, but we could be a regional power.