AHC: Allies victory and Soviet collapse
- Thread starter Armot
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Well if Fort Eben Emael can hold out against the paratroopers, Germany will need to reduce it in detail, which will slow them up, not only there, but in taking France. Combine that with solving the Castle Bromwich production earlier and the Nazis may quickly realise that an extended air campaign against Britain is more-or-less impossible. If you can then talk the Vichy government into surrendering the North African colonies, or get the colonies to balk against the government, you can Solve the North African front much more quickly, which will allow a slightly greater concentration of forces on Barbarossa. From there, maybe take Leningrad instead of just besieging it?
Less lend-lease? HMS Tirptiz sallies forth, wrecks a couple of convoys, causes Allies to halt for a bit. Maybe the Finns take Murmansk?
Everyone's favorite - Stalin dies? Kursk goes better for the Germans, and Stalin rages at Zhukov. Zhukov is quick enough to shoot Stalin, but Beria escapes, and there is a mini-civil war where the Germans can consolidate enough to hold the line. The WAllies still rip into France, and the Alt-Bulge is a disaster - the Allies get wind of it, the skies are clear, and the Jabos kill the German Army of the West. Germany falls, the US and UK roll forward, liberating Poland and the Ukraine. USSR collapses?
Everyone's favorite - Stalin dies? Kursk goes better for the Germans, and Stalin rages at Zhukov. Zhukov is quick enough to shoot Stalin, but Beria escapes, and there is a mini-civil war where the Germans can consolidate enough to hold the line. The WAllies still rip into France, and the Alt-Bulge is a disaster - the Allies get wind of it, the skies are clear, and the Jabos kill the German Army of the West. Germany falls, the US and UK roll forward, liberating Poland and the Ukraine. USSR collapses?
The greatest challenge is making the USSR strong enough to still be a huge drain on German resources, but weak enough to never mount a counteroffensive that goes anywhere and have the whole farce collapse after the war.
This is certainly possible, but it would probably require a pre-war POD and different attitudes towards the Soviets in Washington and London.
This is certainly possible, but it would probably require a pre-war POD and different attitudes towards the Soviets in Washington and London.
Folks are looking at this from the wrong end. The war on either front was not for the Germans to win, but its oppoents to lose. In the case of the USSR lets consider that in June 1941 the Soviet government falls apart. There is a coup in June with Stalin killed & the rest break up into factions that have difficulty cooperations. Lack clear central control the Red Army is unable to defend Lenningrad and Moscow, with large scale losses to both sides continuing. 1942 ends with the former Red Army split into several independant fronts on the fringe of Europe. These armies are too weak to advance westwards, but strong enough the Germans cant defeat them any further.
The German military is still ravaged by its eastern campaigns, thinned by garrisons across the former USSR, and the rest of Europe, and a bit overconfident as Hitler thinks he won a brilliant victory in the east.
The German military is still ravaged by its eastern campaigns, thinned by garrisons across the former USSR, and the rest of Europe, and a bit overconfident as Hitler thinks he won a brilliant victory in the east.
And just to mention it now, I don't think there's any way the Nazi invasion could cause the Soviet government to collapse, but simply draw so much Soviet blood that they can't make major inroads into Europe.
As I said, Fort Eben Emael doesn't fall to the German glider troops, but suffers enough damage that the Germans are able to reduce it within a few more days, but this gives the allies in France a few more days to prepare, to the point that they are able to hold the Germans off longer, and in retaliation, Hitler simply occupies the country rather than allowing a rump government as per OTL. However, this drives the French colonies firmly into the allied camp, and allows the allies to quickly close the North African front with a drive from Tunisia. If they can clean up the Castle Bromwich issue earlier, then combined with the slower German advance in France, the inability of the Luftwaffe to beat the RAF is never really in doubt, meaning that the Germans never really start terror-bombing the British who likewise focus on more strategic targets.
With the loss in rapid succession of both their East African and North African forces, and the defeat of their Baltic forces, the Italians decide to play it safe and back Germany in Russia, in exchange for German support later in reclaiming North Africa.
Due to not having to maintain forces in North Africa, the Axis does better in Barbarossa, taking Leningrad in late October, 1941, and also Kandalaksha, effectively preventing most of the supplies debarked in Murmansk from reaching the Soviet forces in the south (aircraft arrive though, flown from Murmansk to Archangelsk). The Germans follow this up in 1942 with a pair of unsuccessful but draining attacks on Murmansk and Archangelsk, which draws off Soviet forces, allowing Axis forces in the Caucasus to eventually capture Stalingrad, and later withdraw successfully from the Soviet counter-attack.
In the Far East, the Japanese at first make reasonable gains, but soon run into opposition in Malaya and Burma, turning these fronts into bloody slugging-matches that draw in Japanese forces from elsewhere.
Not sure how realistic any of this is.
As I said, Fort Eben Emael doesn't fall to the German glider troops, but suffers enough damage that the Germans are able to reduce it within a few more days, but this gives the allies in France a few more days to prepare, to the point that they are able to hold the Germans off longer, and in retaliation, Hitler simply occupies the country rather than allowing a rump government as per OTL. However, this drives the French colonies firmly into the allied camp, and allows the allies to quickly close the North African front with a drive from Tunisia. If they can clean up the Castle Bromwich issue earlier, then combined with the slower German advance in France, the inability of the Luftwaffe to beat the RAF is never really in doubt, meaning that the Germans never really start terror-bombing the British who likewise focus on more strategic targets.
With the loss in rapid succession of both their East African and North African forces, and the defeat of their Baltic forces, the Italians decide to play it safe and back Germany in Russia, in exchange for German support later in reclaiming North Africa.
Due to not having to maintain forces in North Africa, the Axis does better in Barbarossa, taking Leningrad in late October, 1941, and also Kandalaksha, effectively preventing most of the supplies debarked in Murmansk from reaching the Soviet forces in the south (aircraft arrive though, flown from Murmansk to Archangelsk). The Germans follow this up in 1942 with a pair of unsuccessful but draining attacks on Murmansk and Archangelsk, which draws off Soviet forces, allowing Axis forces in the Caucasus to eventually capture Stalingrad, and later withdraw successfully from the Soviet counter-attack.
In the Far East, the Japanese at first make reasonable gains, but soon run into opposition in Malaya and Burma, turning these fronts into bloody slugging-matches that draw in Japanese forces from elsewhere.
Not sure how realistic any of this is.
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