AHC: Asian Industrial Revolution

So, I think we've made some progress in listing some nations that have great potential in becoming industrialized within the 19th century:
Mysore (Karnataka?)
Kerala (and/or Travancore)
Siam
Korea
Odisha
Japan (earlier than IOTL)
.....
I remember a timeline somewhere about the Taiping Republic becoming industrialized. Maybe Southern China included?
what other nations can we include? How about Persia?
----EDIT
ㄴsome people mentioned that Korea has a lot of resources but needs a mercantile(export-oriented lol) economy to experience an industrial revolution. Could Korea use the model of Colbertism for this? Or would another theme of mercantilism be more suitable?

Hyderabad too.

Karnataka and Kerala are modern names for the regions but the polities involved were Mysore (which extended over Karnataka and depneding on when the POD is may incorporate Northern Kerala too) and Travanacore (well and technically Cochin too in Kerala, though that was basically under Travancori or Dutch or Mysorean domination).

I'm not sure if Odisha had any strong regional power like the South Indians states did.
 
I'd say North India is still possible, if the Sikhs don't implode (which is admittedly very difficult to do). Maybe if a minor state like Sindh manages to get foreign support as an alternate 'in' to India?
 
I'd say North India is still possible, if the Sikhs don't implode (which is admittedly very difficult to do). Maybe if a minor state like Sindh manages to get foreign support as an alternate 'in' to India?
What should the POD be if a Sikhs were to industrialize?
Also, back to the question of Korea becoming industrialised. What if, during the Qing dynasty, the White Lotus Rebellion took much longer to subdue and the imperial court was too busy to care about Korea? would this help spur Korean industrialization?
 
Sure but shipping coal across the Channel/up the Rhine is different from sending it all the way around the Cape to India.
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My scenario was based on China/Japan, from coal mine to barges/coaster to final user. On the other hand, back in the coal era, where did UK get the coal for their coaling stations in India?
 
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My scenario was based on China/Japan, from coal mine to barges/coaster to final user. On the other hand, back in the coal era, where did UK get the coal for their coaling stations in India?

By the time you have a need for coaling stations you have working long distance steamships. Also with their existing surveying knowledge and background in mining geology, the British might have been able to start exploiting India coal- this advantage wouldn't be available to a newly industrialising Indian state.

For an early 19th C industrialisation of Indian states, however, they'd need coal shipped in and since steam engines weren't yet commonly used for ships, this'd have to be shipped in by sail. It's the feasibility of this that I'm wondering about.
 
For an early 19th C industrialisation of Indian states, however, they'd need coal shipped in and since steam engines weren't yet commonly used for ships, this'd have to be shipped in by sail. It's the feasibility of this that I'm wondering about.
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China would seem to be a good source, if there was none in India. Even in the pre-steam era, european ships were bringing back large amounts of pottery/cloth/brassware. India/China seem to have some industrialization.
 
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China would seem to be a good source, if there was none in India. Even in the pre-steam era, european ships were bringing back large amounts of pottery/cloth/brassware. India/China seem to have some industrialization.

India had a sophisticated network of cottage industries. However these, of course, used manual (or at most wind/water) power. An Artisanal economy that was pre-industrial but not enough to call it industrial.

Early 19th C China is a big place- in a pre-modern economy this means, first of all, actually getting a trade deal in China (not the easiest thing to do), transporting the coal to a port (along canals if you're lucky, otherwise it's preindustrial roads), sailing it all the way to India, unloading it at Indian ports and transporting it to it's final destination. Everyone seems to be handwaving the logistics of all this.

It isn't like the late 19th C where there's essentially a globalised world economy.
 

SunDeep

Banned
What should the POD be if a Sikhs were to industrialize?

6th Nov 1840- If the reputedly capable and astute crown prince Nau Nihal Singh had escaped death/assassination at the age of 19 on his return from his father's cremation, avoiding the political turmoil of the subsequent succession crisis which took place IOTL, and preventing the Dogras from effectively taking control of the royal court and the military- control which, with the Dogras' vested interest in carving out their own kingdom of Jammu & Kashmir as a British Princely State, is widely argued to have been the primary cause of the Khalsa Army's defeat in the 1st Anglo-Sikh War, and the Sikh Kingdom's eventual implosion.

And the Sikhs had real potential to be an Asian industrial power. I'm currently working on a timeline built around this very POD, and I've already acquired the research and made the calculations to back up this assertion. Prior to the 1st Anglo-Sikh War, the estimated total GDP of the Khalsa Raj stood at around 1,500 crore rupees, or around 1.86% of the world economy; roughly on a par with Spain, with a similar GDP per capita to contemporaries Japan and Russia- and a social system which promoted a far higher level of egalitarianism to boot, with civil liberties, public freedoms and equal opportunities which rivalled those of any of the world’s democratic republics at the time. This could be a key factor in the continued economic growth of the Sikh Raj, driving the acceleration of its economic growth and modernisation through the efforts of private industrialists and aspiring capitalists.
 
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Japan and Korea have been putting an emphasis upon education since the 1000s AD, and China almost two thousand years before them.

It wasn't education, it was the type of education.

To be clear, the Samguk Sagi records Taehak, which was established in 372 AD as a Confucian establishment within Goguryeo, as the first extant description of a Korean educational institution. However, the text also records that the Seogi was compiled by Go Heung, a Baekje scholar, in 375, suggesting that education had already been systemized within Korea to a certain degree decades before then. The Gwageo, which was a Korean counterpart of the civil service examinations in China, was also initially implemented within Silla in 788, although its initial use was generally limited to aristocrats, mostly due to the fact that it had employed an extremely restrictive class system.

The main issue with education is that globally speaking, it only affected the members of the upper class until the last century or so, as they were the only ones who had extensive access to texts, and everyone else was more concerned with other pressing issues. Giving other people an opportunity to learn would mitigate the significant gap, but would be essentially impossible to implement in East Asia due to the fact that Chinese characters required extensive education. In addition, they would require extensive social reforms in general, regardless of the country/region in question, which the aristocracy would be extremely hostile to in order to retain their influence over the people as a whole.

A number of people are just looking at sociopolitical factors without considering the basic resources available.

Resources can certainly provide aid a country that is attempting to undergo industrialization, but they can also serve as a major roadblock if they are not handled correctly. For example, the "Natural Resource Curse" illustrates how numerous countries that are currently in possession of a large supply of resources, many of them located within Africa, have failed to achieve continuous economic growth, mostly due to the lack of stable political and economic institutions. On the other hand, a significant number of countries with minimal resources have managed to develop significantly within the last half-century or so, as their institutions greatly facilitated high levels of economic growth in the long run. Granted, this theory was used to explain contemporary conditions, but the issues also generally tend to be viable for the scenario concerning this thread with a few tweaks.

In other words, numerous political and social changes are necessary in order for industrialization to be viable for a specific country. This involves granting significant autonomy to traders, although the government also has to remain politically stable in the long run for the state to eventually reap economic profits. In addition, resources also do not necessarily have to be available within the country in question as long as entities that are essentially in the form of corporations can carry out operations on a widespread scale, although this scenario also requires numerous significant changes, as the aristocracy would initially be wary of handing a significant amount of economic control over to traders.
 
Resources can certainly provide aid a country that is attempting to undergo industrialization, but they can also serve as a major roadblock if they are not handled correctly. For example, the "Natural Resource Curse" illustrates how numerous countries that are currently in possession of a large supply of resources, many of them located within Africa, have failed to achieve continuous economic growth, mostly due to the lack of stable political and economic institutions. On the other hand, a significant number of countries with minimal resources have managed to develop significantly within the last half-century or so, as their institutions greatly facilitated high levels of economic growth in the long run. Granted, this theory was used to explain contemporary conditions, but the issues also generally tend to be viable for the scenario concerning this thread with a few tweaks.

In other words, numerous political and social changes are necessary in order for industrialization to be viable for a specific country. This involves granting significant autonomy to traders, although the government also has to remain politically stable in the long run for the state to eventually reap economic profits. In addition, resources also do not necessarily have to be available within the country in question as long as entities that are essentially in the form of corporations can carry out operations on a widespread scale, although this scenario also requires numerous significant changes, as the aristocracy would initially be wary of handing a significant amount of economic control over to traders.

Yes, thank you, I understand. This still isn't relevant to my point which is that without the initially available resources you can't think of jump starting an early 19th C industrialisation process. There's no point having all the right socio-political factors if there's no coal to burn and no global trade network to bring it to you. i'm addressing the people who are saying "oh they can import coal".

I'm not sure if even in the late 19th C with access to a sophisticated globalised trade network Japan used imported coal for it's initial industrialisation.
 
Yes, thank you, I understand. This still isn't relevant to my point which is that without the initially available resources you can't think of jump starting an early 19th C industrialisation process. There's no point having all the right socio-political factors if there's no coal to burn and no global trade network to bring it to you. i'm addressing the people who are saying "oh they can import coal".

I'm not sure if even in the late 19th C with access to a sophisticated globalised trade network Japan used imported coal for it's initial industrialisation.
it seems this thread will sink down into oblivion unless democracy101 comes back and answers your question...:(
 
Even without democracy101, I think we should continue the conversation of what brings forth industrial revolutions- and how they could be grown in Asian societies.:(:eek::p
By now we have identified a number of geographical areas that have the suitable resources available at hand for industrialization. The next question will be, therefore, about the social aspect of industrialization- how would society be willing to industrialize? How would a merchant-based middle class grow? how long would it take to make the middle class grow enough to spark an Industrial revolution?
I think an important thing is this: even in Japan after the Meiji Ishin, industrialization was not spurred by a large group of people but rather was by a small band of western-educated aristocrats who thought they had the better idea of governing a country. The peasants were merely tools used to fuel industrialisation. (The more important factor was the samurai-based bureaucratic class that was willing to serve as a driving force for industrialisation. So we came back to the middle class question.)
 
There's some good-quality coal in Australia, exploited at least in more recent decades, so maybe from there?
so we would export coal from Australia, okay.
IOTL, where did Japan get its coal from? was it mined or was it imported?
 
A bit late, but I was busy with other things.

Yes, thank you, I understand. This still isn't relevant to my point which is that without the initially available resources you can't think of jump starting an early 19th C industrialisation process. There's no point having all the right socio-political factors if there's no coal to burn and no global trade network to bring it to you. i'm addressing the people who are saying "oh they can import coal".

I'm not sure if even in the late 19th C with access to a sophisticated globalised trade network Japan used imported coal for it's initial industrialisation.

I see. I think that we're in agreement here, then.

it seems this thread will sink down into oblivion unless democracy101 comes back and answers your question...:(

I didn't respond because Flocculencio's points were essentially in alignment with mine, so I didn't see the particular need to post again.

Even without democracy101, I think we should continue the conversation of what brings forth industrial revolutions- and how they could be grown in Asian societies.:(:eek::p
By now we have identified a number of geographical areas that have the suitable resources available at hand for industrialization. The next question will be, therefore, about the social aspect of industrialization- how would society be willing to industrialize? How would a merchant-based middle class grow? how long would it take to make the middle class grow enough to spark an Industrial revolution?
I think an important thing is this: even in Japan after the Meiji Ishin, industrialization was not spurred by a large group of people but rather was by a small band of western-educated aristocrats who thought they had the better idea of governing a country. The peasants were merely tools used to fuel industrialisation. (The more important factor was the samurai-based bureaucratic class that was willing to serve as a driving force for industrialisation. So we came back to the middle class question.)

Within East Asia, merchants would be heavily curtailed under Confucianism regardless of the situation (Japan was a relative exception, although this was partly due to its periphery status), and attempting to prevent this situation would essentially require ASB-levels of extensive changes, considering how the philosophy had been heavily entrenched for close to two millennia at the time. In addition, industrialization within Asia concerning any specific region would require much more than a few tweaks to the government, economy, or society, as England managed to tranform due to numerous collective conditions. To illustrate, I'll quote the relevant parts from another thread:

There were a significant amount of social factors present within Britain during the 18th century which eventually led to the Industrial Revolution, and many of them were generally not prevalent within China, regardless of the specific time period involved. The issues involved IOTL specifically focused on textiles, steam, and iron, although there were other ones, such as chemicals, and further technological developments occurred mostly due to the fact that the simultaneous main pressures involved forced policymakers and laborers to increase efficiency, so focusing on one factor at a time would have not provided the same outcome. Just focusing on steam does not address why or how it could be efficiently implemented on a widespread scale, specifically concerning ships, and would not thoroughly address other societal issues that need to be tackled in the long run.

I agree, along with the fact that this situation also explains comparative advantages, as the colonies were more suited to producing raw materials, while it was more profitable for Britain to manufacture products, so both regions began to specialize in a specific area concerning production. However, diminishing marginal returns also need to be considered, as further increases concerning inputs will eventually lead to smaller increases in outputs. As a result, although this might have led to significant developments when the policies were first implemented, they gradually leveled out after a while, so other changes would have eventually been necessary in order to counter demand over time.

. . . I simplified many of my initial assumptions, and some of them didn't portray an accurate picture of the situation as a whole because I attempted to limit the issues to the differences between Britain and China, so I might have significantly misrepresented some points. In addition, the analysis becomes extremely complicated when various models are taken into consideration, such as the one initially proposed by Adam Smith, along with other ones, such as Harrod-Domar, Lewis, Rostow, and Solow, although I will focus on Smith because his analysis is sufficient for this discussion.

To begin with, the main issues involved are labor, capital, and land.

Labor, or human capital, needs to be generally sustainable in the long run, so too much or too little would theoretically be undesirable. By the 18th century, England had enough workers to utilize, and had a surplus according to certain conditions, but this was dwarfed by the general situation within China, as the latter's overpopulation eventually began to lead to severe social problems over time, and partially explains why the dynasties were eventually overthrown, along with widespread revolts during the late Qing. In addition, China's social conditions meant that proportionately speaking, its populace was much less educated than the corresponding group in England, as the former had an extensive writing system which took much longer than other ones to memorize, not to mention that the government significantly underrepresented the population due to various factors. While England's literacy and education rates weren't exactly stellar either, not to mention that the middle class did not begin to emerge until the 19th century or so, its political structure greatly facilitated social transitions in the long run. These changes eventually lead to an increase in capital, as an increase in wages eventually translates into higher savings, and ultimately affects productivity, which is further influenced by an increase in demand, leading to technological innovations in order to compensate for these changes.

I could go into further detail, and also discuss the "Natural Resource Curse," which highlights the necessity of stable institutions, but I think these would probably be superfluous.

That was essentially the case, as merchants [in China] were generally viewed as a lower class than farmers, given the fact that the former technically did not produce anything on their own. Challenging this cultural mindset would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, given that this was set in stone in part due to Confucianism, and would require extensive cultural and social changes at least by 1000, if not significantly earlier. IIRC, China also set limits on how much tribute could be received because the amount denoted how much trade would be allowed, so if tributaries attempted to petition the Chinese government in order to gain more resources, the court feared that the sudden influx of foreign resources would flood the market, while comparatively valuable resources might end up in the hands of foreigners, which was undesirable in the long run. Economically speaking, although there would be a general equilibrium in the long run as supply and demand would dictate the flow of goods, it would be difficult to explain the concept to the Chinese government before 1800, given that the theory was developed through hindsight, instead of forecasting an uncertain hypothesis that needed to be tested through trial and error.

These points generally highlighted the main differences between England and China, although they can also be applied to other countries within Asia as well after tweaking some of the variables. It took many centuries for England to develop a more open philosophy that allowed it to embark on social, economic, technological, and political changes, partly due to political changes such as the Glorious Revolution (1688), and these conditions further spurred simultaneous innovations within multiple fields by the late 18th century.
 

SunDeep

Banned
Yes, thank you, I understand. This still isn't relevant to my point which is that without the initially available resources you can't think of jump starting an early 19th C industrialisation process. There's no point having all the right socio-political factors if there's no coal to burn and no global trade network to bring it to you. i'm addressing the people who are saying "oh they can import coal".

I'm not sure if even in the late 19th C with access to a sophisticated globalised trade network Japan used imported coal for it's initial industrialisation.

Take a look at a map of worldwide coal deposits, and you'll find that there are plenty of big, easily extractable coal deposits in Asia. Sure, if you use this as a prerequisite, it cuts some of the prime candidates out of the running- Siam, Mysore and Travancore unfortunately fill under this category, unless they can extend their sphere of influence to include regions which do have major deposits, a la Manchukuo. But there were still plenty of prime candidates who would have had the coal to kindle 19th industrial revolutions of their own, including Hyderabad, Odissa, the Sikh Empire, Korea, Malacca, Brunei and Afghanistan (and of course Japan, which used its own substantial coal deposits to fuel its own initial industrialisation IOTL). What do you think?
 
Take a look at a map of worldwide coal deposits, and you'll find that there are plenty of big, easily extractable coal deposits in Asia. Sure, if you use this as a prerequisite, it cuts some of the prime candidates out of the running- Siam, Mysore and Travancore unfortunately fill under this category, unless they can extend their sphere of influence to include regions which do have major deposits, a la Manchukuo. But there were still plenty of prime candidates who would have had the coal to kindle 19th industrial revolutions of their own, including Hyderabad, Odissa, the Sikh Empire, Korea, Malacca, Brunei and Afghanistan (and of course Japan, which used its own substantial coal deposits to fuel its own initial industrialisation IOTL). What do you think?
so perhaps, we can deduce the places of possible industrialisation into these:
1. Korea
2. Malacca
3. Afghanistan :D
4. Sikhs
5. Japan (obviously)
7. ....Persia?

what else?
 
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