AH Challenge: Red Alert

shillinger

On AH.com the term mentioned in the tread`s title stands for an AH cliche where the author makes the USSR go insane and starts a total war with the aim of conquering Europe. This scenario usually has a "no Hitler" PoD and is considered to be highly implausible by some members of this site.

So your challenge is to make the USSR conquer parts of Europe in a naziless TL.

And Id like to say that the scenario isnt required to have the USSR defeated in the end. In fact, you could make a scenario where the USSR rains supreme over Europe, a scenario where the USSR is stalemated in Central Europe or even a scenario where the Soviets only subjugate their OTL post-WWII influence sphere. To summarise, you are only required to make the Soviets expand their sphere of infulence in Europe beyond their OTL 1945. border without stepping into ASB territory.

The PoD can be anywhere from the October revolution onwards.
 

Cyclone

In Lessons of October, Trotsky wisely fails to mention Zinoviev and Kamenev's great mistake in 1917. Without this to renew the two's zeal, the Zinoviev-Kamenev-Stalin troika collapses due to Stalin's authoritarian style. Stalin eventually falls out of power entirely after a struggle with Zinoviev, who relies significantly on Lenin's Testament which he had earlier helped to repress. Trotsky retains control of the military, and eventually becomes a valued member of the Zinoviev-led Soviet state.

After it recovers from 1928 (probably thanks to some economic ideas from Preobrazhensky), the Soviet economy does exactly what it did historically: leap forward about a century.

Because of this, the communist movement in Eastern Europe does a bit better with a more rational and consistent Comintern. After the Great Depression hits, Russian-directed communist parties make major strides in various Eastern European countries (pick whichever ones are most likely), taking power via a combination of traditional parliamentarian mechanics and outright revolution. If Hitler dies or whatever, they might succeed in Germany as well.

This prompts conflict with the surviving capitalist states in Eastern Europe, and when they go too far, the USSR outright rolls over them.
 

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

Cyclone said:
In Lessons of October, Trotsky wisely fails to mention Zinoviev and Kamenev's great mistake in 1917. Without this to renew the two's zeal, the Zinoviev-Kamenev-Stalin troika collapses due to Stalin's authoritarian style. Stalin eventually falls out of power entirely after a struggle with Zinoviev, who relies significantly on Lenin's Testament which he had earlier helped to repress. Trotsky retains control of the military, and eventually becomes a valued member of the Zinoviev-led Soviet state.

After it recovers from 1928 (probably thanks to some economic ideas from Preobrazhensky), the Soviet economy does exactly what it did historically: leap forward about a century.

Because of this, the communist movement in Eastern Europe does a bit better with a more rational and consistent Comintern. After the Great Depression hits, Russian-directed communist parties make major strides in various Eastern European countries (pick whichever ones are most likely), taking power via a combination of traditional parliamentarian mechanics and outright revolution. If Hitler dies or whatever, they might succeed in Germany as well.

This prompts conflict with the surviving capitalist states in Eastern Europe, and when they go too far, the USSR outright rolls over them.
Click to expand...


Good scenario. It also bears mentioning that if Trotsky keeps up the 'world revolution' and 'communism vs. capitalism' rhetoric, than the Western powers will be more worried and antagonistic towards the USSR. IOTL, Britain was still hoping to form an anti-USSR alliance up to 1939, although I'm sure they realized it was unrealistic long before then. In this ATL, without German belligerence, these efforts will probably bear more fruit. And with both sides, the West and the USSR, believing that war is inevitable, than is could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
Ariosto

Ariosto

Well, we could have Hitler die during the Beer Hall Putsch, or just allow for the return of the monarchy as Hidenburg desired. I do not believe that the people after this amount of strife under a Democratic government would mind such a development. Under Wilhelm II (or III if the former proved unacceptable still), Kurt von Schleicher, and Franz von Papen, we can expect similar movements as we did with the Nazi regime. All desired the restoration of Germany's frontiers; this would later include the Kingdom of Austria after its merger with Germany. However, they would not have the military power nor the political power to reclaim Czechia and West Prussia, so diplomatic arangments would be made which left both sides complacent.

The situation with Germany is therefore defused. Then in about 1943 the Second World War starts shortly after the Soviet invasion of Poland, the Baltics, and Finland.
 
machine3589

machine3589

Ariosto said:
The situation with Germany is therefore defused. Then in about 1943 the Second World War starts shortly after the Soviet invasion of Poland, the Baltics, and Finland.
Click to expand...

Would the Western powers really go to war over Eastern Europe? And I dont mean just a DoW, but an actual offensive against the SU. What OTL showed us is that France and Britain were reluctant to actually fight until they themselves were threatened.
 

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

machine3589 said:
Would the Western powers really go to war over Eastern Europe? And I dont mean just a DoW, but an actual offensive against the SU. What OTL showed us is that France and Britain were reluctant to actually fight until they themselves were threatened.
Click to expand...

Are you joking? What OTL showed us was the France and Britain were willing to declare war over Poland.
 

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

machine3589 said:
As I said in my post, they were willing to declare war, but are they willing to fight for Poland? OTL says no.
Click to expand...


I think you're drawing unfair conclusions. They fought all of World War II over Poland. After they won the war, they were under the impression that Poland would have free elections, and by the time they realized this wouldn't happen, they were in no position to oppose the USSR, after being bankrupted by WWII. In this ATL scenario, this IS World War II--just as OTL WWII started with the invasion of Poland, so could this one.
 
machine3589

machine3589

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan said:
I think you're drawing unfair conclusions. They fought all of World War II over Poland. After they won the war, they were under the impression that Poland would have free elections, and by the time they realized this wouldn't happen, they were in no position to oppose the USSR, after being bankrupted by WWII. In this ATL scenario, this IS World War II--just as OTL WWII started with the invasion of Poland, so could this one.
Click to expand...

I think your taking an awfully romantic wiew of things. The Allies didnt fight all of WWII over Poland (I cant honestly believe someone would say that). They were perfectly willing to let it get overrun by the Nazis. When was it that the Wallies actually started fighting? When they were put in the line of fire.
 

Keb

machine3589 said:
I think your taking an awfully romantic wiew of things. The Allies didnt fight all of WWII over Poland (I cant honestly believe someone would say that). They were perfectly willing to let it get overrun by the Nazis. When was it that the Wallies actually started fighting? When they were put in the line of fire.
Click to expand...

Then again, it's unlikely for the Soviets to stop their advance should Western Europe declare war. Assuming Germany does, they'd have troops in Poland, if nothing else so that the Soviets don't end up bordering them and/or fighting on German land.

And once Poland is down and the Red Army is streaming toward Berlin, you can be certain that Britain and France will be sending their own troops. London was paranoid enough about the Communists OTL, this would only make their paranoia seem warranted.

So, yes, Britain and France would fight. Germany gets to play the battleground and, if they're good enough, manage to end up rewarded with territory.
 

I Blame Communism

Banned
Of course, the whole dispute over Poland is ignoring how the USSR would have to have a radically differant foreign policy before it would attack the eastern buffer of a united capitalist coalition. They were scared shitless of capitalist combinations against them and spotted them everywhere they looked. Note that they started annexing things only once they'd come to an understanding with Germany that guaranteed conflict between Germany and the Entente, and then they remained the cautious hyena to Germany's rampaging lion, moving into Poland once it had already more-or-less ceased to exist, infiltrating the Baltics gradually, cutting short the Finnish adventure, and waiting until the Battle of France was in full swing to annex Romanian and Baltic territory.

It's certainly not implausible for a revanchist non-Nazi German regime to gravitate towards a Russian alliance (working with the Entente in pursuit of revision was Stresemann's policy), but for the USSR to attack Britain, France, and Germany simultaneously would require some absurdly overconfidant and rather suicidal men in Moscow. Not everyone was as cautious and paranoid as Stalin, but I don't think any senior Bolshevik wanted to Take Over The World as declared foreign policy.

(Oh and yes, Britain would certainly respond to Soviet aggression against the eastern states by bombing Baku at the very least. Chamberlain meditated bombing Baku is response to German aggression against the eastern states. France might not be so enthusiastic, but they'd very probably come along for the ride.)
 

Sachyriel

Banned
I'll just leave this here shall I?
mmmeee0_ah-soviet-invasion-of-europe.gif
 

I Blame Communism

Banned
shillinger said:
Well, this tread was started to create such a scenario, rather then to assume the USSR go batshit insane and start conquering for no apparent reason (as I mentioned in the OP).

Do you have any suggestions?
Click to expand...

Well, if we avert Nazis, we could still have a very tense situation between Germany and France over Poland by the time the Soviets have built up their military forces. They might roll the dice on a fait-accompli if they feel confident of provoking conflict between the western state by attacking Poland rather than bringing them together. You'd want someone other than Stalin, though, I should think.
 

Keb

I Blame Communism said:
Well, if we avert Nazis, we could still have a very tense situation between Germany and France over Poland by the time the Soviets have built up their military forces. They might roll the dice on a fait-accompli if they feel confident of provoking conflict between the western state by attacking Poland rather than bringing them together. You'd want someone other than Stalin, though, I should think.
Click to expand...

Or, if we've averted the Nazis, but still have a right-wing (if saner) expansionist government in Germany, the Soviets could see Germany getting away with expansion with barely a slap on the wrist from France and Britain.

Someone less paranoid than Stalin could see this as a sign that the West isn't really interested in another war and push just a bit too far. Then the declarations of war start flying and things snowball from there.
 
machine3589

machine3589

Keb said:
Then again, it's unlikely for the Soviets to stop their advance should Western Europe declare war.
Click to expand...

Why? If their objective is taking Eastern Europe (and maybe the Balkans), why would they suddenly decide to subject France and Britain? If the Western Powers decide to attack the SU because of its expansion, what`s stopping the Soviets from laying back and waiting for the Western Powers to come to them?

Assuming Germany does, they'd have troops in Poland, if nothing else so that the Soviets don't end up bordering them and/or fighting on German land.

And once Poland is down and the Red Army is streaming toward Berlin, you can be certain that Britain and France will be sending their own troops. London was paranoid enough about the Communists OTL, this would only make their paranoia seem warranted.

So, yes, Britain and France would fight. Germany gets to play the battleground and, if they're good enough, manage to end up rewarded with territory.
Click to expand...

This is assuming Germany is a direct goal of the Soviet advance, in which case your scenario would happen. But if the Soviets dont plan on marching below the Branderburg gate, then why would the Wallies and Soviets have a deathmatch in Thuringia?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top