AH Challenge: Man on Mars by 1985

What would it have taken for Sea Dragon to have actually been built, and if it had been built, would it have made a Mars expedition more feasible?

Up to 5-10 Billion dollars for the rocket itself, & how many hundred millions for the support vessels...?
Mind you the possibility of launching up to 1000 tons into LEO would potentially make a Mars mission far easier...
 

Glen

Moderator
Simplest answer is to have Apollo program continue instead of space shuttle. There are lots of ways to make a POD for that. With rockets like that (or even more powerful over time), you almost have to use them for missions beyond near Earth orbit. Have the Soviets the commit to one upping us by going to Mars next! Have one of the Apollo missions in the mid 70s find water on the moon, leading to later development of a moonbase, which also sets the pattern for what space exploration 'should' be. Have a Soviet lander find water at the Martian pole. US and Soviets race to send a manned mission to Mars, and now have powerful enough rockets and the experience in extraterrestrial bases to go to Mars and stay there for a year or two (turn-around time isn't so great, so if you know how to live on a planet for extended period of time, that's what you're going to do). One of the superpowers (take your pick, with PC development in the US I'll bet on us again) reaches the red planet by 1985 and immediately sets up a base for the long haul.
 
What would it have taken for Sea Dragon to have actually been built, and if it had been built, would it have made a Mars expedition more feasible?

Someone needing to get A LOT of payload up in a big hurry. Say, if people decide to start working on space solar power in the '70s in a big way, or if someone sees a giant asteroid coming in a decade or two in the mid '80s...
 
Simplest answer is to have Apollo program continue instead of space shuttle. There are lots of ways to make a POD for that. With rockets like that (or even more powerful over time), you almost have to use them for missions beyond near Earth orbit. Have the Soviets the commit to one upping us by going to Mars next! Have one of the Apollo missions in the mid 70s find water on the moon, leading to later development of a moonbase, which also sets the pattern for what space exploration 'should' be. Have a Soviet lander find water at the Martian pole. US and Soviets race to send a manned mission to Mars, and now have powerful enough rockets and the experience in extraterrestrial bases to go to Mars and stay there for a year or two (turn-around time isn't so great, so if you know how to live on a planet for extended period of time, that's what you're going to do). One of the superpowers (take your pick, with PC development in the US I'll bet on us again) reaches the red planet by 1985 and immediately sets up a base for the long haul.

I like those ideas. The Soviet Mars program is also interesting because the Soviets might go with a one-man one-way idea. What's to stop them from sending a guy and food supplies periodically, and then figure out a way to bring him home? It just strikes me as something they would do if pressed enough.

The moon base, while not necessary for Mars, has merits of its own (observatory, propaganda). Actually, do you remember Von Braun's plan of putting an S-II stage in LEO and making it into a space station? Can this (or the smaller Skylab type stations) be adapted for Lunar Surface applications?
 
I like those ideas. The Soviet Mars program is also interesting because the Soviets might go with a one-man one-way idea. What's to stop them from sending a guy and food supplies periodically, and then figure out a way to bring him home? It just strikes me as something they would do if pressed enough.

The moon base, while not necessary for Mars, has merits of its own (observatory, propaganda). Actually, do you remember Von Braun's plan of putting an S-II stage in LEO and making it into a space station? Can this (or the smaller Skylab type stations) be adapted for Lunar Surface applications?

You mean, Moonlab? Well, if you mean actually landing an S-IVB on the Moon for a station, no. But, if you mean using used upper stages as lunar-orbit stations which may then be used to stage surface activities, yes.
 
You mean, Moonlab? Well, if you mean actually landing an S-IVB on the Moon for a station, no. But, if you mean using used upper stages as lunar-orbit stations which may then be used to stage surface activities, yes.

I meant landing it on the surface. What I figure is, if the S-IVB (Or S-II, if bigger is better) can be modified in earth or lunar orbit to act in gravity, then strapping a descent engine on it should make it capable of landing somewhere without an atmosphere. This would be a base requiring maybe 3 Saturn launches to put on the surface. But, if Moonlab is the best we can hope for (maybe it can also reuse an Apollo ascent stage sometime?), then that's what's in.
 

Glen

Moderator
I like those ideas. The Soviet Mars program is also interesting because the Soviets might go with a one-man one-way idea. What's to stop them from sending a guy and food supplies periodically, and then figure out a way to bring him home? It just strikes me as something they would do if pressed enough.

The moon base, while not necessary for Mars, has merits of its own (observatory, propaganda). Actually, do you remember Von Braun's plan of putting an S-II stage in LEO and making it into a space station? Can this (or the smaller Skylab type stations) be adapted for Lunar Surface applications?

All possible, though I think the one man-one shot might be excessive, even for the Soviets.
 
S-IVB Manufactor Douglas proposed a Lunar Surface applications for the stage

LASS :Lunar Applications of a Spent S-IVBV/IU Stage
Idea: 14 tons of cargo ton Lunar surface and a S-IVB stage then used als Lunar Base

http://beyondapollo.blogspot.com/2010/01/lass-1966.html
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/apossivb.htm

for Mars surface applications
the S-IVB has to have a Heatshield and parashutes

also no problem because Douglas proposed also the reuse of S-IVB
by landing it on Earth

sdoc53ani.jpg

sdoc53ad.jpg

more here http://www.up-ship.com/drawndoc/drawndocspacesaturn.htm
 
i look into Polish Eagle proposal

Saturn V-23 rocket brings a payload 262 tonnes in low earth orbit
Or 98 tons direct to Mars
that's inside maximum range of 128 tons for S-IVB stage design

so three launches
one. Mars lander
two. Return stage to Earth with: Mission modul two and Earth return module.
tree. Misson module one and crew of 3 in Apollo hardware

but i found one problem
NOT ENOUGH FUEL FOR RETURN TO EARTH in the Return stage in Mars orbit !
the Lander on Mars has to carry that Fuel from Mars, at least 100 tons.
means take S-IVB to Mars and refuel it with Lox/Methan

or there is a 4 launch of a Fueld S-IVB (with Lox/Methan) to Marsorbit
 

Glen

Moderator
i look into Polish Eagle proposal

Saturn V-23 rocket brings a payload 262 tonnes in low earth orbit
Or 98 tons direct to Mars
that's inside maximum range of 128 tons for S-IVB stage design

so three launches
one. Mars lander
two. Return stage to Earth with: Mission modul two and Earth return module.
tree. Misson module one and crew of 3 in Apollo hardware

but i found one problem
NOT ENOUGH FUEL FOR RETURN TO EARTH in the Return stage in Mars orbit !
the Lander on Mars has to carry that Fuel from Mars, at least 100 tons.
means take S-IVB to Mars and refuel it with Lox/Methan

or there is a 4 launch of a Fueld S-IVB (with Lox/Methan) to Marsorbit

Launch the refueler before the manned mission.

Or make the fuel on Mars (riskier).
 
i look into Polish Eagle proposal

Saturn V-23 rocket brings a payload 262 tonnes in low earth orbit
Or 98 tons direct to Mars
that's inside maximum range of 128 tons for S-IVB stage design

so three launches
one. Mars lander
two. Return stage to Earth with: Mission modul two and Earth return module.
tree. Misson module one and crew of 3 in Apollo hardware

but i found one problem
NOT ENOUGH FUEL FOR RETURN TO EARTH in the Return stage in Mars orbit !
the Lander on Mars has to carry that Fuel from Mars, at least 100 tons.
means take S-IVB to Mars and refuel it with Lox/Methan

or there is a 4 launch of a Fueld S-IVB (with Lox/Methan) to Marsorbit

That's not quite my proposal. My proposal is to use the same mission module for the whole flight. The first launch is Ascent Vehicle and Hab to Mars surface. The second launch is fueled return stage in Mars Orbit. Alone. Third launch is Mission Module, Descent Stage, and Apollo CSM. This way, we dock our CSM/Mission Module combo with the return stage in mars orbit, then launch home.

Maybe this: place lox/methane return stages (two launches, one to place engines, one to send to Mars) into LEO. Assemble there (just one assembly of two engines together). Send to Mars. That way, you have your two S-IVB type stages in Mars orbit, and the rest of the mission as before. Still a lot of launches (four Super Saturns!) but much better than other proposals of this time.

Also, how would you guys feel about killing Nixon? Say Sam Byck goes nuts sooner, and thinks his plane-hijacking through, resulting in him flying a jet into the West Wing while Nixon's in his office in, say, 1969. This allows Spiro Agnew (much friendlier to space) to take office.
 
upps my error
i look again on Mission in detail next weekend

on Nixon death in this TL
please bevor 1970 (the shutdown of Saturn V production line)
and bevor 1973 Spiro Agnew Resignation on October 10.
because He is pro Manned Mars Flight
It can be accident, like Airforce One or Marine One crash down.
President Nixon flew also as a passenger aboard Airliners !
on Health of Nixon http://www.doctorzebra.com/prez/g37.htm
he had thrombosis problem
 
upps my error
i look again on Mission in detail next weekend

on Nixon death in this TL
please bevor 1970 (the shutdown of Saturn V production line)
and bevor 1973 Spiro Agnew Resignation on October 10.
because He is pro Manned Mars Flight
It can be accident, like Airforce One or Marine One crash down.
President Nixon flew also as a passenger aboard Airliners !
on Health of Nixon http://www.doctorzebra.com/prez/g37.htm
he had thrombosis problem

Yes, I was planning on having Nixon die just a few days after Apollo 11 (or 9, depending on how I go with this*), while Agnew is very enthusiastic about Mars, and before Nixon can shut that down. As for Nixon's death, I like assassination better. If the CIA blames communist activity, we might persuade the public to support a war that leads to a democratic, capitalist Vietnam. Or we might turn the public further against it, leading to faster withdrawal. If the CIA blames the communists. That part's optional, but I think having Nixon dead is necessary for a Mars program.

*=I was thinking, if LEM 3 (Apollo 9's LEM) is finished sooner, we can launch that on an Apollo 8 circumlunar flight, so Apollo 8 is like Apollo 10, and Apollo 9 is like Apollo 11. This might save two Saturns for later.
 

RalofTyr

Banned
January 26th, 1984, saw the first Soviet Launch to Mars, beating the American's MEM program, head by Von Braun. Massive cost overlays and technical failures has pushed the launch well past 1985. Many have criticized Von Braun's "Battleship Galatica" appoarch to going to Mars; they claim the US just doesn't have the technical knowhow. The Soviets, however, just copied the Apollo 11 concept, abit larger and capable of a 9 month voyage. But before they launched their crew, they launched a return vehicle a year ago. The vehicle is currently resting on the Martian surface, awaiting its crew.

Instead of pursuing the Moon, the Soviet Union focused on long-term space living. Their space stations they've had in orbit gave them valuable experience.

October 31st, 1984, The Soviets enter the atmosphere and land, though, 100+ miles from their Return Vehicle. That's OK. They have a week's worht of Oxygen in their Soviet Mars Rover. Their last trasmission was informing Mission Control that they were heading towards the Return Vehicle. The Soviets, being unfamiliar wit the Martian climate and with a compressed amount of time, landed their crew during the Southern Martian Summer, when, dust devils and dust storms are frequent. They lost contract shortly there after when the Soviet Marian Orbiter picked up a massive dust storm over their area. It is concluded they got disorentated in the dust storm and couldn't find the Return Vehicle. The Soviet Union recognizes them as Heros and the first men to walk on another panet.

A second Soviet Mission, launched in November 1984, arrived in September, 1985. They found the Return vehicle, did some researched, waited for their launch window and returned safely to Earth, in 1986.

The Von Braun MEM Mission was scrapped. By now, the US economy was facing a severe recession in 1986.

A third mission was launched in 1987 with another Return Vehicle. Their mission was scientific and long-term colonization. The Soviet Mars Orbiter found the Soviet Mars Rover. The third mission investigated, but found no bodies of Cosmonauts. It was only until several missions later, in '92 did a Soviet Research Rover find a body. Apparently, this Cosmonaut broke his face shield, probably due to disorientation from the storm. His body was almost completely decomposed.

The Americans spent millions to develope a pen that would write in space. The Russians used a pencil...
 
...

The Americans spent millions to develope a pen that would write in space. The Russians used a pencil...
-sigh- and you were doing so well...

This ISN'T TRUE. Graphite pencils are dangerous in microgravity - if the tips break off, they can get anywhere (i.e. into circuitry) and cause damage.

Also, NASA didn't ask Fisher to develop the 'Space Pen' - they were doing just fine with grease pencils.

Sorry, this is just an annoying urban myth (among many) that keeps coming up.
 
January 26th, 1984, saw the first Soviet Launch to Mars, beating the American's MEM program, head by Von Braun. Massive cost overlays and technical failures has pushed the launch well past 1985. Many have criticized Von Braun's "Battleship Galatica" appoarch to going to Mars; they claim the US just doesn't have the technical knowhow. The Soviets, however, just copied the Apollo 11 concept, abit larger and capable of a 9 month voyage. But before they launched their crew, they launched a return vehicle a year ago. The vehicle is currently resting on the Martian surface, awaiting its crew.

Instead of pursuing the Moon, the Soviet Union focused on long-term space living. Their space stations they've had in orbit gave them valuable experience.

October 31st, 1984, The Soviets enter the atmosphere and land, though, 100+ miles from their Return Vehicle. That's OK. They have a week's worht of Oxygen in their Soviet Mars Rover. Their last trasmission was informing Mission Control that they were heading towards the Return Vehicle. The Soviets, being unfamiliar wit the Martian climate and with a compressed amount of time, landed their crew during the Southern Martian Summer, when, dust devils and dust storms are frequent. They lost contract shortly there after when the Soviet Marian Orbiter picked up a massive dust storm over their area. It is concluded they got disorentated in the dust storm and couldn't find the Return Vehicle. The Soviet Union recognizes them as Heros and the first men to walk on another panet.

A second Soviet Mission, launched in November 1984, arrived in September, 1985. They found the Return vehicle, did some researched, waited for their launch window and returned safely to Earth, in 1986.

The Von Braun MEM Mission was scrapped. By now, the US economy was facing a severe recession in 1986.

A third mission was launched in 1987 with another Return Vehicle. Their mission was scientific and long-term colonization. The Soviet Mars Orbiter found the Soviet Mars Rover. The third mission investigated, but found no bodies of Cosmonauts. It was only until several missions later, in '92 did a Soviet Research Rover find a body. Apparently, this Cosmonaut broke his face shield, probably due to disorientation from the storm. His body was almost completely decomposed.

The Americans spent millions to develope a pen that would write in space. The Russians used a pencil...

Besides the annoying canard at the bottom, I don't know if this is especially plausible. You're essentially having the Russians do Mars Direct a decade before the idea was even thought of OTL...I don't think they're going to come up with that, given that the Soviet space program is an amazing model of how not to run a space program...or for that matter a lawn-mowing program. If you thought inter-center rivalries in NASA were bad...
 

RalofTyr

Banned
Besides the annoying canard at the bottom, I don't know if this is especially plausible. You're essentially having the Russians do Mars Direct a decade before the idea was even thought of OTL...I don't think they're going to come up with that, given that the Soviet space program is an amazing model of how not to run a space program...or for that matter a lawn-mowing program. If you thought inter-center rivalries in NASA were bad...


Are you telling me you've read every Soviet proposition for a Mars Manned Mission and they've never once considered using the same plan as the American Moon Landing?

And just because there's inter-center rivalries, doesn't mean they can't get things done.
 
Are you telling me you've read every Soviet proposition for a Mars Manned Mission and they've never once considered using the same plan as the American Moon Landing?

No and no, but what you are proposing seems more similar to Mars Direct, which resembles neither. I'm not sure what "American Moon Landing" is supposed to mean, anyways; do you mean that they use a honking great rocket to launch a tiny capsule with a couple of guys in it and a little lander to Mars, where the lander separates from the capsule, lands, and flies back a couple of hours later, upon which the capsule fires to return to Earth? Because that is not even remotely plausible, and cross my heart and hope to die but I pray (and I am really not the praying sort) that no Soviet space people proposed anything even slightly similar.

Remember that a conjunction-type mission takes about two years to fly there and back, and even opposition-class trajectories take well over a year, and spend a minimum of 30 days at Mars. You need a "Battlestar Galacata" spaceship to do an "American Moon Landing"-like mission, simply because anything smaller can't even possible carry enough fuel and supplies to last all the way there and back. You have to do that or ISRU, and no one had both thought of and popularized ISRU for such early missions by the mid-80s (though O'Neill had certainly done so for more advanced developments), so I just don't see the Soviets as likely to do it.

And just because there's inter-center rivalries, doesn't mean they can't get things done.

Yes, but it doesn't help when your best rocket engine designer and your best manager not only refuse to work together (and being heads of design bureaus, that essentially is like Marshall and Johnson not working together), but actively work to undermine each other. It really doesn't help that when said manager dies and his successor proves to be much less competent, the rocket designer essentially focuses on playing politics and taking over his bureau instead of actually trying to help his county's space program. The total lack of control from the people supposedly overseeing these children doesn't aid in development either, and neither does their lack of care about what the children are making. It was...pretty darn bad.
 
I've been thinking of a spaceplane I call X-25, which is a merger between X-15 and X-20. It is the size of an X-20, but it uses a solid booster to launch off a B-52. Would that work?
I'm afraid not. It'd face all the huge costs of the Shuttle dealing with reentry. Keeping spaceplanes from frying turned out to be much more expensive than the pioneering space generation anticipated. Only now, with alot of heavy computing assists, do we maybe have a solution called waveriding); though it's still in experimental and UAV-sized, so maybe we DON'T know yet. Waveriding was invented decades ago, but was useless back then because we couldn't do the simulations needed to find a useful configuration.

Sorry....
 
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