So I am still working on my "When the Levee Broke" timeline (aka "Lincoln Dead in 1861"), and I was thinking about the butterflies that would result. Hannibal Hamlin would be president in 1861 and would very likely win the presidential election in 1864. As a result, he would be president when in OTL Napoleon III pulled France out of Mexico and withdrew support for Emperor Maximilian I of the Second Mexican Empire. As a result liberal forces who supported Benito Juarez, who had previously been the president until the French invasion of Mexico in 1861, ousted Maximilian and reinstalled a republican government.
One of the main reasons for liberal success in Mexico was funding and support from the United States which, adhering to the Monroe Doctrine and fearing an imperial power on the US doorstep, sought to oust French influence. President Andrew Johnson even threatened war with France if they did not end their imperialism in Mexico.
Now, in TTL, Andrew Johnson is never president. While Hannibal Hamlin and his administration would almost certainly not tolerate French intervention in Mexico, there wouldn't be much he could do about it. In TTL, the Civil War lasts a couple years longer than in OTL, ending in 1867 rather than 1865. In addition Reconstruction takes a lot more military resources due to a larger, more-entrenched Confederacy. So while Hamlin would probably threaten war over French imperialism, it is unlikely that he could actually back up his words with action and Napoleon III might call his bluff.
Anyway, I'm just curious: what would need to occur in order to create a successful Second Mexican Empire? Is it a far-fetched notion that I'm pursuing for the "lol butterfly effect" or is there something to my brainstorming?
In addition I have what I think might be a far-fetched idea. In order to sate US fears over the Second Mexican Empire, I had an idea of Napoleon III, with Maximilian's support, ceding the Baja peninsula to the United States as a sign of good will between the nations. How plausible is this idea? I've been unable to find any information regarding US or even Mexican interest (beyond the fact that the peninsula was already under Mexican control, and had been previously defended from colonization by US invaders) in the peninsula. Like I said it's a crazy idea and just something I've brainstormed, but I'd like to float it by the community before I completely dismiss it.
One of the main reasons for liberal success in Mexico was funding and support from the United States which, adhering to the Monroe Doctrine and fearing an imperial power on the US doorstep, sought to oust French influence. President Andrew Johnson even threatened war with France if they did not end their imperialism in Mexico.
Now, in TTL, Andrew Johnson is never president. While Hannibal Hamlin and his administration would almost certainly not tolerate French intervention in Mexico, there wouldn't be much he could do about it. In TTL, the Civil War lasts a couple years longer than in OTL, ending in 1867 rather than 1865. In addition Reconstruction takes a lot more military resources due to a larger, more-entrenched Confederacy. So while Hamlin would probably threaten war over French imperialism, it is unlikely that he could actually back up his words with action and Napoleon III might call his bluff.
Anyway, I'm just curious: what would need to occur in order to create a successful Second Mexican Empire? Is it a far-fetched notion that I'm pursuing for the "lol butterfly effect" or is there something to my brainstorming?
In addition I have what I think might be a far-fetched idea. In order to sate US fears over the Second Mexican Empire, I had an idea of Napoleon III, with Maximilian's support, ceding the Baja peninsula to the United States as a sign of good will between the nations. How plausible is this idea? I've been unable to find any information regarding US or even Mexican interest (beyond the fact that the peninsula was already under Mexican control, and had been previously defended from colonization by US invaders) in the peninsula. Like I said it's a crazy idea and just something I've brainstormed, but I'd like to float it by the community before I completely dismiss it.
