A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2002

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Maybe the word imperialistic. Gibraltar was ceded to Britain under certain conditions (the Utrech treaty you know), what most of the spaniards want is that treaty to be granted: British or spanish sovereinity, no independence, no territorial waters, devolution of the neutral area that was illegally occupied during the XIX century, no smuggling,...

As for imperialistic how would you define a nation that enters in a civil war in other nation, occupies one of her ports and claim it for herself, expels the local population... I have just noticed that the word is not imperialistic, it's piracy.

As you mention below the 'civil' war was a major international war over various issues but most of all whether Hapsburg's or Bourbon's should rule Spain. It wasn't a case of Britain seizing land while Spain was split by a civil war.

Are you honesty saying Spain would happily accept British sovereignty? This disagrees with everything I had heard about, from Spanish sources as well as Gibraltarian. The views I have hears is that Spain has an automatic and inalien right to rule the area, regardless of what the population wish.

Steve
 
Ask and ye shall receive. Since today there were no updates during the day, I bring you an uberupdate. I hope the Interlude intrigues you. At least it gives a twist to what would otherwise be a rather predictable TL:


WAR ON THE STRAITS, DAY 1: JULY 17TH 2002
1PM: In Cairo, Algiers, Damascus and other muslim cities, the first mobs concentrate in front of Spanish embassies.

In the Canary Islands hundreds of tourists try to take a plane to flee the islands, only to find out that the airspace is closed. In the following days, restrictions will be gradually lifted, although the Spanish airspace around the Straits will remain closed for the entire war. At the Gando airbase, the alert is lifted as a Moroccan attack becomes more unlikely.

1.30 PM: first news of the new government’s composition are filtered to several newspapers. The new PM will address the nation at 3 pm

At Madrid’s ministry of defense, Spanish officials offer the first war report to the international press. They confirm that Perejil has been taken, that several plazas are under attack, targets as south as Ksar el Kebir have been attacked and that the frigate Numancia was put out of combat and suffered the loss of many crewmen.

In America, the Eastern Seaboard wakes up with the most unexpected news of a war between two countries. Many people thinks that the War on Terror has reached a new stage until they notice the Spanish and Moroccan flags. The few images available (Spanish f-18 and Moroccan mirages dogfighting over the sea, the numancia burning, panic scenes at Tarifa, Las Palmas and Casablanca, Spanish commandos in Perejil, both Kings speaking to their nations…) are repeated again and again while analysts and commentators theorize.

At Sarajevo, the SFOR command decides to disarm and canton both the Spanish and Moroccan contingents to prevent any incident. Spanish contingents in Kosovo and Afghanistan are also closed in their bases in the event of attacks.

At the Strait Air Command Bases, planes are readied for a second attack on Moroccan airfields. Unknown to them, many Moroccan planes are already flying towards more secure locations in central and southern morocco.

At Ceuta and Melilla, civilians are being evacuated by the hundreds in ferries and military transports, but everybody is aware that the Moroccan attack will start before too long.

2PM: first contacts between the new foreign affairs minister and European counterparts.

In the first combat action of Spanish submarines since the civil war, 4 subs sink the Moroccan fleet at Al-Hoceima base.

2.30: The Moroccan assault team has managed to get a foothold on Velez despite losing an helicopter.

In Madrid, the police keeps receiving reports of isolated racist attacks. These incidents will soon spread to Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla and Granada. In morocco many westerners unfortunate enough to not be near an embassy or consulate are harassed or beaten by angry mobs.

At San Javier, Armilla, Talavera and Morón, the third wave of Spanish airplanes takes off. At that moment more than half of the available Spanish airforce is in the air, some 70 planes including F-18, Mirage F-1 and even old F-5 fighter bombers. More planes from the airbases at Getafe, Zaragoza, Son Sant Joan, Santiago and Valladolid are on their way south for a 4th wave that will hopefully destroy the Moroccan airforce.

3pm: Visibly altered, Mariano Rajoy makes his first speech as Prime Minister surrounded by the other members of his cabinet. Spaniards are surprised to see so many antagonizing politicians put together.

The planes of the 3rd wave fly over Andalucia and the Western Mediterranean. People abandoning the shores is stunned at seeing so many warplanes flying at very low height. Footage of the planes heading south is soon being broadcasted around the world.

In northern morocco, troops are moving towards Ceuta and Melilla. The troops facing Ceuta have to deploy between the wreckage of the first Spanish strike. The Spanish commanders at the plazas are ready for the imminent attack.

In Cartagena, the rest of the Mediterranean fleet is being mobilized towards the combat zone to support the defenders of the plazas with naval fire.


3.45: The last defenders of Velez surrender to the Moroccan assaulters. Images of the Moroccan flag flying over Velez will soon be the next icon of the war.

4.00: the Spanish planes arrive to their objectives: Air bases nr 1, 2 and 3 of the Royal Moroccan Air Force at Kenitra, Rabat and Meknes. Resistance is weak and in a few minutes the 3 airbases have suffered extensive damage.

4.30: the Spanish fighters withdraw north after what they think it is a major blow to the Moroccan airforce.

In the Gulf of Cadiz, the Principe de Asturias battlegroup is ordered to move south to cover a bigger part of Moroccan territory.

5.00: A Spanish cultural centre in Damascus is attacked by Molotov cocktails. Racist incidents (spurred by both Moroccans and whites) are already being reported by the hundreds all over Spain.

The main land clashes start when Moroccan artillery starts bombing Spanish positions at the outskirts of both Ceuta and Melilla. Few minutes later, Moroccan infantry starts to advance supported by T-72 tanks and APC.

5.15: the last wave of Spanish fighters takes off from their airbases; while at the same time the Moroccan airforce drives north to engage them in a desperate last stand.

An emergency meeting of the UN security council calls for an immediate ceasefire. No one seems to care.

6.00: In Ceuta, the Moroccan attack bogs down at the city gates due to naval support and few organization. In Melilla, though, the Moroccans are lucky to advance towards the airport and bypass some Spanish’ defensive positions.

12 hours after the first helicopters arrived to Perejil, both nations are into total war footing, fighting in land and air over the control of the Strait.

Moroccan artillery based off Al-hoceima starts shelling the Spanish outpost at alhucemas, in preparation of an airborne assault mirroring that of Perejil. Unlike the Spaniards, the Moroccans must assault the rock as soon as possible before the Spaniards can gather enough air and naval support around the lesser plazas.

6.30: Air battle over Northern morocco as the surviving Moroccan airforce attacks the last wave of Spanish planes. The move surprises the Spaniards; in the following dogfight they manage to repeal the Moroccan attack but losing several planes to both air and ground fire. This will turn out to be the war’s greatest air battle.

7.00 Moroccan marines cross the strait between the Moroccan coast and the Chafarinas islands in light boats hoping to surprise the garrison there.

The surviving Spanish planes withdraw north after damaging what is left of Moroccan airbases.

Incidents in Spanish embassies and cultural centers are widespread all over the world.

7.30: the Moroccan command lands and occupies Isabel II island and prepares for a landing at the only inhabited island in the archipel: Congress Island.

In Ceuta and Melilla Moroccan forces progress slowly despite the stubborn Legion resistance and the Spanish air and naval support.

8.00: Moroccan transport helicopters supported by attack helicopters assault Alhucemas. The garrison will surrender after a brief fight.

9.00: Moroccan marines land at Congress island only to find out that the Spanish garrison is waiting for them. It is interesting to note that most of the Chafarinas garrison was made up of Moroccan-born soldiers enlisted in the Spanish army; despite this they fight bravely. The battle of Congress Island will last the entire night.

Around 10 PM the sun is setting above the fighting area. In both Spain and Morocco, people goes to bed with a mixture of fear, anger and pride. The old saying about Spaniards constantly bickering with one another but uniting when faced a common enemy will prove to be true in the following days., when the usually marginal Spanish patriotism experiences an unprecedented rise. Many tourists trying to leave both countries, though, have a hard night sleeping in improvised mats at consulates, embassies or airports.

Night brings a small lull to the combat operations, except in Melilla and the Chafarinas.


INTERLUDE

Madrid, at the presidential bunker under the Moncloa Palace; 22.30 PM

-It was built in the 1980’s just in case the Soviets went bonkers – Mariano Rajoy says while he leads the other members of the emergency government through the dark corridors to the War Room- It is supposed to be able to resist a direct nuclear hit, although we have never tested that properly.

Nobody laughs at the joke attempt. One by one, the members of the government, alongside with several generals and King Juan Carlos enter the War Room in the deepest level of the bunker.

Once everybody is seated, General Sanz is the first to speak:

-Well, ladies and gentlemen, what you have read in these hours is what we call Plan Blue. Plan Blue is the standard contingency plan to repel a Moroccan aggression on the plazas. We have been working on it, refining and adapting it to every changing circumstance ever since we gave the Protectorate back to the moors in ’56. Since this was the most obvious scenario for any foreign aggression to Spanish soil, me and my predecessors have been testing and refining this plan in an almost obsessive way. You can believe me when I tell you almost every possible circumstances are covered by Plan Blue. After these first confuse hours, from now on the war will be more or less going on autopilot. The Moroccans can still have some little surprise for us, just like that smart gamble withdrawing their most modern planes to improvised airbases out of our reach, but now that we have air superiority over the straits, things will go smoother.

-Which leaves out the question of Melilla –Rodriguez Zapatero still feels a little bit uncomfortable as Vicepresident, and much more uncomfortable in this dark, crowded room.

-The situation in Melilla is stable at the moment. The first strike has been repealed, albeit many more Moroccan troops are on their way. So far, there have been no issues with the civilian population; besides the fact that there is a civilian population.

Everybody grins, thinking for a moment at the political and international implications of the Battle of Melilla becoming a massacre.

-But we can talk about that later- King Juan Carlos’s voice sounds even more nervous than has been in the last hours- As you may have guessed, we are not meeting in this room 40 meters under the street level to speak about matters we have already been arguing in another, more comfortable room up there in the Palace. What we are to discuss here is another, more serious, more secret matter.

-¿And that is…? – President Rajoy inquires after a few seconds of intrigued silence.

-The matter is, Mariano, that Spain is screwed –Everybody stares for a moment surprised to see the King cursing and giving such a blunt statement-. Not in the military terrain, where we have managed to get a big advantage, but in what’s going to happen later. No matter that we win or lose, we’re going to have a big, angry, unstable neighbour right under us, with a good deal of our population having been born in that big, angry neighbour. When the guns stop, our troubles will have only begun. See how since past September the world seems to have gone crazy. It will go crazier, whether we want it or not. When Admiral Moreno (and God knows he was just executing the best available option) ordered the attack on the Moroccan artillery, he also opened a big can of worms. And now we will have to deal with it for years, maybe decades. Think about terror attacks, military occupation of parts of Morocco… whatever.

After a brief silence, General Sanz speaks.

-Which is why Plan Indigo was outlined.

-Exactly.

-Plan Indigo, my fellow ministers, is based on this very scenario. We have won the war, but in such a way that the arab world and our southern enemies fucking hate us. Plan Indigo outlines a war strategy to achieve this aim: “Hey, we’re screwed anyway. Why at least not getting some profit? And I mean political and economical profit.”.

Everybody, especially the socialist members, look at him, horrified and intrigued at the same time.
-It sounds easier than it seems. Sergeant, if you want…

The general’s aide appears, carrying a box full of folders and papers. He gives one to each member of the meeting.

-This- explains General Sanz- is the last, updated version of Plan Indigo. It involves three subplans in chronological order: Blue, Pink and Black. You can skip the Blue part if you wish, since it is more or less the same Plan Blue you already know. Now, about the other parts…

Everybody starts reading. When they finish, a few minutes later, Vicepresident Zapatero is the first to talk.

-It is a very….risky gamble, to say the least. Although the gains, if these reports are accurate, could be immense.

-Enough to have paid for the war in 4-5 years, according to the most optimistic calculations.

-However, it relies on a very risky operation that will severely strain our transport and logistics capabilities. This looks like the Perejil operation but 100 times bigger. If something goes wrong, it could be the worst disaster for our armies since… since the Armada?

-Your analysis is accurate, Vicepresident.

-So what are we doing here, ladies and gentlemen- King Juan Carlos interrupts- is to decide whether we implement Plan Indigo or not. The decision must be made as soon as possible, since several preliminary preparations must be started right now. If you have read everything carefully, the rest of the world must think that we were forced by circumstance to adopt this strategy, not that this was something we were aiming at. That means that every preparations must be carefully timed and that foreign involvement, besides the one outlined in the Pink and Black sections, must be kept to the minimum. Which is why we are reunited in this bunker, where we can be sure that no microphones, not even American ones, are hearing us.

-Which directs us to another issue. Minister Durán?

The new Foreign Affairs minister , Josep Duran I Lleida, speaks:

-General?

-yours, Josep, is the most difficult role in this little charade. As someone said, “the last thing we need now is some idiot proposing a mediation plan”- Only a few of the government members get the reference and chukle-. You have managed to get EU support about weapon supplying and satellite vigilance. In some moment, someone will come up with a mediation plan or, god forbid, military help. Your task if Indigo is adopted, Josep, is to abort those movements while at the same time not revealing our true intentions. Will you be able to do so?

-It will be difficult, General Sanz, but, if it is necessary, I will do it.

-Excellent. So now, members of the cabinet, after reading the plan and discussing it, do we, as the government of Spain, approve adopting Indigo or should we stick to Blue?

At 1130 PM, the aide of General Sanz sends an encrypted message from the Bunker to the Ministry of Defense. The code means that all operational and strategic plans must be switched to Indigo condition.
 
Well Spain is signing its death warrant. Should have called the Algerians.

Ah well. "Pulls out the popcorn and drinks for everyone"
 
What's Plan Indigo?

Like I was going to say it now. :p

Don't worry, it's nothing spectacular (nukes, death rays, etc); I'm trying to keep this as realistic as possible, but I had the idea a couple of days ago and thought it would be interesting to give a little twist to the Timeline.
 
Nope, ERC did not condemn the occupation of Perejil; although I'm taking the data from Wikipedia.

Your are right. I have made some research and it seems that ERC vote in blank.

Are you Spanish too, Tocomocho? If so, stay tuned, you'll enjoy the setup of the emergency government.

Veryyy funny development of things, no joke. :D The Presidential couple is probably the most boring ever to reach the Moncloa.

I especially enjoyed the interlude part. Very misterious.
 
Sorry for no updating yesterday; although I think I may be able to pull 2 updates today:

DAY 2: JULY 18TH 2002

July 18th has been a significant date in Spanish life since 1936. That day started the civil war, whose shadow still keeps haunting Spanish society and politics. For almost 40 years, it was a day for the Spaniards to celebrate the tyrant and the end of democracy; for the past 25 it has ben a normal summer day for most Spaniards, except the most left and right wing ones. In this day, the war that started 20 hours before will reach new peaks of violence, while the great powers are unable to stop it.


Casualties in both sides have already reached the hundreds. The Moroccans have lost many men, artillery, a good deal of their most modern aircraft and their entire fleet at the Mediterranean sea. The Spaniards have also lost several planes, a frigate, and several dozens of soldiers, along with 2 of the 5 plazas. Only time will tell if the Spanish public is able to sustain these casualty rates without asking for a ceasefire.


0.00AM: in the Ministry of Defense, activity becomes frenetic as the first steps are being taken to adopt battle plans to Indigo. For the first hours or days, the military effects of this will be negligible: some units receiving slightly different orders, some others not being deployed, some others receiving different supply priorities.

The fighting in Congress Island rages on as both sides are unable to advance. The Moroccan marines are bogged down in the beach while the small garrison is unable to repeal them.

In Ceuta and Melilla, fighting has slowed down due to darkness, allowing a faster evacuation of civilians. Approximately ¼ of both cities’ population is already safe in mainland Spain, where a serious problem with refugees will arise in the following days. However, both commanders know that the new day will bring new, fresh Moroccan troops to attack, while they cannot expect many reinforcements. The commandant at Melilla receives authorization to surrender if the situation becomes unsustainable for both his troops and the remaining civilian population.

In most major Spanish cities, policemen are busy repressing racist incidents and rioting.

3AM: After hours of conversations, the Spanish diplomats have managed to ensure almost unlimited oil, ammo and weapons supplies from their EU counterparts. Even the initially reluctant French agree to this.

The Spanish consulate at Karachi is burned by demonstrators

Pacifist groups start a demonstration at the Spanish embassy in Canberra to protest for what they see as an imperialist aggression at a helpless 3rd world country. This is the first of many similar demonstrations that will be held across the world in the following days. In many cases, they end up in chaotic 3-sided riots when the protestors meet rightwingers and neonazis who support the Spaniards, and arab immigrants protesting against them.

Taking advantage of the night, the remaining Moroccan airforce launches a raid on Melilla. The short raid doesn’t cause much material damage on the city defenses, but is effective on demoralizing the defenders. A similar raid supporting the advance on Ceuta fails when Spanish planes destroy the small Moroccan force.

The defenders of Congress Island are finally relieved when the frigate Reina Sofía, en route from Cartagena to the strait, opens fire on the Moroccan forces at the Chafarinas.

Spanish prisoners from Velez and Alhucemas arrive to improvised camps on Northern Morocco.

In Washington, the US government has finally decided for a neutral policy. Neither side seems to be willing to negotiate, and while Morocco seems to have been the attacked country, Spain is a valuable NATO ally. Surprisingly, the Spanish diplomats do not seem to insist too much on getting US support. President Bush “indecisiveness” will be very attacked in the following days.

4AM: Commandos from the Rabassa base arrive to Alboran Island in several helicopters, en route to Congress Island, to help repeal the Moroccan landing.

6AM: Radio anchorman and right-wing pundit Federico Jimenez Losantos [note to non-spaniards: FJL is like having Rush Limbaugh, Bill O’reilly and Lord Haw-Haw all in the same person] starts his popular morning program. In an enraged speech, he praises ex-president Aznar for inflicting a decisive blow to islamofascists and reminds the audience that “the greatest democracy ever, the US of A, interned in camps all the Japanese population during WWII. I can’t see why we can’t do the same with the shitmoors [literal translation of the Spanish insult moromierda]. Even if the coward leftists and Catalonians whine about it, that will only make them look like bigger pansies than they are”. This inflamed speech will contribute to worsen the security situation in most big cities.

In Ceuta and Melilla combats resume as day breaks out.

In Melilla, the defenders of the city are beginning to be overwhelmed by the Moroccan pressure despite the air and naval support. Moroccan tanks manage to break out and occupy the airport landing strips, while a Legion regiment tries to hold onto the airport terminal and control tower. Several other defensive strongpoints are under very heavy Moroccan pressure. The Spanish commander knows that he can’t hold much longer.

In Ceuta, the situation, while difficult, is not as desperate as in the other city. While the mauled Numancia has withdrawn to Rota, supported by the Navarra, the Alvaro de Bazán and other two frigates are providing naval support to the city defenders. Even so, when several Moroccan fresh regiments supported by M-60, Leclerc and t-72 tanks, the Spaniards have to abandon several defensive positions at the city outskirts and withdraw towards the industrial parks that surround Ceuta.

24 hours after the battle for perejil started, and since the island has no military value, the surviving commandos, along with the Moroccan prisoners and the bodies of their fallen comrades, are evacuated from the island, leaving only a Spanish flag on top of it.

At the base of the Brunete Armoured Division near Madrid, activity is frenetic as the division [it actually is more of a reinforced brigade, but meh] prepares to move south in case a landing on northern morocco becomes unavoidable. Similar preparations are undertaken at marine division headquarters in Rota, the Light Airborne Brigade at Pontevedra, and the Guzman El Bueno Mechanized Division at Murcia.

A couple of regiments from the Brunete, btw, is being kept apart from the rest of the division. Instead of readying the tanks into the transports, they’re being moved to the division warehouses to be repainted…

7AM: Commandos supported by attack helicopters land at the northern shore of Congress Island to support the already faltering garrison.

American surveillance detects an unnatural amount of encrypted communications from the Ministry of Defense to the Spanish embassy at Algiers.

7.30 AM: The first Remember the Numancia stickers start to leave the printing presses at Valladolid and Valencia. They are an initiative of a patriotic (and opportunistic) businessman. Thousands will be sold during the war. Similar Remember El Horra, or even Remember 711 stickers will also be sold in Morocco and most arab countries.

8AM: trapped at the beach, after 10 hours of sustained combat (in some moments even hand-to-hand combat) and with their light boats sunken by the Spanish helicopters, the Moroccan marines at Congress Island surrender. Finally, the Spaniards have been able to repel a Moroccan land attack. News of this first land victory of the war will son arrive to Spain, only to be shadowed by more important developments in the following hours.

830 AM: 30 hours of airspace closure in Spain have driven air traffic patterns all over Europe into chaos. Thousands of tourists have decided to leave the country by road, leading to amazing traffic jams at the border passes with France. However, as hours pass and the feared Moroccan strike fails to materialize, many tourists decide to stay.

9AM: Polish and American SFOR soldiers take the role of their Spanish and Moroccan counterparts as peacekeeping forces around Mostar.

An engineer regiment from the Legion arrives to the Lanzarote airport and starts works to enlarge the landing strips so warplanes can operate from there.

930AM; The situation in Melilla is getting worse for the city defenders. Moroccan numerical superiority and the city situation are making up for the Spanish air superiority. The Spanish commander contacts with Madrid to report about the Moroccan assault and the danger of a pitched street battle.

940AM: After a brief conversation with General Sanz Roldán and President Rajoy, the Melilla commandant is authorized to start an evacuation of as many troops as possible and then surrender the city before his men are overrun.

Despite the fact that Spanish plans predicted a Moroccan land advantage in the first 48 hours of conflict, things are looking grim for the Spanish in North Africa…
 
Why do the Spanish forces stop fighting at night? I would have thought they'd have access to standard NATO night fighting equipment in some quantities (likely not enough for everyone of course).
 
The equipment situation of the Spanish Army is rather crappy, and I doubt that the spanish forces already deployed have night fighting equipment in enough cuantities to make a difference.

Anyway, I must recognize that my knowledge of military stuff is centered about the WWII-era and I think that my description of military actions is perhaps too influenced by WWII-era tactics and equipments. My bad. :eek:
 
The closure of the straits to navigation is already having effect into world navigation and economy. European trade stocks have opened with significant losses. Madrid’s stock exchange session is suspended at 12.15 PM to prevent a total breakdown.

Do you know the sheer number of ships and tonnage of traffic that passes via the Straight of Gibraltar every day?

I think that the economic effects of a closure of the Straight would be so great that the USA, UK, France and Italy would be involved very quickly to bring about peace.

The USA has a vested milirary interest in keeping the straight open as it directly affects supply efforts to Israel, Turkey and it's own fleets in and around the Med and the Middle East. Sure, the USA can go the opposite way around but it's a slower, longer and costlier method.

The impact on Italian, French and UK shipping would also be huge.

As well, I simply cannot fathom the UK allowing a full fledged conflict to erupt next to Gibraltar.

So whilst the first shots have been fired in anger, at signs that the conflict was going to become large enough to close the straight interested nations would have put a huge amount of pressure on Morocco and Spain to 'chill' and find a diplomatic solution.

Furthermore, whilst I don't think that the USA or UK would have chose sides in this conflict I can certainly see the possibility of them sending combat ships (perhaps even Italy?) to the Straight to make certain it stays open to commerce and that it does not become a combat zone.

With the threat of sanctions, impact on world markets and political pressure the firing would have ceased very shortly after it began. Regardless of the who fired first and regardless time it is in DC or London when this began.
 
The equipment situation of the Spanish Army is rather crappy, and I doubt that the spanish forces already deployed have night fighting equipment in enough cuantities to make a difference.

Anyway, I must recognize that my knowledge of military stuff is centered about the WWII-era and I think that my description of military actions is perhaps too influenced by WWII-era tactics and equipments. My bad. :eek:

The Spanish equipment is crappy?

They use NATO, US, and Euro equipment man.

They may not have the biggest, best, experienced, superb fighting force in the West, but they shouldnt be bested by the Morroccans in anything but ambushes and geurrilla tactics at the best.
 
The Spanish equipment is crappy?

They use NATO, US, and Euro equipment man.

They may not have the biggest, best, experienced, superb fighting force in the West, but they shouldnt be bested by the Morroccans in anything but ambushes and geurrilla tactics at the best.

It's not that spanish equipment is crappy per se; it is state of the art NATO equipment for sure. It 's just that, given our military spending and what several military acquaintances have told me, I don't think all of our soldiers can have such luxuries as night fighting gear. :(

@Blitzhund: Very good point, I thought that closing the Straits would have a significant effect on world trade, but not on such a scale. I am addressing that in the new update that should be finished and posted in a couple of hours. With their new strategy the spaniards want to finish the war in their own terms and don't want any of the big dogs messing on it. :D
 
The equipment situation of the Spanish Army is rather crappy, and I doubt that the spanish forces already deployed have night fighting equipment in enough cuantities to make a difference.

Why not?

I'd certainly say the Spanish Army isn't the best amongst those of the Continent, although few of these possess any extensive combat experience since 1945, and it is still in the transitional stage becoming a professional force, but they are equipped to NATO standards and participate in exercises and overseas missions.

In any case, few armed forces issue kit in adequate numbers in peacetime, but in wartime the warehouses magically open and restrictions are forgotten. Or they order/borrow from overseas and have them flown in within 48-72 hours.
 
Do you know the sheer number of ships and tonnage of traffic that passes via the Straight of Gibraltar every day?

I think that the economic effects of a closure of the Straight would be so great that the USA, UK, France and Italy would be involved very quickly to bring about peace.

The USA has a vested military interest in keeping the straight open as it directly affects supply efforts to Israel, Turkey and it's own fleets in and around the Med and the Middle East. Sure, the USA can go the opposite way around but it's a slower, longer and costlier method.

The impact on Italian, French and UK shipping would also be huge.

I agree about the huge economical and political impact.

As well, I simply cannot fathom the UK allowing a full fledged conflict to erupt next to Gibraltar.

Not quite sure what Britain could do about it, unless your suggesting we nuke somewhere? Seriously, while Britain, if it choose to join either side would make a big difference short of such intervention, which would take time, it can't do a lot other than seek to protect Gibraltar and its population from stray fire.

So whilst the first shots have been fired in anger, at signs that the conflict was going to become large enough to close the straight interested nations would have put a huge amount of pressure on Morocco and Spain to 'chill' and find a diplomatic solution.

I agree but things are going very rapidly and I don't think either side are listening. The Moroccans are going to feel the aggrieved party in that the Spanish started shooting 1st and also, the year after 9-11 are not really going to be in a position to do anything that looks like a climb-down. With their bases under attack the Spanish aren't likely to listen to anything without a ceasefire and have their plan indigo.

Furthermore, whilst I don't think that the USA or UK would have chose sides in this conflict I can certainly see the possibility of them sending combat ships (perhaps even Italy?) to the Straight to make certain it stays open to commerce and that it does not become a combat zone.

Can it stay open in the middle of a modern war. Don't think both sides are using a lot of missiles and the bulk of the Moroccan fleet and air force seem to be down but its still rather a free fire zone. If nothing else interest rates on anything using the straits will be crippling even if nothing gets attacked. Also neutrality will not matter much with racial and religious factors coming into play. As such, if there are vital convoys they will go through, under heavy defensive support but I doubt if anyone is going to be willing to risk anything that isn't vital. Possibly if the US sent a major fleet into the straits with orders to blast anybody who fired on them you might not get some error or some idiot really ramping things up but I wouldn't like to rely on it.

With the threat of sanctions, impact on world markets and political pressure the firing would have ceased very shortly after it began. Regardless of the who fired first and regardless time it is in DC or London when this began.

It depends on how much things are being driven at pretty much mob levels. Also doesn't sound very much like either side are talking to each other at all. Without that the Spanish can't stop while their settlements are under attack and the Moroccans won't be willing while their being bombed and a ceasefire could enable the Spanish to reinforce their bases.

Steve
 
Dr S

Very intriguing about plan indigo. Especially the idea the Spanish leadership seem to think they can make economic gains from it. That bit about it paying for the war in 4-5 years. Not sure if Morocco has any mineral wealth which is the only real benefit so unless they are thinking of something that will get Algeria involved in such a way its a big earner for Spain? Otherwise very puzzled and curious about where this is going.

Also sounds like its very much a gamble. The bit about repainting armoured units suggests their going to attack somewhere in disguise. Presumably faking either an Algerian attack on Morocco or vice-versa. However that sounds like it would be very, very difficult to pull off. Also again difficult to see the expected economic benefits. You have me very puzzled and intrigued. Looking forward to future episodes.

Steve
 
Dr S

Also sounds like its very much a gamble. The bit about repainting armoured units suggests their going to attack somewhere in disguise. Presumably faking either an Algerian attack on Morocco or vice-versa. However that sounds like it would be very, very difficult to pull off.
Steve

I for one doubt anyone was going to buy a surprise Algerian attack with Leopard M2A6 tanks. ;)
 
Interesting scenario, very novel.
The thing is though with a few well placed bombs the land the war started over could easily be destroyed :D

Haven't properly read it yet so it could well be mentioned but.... What of all the Moroccans in Spain?
 
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