Esopo
Banned
Hey
I dont think that federico living 20 years more could have changed much things. His decline had begun already when he died. It had actually began even before the defeat of Parma. Imperial forces had endured defeats both Milan and in Reggio. The excommunication was making the coalition against him stronger, and many cities which seemed to be loyal to the empire had began to change side.
basically federico II was defeated by the north italian commons strenght. During that century (unlike at the times of emperor Otto, who had actually managed to defeat the not-yet-developed commons), northern italy was actually the richest area of europe, able to arm enough forces to defend its popolous cities and to submit it was an incredible hard task. Federico exstinguished the great strenght of the south in his assaults against the north. That war wasnt impossible to be won, but it was very difficult. Imho, his greatest mistake was in its policies about the church. He had, more than once, the chance to extend his influence on the church. Even if he is known as the emperor who fought the pope, he actually respected the church and was very reluctant to fight against it. He could have secured Umbria and Marche while keeping Rome under his influence (both in 1237 -when the Pope had actually lost his control on Rome because of a riot, and was restored on the throne by federico himself- and in 1241, when the emperor was about to enter rome when Gregorio died, he could have managed to control the papacy, even if maybe not for so long), hence building a central italian state controlled by an italian king. Its not hard to imagine that such a kingdom (which wouldnt have extinguished its forces in a long war in the north) could be able to gradually expand in northern italy in the following centuries, like the french monarchy did. Instead he tried to fight a war which was far from his heartland, leaving his most dangerous foe, the pope, free to act as the center and fule of the coalition against him. When finally Innocenzo left for Lyon, he had already built a coalition both in germany and italy against Federico, and it was too late...
Anyway he is a very fascinating carachter for a TL. An italian nation ruled by the Ostafi dinasty (hohenstaufen
), and a pope forced to leave for the north or for france would be the powerhouse of europe, and it could see a national church centuries before northern europe.