A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2002

[Rockingham]

The US would be in a very difficult position indeed. After activating the NATO treaty in response to terrorism post 9/11 (which other NATO powers didn't do in response to state sponsored terrorism directed against them), not coming to the aid of one of its allies which had suffered such an attack would probably destroy NATO, particularly with Spanish troops serving alongside American forces in Afghanistan at the time.

Except it's not really terorism, and like Dr SG said, if morocco can convince the world Spain attacked first, neutrality can be secured from NATO. Britain is least likely to support them...given Spanish hypocrisy in regards to Gibraltar.

I'd say the BCS for Morrocco is having to withdraw from Ceuta and Mellila but recieving the other Spanish exclaves.

 

[Hecatee]

About the military forces involved now :

All must remember that the best weapons in the Moroccan arsenal are some Mirage F-1 planes in need of repairs, without much missiles, which have to get inside an AEGIS bubble provided by the Alvaro de Bazan class frigates which are closer to an Arleigh Burke ship than a frigate. On the ground they mainly got M-60 and T-72 which will have to face Leopard II tanks. And in the air the Spanish F-18 will do nice holes in the Moroccan air force while Harrier will provide enough CAS support for any coastal operation.

Even if Algeria ( which is still officially at war with Marocco, even if under a truce ) did come to help the Spanish would probably be able to hold their own. And maybe the Europeans would make sure the date of introduction of service of the Typhoon and Tigre are advanced a bit should the Spanish face too many ennemies in the sky or on the ground

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

1- Ceuta and Melilla are not protected by the NATO treaty. Whatever happens there, Spain has to face it alone (at least in theory). As I posted in the July 15th events (and I didn't make it up, those were actual NATO declarations in OTL), NATO stated that the incident was not NATO business.

It didn't develop into a shooting war; just a way of cooling the situationm reminding those involved they could not guarantee assistance (publicly).

The issue re. NATO is largely academic, as it does not preclude any or all help being given by one sovereign nation to another.

2- The american and french attitude has always been rather pro-moroccan, mostly due to the moroccan support to french and american oil prospectors in Western Sahara, and historical reasons such as France being Morocco's former colonial master and America's traditional friendship with Morocco.

I rather think Franco-Spanish relations - as EU and NATO partners, and neighbours - are somewhat more important.

Same goes for the US, especially given the close relationship between their militaries (basing rights included).

If Morocco went nuts and did something like that, who's to stop the US/French/A.N. Other from interceding to increase their hold in Morocco post-conflict?

3- I left deliberately unclear who shot first. It is true that Morocco attacking two spanish cities is way over the top, but moroccans can always state that spanish planes attacked moroccan positions first.

Might play well in the Arab world, causing further difficulties, but amongst the US and Europeans? Not really.

In the public opinion field, Spain has all sympathies, but in the realpolitik field, americans will insist in keeping neutrality in the conflict, trusting that it can be easily and fastly solved. Moroccans also trust on their numerical superiority to overrun the spanish positions as fast as possible before the spaniards can set up a proper defense and force them into the negotiating table.

Depends on whether Spain has more to offer the US than Morocco. I really can't see Morocco being accorded primacy; although I agree that the US and EU nations could well remain a friendly neutral, for political reasons so as not to escalated a regional dispute, supplying the sinews of war for the Spanish: who would, in any case, be able to deploy most of their assets from land-bases in Spain/Balearics to ensure air superiority and, effectively, besiege the invaders.


In short, however, no one would tolerate a shooting war in the WestMed, especially less than a year after 9/11. If

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Your objections seem reasonable; and the moroccan attack on Ceuta and Melilla, in a second read, is too far fetched. I rewrote the events between 7 and 8 AM so that the escalation is more realistic and it is clear that the spaniards fired first, but the board won't let me edit the post, so here it is:

.50 AM: Spanish F-18 patroling the zone bomb the Moroccan batteries, evading before any enemy AA battery can lock on them. Unfortunately for a lot of people, the Moroccan commander is able to send a radio message informing that his position is under attack of Spanish warplanes.

7AM: The Spanish commander, Admiral Moreno Barberá, coordinating the entire operation aboard the ship Castilla in the Gulf of Cadiz receives intel reports about the magnitude of the Moroccan deployment around Ceuta. What seems to be several infantry brigades supported by helicopters and heavy artillery have been deployed around the city. Barberá is now in a difficult position. It looks like the situation in Perejil has gone out of control, with the fighting extending to the mainland. Instead of the quick, clean operation expected, the assault on the island has become a bloody mess with casualties ranging on tens. And now the Moroccan deployment seems to indicate that the Perejil operations is only a small part of their operative. Spanish doctrine in this event has always been to strike first in case preparations for a Moroccan offensive are evident to deny them any numbers and surprise advantage. With the available information, Admiral Barberá decides that only a preemptive air and naval strike on the Moroccan positions can prevent a bloodbath in Ceuta.

7.05 AM: After a brief conversation with Admiral Barberá, PM Aznar authorizes the raid. Shortly after, he will report to the King and present his resignation as President of the Spanish government.

7.15 AM: The frigates Navarra and Numancia open fire on the Moroccan positions around Perejil and Ceuta.

7.20 AM: The Moroccan command in Rabat receives news of the Spanish raid. It seems that the Spaniards have gone nuts and started bombing Moroccan territory. Contingency plans for such an event are activated.

In Perejil, the fighting stops briefly to see how the missiles raise from the frigates’ launchers towards the Moroccan positions.

In the Gulf of Cadiz, the Principe de Asturias goes into full alert. The planes aboard the carrier are readied for a combat exit.

The air bases of Alcantarilla, Morón, Los Llanos, Talavera, Armilla and San Javier, [all the airbases assigned to the Strait Air Command] receive orders to prepare for an eventual strike on Northern Morocco.

7.25 AM: A missile launched from the Numancia misses and hits the’ village of El Horra, killing several civilians.

7.30 AM: In Washington, President George Bush’ aide awakens him, reporting that what seems to be a shooting war has broken out in the Gibraltar Straits.

In Las Palmas, the Air Command of Canarias based at the Gando airbase is ordered to go into full alert.

In Ceuta and Melilla, the mayor-presidents of both cities [yes, that’s their official title] are informed by the military commanders of the plazas that, since the situation may degenerate into a full war, the cities must be placed under curfew. Military forces in the cities start to occupy defensive positions.

The Moroccan Royal Air Force is ordered to take off to engage the Spanish agressors. Moroccan airbases at Rabat, Meknes and Kenitra start preparations for the raid on the Spanish fleet.

7. 40 AM: The Ceutans are waken up by what seems to be very nearby explosions. In a few minutes, telephone lines at police, firemen and radio stations are collapsed. The explosions actually come from Moroccan batteries bombed by the Spanish frigates.

In Washington, the Moroccan ambassador contacts with the US secretary of state and informs him that Spanish air and naval forces are attacking Moroccan soil.

10 miles across the Strait, the sound of the explosions is clearly heard at the city of Tarifa. In a few minutes, radio stations are flooded with calls. Less than 15 minutes later, the main media in Spain and Morocco stop their regular broadcasts to inform that Spanish and Moroccan forces are fighting above the strait and that Ceuta may be under attack. These reports are greatly exaggerated (for now, the fighting is reduced to Perejil) but will turn out accurate in a few hours.

7 45. AM: the last defenders of perejil, outnumbered and outgunned, surrender to the Spanish special forces. In Perejil lay 15 moroccan marines and 9 spanish commandos, next to several wounded.

In Washington, Spanish ambassador Westendorp contacts with the US secretary of state confirming that Spanish forces have been forced to conduct a preemptive strike on Moroccan positions to prevent an attack on Ceuta.

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

Stiill Seems a Lil' Abrupt, Why is The Spanish Fleet Bombarding The Moroccan Coast ...

Also, There's a 5 Hour Tiime Difference Between The Straits and Washington, So, Bush Having to Be Woken Up Needs to Be Rethought ...

Unless, of Course, you Wiish to Imply he was Sleepin' Past Noon, In Whiich Case, Carry On!

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Also, There's a 5 Hour Tiime Difference Between The Straits and Washington, So, Bush Having to Be Woken Up Needs to Be Rethought ...

The spaniards are bombing the moroccan positions around Ceuta as a preemptive strike since they think that a moroccan strike is imminent.

Also, 7.40 AM in the Straits = 6 40 AM in Morocco and the Canary Islands = 140 AM in Washington.

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

The spaniards are bombing the moroccan positions around Ceuta as a preemptive strike since they think that a moroccan strike is imminent.

Also, 7.40 AM in the Straits = 6 40 AM in Morocco and the Canary Islands = 140 AM in Washington.

Hmmm ...

I Stand, Corrected ...

CARRY On!

 

[MerryPrankster]

CalBear,

I think the US might not intervene immediately in this scenario b/c Morocco, even if it is an Islamic state, is not Islamist. The King is a secular ruler and a US ally to boot. Furthermore, if there's ambiguity as to who started shooting, Congress might not authorize Bush to go to war.

(or at the very least, it could turn into a dragged-out political debate that delays US intervention)

However, if there's even a whiff of bin Ladenism, I could imagine the US getting involved real fast. This is, after all, less than a year after 9/11.

Here's a thought:

Morocco is losing the war and in response, Islamism begins growing in the country. The King is overthrown or forced into subservience to Islamist elements in the country, who try to make the war against Spain into a jihad.

THEN the US drops the hammer. The Algerians might intervene too, since an Islamist Morocco could aid the Salafist goombahs.

You like?

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

CalBear,

I think the US might not intervene immediately in this scenario b/c Morocco, even if it is an Islamic state, is not Islamist. The King is a secular ruler and a US ally to boot. Furthermore, if there's ambiguity as to who started shooting, Congress might not authorize Bush to go to war.

I can't say I agree. With this coming so soon in the wake of 9/11, there's going to be public support in the United States to support its NATO ally. As friendly as Morocco is towards the United States, Spain is even friendlier. At best, you could hope that the United States is too distracted in Afghanistan to do anything other than offer support to Spain, but I doubt this would happen. People are going to look at an Islamic state attacking a NATO member, and they're going to see 9/11 all over again, regardless of the real facts on the ground. It shouldn't be like that, but that's how I see it breaking down.

 

[Valdemar II]

Morocco
Population
33,757,175
GDP
$152.5 billion

Spain
Population
41,061,274
GDP
$1.261 trillion

 

[Locke]

Morocco
Population
33,757,175
GDP
$152.5 billion

Spain
Population
41,061,274
GDP
$1.261 trillion

'Nuff said.

One outcome:

Viva España!

 

[MerryPrankster]

Never said Spain would lose, unless the Spanish military does something suicidally stupid or the Spanish public loses heart early on.

 

[Condottiero]

Nekromans

Duh. Even presuming a Moroccan victory that results in it taking all the Spanish possessions that would give it no claim on Gibraltar, let alone any capacity to take it. Even presuming such a victory you can expect heavy Moroccan losses, especially in equipment. For it then to pick a fight with Britain, especially since the later could definitely call on allied support.

I can't see the Spanish giving up their imperial claim on Gibraltar, any more than southern Ireland on Ulster. Just the possibility that as in the latter case it represents a desire that the bulk of the population ultimately realise is pointless and counter productive. In one way a Moroccan victory would actually boost the Spanish position. They would no longer be open to charges of hypocrisy in terms of seeking to simultaneously demand the seizure of Gibraltar while holding their own outposts in a similar position.

Steve

Imperial claim on Gibraltar!!!! This is the funniest joke I've ever read in these boards!!!

I read recently on Irish magazine "Business & Finance" something on Gibraltar even more funny. Someone in Gibraltar said they had been an spanish colony before being a british one. It would have been incredible that a nation had created colonies in her own territory.

 

[Karlos]

Very interesting and well thought timeline.
Some things: I don't think NATO would ever allow that. If only because Cetuta and Melilla are actually the only NATO bases in the african coast of the Med. Even worst, if those go down the moorocans would follow with claims to the Canary Islands (as they do now) which are even more important NATO bases from a strategicall point of view.
OTOH, there might be some days of spanish-morrocan warfare. Maybe Aznar would ask the USA not to interfere, as long as he sees that spanish forces can win on their own. Winning such a war would be a question of pride and would earn him a lot of votes in the future, kind of what the Falklands did for Thatcher.
I can see serious incidents in Spain with the hundreds of thousands of morocan immigrants. There were some even without a war. Maybe roundups and camps, even.
The spanish would win. For centuries, our main strategic plans have been directed towards only one enemy, Morocco. The spanish army is and was in 2002 an army at NATO level.

 

[Condottiero]

Karlos,
I fully agree with you except for one thing: Ceuta and Melilla are not NATO bases, in fact they are not covered by the treaty.


****

One more thing, France could give a key help to Morocco very easily. The only military spanish satelites are in fact franco-spanish. Some "unexpected technical failures" could hinder the spanish capabilities, not to make them to be defeated but enough to make it an expensive victory.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Never said Spain would lose, unless the Spanish military does something suicidally stupid or the Spanish public loses heart early on.

Which is what the moroccan strategy is relying upon; especially when it becomes clear that it was the spaniards who fired first. Spain has air & naval superiority; but if the moroccans overrun Ceuta & Melilla thanks to their numerical advantage, and the western public is convinced that Spain started the aggression, they may be in an advantage position before the US & NATO can react.

 

[Condottiero]

Which is what the moroccan strategy is relying upon; especially when it becomes clear that it was the spaniards who fired first. Spain has air & naval superiority; but if the moroccans overrun Ceuta & Melilla thanks to their numerical advantage, and the western public is convinced that Spain started the aggression, they may be in an advantage position before the US & NATO can react.

That could be the situation in Melilla and in the rest of small "plazas de soberanía", except in Ceuta that could be defended very easily.

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

One more thing, France could give a key help to Morocco very easily. The only military spanish satelites are in fact franco-spanish. Some "unexpected technical failures" could hinder the spanish capabilities, not to make them to be defeated but enough to make it an expensive victory.

Can you imagine the wider repercussions for France if they did that?

That would also be academic, given the ease with which satellite information could be gleaned from other nations (i.e. the US).

To be honest, with the kind of offensive capabilities the Moroccans have, in the situation described, going in without satellite information would not be a grave problem as there are other, albeit far more limited, means to surveille large areas: just mean more special operations and perhaps marginally higher aircraft losses from ground defences.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I hope I'll only have to put the first day in such detail; after 3 posts it is still 9AM :
A WAR IN THE STRAIT, DAY 1 JULY 17TH 2002 [CONTINUATION]

8AM: At the military plazas of Vélez de la Gomera, Alhucemas, and the Chafarinas islands, the Spanish garrisons take defensive positions.

In the combat zone of Ceuta, Spanish planes and frigates stop their bombardment after running out of air to land missiles. They have managed to inflict a great damage into the Moroccan artillery and troop concentrations, but the strike has been too limited to destroy their offensive capability.

In the Gulf of Cadiz, the Alvaro de Bazan activates its AEGIS systems, while the first planes take off from the Principe de Asturias.

All over Europe, broadcasting media open their news services with breaking news about heavy fighting over the straits; the only images available now being blurry images of warplanes flying over Ceuta.

A first wave of Moroccan planes take off the airbases at Rabat, Kenitra and Meknes.

In the Canary Islands, every available plane at Gando is ordered to take off and proceed to positions east of Lanzarote to prevent any Moroccan raid on the islands

In Rabat, King Mohamed, after being informed of the situation by his Chiefs of Staff, authorizes an attack on the Spanish plazas in addition to the attack on the fleet.

In Tangiers, Casablanca and Al-Hoceima, the small Moroccan fleet is ordered to go into combat gearing. Although the Moroccan commanders know that they can’t do much against the much bigger Spanish fleet; the Mediterranean fleet based at Al-hoceima an be useful in an attack on the plazas.

In Madrid, King Juan Carlos accepts Aznar’s resignation as President and, less than 24 hours after the Congress has gone on vacation, starts the task to make up an emergency government.

All over Spain, the country wakes up in what was supposed to be an uneventful summer morning, only to find out that Spain is at war, although not officially yet.

815 AM: A Moroccan missile battery unnoticed by the Spanish reconnaissance fires on the Spanish frigates. All missiles are shot down.

The Moroccan military is fully mobilized by now. Knowing that Melilla is almost undefendable, most efforts are devoted to an assault on Ceuta, despite the havoc the Spanish strike has created on the existing Moroccan deployment.

First news of the combats arrive on the Sahrawi refugee camps in Southern Algeria.

830 AM: The Battle of the Strait starts as Moroccan Mirages fire antiship missiles on the Numancia and Navarra. Luckily for the Moroccan air force, the Spanish F-18 have withdrawn to their airbases to refuel and load antiground missiles, while the planes from the Principe de Asturias are still underway.

Spanish forces in Perejil are ordered to take defensive positions since their relief is now impossible.

8.35 AM: a Moroccan missile hits the Numancia, killing 25 crewmen and effectively leaving the frigate out of combat. The Numancia must abandon the combat zone.

8.40 AM: Spanish and Moroccan planes engage over the strait. Despite the Moroccan superiority, the 12 Spanish Harriers manage to destroy several Mirages before they are even able to lock on them. The support from the Alvaro de Bazan proves invaluable for the Harriers.

In Tarifa, the exit roads from the city are already crowded by tourists fleeing the city under fear of an attack; while a pillar of smoke coming from the Numancia is clearly visible on the horizon.

9AM: The air battle over the strait is over after the remaining Moroccan planes flee the combat zone. The Spanish Harriers do not pursue them fearing Moroccan AA batteries.

The first news of the combats arrive to the Spanish troops in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan. Spanish NATO soldiers deployed in Aviano (Italy) and the Indian ocean will soon also learn about the fighting.

King Juan Carlos contacts the Permanent Commission of the Congress and outlines his plan for a new emergency government, using his royal prerogative for the first time in 25 years.

In Cairo, the Arab League starts an emergency meeting.

In Brussels, NATO does the same.
In Morón, San Javier, Armilla and Alcantarilla (see map) , fighters prepare for an attack on AA defenses and radar all over Northern Morocco.

First images of the aerial combats over the straits and civilian victims of the first strike make it to the Moroccan media.

[to be continued…]

 

[Tocomocho]

15PM: The Debate on the Nation State ends with the tacit support of every political group, except Catalonian radical nationalists, to the governments’ stance on the Moroccan crisis.

I think that all palamentary groups condemned the occupation of Perejil, including ERC. That's the funny thing of Spaniards, they love to throw shit above each other but hate when a foreigner does that.

7.05 AM: After a brief conversation with Admiral Barberá, PM Aznar authorizes the raid. Shortly after, he will report to the King and present his resignation as President of the Spanish government.

Do you really think he would abandone the government when he has the opportunity to achieve his dream of "entering the History books"? Come on, this is the man that had no problem to insult the Spanish people and the rest of parliamentary groups when almost the whole country was demonstrating against him in 2003/04. I think that in this situation he would take Cid's clothes and present himself as the saviour of Spain against the nasty moor and the treacherous anti-Spanish alliance of peripheral nationalists and socialists (TM). Remember the recent visits of Zapatero and González to Morocco? I expect them to gain several minutes in Urdaci's TVE news. Another point to take in consideration is that the relation of Aznar with the King in his second term wasn't that good, so he could feel some sort of humiliated presenting his demission if it was necessary (and I'm pretty sure it isn't here).

Never said Spain would lose, unless the Spanish military does something suicidally stupid or the Spanish public loses heart early on.

Well, reagarding the last thing: From the Spanish point of view it's Morocco who attacked Spain first. Now, bear in mind that to many Spaniards (sad but true) Morocco is "the old enemy" and the place where "illegal invaders", thieves and drug smugglers came from. This situation isn't like Spain's involvement in the Irak War at all, it's more like if Mexican troops landed at the Californian Channel Islands and then opened fire over Sandiego. You can imagine what the average American Joe would think about the event.