The move that secured the Macedonian victory at Gaugamela - a massive charge straight into the Persian center, where Darius III was - was an immensely risky gamble for Alexander. Case in point, his manouver created a gap in his army's line, one which was exploited by a detachment of Persian and Indian cavalry. Thankfully for the Macedonian king, not only did Darius flee, but the enemy horsemen decided to loot his camp instead of turning around and and attacking his or Parmenion's contingents (the latter of which was in serious danger of collapsing) in the rear.
Suppose that Darius doesn't lose his nerve and decides it'd be better to die fighting instead of retreating a second time (or that he'd probably get murdered if he survived, whichever), while the cavalry that breached the Macedonian line attacks and routs Parmenion's troops. With the invaders' left flank neutralized, the entirety of the Persian right wing attacks the Macedonian center in the rear, forcing Alexander to flee or quite possibly killing him, given he was always in the thick of the fighting.
By the end of the day the battlefield is under Persian control, while the Macedonian army is either annihilated (certainly a possibility, given how far they were from home and how badly they were outnumbered), or retreating to its homeland. What happens next? Syria and Egypt are bound to be reconquered by the Achaemenids (the latter with some difficulty, perhaps, given how rebellious it was), but what about Anatolia, especially the western part of it? Could Alexander, assuming he survives, assemble a new army by the time Darius gets there? My guess is not, given how the Greek cities are almost certain to rebel once news about Gaugamela spread far enough. They revolted after Alexander died IOTL after all, and put up quite a fight.
Assuming the Achaemenids get their act together in the 320s BC, could they launch a retaliatory invasion of Macedonia and turn it into either a vassal or a satrapy, like how it was during the reigns of Darius I and Xerxes?
Suppose that Darius doesn't lose his nerve and decides it'd be better to die fighting instead of retreating a second time (or that he'd probably get murdered if he survived, whichever), while the cavalry that breached the Macedonian line attacks and routs Parmenion's troops. With the invaders' left flank neutralized, the entirety of the Persian right wing attacks the Macedonian center in the rear, forcing Alexander to flee or quite possibly killing him, given he was always in the thick of the fighting.
By the end of the day the battlefield is under Persian control, while the Macedonian army is either annihilated (certainly a possibility, given how far they were from home and how badly they were outnumbered), or retreating to its homeland. What happens next? Syria and Egypt are bound to be reconquered by the Achaemenids (the latter with some difficulty, perhaps, given how rebellious it was), but what about Anatolia, especially the western part of it? Could Alexander, assuming he survives, assemble a new army by the time Darius gets there? My guess is not, given how the Greek cities are almost certain to rebel once news about Gaugamela spread far enough. They revolted after Alexander died IOTL after all, and put up quite a fight.
Assuming the Achaemenids get their act together in the 320s BC, could they launch a retaliatory invasion of Macedonia and turn it into either a vassal or a satrapy, like how it was during the reigns of Darius I and Xerxes?