AHC: American elections after Kerry victory in 2004
- Thread starter Taunay
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Kerry is likely to lose as his handling of the Iraq War is inevitably going to alienate a lot of people (whether it is liberals who are unhappy when Kerry does not withdraw, or conservatives who are unhappy that Kerry is not prosecuting the war aggressively enough). Moreover, a Kerry victory is unlikely to butterfly or significantly delay the 2007-09 financial crisis so the economy will most likely tank before the 2008 election.
With Iraq still a major issue, McCain would be a strong candidate in the 2008 primaries. George Allen of Virginia will probably be re-elected to the Senate in 2006, so he is another possibility. I do not think Giuliani would be the nominee; like Nelson Rockefeller 40 years prior he has the disadvantages of being a New Yorker with a checkered personal life and a background as a social liberal. IOTL Giuliani's primary campaign was terrible and I imagine the same would hold true during a hypothetical Kerry Administration.
That said, without Obama as his opponent McCain would not have an incentive to pick Palin as his running mate so the country is spared the embarrassment of her vice-presidential run. McCain likely wins, but the post-2009 economic recovery would be slowed by a fiscally conservative Republican administration and the Democrats would have a good shot at winning in 2012 if they run a charismatic candidate like Obama. I wonder if President McCain, aged 76, would run for a second term in 2012...
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Thank your for this analysis, and I agree that the Great Recession was inevitable
2006: Even though Iraq and Katrina are handled better under Kerry than under Bush OTL, the overall outcomes of those are still messy, so R's net gains of around 15-30 in the House and probably around 2-4 in the Senate. It's not a 1994 or 2010 OTL style blowout, but it's still a loss for the Democrats. McConnell still succeeds Bill Frist as the Republican Senate leader, though he's obviously majority leader 8 years earlier than OTL, while Hastert stays on as Speaker but announces it'll be his last term in Congress. The realignment of the Appalahcian / upper south to the GOP that began in 2010 OTL under Obama starts four years earlier in a world where Kerry wins.
2008: Despite some speculation that he might run again after a narrow electoral defeat and a popular vote win, George W. Bush declines to run for a second non consecutive term, and instead endorses his brother Jeb, who declares his candidacy in the spring of 2007 and a majority of the 2008 Republican field of OTL throw their hats in the ring, as well as senators and governors that lost in OTL, but held on in TTL (George Allen for example). With that said, McCain runs a campaign that's a mix of his 2008 OTL campaign (hawkishness) and his 2000 campaign, putting greater emphasis of campaign finance reform and his general maverickness. With that and with Jeb and George Allen syphoning votes from Romney and Huckabee, as well as Giuliani and Fred Thompson tanking like they did OTL, McCain wins the nomination with a plurality, picking a more conventional running mate (Pawlenty, Romney, Allen, maybe Brownback) instead of Palin.
Kerry goes into the election campaign unpopular and depending on how Iraq goes may even see a left wing primary challenge. While Edwards was undone by scandal OTL, being Vice President might prevent that (or at least prevent it from getting out) so I'm not of the assertion that Edwards would automatically get dropped. That said if he does, expect retired party elder to replace him on the ticket (Dick Gephardt of Sam Nunn perhaps) as anyone with Presidential aspirations isn't going to want to be associated with an unpopular President Kerry.
Edwards being dropped or not, thanks to all issues in the Mid East as well as a financial crash late in the '08 campaign season, Kerry still loses to McCain decisively, though due to economics not being McCain's strong suit, he somewhat under performs the fundamentals of the election. The GOP ends up with a super majority in both houses of Congress as well and Kerry leaves office with approvals as bad as Bush's were in 2008=09 OTL.
2010: Due to a Republican Congress refusing to pass any economic measures proposed by the Kerry administration at the end of 2008 and President McCain's refusal to pass any bailouts as well as his economic advisors (led by Phil Graham who advised his 08 campaign OTL) advising McCain to respond to the fallout with austerity cuts, the Great Recession is even greater and longer, and the recovery even weaker. With this, and with escalating tensions with Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Libya, the Democrats have their best electoral performance since 1974, with the Democrats retaking both chambers of Congress.
2012: With an economy still struggling, US relations at an all time low, and due to failing health, President McCain announces his intentions to not seek re election in the summer of 2011. His Vice President loses the nomination to one of the 2008 runner ups, while Hillary Clinton, a more politically seasoned Barack Obama, or perhaps someone like Brian Schweitzer or even a John Edwards that isn't rocked by scandal emerges as the 2012 Democratic nominee. Regardless of who the Democrats nominate, they win the Presidency in a modern day landslide and with it, have a Super Majority in the Senate and a near Super Majority in the House. Said Democrat likely goes on to be the first President since Bill Clinton to be re elected to a 2nd term.
2014: A Republican year, though likely not a wave.
2016: Democratic President wins re election decisively
2018: 6 year itch that sees the GOP retake the House and Senate.
2020: A Republican is likely the slight favorite, but with the POD being November of 2004, who know what's gonna shape determine this election.
2008: Despite some speculation that he might run again after a narrow electoral defeat and a popular vote win, George W. Bush declines to run for a second non consecutive term, and instead endorses his brother Jeb, who declares his candidacy in the spring of 2007 and a majority of the 2008 Republican field of OTL throw their hats in the ring, as well as senators and governors that lost in OTL, but held on in TTL (George Allen for example). With that said, McCain runs a campaign that's a mix of his 2008 OTL campaign (hawkishness) and his 2000 campaign, putting greater emphasis of campaign finance reform and his general maverickness. With that and with Jeb and George Allen syphoning votes from Romney and Huckabee, as well as Giuliani and Fred Thompson tanking like they did OTL, McCain wins the nomination with a plurality, picking a more conventional running mate (Pawlenty, Romney, Allen, maybe Brownback) instead of Palin.
Kerry goes into the election campaign unpopular and depending on how Iraq goes may even see a left wing primary challenge. While Edwards was undone by scandal OTL, being Vice President might prevent that (or at least prevent it from getting out) so I'm not of the assertion that Edwards would automatically get dropped. That said if he does, expect retired party elder to replace him on the ticket (Dick Gephardt of Sam Nunn perhaps) as anyone with Presidential aspirations isn't going to want to be associated with an unpopular President Kerry.
Edwards being dropped or not, thanks to all issues in the Mid East as well as a financial crash late in the '08 campaign season, Kerry still loses to McCain decisively, though due to economics not being McCain's strong suit, he somewhat under performs the fundamentals of the election. The GOP ends up with a super majority in both houses of Congress as well and Kerry leaves office with approvals as bad as Bush's were in 2008=09 OTL.
2010: Due to a Republican Congress refusing to pass any economic measures proposed by the Kerry administration at the end of 2008 and President McCain's refusal to pass any bailouts as well as his economic advisors (led by Phil Graham who advised his 08 campaign OTL) advising McCain to respond to the fallout with austerity cuts, the Great Recession is even greater and longer, and the recovery even weaker. With this, and with escalating tensions with Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Libya, the Democrats have their best electoral performance since 1974, with the Democrats retaking both chambers of Congress.
2012: With an economy still struggling, US relations at an all time low, and due to failing health, President McCain announces his intentions to not seek re election in the summer of 2011. His Vice President loses the nomination to one of the 2008 runner ups, while Hillary Clinton, a more politically seasoned Barack Obama, or perhaps someone like Brian Schweitzer or even a John Edwards that isn't rocked by scandal emerges as the 2012 Democratic nominee. Regardless of who the Democrats nominate, they win the Presidency in a modern day landslide and with it, have a Super Majority in the Senate and a near Super Majority in the House. Said Democrat likely goes on to be the first President since Bill Clinton to be re elected to a 2nd term.
2014: A Republican year, though likely not a wave.
2016: Democratic President wins re election decisively
2018: 6 year itch that sees the GOP retake the House and Senate.
2020: A Republican is likely the slight favorite, but with the POD being November of 2004, who know what's gonna shape determine this election.
Nazi Space Spy
Banned
Reporting for Duty: The Presidency of John Kerry and Beyond
This timeline will go from 2005-2013 in After 1900 followed by part II, which shall be posted in chat in accordance to the rules about current politics. (The map used in this infobox was created by TrueGrit - credit goes to him!) The 2004 Presidential Election was close, but fortunately, not...
www.alternatehistory.com
cough cough
44. John Kerry (D) (2005-2009)
45. John McCain (R) (2009-2017)
46. Hillary Clinton (D) (2017-present)
In addition to winning the 2004 presidential election, KY's Senate seat flips and FL's stays Democratic. Kerry has to deal with a Republican congress for four years and its too late to stop the financial crisis, so he's a perpetual lame duck. 2006 midterms are a disaster for the Democrats, with the Republicans flipping Senate seats in MD and NJ while holding OH, MO, MT, and VA. PA probably still flips Democratic as Santorum lost by a whopping 18 points to Bob Casey Jr. MI could be a possible flip for the GOP, however that was a 16 point margin of victory for Debbie Stabenow.
McCain will likely win the nomination over Giuliani and Romney, but I think Huckabee does better if an early Tea Party-ish movement starts under Kerry and rallies behind the more populist Huckabee over the "establishment" McCain. McCain picks Tim Pawlenty as VP and wins the 2008 election in a landslide due to the depressed economy and a lack of voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side.
McCain - 395 EVs, 54% PV
Kerry - 143 EVs, 44% PV
Republicans widen their majorities in the House and Senate, flipping LA and NJ, and holding AK, CO, MN, NH, NM (if Domenici runs), and NC. VA is likely a Democratic flip as (Mark) Warner won that 2-1 and (John) Warner was very old and unlikely to run for reelection.
However, the economy still continues to stagnate. A moderate stimulus package is passed over objections of the right-wing deficit hawks, however the economic recovery going into 2010 is negligible, so the Democrats take the House and fall short in the Senate. Democrats flip AZ (McCain is no longer Senator and IL flipped after Obama became president IOTL), GA (Jason Carter), MO, NC, OH (Sherrod Brown), PA (Specter stays Republican, loses Republican primary), and hold AR, FL*, IL, IN, KY*, and WI. ND is the lone Republican flip as polls indicated Hoeven was going to steamroll anyone in his path, and he won by FIFTY points IOTL. Democrats do better in the south as the last of the Dixiecrats died under the Obama administration for... reasons.
2012 Democratic primary features many candidates, however it narrows down to Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama. With Iraq still in full swing and war fatigue setting in, progressives rally behind Obama and propel him across the finish line, while Hillary drops out and changes her campaign for reelection to the Senate. McCain runs for reelection and faces nominal opposition. Obama picks Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln as a balancing running mate, however with the economy on the upswing and the brutality of the Democratic primary, as well as some gaffes by the Obama/Lincoln campaign, McCain wins by a reduced margin.
McCain / Pawlenty - 336 (R), 52% PV
Obama / Lincoln - 202 (D), 46% PV
Senate probably stays Republican, as many seats have changed I won't go into specifics. The Democrats narrowly hold their House majority. Going into 2014, McCain's popularity is in a slump despite drawing up plans to withdraw from Iraq. Democrats flip the Senate for the first time in 12 years and widen their House majority. Hillary Clinton and Tim Pawlenty are the clear frontrunners for the nomination. Clinton swiftly wins, whereas Pawlenty fends off challenges from the "religious right" and a resurgent Huckabee 2016 campaign. Clinton selects Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown as her running mate whereas Pawlenty selects conservative VA Senator George Allen.
45. John McCain (R) (2009-2017)
46. Hillary Clinton (D) (2017-present)
In addition to winning the 2004 presidential election, KY's Senate seat flips and FL's stays Democratic. Kerry has to deal with a Republican congress for four years and its too late to stop the financial crisis, so he's a perpetual lame duck. 2006 midterms are a disaster for the Democrats, with the Republicans flipping Senate seats in MD and NJ while holding OH, MO, MT, and VA. PA probably still flips Democratic as Santorum lost by a whopping 18 points to Bob Casey Jr. MI could be a possible flip for the GOP, however that was a 16 point margin of victory for Debbie Stabenow.
McCain will likely win the nomination over Giuliani and Romney, but I think Huckabee does better if an early Tea Party-ish movement starts under Kerry and rallies behind the more populist Huckabee over the "establishment" McCain. McCain picks Tim Pawlenty as VP and wins the 2008 election in a landslide due to the depressed economy and a lack of voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side.
McCain - 395 EVs, 54% PV
Kerry - 143 EVs, 44% PV
Republicans widen their majorities in the House and Senate, flipping LA and NJ, and holding AK, CO, MN, NH, NM (if Domenici runs), and NC. VA is likely a Democratic flip as (Mark) Warner won that 2-1 and (John) Warner was very old and unlikely to run for reelection.
However, the economy still continues to stagnate. A moderate stimulus package is passed over objections of the right-wing deficit hawks, however the economic recovery going into 2010 is negligible, so the Democrats take the House and fall short in the Senate. Democrats flip AZ (McCain is no longer Senator and IL flipped after Obama became president IOTL), GA (Jason Carter), MO, NC, OH (Sherrod Brown), PA (Specter stays Republican, loses Republican primary), and hold AR, FL*, IL, IN, KY*, and WI. ND is the lone Republican flip as polls indicated Hoeven was going to steamroll anyone in his path, and he won by FIFTY points IOTL. Democrats do better in the south as the last of the Dixiecrats died under the Obama administration for... reasons.
2012 Democratic primary features many candidates, however it narrows down to Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama. With Iraq still in full swing and war fatigue setting in, progressives rally behind Obama and propel him across the finish line, while Hillary drops out and changes her campaign for reelection to the Senate. McCain runs for reelection and faces nominal opposition. Obama picks Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln as a balancing running mate, however with the economy on the upswing and the brutality of the Democratic primary, as well as some gaffes by the Obama/Lincoln campaign, McCain wins by a reduced margin.
McCain / Pawlenty - 336 (R), 52% PV
Obama / Lincoln - 202 (D), 46% PV
Senate probably stays Republican, as many seats have changed I won't go into specifics. The Democrats narrowly hold their House majority. Going into 2014, McCain's popularity is in a slump despite drawing up plans to withdraw from Iraq. Democrats flip the Senate for the first time in 12 years and widen their House majority. Hillary Clinton and Tim Pawlenty are the clear frontrunners for the nomination. Clinton swiftly wins, whereas Pawlenty fends off challenges from the "religious right" and a resurgent Huckabee 2016 campaign. Clinton selects Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown as her running mate whereas Pawlenty selects conservative VA Senator George Allen.
I agree with this analysis. 2004, much like 1928 or 1976, was a poisoned chalice election where the winning move was not to play. One thing that concerns me is whether a Republican Congress will even pass a bailout in 2008 if Bush is not in the White House. The bailout took two votes to pass even with a Democratic Congress. McConnell and the GOP might well let the entire global economy collapse in the process of trying to sabotage Kerry in 2008.
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A Democratic 2010's sounds very interesting, considering that we had a Republican 2000's
There's a good chance that John McCain would be in the Kerry cabinet. Actually, so too could both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. If McCain is no in Kerry's cabinet, then he's a logical choice for 2008 on the GOP side. Instead, I think Romney gets the nomination and wins a a result of the faltering economy and deteriorating situation in Iraq. Romney in this timeline may even have had a second term as governor in Massachusetts. Giuliani might've pulled off the nomination though instead. It all depends on where McCain's 2008 primary voters go without him in the race. Sticking with Romney, he chooses as his running mate someone who is arguably his inverse as a Republican: Tom Tancredo of Colorado. Controversies over the Romney family dog and criticisms of Bain Capital falter, the latter becoming a strength for the (former) governor, who leverages his experience to argue that he alone can turn the economy around because he understands its inner workings. The Russian incursion into Georgia and President Kerry's lackluster response for it diminishes whatever credibility he might've had on foreign policy, and the Romney Tancredo ticket wins in a blowout.
President Romney gets out of Afghanistan, carries out a troop surge in Iraq, and quickly gets to work on the economy. President Romney better navigates protest movements in this Islamic world, approves the Keystone XL Pipeline, recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and successfully seeks improved buy-in from NATO members as their economies start to improve following the Great Recession. The president cruises to reelection in 2012. A Russian attempt at annexing Crimea in 2014 is successfully rebuffed short of war. Virginia senator Jim Webb secures the Democratic nomination in 2016 and goes on to win the general election.
President Romney gets out of Afghanistan, carries out a troop surge in Iraq, and quickly gets to work on the economy. President Romney better navigates protest movements in this Islamic world, approves the Keystone XL Pipeline, recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and successfully seeks improved buy-in from NATO members as their economies start to improve following the Great Recession. The president cruises to reelection in 2012. A Russian attempt at annexing Crimea in 2014 is successfully rebuffed short of war. Virginia senator Jim Webb secures the Democratic nomination in 2016 and goes on to win the general election.
Tancredo as VP would be suicide for Romney. Kerry gets a second term as Tancredo makes a fool of himself and Romney like Palin did.
Circumstances are different. Also, who should be Romney's VP? I'm open to suggestions.
Democrats came out of the 2008 election with 3 of Mississippi's 4 House seats. I don't think Mississippi voters found out Obama was black after the election.
The Democrats flipped an Alabama seat in 2008 to make that delegation 4-3 GOP. Martha Roby took it back in 2010 and Parker Griffith switched.
Louisiana is more complicated because Bill Jefferson (freezer guy) lost his seat in a December runoff, to the first Vietnamese-American Representative and the Baton Rouge seat flipped back to the GOP after the Democrats took it in a special election. LA-3 stayed Democrat in 2008 and went Republican in 2010, while the Democrats recaptured the New Orleans seat.
The bailout was corporate welfare. I'm still waiting for the money to trickle down.
Agree.
Especially 2010. An overlooked factor in 2010 was how many seats were artificially blue as a result of 2006 and 2008. ID-2 and KS-2 are examples. The Republicans had to really step on their collective dicks to lose those seats.
As someone from Massachusetts, I am already bracing myself for all the jokes about the 2008 election being a "choice between two rich jerks from Massachusetts."