A Plethora of Princes - (Thread 5) : The Rushing of the Wind

[Grey Wolf]

1854

News reaches London of the assassination of Abbas, ruler of Egypt, allegedly done to death by two of his slaves after harshly treating another over an incident about a horse (Abbas being a great breeder of horses).

Lord John Russell's government has its own problems in London. The weakness of the East India Company has been clear for some years, and the success in acquiring Sindh during the Sino-Sikh War (1842-1845) paradoxically served to illustrate the fact. It was only possible due to the Sikh state's focus being on the war in the East and its need to secure its Southern borders. It was a consolation prize perhaps, for Britain. The Sikh's strategic victory has strengthened them far more, and the conquest of Baltistan, added to rumoured Russian ties, has simply served to underline how weak certain aspects of British rule in India actually are. Russell's government is committed to doing something about it, but has run into opposition from entrenched interests. As these include mercantile and conservative elements of his own government, Russell's administration is on the verge of collapse.

As part of the same package of reform, the Hudson Bay Company will be dissolved and Ruperts Land brought under direct British rule. This is as much in response to British fears of US intentions as it is to any weakness in the HBC itself. With Upper and Lower Canada effectively neutral buffer states between Britain and the USA, and with the entirety of the Oregon Territory signed away, Ruperts Land appears vulnerable should a future US administration look Northwards once again. The administrations in Upper and Lower Canada are so close to US interests that, despite their position as British colonies, they are often referred to as US protectorates. Russell perceives his move as being to prevent the same thing happening to Ruperts Land in the future.

US-British relations remain tense. Mexican recognition of Texan independence has been secured by British and French pressure, but in its occurrence, US influence over Texas has been drastically undermined. The annexation party has been weakened by this political victory, and with British and French economic investment pouring into the Republic, the independence party is solidifying its appeal, especially among the merchant classes.

The Yucatan remains a US protectorate, and in response Britain has increased its presence and investment in its protectorates of British Honduras and Miskitia (the Eastern Nicaraguan coast). Diplomatic attempts to defuse the tensions have so far fallen on deaf ears. Russell's government has no interest in signing anything other than an advantageous treaty. His predecessor's abandonment of Oregon has set a precedent that Britain has no wish to see continue.

As Russell's government collapses, and the Radicals are returned in the ensuing general election, Russia taking advantage of the instability in Egypt after Abbas' death moves to press the Orthodox position in the so-called Monks Dispute in Jerusalem which has been bubbling under the surface for several years.

As, William Lovett takes office as Prime Minister he is thrust into the twin crises of the reforms of the EIC and HBC on the one hand, and a dangerous Franco-Russian spat developing in the Eastern Mediterranean on the other.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 2

Perhaps taking advantage of the change in government in London and the new administration's twin crises, a US free-booting expedition arrives in Nicaragua, first of all seizing Greytown in Miskitia, then advancing inland to install their leader as President of the country. .

This presents a serious problem for Lovett's government in London. Already faced with two crises in foreign affairs, the Radicals whose main election platform is one of domestic reform, do not want to engage in a potentially dangerous war in Central America. Instead, they dispatch an ambassador to President William Walker and negotiate for the rights of the Miskito Indians within Nicaragua, as opposed to a British protectorate. Walker is in favour and grants localised autonomy. The removal of Britain as a potential enemy allows him to focus on his plan of uniting the five lower Central American republics into one state.

Lovett's government pushes ahead with reforms to Ruperts Land and abolition of the East India Company. Over entrenched opposition, they are eventually made law and pass the British Senate.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I realise that William Walker would have had a very different life than in OTL, but I don't see any harm in using him. The strategic imperatives make such an expedition quite likely, and there is no logical candidate to lead it. It might as well be Walker as anyone else. His background in this ATL may include army service when war over Oregon looked possible, and some attempted fillibustering in Central Canada. Maybe in light of that failure he turned his attentions Southwards, perhaps served in US forces stationed in the Yucatan and conceived of his plan that way. Either way, he will do for this adventure. We might as well have a named character in place rather than a nameless cypher

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

A Map ?

Having some difficulty sourcing accurate maps on the internet, even for something like how large Yucatan was in the 1840s OTL

This seems to be the most accurate, because it shows the province before it lost land to the neighbouring provinces to the Wesr, but with British Honduras (here shown as Balize, presumably an early forerunner of the modern Belize)

Grey Wolf

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[Grey Wolf]

This map, of Central America from OTL 1860 shows roughly how Yucatan and British Honduras fit in. What it doesn't show, of course, if the British protectorate of Miskitia, which is proving very difficult to get a map of. I can find modern maps of the Miskito Coast but not 1840s-1850s maps showing it as separate, or even delineated.

Grey Wolf

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[Grey Wolf]

I see the Radicals' foreign policy as essentially reactive. They do not want foreign entanglements, and at the same time they will work to promote their domestic ideals in the existing colonies. Their main agenda is domestic, but they cannot fully ignore national security and the fact that imperial security depends on trade routes etc. In a sense the British Empire as a whole is a domestic issue, and there is at least a significant faction among the Radicals who campaign for the rights of subject peoples etc, colonials etc as well as the domestic electorate. It is to these that Lovett's government was looking when his agreement with Walker was based on respecting rights and autonomy for the Miskito Indians.

The effect, though, is generally to render British imperial policy one of retrenchment and he development of existing holdings. Radical governments do not wish to expand the empire, but to develop it. To their mind the subjugation of the EIC and to a lesser extent the HBC has had the added bonus of curbing their independence, and in the case of the EIC this means their expansionist tendencies.

This is not to say, however, that the Radicals won't find themselves dragged into foreign entanglements, though they will seek to mediate and pursue a peacable solution as far as possible

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Notes ahead

What I see happening is along the lines of :-

1. The situation in the Eastern Mediterranean does something, who knows what yet, but this is the main British focus under Lovett

2. In Central America, Walker succeeds in conquering the five republics, in no little way thanks to covert help from Yucatan advisors who act as a transit for US aid etc without getting the USA fully into the conflict.

3. Walker is assassinated, his successor fights a civil war to hold the UPCA together, is successful but not before the British have reappeared on the scene

Details will follow. Of course, what's happening in the Eastern Mediterranean will dominate the strategic thinking of the European powers.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The death of Abbas plus Russian machinations in Jerusalem could well lead to instability throughout Egypt and another revolt in Syria. They say that history repeats itself and for example in OTL the Poles revolted in both the 1830s and the 1860s and both times were crushed. So, its not really repetitive to have Syria rise up. This time there is no Ibrahim to lead the Egyptian armies to glory, nor is there a Mohammed Ali securely on the throne. Thus, whilst Said can order the fleet to Lebanon and dispatch an army overland, the appearance may be the same but the actuality is rather different...

The nations with naval powers which count in this period will be France, Egypt, Russia, the Ottoman Empire and Austria. Lovett will dispatch a British squadron there but it will be under orders not to intervene and not to take sides. Probably the British minister at Athens will be the guy in charge, deputised from London and he is going to be a newly-appointed Radical nominee.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

King Georges of the 1850s

Notes on kings

King George V of Hannover
is the son of King Adolphus I
who died in 1850
and is the second Duke of Cambridge
he was born in 1819
and in OTL died in 1904

So, there's one King George V in London and a different King George V in Hannover

I'm trying to figure out who is King of Greece. Charles of Mecklenburg whom I sent there in c1830 died in OTL in 1837 - I can't find out why, he was only 52. I also can't find out if he married or had any children. If he had not done so in OTL, its quite possible that upon becoming king he would do so - that's the course in OTL followed by Leopold I in Belgium. If he does die as in OTL and has had a son, a Regent will need to be found for the lad. Alternatively, if there is no child for the throne, another Mecklenburger may be found - Charles' nephew, Duke George (they're all titled Duke) born in 1824 could seem a good bet.

So, there could be a King George in Greece too

As an additional aside, the King of the Miskito Indians in this period is George Augustus Frederic II (1842-1865)... So, yet another King George !

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Added to the below, if Charles of Mecklenburg, King of Greece is unmarried in OTL, then he will marry once he is on the throne of Greece, and have a child. If Charles dies young, his son will become king, and a Regent will come from somewhere or other. But interestingly, the son is likely to be called....George !

So whatever happens, Charles will be succeeded by George. I would like to know of course if we're talking a child born in the 1830s, or an adult born in the 1820s who is laterally related. The succession of either would bring its own problems, but these are likely to remain internal to Greece, and its likely that they wouold not be allowed to spill out into the greater political sphere.

If conflict comes it will be different, but by then both possible Georges will be adults, and internal situations in Greece wwill be secondary to whatever Greece does on the foreign affairs scene

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Outline Timeline

Outline Timeline

Assassination of Abbas

Russian machinations over the Holy Places in Jerusalem

Syrian Revolt

Readying of an army and the fleet by Said in Egypt

Ottoman Sultan Abdulmecid acts in support of the rebels, Syria still being considered legally a part of the Ottoman Empire

With Said's army underway, Russia reacts to the 'threat' under the Treaty of Unkiar Skelessi and sends an army through Eastern Anatolia with Ottoman 'permission' to aid the Syrians against the Egyptians

The Russian Black Sea fleet enters the Sea of Marmara and unites with the Ottoman navy which is being hurriedly readied for sea after years of general neglect

France dispatches a squadron to the Aegean.

The Egyptian fleet operates off the Levant securing communications with the army on its advance to Lebanon

Grey Wolf

 

[Archangel Michael]

Refer to the Hanoverian George V as Georg V and the British George V as George V.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Outline Timeline - Questions ?

What is Austria doing ? One can posit an ageing Metternich (he's in his early 80s) still dominating foreign affairs

What is happening in Greece ? Will they see the impending war as a chance to stir up trouble/expand ?

What will France do about Greece ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

What is Austria doing ? One can posit an ageing Metternich (he's in his early 80s) still dominating foreign affairs

What is happening in Greece ? Will they see the impending war as a chance to stir up trouble/expand ?

What will France do about Greece ?

Grey Wolf

In this period, Greece is just too piss poor to stir up anything - the 19th c Balkans are notable for how quiet the Greeks were. Any attack would be swatted with ease, without massive outside help.

In any case, the Balkans are likely to see a very different development in your TL as Russian predominance at the Porte will mean Balkan nationalists are on their own, meaning, without hope.

 

[Hierophant]

Is there a chance Grey, that George of Greece was sterile or just too sickly to have a good chance of having kids? I mean if he dies at 50, theres a chance he was just another inbred royal with a weak body and immune system, which would contribute to very low sperm count and possiblity to having kids.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Is there a chance Grey, that George of Greece was sterile or just too sickly to have a good chance of having kids? I mean if he dies at 50, theres a chance he was just another inbred royal with a weak body and immune system, which would contribute to very low sperm count and possiblity to having kids.

You mean Charles (Karl Frederick). There is a chance, but it would seem a bit odd for Ernest Augustus to have tried to push the candidacy of someone who would not be seen as up to it.

Even so, if he was, I'll keep it vague. Let's say his successor is either a son born in the early 1830s who is now of age, or his nephew born in the 1820s who is still a relatively young man. Either way, after the death of Charles of Greece comes the reign of King George I of Greece, and he is an adult in 1854

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

In this period, Greece is just too piss poor to stir up anything - the 19th c Balkans are notable for how quiet the Greeks were. Any attack would be swatted with ease, without massive outside help.

In any case, the Balkans are likely to see a very different development in your TL as Russian predominance at the Porte will mean Balkan nationalists are on their own, meaning, without hope.

I don't necessarily agree with your first point. Seeing the Ottomans AND the Russians focussing on Syria, it might be seen as a good time to try to do something about the unsatisfactory Northern border in Greece. Its only a year or so since two disputed villages on the border were awarded to the Ottomans, and this will remain in the memory.

If you look at the OTL 1853 uprisings in Epirus and Thessaly, neither was the result of outside interference. They were a mixture of spontaneity and Greek support (King Otto provided men and money). In the ATL the potential is certainly there for something similar to occur.

In addition, the presence of a French line of battle squadron in the Aegean will have a galvanising effect.

Furthermore, if France is determined to push the issue with Russia, then the dangers of war would certainly be ameliorated somewhat by opening a second flank against the Ottomans.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

There is rather scarily a lot of the world around !!!

I've been trying to get my head around Russia in this period (as well as look up Tanu Uriankhi on a completely unrelated and out-of-period question for another thread, but using the same book)

Anyway, I've come to a couple of conclusions :-

1. The Crimean War severely affected China's ability to deal with Russia. This was on 2 levels
- the first, that Russian forces *(such as they were) had used the Amur temporarily in the war to avoid Anglo-French forces, and thus established precedent, agreed to as a temporary measure by China
- the second, seriously amusingly, that the Chinese emperor's report on the war was that Russia had won the war, bombarded Britain, and was in the ascendant. This struck the fear of God into the Chinese Emperor, especially as he viewed Russian incursions as simultaneously the signs of dynastic collapse, always in his mind previewed by barbarian invasions from the North

China thus had granted Russia permission to establish a foothold on the Amur, and had come to the conclusion that in no circumstances should they fight the Russians

2. The absence of a strong British presence in India has had serious repurcussions, especially in the lack of the First Afghan War and the First Sikh War. This has not only affected the Sikhs, as described elsewhere, but will have had significant repurcussions for Russia
- Russia is not being countered in N Persia by Britain
- Nor in Afghanistan
- The Sikh state has cordial relations with Russia

Throw in a couple more things :-

In OTL 1853 Russian Foreign Minister Nesselrode gave assurances to China that Russia respected the previously agreed border. Without the Crimean War overflowing into the Far East, this is far more likely to be the continuing Russian position

The Eastern Mediterranean war, the Syrian War or whatever it develops into, will drag Russian attention into that theatre.

The Opening of Japan by Perry seems less likely to occur in 1854 as the USA does not own California or the land between the USA and it, but Oregon up to 54' 40". I don't see this as providing the same sort of impetus, and I see the war raging across Central America as delaying it by even more.

China has not seen the First Opium War, but instead the Sino-Sikh War in the early 1840s followed by Anglo-French intervention which may produce an analogue to the war aforementioned. China IS thus in a similar situation to OTL as regards internal conditions and revolts. I am thinking that the Sikh 'victory' will especially become important as the decade wares on as the Taiping rebellion (one could provide an analogue but the thing itself provides definite interest) and the Musli rebellions in the West open the door to Kashgaria, and even the rest of Tibet

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I have unfortunately lost the URL for the following useful map, but have a look

Grey Wolf

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[Grey Wolf]

If we effectively zoom in on Baluchistan

The political connection of the British with Kalat commences from the outbreak of the first Afghan War in 1839, when this area was traversed by a British army from Sind and afterwards occupied. In the British attack on Kalat in 1840, Mir Mehrab Khan, the ruler was killed. His son, Mir Nasir Khan II was later raised to the masnad by the tribesmen and regained possession of Kalat. In 1842, consequent upon the British withdrawal from Afghanistan the occupied districts were returned to the Khan of Kalat. The British negotiated with the Kalat State in 1854 and according to the terms of the treaty British political agents were deputed to Kalat during the next twenty years. In 1874 Sir Robert Sandeman was sent to Balochistan whose policy was one of conciliatory intervention, tempered with lucrative employment and light taxation. Shortly afterwards he was able to conclude with Khan Khudadad Khan of Kalat the treaty of 1876, which brought Kalat under the British sovereignty and provided stronger political control.

This is OTL, in the ATL of course neither the First Afghan War nor a British invasion from Sind occurred

Grey Wolf

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