A Different Roll of the Dice

Hi!

I like the thread and I consider it plausible enough. I also find very interested idea of a minor change and the rifts... The only problem I can find is, once the Alternative battle of Minorca happens, the rifts and alterations becomes greater and greater!

Just imagine: some people die ITTL and lives IOTL and otherwise... Those people had their own lives who will alter more and more the history.

Anyway, please going on!


PS: I think it's spelled Dauphin and not Dauphine....
 
The way the ripples are treated is simply awesome. I don't think I ever saw the butterfly effect described this well. And to top it off, the French might manage the Seven, er, Nine Year's War slightly better than OTL (not too hard, I know :D). Please keep it up!

Right now, I think we're all mass-guessing that the presence of Piotr in Azov will mean that a certain Elizaveta Petrovna lives slightly past 1762? I hope that you have in mind a scheme as brilliant as the one for killing Louis XV.
 
Chapter 3: 1757 part 2 (with Summary)
Invasion of Hanover

These next few months would be an important time on the continent as the battles of what we once called the Seven Years War, raged. Choisel acted quickly, but only had so much time to give noticed of the requested military reforms before actions took place, such things would take far longer than a month to bear fruit.

On July 27th, Louis d'Estrées leads a force of French against the British aligned Hanover and meets the Anglo-Hanoverian army led by the Duke of Cumberland near Hastenbeck.

Battle of Hastenbeck

62,000 French troops would fight against 35,000 British and Hanover soldiers. The French attacked on multiple fronts and after an initial stalemate, the Hanover guns were overrun. Reserve Hanover infantry attempted to repulse the French advance, but failed and the Duke of Cumberland began to retreat. Louis d’Estrees, aware of his victory, pursued and managed to cut off a portion of the Hanoverian army forcing it to surrender.

Battle Results:
French Forces: 1300 killed or wounded.
Anglo-Hanover Forces: 1200 killed or wounded, 2000 captured.
Decisive French Victory

As a result of this defeat, the Duke of Cumberland was forced to sign the Convention of Klosterzeven, which stipulated Hanover’s full occupation by the French and the Electorate’s removal from the war. The Duke of Cumberland was disgraced upon his return to England over the signing, and it was the end of his military career.

A Change in Parliament

The British were facing numerous setbacks during the war so far; they suffered the loss of Minorca, numerous defeats in North America, and the invasion of Hanover. If not for word of the recapture of St. Kitts and Nevis, an even worse pall would have beset the members of parliament. In the wake of this though; William Pitt, who recently attained the position of Leader of the House of Commons on June 27th, formed a coalition with former adversary, the Prime Minister of Britain, Thomas Pelham-Holles, 1st Duke ofNewcastle. Together they devised a strategy of navel descents upon the French coasts and other possessions which would begin with an attack on Rochefort and an expedition against Louisberg in French controlled Nova Scotia.

Battle of Gross-Jägersdorf

On August 30, a Russian army of over 100,000 led by Stepan Fedorovich Apraksin had invaded East Prussia. Though by the time they faced off against the Prussians his army had been reduced to just over 75,000 from the outbreak of a smallpox epidemic. Field-Marshal Hans von Lehwaldt of the Prussian army took 25,500 men to face off against this threat near Gross-Jägersdorf in one of the bloodiest battles of the war.

The cautious Apraksin was caught by surprise during his attempts to cross the Pregal river, and came close to losing his life on the banks before generals Vasily Lopukhin and Pyotr Rumyantsev responded in time to push the Prussians back in fierce fighting through dense thickets.

While the Prussians made an orderly retreat, the Russians executed a fierce counter attack, pushing them back even further. The Cossock cavalry, in a bold move, cut off one avenue of escape; forcing the Prussians to retreat directly through heavy artillery fire. Miscommunication and over-eager charges however saw several Russian troops pursue the fleeing Prussians into their own Artillery fire. This friendly fire barrage forced an end to the pursuit, which allowed the surviving East Prussian army to escape from the battlefield.

Battle Results:
Russian Forces: 7500 dead and wounded.
Prussian Forces: 5500 dead and wounded, 28 cannon captured.
Decisive Russian victory

After the battle, the Russians had a wide open path to overrun all of East Prussia, and were soon on the march to do so as they headed for Konigsburg to secure its capture.

If you recall, I mentioned that the ripples thought time originating from Azov would have a future impact of importance. Well, it was these ripples, from the arrival of our agent of Change Pieter to his home, which had a dramatic impact on the aftermath of this battle. A bump here and there as merchants who interacted with our agent took slightly different steps one or two seconds off from normal at first, then grew larger, and the small changes aggregated into bigger changes, until they changes in the time stream swept over the Russian Palace. It was nothing noticeable, just little things. Little things like a few bacterium or viruses being present or not present in the vicinity of Empress Elizabeth at a critical moment. In this case, they did not cross her path, and thus she did not encounter a severe relapse to her health. Because she did not take a turn for the worse, no reports of her illness were sent west, and thus the commander of the Russian armies during the war, Stepan Fedorovich Apraksin, had one less argument in favor of his retreat from East Prussian rather than remaining to conquer the province. Thusly, when he made his decision to stay or return home, he chose to stay and continue the campaign.

Battle of Gorlitz

On September 6th, near the town of Gorlitz, a 26,000 strong Austrian army came upon a Prussian army of 13,000 camped outside the town. In a swift surprise attack the Prussian army and garrison surrendered to the superior Austrian forces.

Battle Results:
Prussian Forces: 1300 dead or wounded, remainder captured.
Austrian Forces: 1500 dead or wounded.
Decisive Austrian Victory (equivalent to OTL Battle of Moys)

Siege of Konigsburg

On September 7th, after having won at Gross-Jägersdorf, Apraksin finally got his forces in order to besiege Konigsburg, who was being defended by Hans von Lehwaldt who had reinforced the garrison with the surviving Prussian army that they had previously fought.

The overly cautious and by some accounts, cowardly Apraksin, was disinclined to assault the walls despite the superior Russian forces, and the risk that another outbreak of smallpox might befall the army. He was also still nursing wounds he had received at the prior battle. This resulted in great displeasure of several of his subordinate officers and generals; who sent immediate word back to Russia. They believed if they did not attack soon, Fredrick might send a force to relieve the siege. Furthermore the harsh policies Apraksin had set in place against the Prussian civilians were creating enough resentment to make scouting, foraging and trading for supplies much more difficult.

After nearly two weeks of their commander not acting, a letter from Apraksin’s friend and mentor Chancellor Aleksey Bestuzhev to Apraksin was intercepted by the other generals. Within was instruction by Bestuzhev to recall the Russian army home and expressions of worry over enemies at court plotting his downfall. Withdrawing the army in the face of victory, ignoble on its own, was also counter to what they understood was the desires of Empress Elizabeth.

Generals Vasily Lopukhin, Pyotr Rumyantsev, and William Fermor, along with several senior officers, took the drastic step of relieving Apraksin of command, and commencing the assault on Konigsburg. On Septermber 20th, 72,000 strong Russians army faced off against 29,000 Prussian defenders and civilian militia.

The city fell, but it was a far harder fight than the Russians expected. The strong Prussian discipline and skill showed itself again, which even resulted in a surprise sortie that broke through the Russian siege lines allowing a fair portion of the Prussian army to escape surrender. Beyond expectations, the fight was more bloody than the one at Gross-Jägersdorf, with much close quarters fighting going on from house to house. The harsh treatment of the civilians by Apraksin’s directly affected the resistance of the civilians and their aid to the Prussian army.

Battle Results:
Russian Forces: 7500 dead or wounded,
Prussian Forces: 5000 dead or wounded, 10000 captured/surrendered. 14,000, including Prussian commander Hans von Lehwaldt escaped.
Civilian Losses: over 7,000 dead or wounded

Clear Russian Victory: Fall of East Prussia to the Russians.

Over the rest of the year, Hans von Lehwaldt would continue to harass the Russian army with his small force of 14,000 in a series of bloody skirmishes throughout East Prussia and the Western Poland, but with no direct battle confrontations. These actions would eventual cause the Russian forces in East Prussia to dwindle to 60,000 by years end (a loss of 4500 dead and wounded) In comparison, Lehwaldt’s army would only shrink to 12,000, for a loss 2000 dead and wounded as they significantly harried the Russian’s westward march.

Reaction of the Russian Court

When word arrived of the fall of Konigsburg, Empress Elizabeth was both pleased and concerned. She accepted the explanation of the generals and made Vasily Lopukhin’s de facto command of the Russian Army official, and recalled Apraksin. The orders granting Lopukhin official command of the Russian forces also included a note from the Empress herself, roughly translated as “Get on with it.”

As for Chancellor Aleksey Bestuzhev, when the questionable nature of the letter to Apraksin came to light, he found himself banished despite his denials as to its authenticity. Apraksin shared a similar fate upon his return home to the capital.

Now then we could of course view the time-streams to see exactly what was going on here, but that would be cheating wouldn’t it? I will say this, in our timeline, the reasons for the Russians retreat were varied, unknown and debatable. This is the same case here, except regarding the reasons for them not retreating. To the ancient historians of this timeline, just like ours at the time, they could only guess. So I ask, what is your guess? A smallpox epidemic befell the Russian army in the timeline as it did in our own, though numbers and timing where not the same, it did sap 25% of their original strength. In this timeline’s case the Russians didn’t retreat. In our timeline there was speculation that Apraksin was recalled to support the heir Peter III due to Empress Elizabeth’s illness, or that it was Bestuzhev recalling his friend due to threats from his own enemies. Well in this timeline no illness befell the Empress, though I am sure enemies and nemesis abounded in all the courts of that day and age. Was the letter’s authenticity as Bestuzhev claimed suspect? If so, it was certainly convenient that the letter was intercepted; and by the right peoples no less. Perhaps our counterpart time-stream historians examining their own histories and its alternates themselves wonder what would have been had the letter been received by Apraksin and the Russians retreated. Perhaps they too have even contemplated the outcome of a different roll of dice. Though before we lose ourselves in debate over the meta of the meta, let us resume our study of the timeline we have chosen.

Expedition to Capture Louisberg

The Earl of Loudon had been in command of British North American forces since his arrival in July of the prior year. Pitt’s new instructions regarding offensives finally reached Loudon in March, when planning was put in motion for an expedition to capture the French fortress of Louisberg. French intelligence however became aware of the plan and sent fleets to reinforce their holdings. Dubois de la Motte and Joseph de Bauffremont of Sainte Dominque and Joseph-François de Noble Du Revest together brought 16 ships of the line and 5 frigates to counter the British fleet.

Admiral Holborne of the British fleet knew the French had been reinforced, but it couldn’t be helped because of numerous delays, so the expedition was not ready.

Battle of Salmon Rock

On Septermber 24th, during temperamental weather, the British Fleet came upon the French fleet as it was on its way into the harbor at Louisberg to take shelter from the storm.

Not wanting to lose an opportunity, Admiral Holborne formed up a line to attack and attempt to cut off access to the harbor from the French. Unfavorable winds and heavy rain hindered his attempt, and he was unable to prevent the majority of the French fleet from slipping by him, though the British Fleet did delay them enough for a few volleys of shots to be exchanged.

In the high winds and seas, the exchange of cannon did little damage to the two fleets. The storm however would do far worse, and it cared not whose flag was being flown. As the ships fired on each other near shoals called Salmon Rock, a fierce gale came up that forced an immediate disengagement as the two sides attempted to retreat from each other. Mother Nature had different ideas and sent two British and two French ships into the rocks. A second French frigate was also blown aground into the shallows, though it would later be salvaged and freed by the high tide.

Battle Results:
French Forces: Loss of the Content (60 gun SOTL) and Licorne (30 gun frigate)
419 dead
British Forces: Loss of HMS Tilbury (58 gun SOTL) and Hastings (40 gun frigate).
213 dead, 437 captured (washed up on Ile Royale/Cape Breton
Winner: Mother Nature

The storm scattered the British fleet, but the French were unable to pursue as the reason for their retreat to the harbor (other than the storm) was an outbreak of illness among the sailors.

Raid on Rochefort

After numerous delays the plan to raid Rochefort finally got underway. This first stage, the capture of the Ilse of Aix was completed after HMS Magnamine and Barfluer destroyed the batteries of the fort defending the island. Shallow water, poor weather and trepidations of Sir John Morduant, commander of the land forces, continually delayed any landing attempts. Finally on September 29th, a landing force disembarked. Morduants fear of French forces hiding behinds the dunes and hills, and that surprise had long since been lost, proved correct. As the first wave of British troops came ashore, cannon and lines of French troops crested the hilltop and opened fire on the masses of British soldiers. The British fleet fired back immediately, but the French artillery, somewhere behind the hills were not directly visible, and thus proved too elusive to silence. A wave of reinforcements was attempted but tide and weather had begun to turn against them as the Royal Navy watched a slaughter occur on the beach, and called for a retreat. Before departing back for England, the only success they had to report upon return to London on October 7th, was the destruction of the fortifications on the Ilse of Aix.

Battle Results:
French Forces: 504 dead and wounded.
British Forces: 2357 dead and wounded. 1817 captured.

Clear French Victory: British descent on Rochefort repelled.

Berlin Raid

After his defeat at Kolin, Fredirck inadvertently left the approach to Berlin unprotected, which the Austrians took note of. They sent a cavalry force of 5000 led by Count András Hadik to the city. Upon arrival at the lightly garrisoned city on October 16th and attacking, Hadik demanded and received a ransom of nearly 250,000 Thalers. After receiving the sum however the force quickly fled upon learning of the approach of a larger Prussia force that was on its way in an attempt to intercept them.

A Four Front War

By mid-October, Fredrick was in dire straits and needed decisive victories to turn the tide. He was facing a four front war. The Austrians were attacking from the south, the Russians from the east, the French from the west and the Swedes from the North. The Swedish were rolling through Pomerania nearly unopposed because forces were needed to stop the Russian westward advance.

In the south, Hans Joachim von Zieten had taken the place of the deceased von Bevern and was tasked with holding off the Austrians who were steadily progressing through Silesia.

What reinforcements were possible were on their way to Field-Marshal Hans von Lehwaldt who was presently keeping the Russians in check while also rebuilding his army. Fredrick himself turned his attention to French forces to his west to try and push them back, and gather other German states to his cause.

Pomeranian Campaign

The 22,000 strong Swedish forces entered the war very much unprepared. This was the main reason for the slow progress and what ultimately saved Brandenberg from an invasion in late 1757. The Swedish troops coming out of Swedish Pomerania had poor steel, poor rifles and poor training. The Swedes had no reconnaissance troops, in they had fact no light troops at all. Mathias Alexander von Ungern-Sternberg, took command of the Swedish forces in Pomerania on October 10th. However for all their faults, they did well on their march through Prussian Pomerania, but only because Prussia was too busy fighting the other powers to put forth sufficient resistance.

Prior to October, while led by Count Hamilton, the Swedes had taken town of Anklim and Dennim, the islands of Walin and Usedom, and were preparing to besiege the important city of Stettin after being joined by 6000 troops sent by the Duke of Mecklenburg.

Battle and Siege of Stettin

27,000 Swedish and Mecklenburg Forces faced off against the Prussian garrison of Stettin at the mouth of the Oder River, accompanied by a small Swedish Naval squadron. The Prussians had just fewer than 10,000 troops, mostly fresh militia, recruited from Brandenburg, Prussian Pomerania, Magdeburg and Halberstadt. These forces were not part of the regular Prussian army, and several of these troops had already fought losing skirmishes against the Swedes early in the year as they made their advance. The Prussian forces were supported by a small flotilla of gun boats patrolling the River Oder. On October 20th, Ungern-Sternberg having arrived to take command of the Swedish Siege a week prior, assaulted Stettin after it had suffered two weeks of Siege and bombardment.

Battle Results:
Swedish Forces: 3,500 dead and wounded.
Prussian Forces: 2,000 dead and wounded. 3,000 surrendered. 5,000 retreated.

Clear Swedish Victory. Stettin falls to Swedish forces.

Battle of Rossbach

After pushing Hanover out of the war, the French forces united with Austrian forces to attempt to liberate Saxony from Prussian occupation. The 42,000 strong allied forces were led by Charles de Rohan, prince de Soubise, and Austrian Joseph Maria Frederick Wilhelm, duke of Saxe-Hildburghausen. The 22,000 strong Prussian forces were led by their King, Fredrick II.

On November 4th, in a series of brilliant maneuvers, and rapidly deployed artillery, the French and Austrian forces were soundly defeated, of which many were captured, including the French commander Charles de Rohan.

The great victory however came at a cost, as the King’s brother Prince Henry of Prussia, was felled by a musket ball.

Battle Results:
Allied Forces: 5500 dead and wounded, 4500 captured.
Prussian Forces: 600 dead and wounded

Overwhelming Prussian Victory

As a result of this battle the French and Austrian forces were forced to retreat from Saxony. It was one of the decisive victories that Fredrick needed; now he only needed to repeat it.

Additionally, when news of the victory reached London, King George II was finally convinced to disregard the treaty that had pushed Hanover out of the war. Pressure from Fredrick II and William Pitt caused the convention to be revoked. New British forces were sent to Germany under Duke Ferdinand of Brunswick to engage French forces across the Rhine and re-enter Hanover into the war.

Battle on the Oder

After hearing of the march on Stettin by Swedish forces and justly fearing it would fall, Prussian General Lehwalt, who was continuously skirmishing with Russian forces in an attempt to slow their westward advance sent 2,000 veteran troops westwards. He rightly assumed that the Swedes would attempt to join up with the Russian forces to his east and his army would be caught in the middle.

The Prussian forces arrived too late to stop the fall of Stettin but with careful reconnaissance, kept up with the Swedish troop movements. After joining with 2500 of the irregular Pomeranian troops that had fled the battle (the rest of those that had retreated deserted) the Prussian General Kanitz had only 4500 troops to stop some 20,000 Swedes from proceeding further to the east. The Prussians had mostly cavalry, light foot, and only light artillery, but also had surprise and the fact that the poorly trained and equipped Swedes had yet to face off against the regular Prussian army.

After leaving a garrison behind in Stettin, on November 8th, Ungern-Sternberg attempted to take 20,000 of his forces across the Oder only to discover how badly his bridging equipment or lack thereof was as the progress was slow and unwieldy. After half his forces were on the other bank, the Prussians attacked, catching the regiments on their side of the river off guard. Sternberg quickly attempted to get the rest of his army across only for the small boats he had commandeered for the task to start getting hit by Prussian artillery. Fearing that a far larger Prussian force awaited him on the other side, Sternberg sounded the retreat, and fell back to Stettin.

Battle Results:
Swedish Forces: 4,500 dead and wounded.
Prussian Forces: 400 dead and wounded.

Clear Prussian victory. Swedish forces eastward advance halted.

After Sternberg’s retreat, the Swedes caught on the other side of the river attempted to surrender; possibly up to 2000 men. However, with such a small force and a probably need to turn around and head back to the Russian front at a moment’s notice, they could ill afford to accept any prisoners. This resulted in one of the fell marks of the war, as the surrendering men were slaughtered.

A few days later, word arrived of the Prussian victory at Rossbach. Sternberg was now disinclined to follow the orders of his government or the French and march on Berlin or even reattempt to link up with Russia forces. However nor did he wish to give up the gains he had made thus far. Instead he sent word to the Russian forces in hopes that they would come to him. While he chose to have his armies wait out the winter holding Stettin.

Battle of Breslau

Von Zieten was tasked with holding Silesia off from Austrian occupation which was proving a significant challenge with only 30,000 soldiers. The Austrians though, led by Prince Charles Alexander of Lorraine and Count Leopold Joseph von Daun numbered over 84,000 once reinforced by Franz Leopold Nádasdy.

The Austrians wanted to take Breslau to deny it as a place for the Prussian army to winter in Silesia. In fierce village to village battle of exchanging artillery fire, the Austrian finally came upon the fortress of Breslau, while Nádasdy’s forces took the fortress of Schweidnitz. On November 23rd, after a day of battle the Prussians retreated back to Glogau.

Battle Results:
Austrian Forces: 6500 dead and wounded
Prussian Forces: 5250 dead and wounded

Austrian Victory

Prussia’s retreat back to Glogau was not easy amidst the more Austrian favoring residents of Breslau and the morale of the army was at an all-time low. Of the over 4000 Prussian garrison soldiers at the fortresses, who surrendered 3 days later, only about 600 went back to Glogua, while the rest deserted in mass.

After receiving word of this defeat, Fredrick knew he had to take on the Austrian army in Silesia to maintain control over the important province, or his ability to continue to war would be in serious jeopardy.

The winter of 1757 - 1758

A harsh winter was beginning to roll in for the end of 1757 and the start of 1758. Fredrick had pushed back the French, and against all odds, Lehwalt was holding off the Russians. Even the Swedes were currently content to sit on their laurels and wait for spring. All were preparing for the coming winter. Fredrick not so much, he still had more Austrians soldiers to kill.

Battle of Schweidnitz

One cold, foggy, winter’s afternoon, on December 8th, 1757, King Fredrick II, reunited his forces with Hans Joachim von Zieten and would bring his forces to bear against the Austrians led by Prince Charles Alexander of Lorraine.

In a lightning attack meant to draw the Austrians back from Breslau, Fredrick stormed the Fortress of Schweidnitz taken by the Austrians less than one month prior. The fortress was essential to maintain supplies to the Austrian army from Bohemia to Silesia, so Alexander was forced to turn back to reclaim it before it got even later into winter.

The Gothic Church of St. Stanislav and Vaclav from the 14th century had the highest tower in Silesia, standing 103 meters tall. Fredrick personally stood from its top spyglass in hand and watched the Austrians approach the city and make camp for the coming early winter night. The city and his own forces were obscured by the afternoon fog, while the Austrian’s less so, and their fires could still be seen as orange specks in the low grey cloud.

From this vantage Fredrick issued orders to maneuvers his forces for attack; and as the sun set behind him to his west he ordered the attack against the weary un-rested Austrians.

The combined armies of Fredrick and von Zieten numbered 40,000 against Alexander's 80,000. The attack was swift and brutal as the Austrians were caught unawares in the middle of making camp. Surprise was not perfect however, many sentries sounded the alarm on the left flank, but the fog and setting sun were in the Prussian’s favor. Before the last of the sun’s rays had disappeared over the horizon, the battle was over, Fredrick was victorious and the Austrians were retreating.

Battle Results:
Prussian Forces: 7000 dead and wounded
Austrian Forces: 10000 dead and wounded, 10000 captured, 110 cannon lost.

Decisive Prussian Victory, Austrians forced to flee back to Bohemia.

Upon hearing the news of the defeat, Empress Maria Theresa demanded the resignation of Prince Charles Alexander.

TL Summary 1757:
January 1st – The Nine Years War: French Forces raids Barbuda
January 2nd – The Nine Years War: Robert Clive recaptures Calcutta for Britain.
January 2nd – The Nine Years War: French Forces capture the island of Nevis
January 4th – The Nine Years War: French Forces begin siege of Brimstone Hill on St. Kitts.
January 5th – Robert-François Damiens makes an “unsuccessful” assassination attempt on Louis XV of France. On February 3rd, Damiens is publicly executed by dismemberment.
January 11th – Nine Years War: Battle of St. Kitts. French naval forces fight off British attempt to relieve siege of St. Kitts.
January 31st – Nine Years War: Brimstone Hill surrenders and St. Kitts falls to French forces.

February 2nd – King Louis XV dies to an infection.
February 15th – Nine Years War: Battle of Antigua. British naval forces drive off French attempt to destroy British fleet and invade Antigua.

March 1st – The Dauphin of France is crowned as King Louis XVI
March 10th – Nine Years' War: British Admiral Sir John Byng is executed by firing squad aboard HMS Monarch for breach of the Articles of War in failing to "do his utmost" at the Battle of Minorca (1756).
March 18th – Nine Years War: HMS Greenwich is captured by the French off San Domingo

April 20st – Nine Years War: Battle of Reichenberg. Prussian forces defeat the Austrians, but Marshal von Beven is mortally wounded and dies of his injuries 3 days later.
April 27th – Nine Years War: The Prussian aligned Canton of Neuchatel capitulates to France without conflict.

May 1st – 2nd Treaty of Versailles is signed between France and Austria
May 5th – Nine Years' War – Battle of Prague (1757): Frederick II defeats an Austrian army and begins to besiege the city.
May 15th – Nine Years War – 2nd Battle of St. Kitts: British chase off French Fleet, and after a failed initial assault, begin the 2nd Siege of Brimstone Hill.

May 30th – Nine Years War – British capture the 64 gun French ship Duc D’Aquitaine

June, British settlers have been completely withdrawn from Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia due to the frequency of Mik’maq raids.
June 18th – Nine Years' War – Battle of Kolin: Frederick is defeated by an Austrian army under Marshal Daun, forcing him to evacuate Bohemia.
June 23rd – Nine Years’ War - Battle of Plassey: 3,000 troops serving with the British East India Company under Robert Clive defeat a 50,000 strong Indian army under Siraj ud-Daulah at Plassey in India.
June 25th - Étienne François, duc de Choiseul is made Foreign minister of France

July 26 – Nine Years' War – Battle of Hastenbeck: An Anglo-Hanoverian army under the Duke of Cumberland is defeated by the French under Louis d'Estrées and forced out of Hanover.

August 3rd – August 9th – Nine Years' War: French and Indian War: A French army under Louis-Joseph de Montcalm forces the English to surrender Fort William Henry. The French army's Indian allies slaughter the survivors for unclear reasons.
August 20th – Nine Years War – French Garrison at Brimstone Hill surrenders. St Kitts and Nevis recapture by the British.
August 30th – Nine Years' War – Battle of Gross-Jägersdorf: A Prussian army under Hans von Lehwald is defeated by the Russian army of Marshal Stepan Apraksin.

September 6th – Nine Years War – Battle of Gorlitz (OTL Battle of Moys). 26000 Austrian troops defeats 13000 Prussian soldiers.
September 7th to 20th – Nine Years War – Siege of Konigsburg: Russian army under Stepan Apraksin lays siege to the East Prussian capital. It falls on September 20th after Apraksin was relieved of command by his subordinate generals.
September 21st - Nine Years' War: HMS Southampton captures the 28 gun French ship Emeraude. It is taken into service as HMS Emerald
September 24th – Nine Years War – Battle of Salmon Rock, British attempt to capture Louisberg fails as a storm sweeps both British and French ships into rocks and scatters the British fleet. (OTL 1757 Louisberg Expedition)
September 29th – Nine Years War: Raid on Rochefort. The British landing force is severely defeated by the French.

October 16th – Nine Years' War – Raid on Berlin: A Hungarian cavalry force extracts a ransom from the city of Berlin.
October 20th – Nine Years War: Battle of Stettin, Swedish forces capture the town of Stettin, and with it all of Western Prussian Pomerania.
October 21st – Unlike OTL Battle of Cap-Français, DOES NOT occur. French convoy and escort ships carry on without delay, meaning that Opiniatre, Greenwich and Outarde never wreck in a storm near France as in OTL.
October 30th – Unlike OTL, Osman III DOES NOT die. (Supposedly, he died from a staph infection in some cut or other injury. This injury did not occur in this TL.)

November 1st - Unlike OTL HMS Tartar never captures the French ship Melampe in this TL
November 4th – Nine Years' War – Battle of Rossbach: Frederick defeats the French imperial army under the Duc de Soubise and Prince Joseph of Saxe Hildburghausen, forcing the French to withdraw from Saxony. The Duc de Soubise is captured.
November 4th – Prince Henry of Prussia dies in battle.
November 8th – Nine Years War – Battle on the Oder. Swedish attempts to cross the Oder to join Russian forces are repulsed by the Prussians.
November 23rd – Nine Years' War – Battle of Breslau: An Austrian army under Prince Charles Alexander of Lorraine defeats the Prussian army of Hans Joachim von Zieten and forces the Prussians behind the Oder.

December – Unlike OTL the Blockade of Stralsund in Swedish Pomerania DOES NOT occur because the Russian forces never retreated from East Prussia.
December 4th - Unlike OTL the British never capture the 24 gun French ship Eurus in this TL
December 8th – Nine Years' War – Battle of Schweidnitz: Frederick defeats Prince Charles's Austrian army in one of his greatest tactical victories.
December 14th – Battle of Khresili: King Solomon I of Imereti defeats the Ottoman army and an allied faction of nobles in what is now western Georgia.
December 20th – Anna Petrovna, daughter of Catherine II and Peter III is born (conception occurred prior to the arrival of any time ripples)

Occurred mostly just like OTL
Occurred differently from OTL
Completely New Event for TTL
 
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Anyone have a name of a Prussian officer to suggest as being the one that defeated the Swedes at the Oder? He has to have been someone under Lehwalt in that theater.
 
Chapter 4: British Naval forces as of 1758
State of the British Navy 1/1/1758

British Fleet:

Ships of the Line


Launch Guns Name

1715 100 Royal Anne
1728 100 Royal Sovereign
1756 100 Royal George
1739 90 Duke
1740 90 St. George
1711 90 Princess Royal
1749 90 Ramillies
1750 90 Prince
1755 90 Namur
1756 90 Union
1757 90 Neptune

1757 84 Royal William
1757 80 Prince George
1757 80 Barfleur

1735 80 Russel
1747 80 Newark
1755 80 Cambridge
1757 80 Princess Amelia
1749 74 Torbay
1747 74 Culloden
1747 74 Invincible ( ex-french)
1747 74 Monarch (ex-french)
1747 74 Terrible (ex-french)
1748 74 Magnanime (ex-french)
1757 74 Dublin
1757 74 Norfolk
1737 70 Elizabeth
1739 70 Suffolk
1740 70 Essex
1740 70 Nassau
1740 70 Prince Fredrick
1742 70 Stirling Castle
1742 70 Monmouth
1748 70 Vanguard
1748 70 Somerset
1749 70 Orford
1750 70 Grafton
1750 70 Swiftsure
1750 70 Northumberland
1753 70 Chichester
1732 68 Marlborough
1757 68 Buford
1757 68 Dorsetshire
1748 66 Cumberland
1745 66 Devonshire
1749 66 Lancaster
1744 66 Hampton Court

1743 64 Captain
1743 64 Berwick
1744 64 Edinburgh
1745 64 Yarmouth
1747 64 Intrepid (ex-french)
1747 64 Fougueux (ex-french)
1747 64 Trident (ex-french)
1743 64 Alcide (ex-french)
1754 64 Duc d'Aquitaine (ex-french) captured 1757 just as in OTL
1751 64 Lion (ex-french) captured 1757 TTL
1741 64 Bedford
1734 60 Prince of Orange
1722 60 Plymouth
1735 60 Worchester
1736 60 Augusta
1736 60 Jersey
1738 60 Lyon
1740 60 Kingston
1742 60 Dreadnought
1742 60 Princess Mary
1745 60 Nottingham
1747 60 St Albans
1747 60 Anson
1747 60 Tiger
1752 60 Weymouth
1753 60 York
1755 60 Medway
1754 60 Dunkirk
1757 60 Achilles
1757 60 America
1757 60 Montagu
1757 60 Pembroke
1744 58 Princess Louisa
1744 58 Defiance
1745 58 Sunderland
1745 58 Eagle
1745 58 Windsor
1745 58 Vigilant (ex-french)

1745 52 Arc-En-Ciel (ex-french)
1732 50 Deptford
1727 50 Oxford
1732 50 Centurion
1740 50 Guernsey
1741 50 Hampshire
1741 50 Leopard
1741 50 Sutherland
1742 50 Antelope
1743 50 Chester
1743 50 Harwich
1744 50 Winchester
1744 50 Portland
1744 50 Falkland
1745 50 Salisbury
1745 50 Norwich
1746 50 Colchester
1746 50 Lichfield
1746 50 Bristol
1749 50 Rochester
1747 50 Assistance
1747 50 Tavistock
1752 50 Falmouth
1750 50 Newcastle
1747 50 Severn
1747 50 Isis (ex-french)
1757 50 Preston

Ships no longer in service

1703 100 Royal Anne broken up 1757 as OTL
1728 80 Princess Amelia broken up 1757 as OTL

1741 70 Royal Oak hulked 1757
as OTL
1742 70 Revenge sunk 1757 TTL
1751 70 Buckingham sunk 1756 TTL
1731 70 Ipswitch hulked 1757 as OTL
1736 60 Dragon sunk as a breakwater 1757 as OTL
1736 60 Superb broken up 1757 as OTL
1745 58 Tilbury sunk 1757 as OTL
1726 50 Romney sold 1757 as OTL
1747 50 Greenwich captued by French 1757 as OTL


Frigates of 30 guns or more

1741 44 Jason (ex-french)
1718 44 Enterprise
1743 44 Roebuck
1745 44 Chesterfield
1744 44 Ludlow Castle
1747 44 Thetis
1749 44 Woolwich
1746 44 Anglesea
1744 44 Glory (ex-french)
1744 44 Hector
1748 44 Humber
1712 44 Southsea Castle
1744 44 Mary Galley
1743 44 Torrington
1747 44 Penzance
1744 44 Poole
1747 40 Rainbow
1736 40 Eltham
1741 40 Dover
1741 40 Lynn
1741 40 Gosport
1741 40 Liverpool
1741 40 Kinsale
1741 40 Launceston
1746 40 Ambushcade (ex-french)
1757 36 Venus
1757 36 Pallas
1757 36 Brilliant
1741 32 Sapphire
1741 32 Adventure
1757 32 Southhampton
1757 32 Vestal
1757 32 Diana
1757 32 Richmond
1757 32 Juno
1744 30 Renown (ex-french)

Ships not in Service
1741 44 Diamond sold 1756 as OTL
1741 40 Hastings sunk 1757 TTL
1744 36 Melampe never captured TTL
1744 24 Eurus never captured TTL
1751 24 Dolphin captured by French 1756 TTL


Totals: 112 SOTL, 36 Frigates >= 30 guns, 51 frigates (20 - 29 guns)

I am not bothering to list frigates less than 30 guns. Obviously there are many more smaller ships of various types and roles, also not worth keeping track of. I probably forgot some SOTL or high gun frigates in the list, if you notice any let me know.
 
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Chpater 5: French Naval forces as of 1758
State of the French Navy 1/1/1758

French Fleet:

Ships of the Line


Launch Guns Name
1743 80 Tonnant
1749 80 Soleil Royal
1750 80 Foudroyant
1751 80 Formidable
1751 80 Duc de Bourgogne
1756 80 Ocean
1756 80 Orient (french east india company)
1720 74 Sceptre
1722 74 Duc d'Orleans
1723 74 Phenix
1723 74 Ferme
1725 74 Juste
1726 74 Saint-Esprit
1738 74 Superbe
1738 74 Dauphin-Royal
1746 74 Conquerant
1747 74 Intrepide
1747 74 Sceptre
1749 74 Magnifique
1749 74 Temeraire
1749 74 Couronne
1750 74 Florissant
1751 74 Entreprenant
1752 74 Redoubtable
1752 74 Palmier
1752 74 Heros
1753 74 Prudent
1753 74 Guerrier
1753 74 Courageux
1753 74 Algonquin
1753 74 Hermes
1754 74 Defenseur
1755 74 Hector
1756 74 Diademe
1756 74 Glorieux
1756 74 Zodiaque
1757 74 Centaure
1757 74 Minotaure
1757 74 Souverain
1705 70 Northumberland (ex-british)
1752 70 Centaure (french east india company)
1756 68 Comte-de-Provence (french east india company)
1756 68 Bien Aime (french east india company)
1750 64 Opinatre (sunk 1757 OTL, survived TTL)
1741 64 Saint Michael
1747 64 Triton
1747 64 Achille
1749 64 Orphee
1750 64 Hardi
1751 64 Bizarre
1751 64 Sage
1755 64 Vailliant
1753 64 Capricieux
1754 64 Bienfaisant (ex-british)
1756 64 Raisonnable
1757 64 Celebre
1756 64 Belliqueux
1755 64 Inflexible
1746 64 Dragon
1752 64 Actif
1751 64 Eveille
1755 64 Sphynx
1750 64 Illustre
1753 64 Duc-de-Bourgogne (french east india company)
1749 64 Hercule
1742 64 Leopard
1748 64 Protee
1745 60 Fier
1757 60 Venguer (french east india company)
1756 60 Sechelles (french east india company)
1756 60 Moras (french east india company)
1740 58 Apollon
1757 58 Fortune (french east india company)
1752 54 Saint-Louis (french east india company)
1754 54 Duc d'Orleans (french east india company)
1742 52 Anglesea (ex-british)
1744 50 Caribou
1744 50 Oriflamme
1749 50 Hippopotame
1749 50 Amphion
1750 50 Aigle
1747 50 Greenwich (ex-british) (sunk 1757 OTL, survived TTL)

Ships no longer in service
1751 64 Lion captured by the british, 1757 TTL
1754 64 Duc D'Aquitaine captured by british, 1757 as OTL
1733 62 Warwick ex-british captured 1756 as OTL, sunk 1757 TTL
1747 60 Content sunk, 1757 TTL
1726 50 Alcyon sunk, 1757 TTL

1746 64 Lys captured by british 1755 (prior to POD)
1741 64 Alcide captured by british 1755 (prior to POD)

1714 60 Toulouse condemned 1755 (prior to POD)
1722 64 Elisabeth condemned 1756
(prior to POD)
1730 60 Heureux hulked 1755
(prior to POD)
1722 64 Solide hulked 1756
(prior to POD)

Frigates >= 30 guns

Launch Guns Name
1757 46 Marechal de Belle Isle
1753 44 Conde (french east india company)
1744 44 Outarde (sunk 1757 OTL, survived TTL)
1748 44 Junon (lost 1757 OTL, survived TTL)
1755 44 Duc d'Berry (french east india company)
1733 42 Aquilon (lost 1757 OTL, survived TTL)
1757 40 Fortune
1756 30 Chimere
1756 36 Hebe
1756 36 Danae
1756 36 Sylphide (french east india company)
1750 30 Rose
1756 32 Felicite
1757 32 Bouffonne
1757 32 Malicieuse
1756 32 Vestale
1756 32 Aigrette
1755 32 Brune
1755 32 Blonde
1741 32 Atlante
1755 32 Pleiade
1757 32 Baleine (french east india company)
1756 30 Minerve
1757 30 Oiseau
1756 30 Sauvage
1757 30 Hermine
1757 30 Opale
1752 30 Comete
1754 30 Fleur de Lys
1744 30 Sirene
1754 30 Amethyste
1749 30 Pomone

Ships no longer in service
1755 30 Licorne sunk 1757 TTL
1747 38 Favorite hulked 1757 as OTL

1756 38 Abenaquise sunk 1757 TTL
1741 30 Zephyr sunk 1757 TTL

Totals: 82 SOTL, 32 frigates >= 30 guns, 18 frigates (20 - 29 guns)

I am not bothering to list frigates less than 30 guns. Obviously there are many more smaller ships of various types and roles, also not worth keeping track of. I probably forgot some SOTL or high gun frigates in the list, if you notice any let me know.
 
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Chapter 6: 1758 part 1
1758

The ripples of time had passed over the Iberian peninsula several times over by the arrival of New Year ’s Day of 1758 as small changes here and there beget large and larger ripples. Once again no specific agent was the cause of the next change at the Spanish court, only the indirect actions that would lead different persons to be at different places at different times. The Queen of Spain, the Infanta Barbara of Portugal, was one such occurrence. She took developed a chill in late December sometime after Christmas that produced a mighty cough. Her poor health and severe asthma exacerbated this as the combination of asthma and congestion in her chest did her in on the 1st of January. After his wife’s passing, King Ferdinand VI would fall into a fit of depression, withdraw from the court and public life, and let his ministers run the country as they would. Over the course of the year, this, along with directives from Versailles, and the souring of ties between Spain and Portugal (Britain’s frequent ally) due to the Queen’s death, would lead to gains by the French ambassadors in altering the Spanish policies away from neutrality back in favor toward France.

A Year for the Navies

Almost every state involved in the conflict would see action on the high seas at some point during the year. Both Great Britain and France would see several new ships being launched over the year, but they would also see several ships sunk and captured.

The French had already been undergoing a review of naval plans and financing planned ship construction and purchases began a few months after King Louis XVI was sworn in. During the year, the French would see (as per OTL) five new ships of the line were launched or purchased, the Fantasque (64), Solitaire (64), Robuste (64), Comte de Saint Florentine (60), and the purchase of the Brilliant (64) and four new frigates launched the Arethuse (36), Harmonie (34), Pelerine (32) and the Bellone (32). In addition the Marine Royale would also purchase the Comte d’Argenson (56) from the French East India Company prior to it even launching. Existing plans for French ships scheduled to be built in 1759 or 1760 were left largely intact, but a few new orders were made. The Duc d’Orleans (74), Saint Espirit (74), Phenix (74), Ferme (74) and the Caribou (50), prior to the war had been declared unfit and relegated to harbor service. They would were now slated for a rebuild. Additionally one new ship of the line was ordered and to be named after King Louis XVI’s wife and Queen, the Maria Josepha, Most of these new ship orders and rebuilds would take more than a year to complete.

The British had few changes to their planned orders during the year and would see (as per OTL) ten ships of the line come into service, the Lenox (74), Shrewsbury (74), Warspite (74), Resolution (74), Temple (70), Conqueror (68), Rippon (60), and Edgar (60). Additionally, five 32 gun frigates were launched, the Minerva, Thames, Stag, Alarm and Aeolus; and eight smaller 28 gun frigates were launched in 1758.
 
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Chapter 7: 1758 part 2
Battle of Malaga

The amount of repairs needed for Hawke’s Gibraltar fleet resulting from the two Minorca battles in 1756, and the length of time it took for the damaged ships to travel to England, complete repairs and return prevented the British from having the strength needed to keep a tight blockade on Toulon. The French too had pursued repairs in Toulon but there were less repairs needed and the distance was shorter.
Now both the British and the French Mediterranean fleets were at full strength again. The French having heard of the renewed British plan to take Louisburg desired to reinforce it again and sent a fleet out from Toulon to New France under Jean-François de La Clue. The British likewise did not want to let this happen and ordered Admiral Henry Osborn to make plans to intercept and prevent the Toulon fleet from leaving the Mediterranean.

The French fleet had weathered a storm in Categena last November, of which the British were aware, but Osborn was still awaiting the return of some of his fleet ships at the time. What resulted instead was a cat and mouse game over the Alboran Sea over the next month that cost Osborn the loss of one small frigate to French capture, as the fleets sought each other out.

Finally early in the morning on January 5th, just south of the Spanish city of Malaga the two large fleets met each other and formed up in a line of battle. The French has the sun at their backs and a slightly larger fleet, but the British had the favor of the wind.

French Fleet: (19)
13 Ships of the Line: Temeraine (74), Couronne (74), Redoubtable (74), Guerrier (74), Centaure (74), Triton (64), Sage (64), Fier (60), Hippopotamae (50), Ocean (80), Conquerant (74), Hector (74), Achille (64)
6 Frigates: Requin (24), Minerve (30), Oiseau (30), Gracieuse (24), Indiscret (24) and the Dolphin (24)

British Fleet: (14)
9 Ships of the Line: Monmouth (70), Royal Anne (100), Monarch (74), Berwick (64), Swiftsure (68), Hampton Court (66), Montagu (60), St. George (90), Guernsey (50)
5 Frigates: Ambushcade (40), Vestal (32), Unicorn (24), Lyme (28), Privateer Boscawan (30)

Although outnumbered, with adept maneuvering Osborn is able to put up a fierce assault against the French ships before La Clue is able to bring all of them to bear. The Triton and Achille become entangled and receive heavy damage. However the Royal Anne and the Berwick receive powerful return broadsides as the as each is forced to take on two French ships a piece.

The Boscawan, Ambuscade and Vestal attempt to capture the foundering Triton and Achille but at the last moment the two ships are separated and return heavy fire sending the Boscawan to the bottom, crippling the Ambushcade and forcing the Vestal to flee. Likewise the Requin goes down and the Hippopotamae and Minerve are forced to flee under fire after an aborted attempt to capture the demasted Berwick.

By late morning two-thirds of the British fleet had engaged half the French fleet, and half the fleet of each side was damaged. La Clue, realizing he would not be able to bring his fleet across the Atlantic in such condition began to disengage in an orderly fashion. Osborn, having accomplished his main objective of prevent the French fleet from leaving the Mediterranean, pulled away to tend to his ailing ships. He did not desire to pursue the French without obtaining more reinforcements from Gibraltar.

While this battle against superior forces was considered an important victory that helped restore the faith in the Navy, the French gave the British Mediterranean fleet a bloody nose that day, the extent of which would not be fully known until the damaged ships attempted to return to England for assessment.

Battle Results:
British Fleet:
Royal Anne condemned upon assessment of damage after return to England
Distressed Berwick sunk during attempt to return to England for repairs
Privateer Boscawan sunk in action.
Damaged Vestal captured by French Atlantic Fleet on attempt to return to England
One-Third of the surviving fleet damaged

French Fleet:
Triton sunk in action
Achille foundered during return to Toulon
Requin sunk in action
Hippopotamae condemned upon damage assessment after return to Toulon
Half the surviving fleet damaged

Bideford (20) captured by French prior to battle and sent back to Toulon

(Note 2/28/1758 OTL Battle of Cartegena does not occur)
 
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[FONT=&quot]Heh. A French frigate "Hippopotame". Is this a wink,wink,nudge,nudge to another TL set in the same period[FONT=&quot]?[/FONT][/FONT]
 
Well I just found this TL and read through.

First - thats one I plan to follow

Second - minor nitpicks ;)

a) d’Arnouville - while he opposed the alliance with Austria - I doubt he would speak against it when France is already fully committed (the new king fortunately sees this ;))

b) 2. Treaty of Versailles - I assume you did change it a bit - OTL the Austrians admitted to an indirect French control (a french aligned independent monarch - duke of Parma was envisioned) AFTER Silesia was regained. Your TL suggests IMMEDIATE French Control (not happened OTL). "Freeing" Austrian troops for other duties. I assume Austria would like to have MORE out of the treaty if the transfer of control happpens immediately.

But I assume both won't have much influence to the big picture

With the changes up to now I expect a French (Austrian) victory (I'd like to have Silesia back to Austria ;))

THis has the potential to challenge my favourite 1700s TL (Frederick dies at LEuthen :D)
 
a) d’Arnouville - while he opposed the alliance with Austria - I doubt he would speak against it when France is already fully committed (the new king fortunately sees this ;))

b) 2. Treaty of Versailles - I assume you did change it a bit - OTL the Austrians admitted to an indirect French control (a french aligned independent monarch - duke of Parma was envisioned) AFTER Silesia was regained. Your TL suggests IMMEDIATE French Control (not happened OTL). "Freeing" Austrian troops for other duties. I assume Austria would like to have MORE out of the treaty if the transfer of control happpens immediately.
Think of it as him still advising the King not to get in too deep or something, the King nodding politely and saying well were going that way anyway.

Not quite, the Treaty is mostly like OTL, AFAIK though, the French did move some troops in order to allow needed Austrian troops the ability to go west. A client state is still expected though after Silesia is conquered. It is still a question of whether or not there will be a 3rd treaty that removes the clause.

EDIT: I have edited the original post regarding the treaty to better clarify what occurred.

Like OTL, Austria and France didn't stop Fredrick as quickly as they were hoping, and he kicked Austria out of Silesia. However unlike OTL he cant stay there to defend it with the Russians and Swedes knocking on Berlin's door in Spring 1758. This gives Austria potential time to renew their advance while the cat's away.
 
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Chapter 8: 1758 part 3
To Russia with Love

The harsh 1757 – 1758 winter was felt even harder on Prussia troops. Fredrick had moved northwards after defeating the Austrians in Silesia late into the season, and started marching again early in the spring in order to confront the Russian and Swedish threat and prevent them joining forces. The cost of this partial winter march would be nearly 2000 men, dead from exposure or lost to desertion. He had to abandon his original plans to invade Moravia, and without doubt the Austrians would surely renew their advance into Silesia. To attempt to counter this he had to leave a portion of his forces behind with Von Zieten and instructions to raise as many new troops as possible. Fredrick feared it would only slow the Austrians not stop them so he needed a quick decisive victory against the Russians, followed up with one against the Swedes, and hope that the British keep the French busy so that he could bring the army south again.

He had words and promises that the British were pinning down the French troops in the western provinces, but Fredrick had made a desperate plea last fall for British naval aid in the Baltic. The Russian and Swedish Navies were already in the process of blockading the Prussian coast. Their response came just before Fredrick planned to start the spring campaign, that “the ships were needed elsewhere”

Parliament however, did understand of the pressing need for aid, but with demands for the planned attack on New France, descents on the French coasts, and blockades, they really couldn’t afford to divert significant naval assets to the Baltic. In closed backrooms however, an alternative was suggested and a small squadron of Privateers set sail for the Baltic, crewed by unofficial and unaffiliated adventurers of course.

The Russians, after taking Konigsburg had spent the rest of fall and early winter securing the Vistula all the way to Thorn where they had wintered, and other parts of East Prussia. General Lopukhin was actually becoming displeased at the slowness of progress and the relative hesitancy of some of the other generals. One thing he did agree with is the reversal of Apraksins harsh policies against the civilians which made obtaining supplies much easier. The overall plan was to head westwards in Spring to take the city of Bromberg and continue onwards to Stettin and aid the Swedish offensive south, if one ever materialized. Though Lopukhin had sent word back to Russia for the request of reinforcements, he believed that with Fredrick tied down in Silesia he would be able to unite with the Swedes and threaten Berlin or Frankfurt and still be in a position to aid the Austrians as well. However, Fredrick was not currently tied down.

Battle of Thorn

Lopukhin had a force of about 60,000 camped outside of Thorn when he heard reports of a Prussian army about half that size in the near vicinity. He quickly mustered his army in order to receive or an attack or move against them, though he did not know it was led by Fredrick himself.

Fredrick with 30,000 mostly veteran, but very war weary troops had lost the element of surprise he was hoping to achieve, but at least had managed to get his army across the Vistula before being noticed. He knew he had to face down the Russian army anyway.

The Russian generals maneuvered cautiously while Fredrick sent several probing and feint attacks, before both armies finally met in force on March 15th. Through discipline and yet another example of rapid artillery deployment, the Prussian’s drove the Russian army from the field. The victory was sorely needed by Fredrick, but was not nearly as decisive as he desired. The Russians fled in an orderly retreat. Later reports would confirm that they would stop at East Prussia, near Konigsburg again rather than flee all the way back to Russia.


Battle Results:
Prussian Forces: 4000 dead and wounded
Russian Forces: 5200 dead and wounded, 12 cannon captured.

Despite his victory, Fredrick declines to pursue the Russian army out of the need to both face Sweden, and be able to return south again toward Silesia as soon as possible.
 
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Thanks for the feedback and praise, but no comments on what's unfolding?

Believable? Not believable? What do you think is likely to happen next and why?

It's all fairly plausible (though I think the French have been lucky). I do think the assassination of Louis XV is too off the wall to be a butterfly. Such things are very unlikely.

One recommendation: don't write "the HMS Pinafore". That's effectively writing "the His Majesty's Ship Pinafore", which clanks. And ship names should be italicized.

Also, the Crown Prince of France was the Dauphin. The Dauphine was his wife. And the Russian general was Apraksin, not Apraskin.
 
It's all fairly plausible (though I think the French have been lucky). I do think the assassination of Louis XV is too off the wall to be a butterfly. Such things are very unlikely.

One recommendation: don't write "the HMS Pinafore". That's effectively writing "the His Majesty's Ship Pinafore", which clanks. And ship names should be italicized.

Also, the Crown Prince of France was the Dauphin. The Dauphine was his wife. And the Russian general was Apraksin, not Apraskin.

Robert Damiens really did try to kill King Louis XV OTL. In TTL He wasn't assassinated so much as died of an infected wound.

Made the other edits/corrections

Thanks for the feedback!
 
Chapter 9: 1758 part 4
Something Fishy Going On

Swedish merchant ships attempting to resupply the Swedish forces in Stettin and Pomerania had been harassed by private craft during the early spring. This resulted in 3 merchant ships captured. While Great Britain would dare not admit such the Swedish court suspected their involvement. These three craft and their cargo would remain a sticking point on future grievances. The privateers while desiring to sell their prizes in England knew no such sales would be made, just for the sake of avoiding appearances. The Netherlands when getting word of the attempt to sell such prizes at their docks disallowed the transactions. Denmark however was willing to look the other way or perhaps legitimately weren’t aware of the transactions that took place at their docks. A fourth, Russian merchant ship had also been captured, but the privateers had been unaware it was a Russian ship, or perhaps they were disregarding their instructions to only harass the Swedish. The fate of this ship became unknown to historians, but it was believed to have run aground and been burnt.

The Russian and to a lesser degree, the Swedish response to these attacks ultimately resulting in the sinking of 3 of the privateer vessels with all hands and the capture of a fourth by a Russian ship. The reaction of the Russian court when this was discovered was one of great anger. Again the Russians strongly suspected British involvement which they denied. Some hawkish members of court called for an official declaration of war against Great Britain, but cooler heads prevailed.

After this defeat; and the accusations being brought forth the following summer, no more ‘private adventurers’ harassed the fleets in the Baltic.

2nd Siege of Stettin and the Battle of Oder Lagoon

It took over a month for Fredrick to reorganize his forces to prepare to retake Stettin from the Swedes. He had discovered though that the Swedes had reinforced their garrison with additional men and artillery from their Navy and control of the islands north. What small hastily commandeered navy Prussia had would attempt to assist as Fredrick bombarded the fortress from land and laid siege to the city. Fredrick began the siege on April 18th, attempting to recapture the city with 26,000 regular troops and 4000 irregular and freshly recruited, largely untrained forces. The Swedish forces numbered 16,000 and about 2000 fresh arrivals and were led by Count von Rosen, who had recently replaced Ungern-Sternberg.

Fredrick had ordered the creation of a navy; if you could call it such, prior to setting off to meet the Russian’s in battle. It was really just many commandeered fishing vessels outfitted with light cannon or riverine vessels and barges from the Oder. By the time he was prepared to besiege the Swedes, he had about 22 small craft to patrol the Oder River and the lagoon.

Of course he wasn’t alone in the lagoon. Vessels from the Swedish navy were there as well, but Fredrick had waited for a fair portion of them to depart before commencing the siege and assault on Stettin.

When the siege and assault commenced; the Swedish vessels that had remained moved to engage the Prussian vessels as they exited the mouth of the Oder. The skirmishes on the lagoon were frequently one sided, but served to distract the Swedish vessels from proving full support for the fortress.

On the first day of the assault Fredrick’s forces took the area around the town of Stettin, gaining what supplies they could, but not the critically important fortress that the Swedes were quite secure in. A few days later, Fredrick had the misfortune of witnessing the arrival of a Russian ship of the line and several smaller supporting vessels. In short order what was left of the makeshift the Prussian navy was utterly destroyed. The Russian squadron had arrived expecting to meet and supply Russian forces that had met up with the Swedes, but apparent had set sail before learning of Fredrick’s victory at Thorn.

Despite trying for three weeks, Fredrick could not dislodge the Swedes from Stettin, and it was becoming ever more obvious the siege would be ineffective while the defenders could so easily be supplied by sea. When word finally reached him of events happening south in Silesia, he was forced to take the majority of his army to face the Austrians again. He left just enough behind with Lehwaldt to keep the Swedes hemmed in to prevent them from moving any further south. Count von Rosen was content to remain in Stettin, keeping control over what Sweden had gained without taking any further risks.

Battle Results:
Prussian Forces: 2000 dead and wounded, Prussian ‘navy’ destroyed.
Swedish Forces: 1400 dead and wounded
 
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Prussia would really love bribing Denmark and the strong danish inland sea fleet into helping them in the baltics ... even with little support from Britain, Denmark would be strong enough to contest the southern baltics, and pull the Swedish focus away from Stettin, giving Prussia enough breathing room to act
 
Prussia would really love bribing Denmark and the strong danish inland sea fleet into helping them in the baltics ... even with little support from Britain, Denmark would be strong enough to contest the southern baltics, and pull the Swedish focus away from Stettin, giving Prussia enough breathing room to act

But that would bring Denmark into conflict with both Sweden and Russia, which would look as extremely unwise from a Danish perspecitve I think, especially at a time where Russia and Denmark had actually some "disagreements" about Schleswig-Holstein. Also, could the Dutch afford to stay neutral if Denmark enters the game? (and which side are they more likely to join? I cannot see them looking kindly at either French control of the Low Countries and British dominance of the seas in conjunction with Denmark).
 
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