A different 1866 peace

[LordKalvan]

The Spanish Succession War occurred at a time when France was the dominant continental power. ITTL it is just been ripped a new one by the German-Italian duo that is now widely acknowledged as the new dominant power in Europe after the triumphs over Austria and France. French hegemony over Spain is therefore much more acceptable for Britain than it was in 1701 or 1808.

Since the alternative would be a German or Italian prince being installed as king of Spain, I do agree that the Franco-Spanish union might be regarded bythe British as a lesser evil

A movement that had the strength to fight three civil wars in a century is no fringe.

Never really understood how the Carlists could manage to promote 3 civil wars in a row, but it actually happened

Sorry for your pro-Habsburg sympathies, but ITTL the downfall of Austria makes perfect sense. ITTL Italy is acknowledged in Europe as a great power after its magnificent victories over Austria and France (and its economic development is also getting a better headstart than OTL). It enjoys the full support of Germany that regards it as its main ally. If ITTL Italy wants to claim Dalmatia when the Habsburg house of cards collapses, nobody in Europe is going to daresay them, much less the Magyars that basically can only smile and be grateful that Berlin and Rome are letting them keep all their traditional territories and Croatia to be a bulwark against Russian expansionism. Please don't try and project OTL clichès on a TL where they have no reason to exist. Paper tiger my butt.

It's part of the alternate history cliches: Austria-Hungary ad the ERE have to survive forever and ever, against all chances

Bismarck would not at this time be much interested in colonial or naval-bases gains at the price of alienating Britain, so selling Greenland and neutralizing Iceland makes sense, it would appease Britain considerably and letting Germany and Italy keep their combined shares majority of the Suez Canal without British opposition, which he (rightfully) deems more valuable. Iceland and Greenland would only be really valuable to Germany if it planned a naval race and a war with Britain, and nothing could be more alien from Bismarck's plans.

Quite a good point: I'm also convinced that the British must be appeased in terms of the Suez canal (IOTL they bent backwrd to delay the realization of the canal; ITTL they will be not really impressed by an effective Italo-German codominium on what they rightly consider the jugular of the Raj.

You may notice that the 3rd A-A war starts when Britain overreacts to the Fenian raids' success, blaming them on America at large (which would be basically untrue, only US private groups and rogue sectors of the US military truly supported them) and declaring war. ITTL what extra support the Fenians gain is enough to make them reap impressive success against the poor Canadian militias and this pushes Britain to overreact. If attacked by Britain, America would defend itself at the best of its considerable strength and even many Southerners would side with the North in such a war. In many ways, it would be a shark vs. tiger war, the post-ACW US Amry would be supreme on land and conquer Canada quickly, the RN would dominate the high seas but America does not fold quickly because of blockade alone. While it fights the US, Britain is also harried by the Irish insurrection and worried by Russian expansionism in the Balkans, attempts to reconquer Canada become costly failures and Britain decides to cut its losses and accept a compromise peace that recovers Atlantic and most of Central Canada for the British Empire. Mostly they only concede Western Canada which is still a largely empty stretch of land. Southern Ontario stings but America accepts to pay for the land it acquires and indemnify Loyalist Ontarians that relocate to Northern Ontario. America accepts the UK purchase of Alaska as yet another mollifying gesture to Britain. They don't care much at that point, they are getting western Canada which to their eyes is much more valuable than Alaska.

We've never seen eye to ey on the issue of the Western Canada, but I'll refrain from further nagging

ITTL Catholic Germans, Austrians, and Italians quickly become Old Catholics during the Kulturkampf, that doctrinally are all but indistinguishable from Anglicans and Lutherans.

Which also goes to improve the relations with Germany, Great Britain and USA

*Sigh* You really ought not to project OTL prejudices on TLs where they have no reason to exist. ITTL Italy has fought two major wars in a quick row on the side of Prussia/Germany, joining their allies from the start, pulling their own weight, and substantially contributing to victory in both cases. Opportunist vultures my butt. TTL Bismarck and the Junkers have no reason to deem the alliance with Italy anything but fully reliable, a valuable asset, and a cornerstone of German foreign policy. Conversely, they regard TTL Austria, which has got its butt on a plate by France, Prussia, and Italy alike in a mere seven years and is doddering on the brink of domestic collapse, as worthless, a failed former great power only ripe for irredentist pickings. And again, the Catholic schism is making them less wary of annexing German Austria and Bohemia-Moravia.

As we discussed earlier in the TL, the 1869 war will most likely be precipitated by an impulsive war declaration of France, just like the 1870 war IOTL: only ITTL France will declare war against Italy, and Prussia will come in on the strength of the alliance. Quite hard to talk of "Italian opprtunism" under these circumstances

Russia would have been a good ally for the German-Italian duo if Austria by some political miracle (a quadruple Ausgleich extended to the Czechs and Croats that the Magyars, Franz Joseph, and his reactionary advisors find acceptable) had against all odds stabilized, recovered, and gone to join an alliance with France-Spain. Since it does fall, Berlin and Rome have much less reason to tolerate and foster Russian expansionism in the Balkans. Hence, Britain is a better perspective ally at the moment.

My heart-felt belief is that a successful Italy and a successful Germany cannot choose Russia as an ally: Italy has to protect their future sphere of influence in the Balkans, as well as Germany has kown for 7 centuries at least where their Lebensraum is. Not to mention that both have a sworn enemy to the west. Which means that Italo-Germany strategy has to target a friendship with Great Britain on one side, and a peaceful economic penetration-with shoring up of the Ottoman empire on the other one.

 

[Eurofed]

Since the alternative would be a German or Italian prince being installed as king of Spain, I do agree that the Franco-Spanish union might be regarded bythe British as a lesser evil

So very true.

Never really understood how the Carlists could manage to promote 3 civil wars in a row, but it actually happened

Yup. Nonetheless, it indeed happened, and hence with massive French and Papal-Catholic support, it is quite plausible that the Third Carlist War may end in a Carlist victory.

It's part of the alternate history cliches: Austria-Hungary ad the ERE have to survive forever and ever, against all chances

So very true. And apart from the general clichè, Nivek seems to be an Habsburgophile with a distaste of Italowanks which has not forgotten nor forgiven me for manipulating butterflies to ensure the fall of A-H in the CP Italy victory scenario I authored. Apparently lingering distaste for that spilled over in the review of TTL, despite the fact that here the rise of Italy and the fall of Austria has overwhelming justification nonetheless.

Quite a good point: I'm also convinced that the British must be appeased in terms of the Suez canal (IOTL they bent backwrd to delay the realization of the canal; ITTL they will be not really impressed by an effective Italo-German codominium on what they rightly consider the jugular of the Raj).

Very true. However, we must also be mindful that IOTL Britain reluctantly tolerated French ownership of the Canal, until they were in the position to buy Egyptian shares cheap, and later Anglo-French co-ownership, decades before France sfhited from rival to friend. Hence, it does not stand to reason that Britain would react with more hostility to ownership by two powers that are much less credible colonial competitors in the 1860s. All in all, TTL solution by which Germany, Italy, and Britain agree to share ownership of the Canal in equal standing seems a balanced solution to address UK sensible concerns.

Which also goes to improve the relations with Germany, Great Britain and USA

So very true.

As we discussed earlier in the TL, the 1869 war will most likely be precipitated by an impulsive war declaration of France, just like the 1870 war IOTL: only ITTL France will declare war against Italy, and Prussia will come in on the strength of the alliance. Quite hard to talk of "Italian opprtunism" under these circumstances.

Very true as well, even if I definitely fancied wrapping up Rome and Luxemburg as a casus belli for various reasons (not the least that it gives Prussia full justification for annexing Luxemburg). But yes, in both TTL 1866 and 1868 Italy has fought alongside its German ally from the start, and its reputation for opportunism shall be non-existent. Heck, ITTL the German-Italian alliance is going to become the poster child for loyalty and reliablity, not the Anglo-American one.

My heart-felt belief is that a successful Italy and a successful Germany cannot choose Russia as an ally: Italy has to protect their future sphere of influence in the Balkans, as well as Germany has kown for 7 centuries at least where their Lebensraum is. Not to mention that both have a sworn enemy to the west. Which means that Italo-Germany strategy has to target a friendship with Great Britain on one side, and a peaceful economic penetration-with shoring up of the Ottoman empire on the other one.

Well, I am not so radically opposed to the idea of the German-Italian-Russian Triple Alliance in that I could easily see a successful German-Italian alliance to embrace Russia if and only if Austria had somehow stabilized and gone on to make an ironclad Entente with France. I wholly agree that once Austria meets its inevitable demise, there is no real reason for the Berlin-Rome duo to pick Russia instead of Britain and Turkey as an ally.