1920 - The fall of Warsaw

After WW1 will ordinary people really be prepared to fight Communism with which many might actually sympathise?
The German communists had a potential of about 10% voter share and its party (VKPD) about 300 000 members. Among its members there was a strong moderate wing which was often not exactly in favour of the USSR and dubious about the chances of revolution in Germany. Some, but by far not all of that segment of society might support an uprising, even among that group probably only a minority by taking arms itself.
Next to that there is another share of about 10% which is socialist and pacifist, but not communist (the remains of the USPD). They probably would oppose any war, but won´t act actively against the German state, though they might resist passively.
About 30% are fundamentally nationalistic orientated (about evenly pro- and antidemocratic) and will welcome any chance to get rid of Versailles. Most won´t be exactly enthusiastic about a new war, but will support it fully.
The remaining 50% are far less nationalistic and firmly pro-democracy, still fundamentally also opposed to Versailles and Communism. They will be far less enthusiastic than the nationalists, but in a defensive war against enemies without or within they will support the republic as long as they see a decent chance to win.
 
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“That seems still a lot less than the Russians can bring to bear upon us.” Fehrenbach pointed out.


Seeckt nodded, but shrugged at the same time. “We know. By our estimates the Red Army has somewhere about 800 000 men in Poland. 200 000 of those will at least be needed to garrison it. Aside of the infantry we also have two cavalry divisions in position as mobile reserve. Even then we will be outnumbered 4:1. In time we will be able to prepare further units. But given the nature of this threat, we do not dare to expose our rear areas too much.”


Some of the cabinet members began to nod and the chancellor turned to this matter: “I think we can all agree that a communist insurrection is the most likely casus belli and it is in our interest to avoid or at least quickly suppress it. What precautions have been taken to that end?”


Fehrenbach looked at Seeckt as he asked that, but the general let Erich Koch, the minister of the interior answer. The army would be doing the heavy lifting, but it was technically within Koch´s area of responsibility. Under the circumstances it would make working together easier if he showed respect for that. The minister adjusted his glasses before speaking.


“Essentially we are doing the same as on our border. The Länder are raising a lot of paramilitary police units and we are shifting them into the areas most likely for an uprising. Furthermore some veteran groups have been prepared and equipped, which are considered reliable at least to fight communists."


Seeckt kept his face carefully under control. He had wanted to keep it simple and to arm only one organisation, the Stahlhelm. But he was not in full control due to the unofficial nature of these units. Bavaria had its Einwohnerwehren still in place, which were at least more or less organised. With their supposed numbers he was not completely sure about their reliability though.


In other regions some groups were barred from the state support for political reasons, while others could not be integrated into a wider organisation because they did not get along with each other. The RJF for example was a reliable group, but due to its nature locally often not numerous enough to form useful units. Despite this the Stahlhelm refused to integrate with them, because their anti-semitism was more important to them. Unaware that Seeckt thoughts had wandered Koch had continued and as he turned to him Seeckt snapped his thoughts back to the meeting.


“... Therefore the Reichswehr has kept several divisions at hand as quick reaction forces. Herr General?”


“Yes. We decided to keep the 3rd, 5th and 6th divisions plus the 3rd cavalry division in their bases for that reasons. With those units we have covered most potential hotspots and can react immediately, where necessary, giving the volunteers time to assemble. Meanwhile the police garrisons have to hold the fort elsewhere.”
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
At this time most of the red seamen should have left the navy. The navy, the so called Vorläufige Reichsmarine, could choose their soldiers very well, whom to keep or whom to fire. There should be mostly loyal forces left. Here is BTW a ship list I found in LOTLOF's thread. It should be accurate, but I did not have a look on every ship:

German fleet 1920:

Predreadnoughts:

Braunschweig class
Hessen
Preußen
Lothringen

Deutschland class
Hannover
Schleswig-Holstein
Schlesien

in reserve:

Braunschweig class
Braunschweig
Elsaß

Light cruiser:

Gazelle class
Thetis
Amazone
Medusa
Arcona

Bremen class
Hamburg
Berlin

In reserve:
Niobe
Nymphe

Destroyer:

Type 1911:
V 1
V 2
V 3
V 5
V 6
G 7
G 8
G 10
G 11
S 18
S 19
S 23

Torpedo boats:

Type 1906:
T 139
T 141
T 143
T 144*
T 146
T 148*
T 149
T 151
T 152*
T 153
T 154
T 155*
T 156
T 157
T 158
T 168
T 175*
T 185*
T 190
T 196

* in reserve

Minesweepers

M 28
M 50
M 60
M 61
M 66
M 72
M 75
M 81
M 82
M 84
M 85
M 89
M 96
M 98
M 102
M 104
M 107
M 108
M 109
M 110
M 111
M 113
M 115
M 117
M 122
M 126
M 129
M 130
M 132
M 133
M 134
M 135
M 136
M 138
M 145
M 146
M 157

Still exisisting:

Battleships
confiscated by the allies:

Nassau class
Westfalen
Posen

Helgoland class
Helgoland
Ostfriesland
Thüringen
Oldenburg

Bayern class
Baden

still in Germany, unfinished

Bayern class
Sachsen
Württemberg

Battlecruiser

unfinished in Germany

Mackensen class
Mackensen
Graf Spee
Fürst Bismarck

Light cruiser

Augsburg (Japan)
Stralsund (France)
Straßburg (Italy)
Pillau (Italy)
Graudenz (Italy)
Regensburg (France)
Frankfurt (USA)
Königsberg II (France)
Emden II (France)
Nürnberg II (Britain)

ships unfinished in Germany
Magdeburg II
Leipzig II
Rostock II
Frauenlob II
Ersatz Cöln
Ersatz Emden (latter both not launched yet)

Destroyer

Torpedobootzerstörer
B 97 (Italy)
B 98 (Britain)
V 100 (France)

Type 1916
S 113 (Italy)
V 116 (France)

(10 further under construction in Germany, to be scrapped)

Type 1916 mod:
V 125
V 126 (France)
V 127
V 128
V 130 (France)
S 132 (USA)
S 133 (France)
S 134 dito
S 135 dito
S 139 dito
V 140 in Germany
H 146 (France)
H 147 dito

(15 further under construction and to be scrapped)

Another notes:

1. Of these ships only the more modern are somewhat operational. The older ships are not. Unfortunately the Allies have or are going to confiscated these ships. So the ready ships the Reichsmarine can field are only few.

2. The Soviets had more ships and especially submarines ready and could (and would) threaten the seaways to East Prussia. They, too, have some dreadnoughts no one exactly knows their status.

3. Thus Germany will somehow have to react on this threat as now the sea lanes are the only open ways to supply East Prussia. That will mean the use of merchantmen as well. Ships the British want.
 
The German navy should not go communist as a whole, since a lot of the communists had been cleared out by then. After the Kapp-putsch the naval brigades had been dissolved and those men not actively wanted by the law were used as cadre for the Reichsmarine. That transfer is not complete in late 1920, but overall the navy was rather right-wing anti-republican than left-wing.
Anyway it is at best only marginally operational. The Soviet Baltic Fleet is not much better though: At the time of the WNT it had left a total of three battleships, two cruisers, about a dozen destroyers and several submarines. I don´t know how many ships have been sold for crap otl between 1920-22, but those who were, were probably not combat capable anyway. I know that of the battleships only Petropavlovsk was even operational in 1920. Thus the naval war will be only coastal mine and convoy warfare and feature but little in this tl.
 
Just to finish this scene:

The minister of finance leaned forward. “If those numbers for the militias are correct, that is certainly impressive. But how do you propose to arm them? Our finances won´t be able to finance that much, even provided we were allowed to produce or import weapons.”


“In the short term that is really no problem. There are literally still tons of Great War equipment around. As you know we have just started their destruction. The MIACC insists that we continue, but we slowed it down a lot and concentrate on the oldest and most worn stuff first. In the meantime we have more arms than we can possibly use.


In the long term we have to see though that a lot of it is worn from the war, some is substandard due to the late war shortages. And of course it is easier to hide obsolete than modern stuff, which means we issue 88 instead of 98s to some of the militias. In the long run we will need to get an agreement about new equipment, especially artillery. I estimate in case of war our stocks last 6 month, less if we can´t even replace all the ammunition.”


He directly looked at Fehrenbach and Simons. Both nodded, but they also shrugged. They would try, did try to get the Western Powers to agree to that. But they needed time. Seeckt would have to buy that time.

 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
The German navy should not go communist as a whole, since a lot of the communists had been cleared out by then. After the Kapp-putsch the naval brigades had been dissolved and those men not actively wanted by the law were used as cadre for the Reichsmarine. That transfer is not complete in late 1920, but overall the navy was rather right-wing anti-republican than left-wing.
Anyway it is at best only marginally operational. The Soviet Baltic Fleet is not much better though: At the time of the WNT it had left a total of three battleships, two cruisers, about a dozen destroyers and several submarines. I don´t know how many ships have been sold for crap otl between 1920-22, but those who were, were probably not combat capable anyway. I know that of the battleships only Petropavlovsk was even operational in 1920. Thus the naval war will be only coastal mine and convoy warfare and feature but little in this tl.

The status of the Soviet BBs:

Sevastopol: Laid up, lack of crew members
Gangut: Dito
Petrpawlowsk: Under repair after being sunk by British MBT in shellow waters and raised.
Poltawa: Damaged by fire, CTL, used for spare parts.

Although the battleships are not battle ready (yet) they could become so. It would be interesting to see the British reaction, if the Soviets want to reintroduce both or all three ships. One could be manned and put into action IMO.
 
The status of the Soviet BBs:

Sevastopol: Laid up, lack of crew members
Gangut: Dito
Petrpawlowsk: Under repair after being sunk by British MBT in shellow waters and raised.
Poltawa: Damaged by fire, CTL, used for spare parts.

Although the battleships are not battle ready (yet) they could become so. It would be interesting to see the British reaction, if the Soviets want to reintroduce both or all three ships. One could be manned and put into action IMO.
Thanks, somehow I did miss that Petropawlowsk was out of action in 1920 as well. Perhaps because she was the only one of her class actually to do something during the RCW and because she had the shortest interruption in her service.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
I agree, that the war at sea will have no dominant role in the war. However, Germany will need the possibility to maintain naval dominance in the German waters, not only for coastal defence, but also for keeping the sea lanes to Sweden and especially East Prussia open. At this moment this isn't clear.

Of the ships Germany was going to keep none could be described with the predicates new or capable. The torpedo boats were in no way capable to fight Soviet Novik class destroyers and the light cruisers were too outdated as well. And the predreadnoughts would not have had any chance against the Soviet dreadnoughts. Of course, only if these ships were battle ready, but indeed not much of them are. Of the Capital ships even none and only two old cruisers, Medusa and Hamburg. That means the Germans can't afford to give up any more ships. They can't give up the light cruisers Kolberg and Stettin and 11 destroyers, which are to be given to the Entente. Furthermore they can't afford to scrap the ships being built, at least not all of them.

This means huge problems with the other powers, especially the Brits. However, noone really knows the state of the Soviet fleet. For example one doesn't know the damages on two of the dreadnoughts and how fast they can be repaired. That one of them is a CTL no one really knows for sure. One can only assume it, but it is not sure though. Here any offensive action of the Soviets would mean much to support the German position as well, especially as the Soviets can field more and better ships.
 
Okay Tyr Anazasi. You have persuaded me, that a naval strand is perhaps necessary. Both sides have close to no ships operational at the time, but which ones can they get active in the near future? I suppose the Germans can start a bit earlier and even be a bit faster since they have the industrial base and have some manpower available, while the Russians still have a lot of sailors used as infantry on various fronts. What is about the Polish navy? I think they got the German torpedo boats and the Finnish Gunboats only in 1921, but I may be mistaken.

About the tl, sorry for the delay, but I was not able to write much the last week. On top of that this scene did not play out as I intended, but I also was unwilling to skip it completely. I am still not satisfied, but want to get on with the tl. So here it is.

September 5th, Halle (Saale)
Aaron stretched his legs and closed his eyes, enjoying the autumn sun on his face. Luckily the sun shined upon banks in front of his sister´s school this time of the day. It was not all that warm any more, but in the sun still pleasant.


The last days he had felt that the atmosphere in the city was tense. His father had mentioned that a lot of the workers were restless. Less in his own firm, but even there the news of the Soviet advance seemed to have electrified a number of people. Communist agitators were heard speaking on the streets or in the pubs more often than ever The civil authorities had noticed it as well. Policemen were seen mostly in groups today, but they also acted aggressively when feeling provoked.


The bell indicating that school was out caused him to open his eyes. Just a few minutes later his sister was the first one out of the building.


“Here I am. let´s go to the Zoo.”


He laughed out loud.


“Not so fast! Your mother made me promise, we would get a decent lunch first.”


His sister pouted about that, or at least faked it, but she followed without protest.


An hour later she had found back her good humour. She pulled Aaron from one compound to the next, pointed out her favourite animals and prattled happily what she knew about them. When they were heading home it already became dark and Aaron was almost as tired as she was. She had fallen asleep in the tram and he shouldered her when they reached their destination. Truth to be told, she became a bit heavy for that.


Thus he was relieved to put her down on the porch when he reached for the bell. The sound of marching feet caused him to turn around. A column of armed men turned into the street. Their uniforms were somewhat worn army uniforms, but on the left arm they wore brassards reading Polizei.

Aaron gulped. The government obviously was aware of the growing unrest. Now they had raised the stake. If only that did not provoke the communists into action. Better to plan for the worst. He still had his old service pistol and his father had once had a hunting rifle. He would have to ask him whether it was still around and service both guns.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
As for the naval situation the Soviets could IMO field more ships. Additionally to the two dreadnaughts they could field also two predreadnoughts, 4 armoured and a protected cruiser. These ships could be made ready in short time, shorter time than the Germans had to either complete the ships being built or to rearm the predreadnoughts. Both would last about a year at best, perhaps slightly less with the older predreadnoughts.
 
September 6th 1920, Śrem
With his left Andrysowicz tugged at his chin, absent-mindedly noticing that the stubble almost had become a real beard, if a somewhat unkempt one. Not much time to shave for almost two weeks now. Not much time for anything really. They had successfully escaped from Warsaw. Even in fairly good order. A quick foray by Red cavalry had cut them off from the battalion though. With more luck than ability he had managed to disengage the company and in the doing taken in other dispersed soldiers and units. By now his command was a mixed combat team in almost battalion strength. But now his luck had run out.


Finally he tore his eyes away from the map and looked at his company commander. He had given Skłodowski an infantry company made up from individual soldiers they had run across – under most circumstances he would have called them deserters – and various rear echelon units. Somewhat derisively Skłodowski called them his “fighting cooks” but he would get them into shape. The other company commanders he had not known a week ago, but now they were looking at him with trusting eyes and expected another miracle.


Nowak, the commander of his third infantry company, a slightly overweight captain whose cheer even under the strain of the last days had not disappeared. Wiśniewski a bookish looking lieutenant constantly cleaning his glasses with his mud-stained sleeve which only made it worse. Somehow he had managed to extract an entire battery of 75s from Warsaw. And finally Dzieduszycki, the commander of a cavalry squadron, his aristocratic arrogance recognizable even now, though his uniform was as muddy and worn as everyone else´s. He nodded at the cavalryman as he started speaking.


“Our scouts have discovered a major cavalry force to our north. They move like a screening force, probably for an attack on Poznań. The infantry pursuing us has fallen a bit behind, but should be here in about two hours. Last report places them here.” He accompanied his explanations with his finger on the map. “We could probably shake them of if we cross the Warta and drop the bridge behind us.”
 
All the eyes in the room went to the windows. Outside a steady flow of people, some with horse drawn carts, others drawing them themselves or pushing simple wheelbarrows moved down the street towards the other bank and the safety, they all hoped to find in the west.


It was Skłodowski who voiced their thoughts. “People around here started much too late to flee. First they felt safe because they were so far to the west, then they didn´t think they needed to go, because the war seemed over.


Nowak nodded and agreed: “I bet they only started packing after news of Lwów reached them. And that flow will only stop if the Russians are within reach and it becomes safer to hide.”


Skłodowski grimaced. “No way we can block the bridge. They will storm it, once they recognize we want to blow it up.”


“And I am not prepared to kill our people to secure our escape. We will hold the town till sundown and disengage under the cover of darkness. Skłodowski, you prepare the bridge and act as reserve. Nowak your men dig in in the north...”
 
Originally I wanted to do this scene in one or two posts early last week, but something always interferred with writing. I posted the first two parts but always felt they were ridiculously insignificant bits and waited for the rest to post at once.



“They are digging in. Seems like the cowards finally are willing to face us.”
Komvzvoda Andreijew did not react and continued to study the Polish positions. In his opinion comrade Fedorov was an idiot. And an overeager one at that. He had no business doing reconnaissance, even more as he was not capable of it. But because his mother had raised no fool Andreijew did not show his contempt for the commissar. He hadn´t survived six years of fighting to get shot by some idiot now as disciplinary action.


And Fedorov was certainly one. First for thinking the Polish were cowards. In this situation they had no choice but retreating. It was remarkable enough that they had not simply disintegrated. And second for his glee. The Polish would not hold this position forever, even if they had decided it was necessary for the moment.


Andreijew crouched back from his observation post and gestured the commissar to follow him. At least he finally had learned not to rise until he was out of sight.


“Lets get back to the regiment and report this.”
And since the Kompolka was not an idiot, he probably would understand that their only hope in nailing down the Poles was to get here some time before nightfall. By night the bastards would only slip away again.




Skłodowski huffed and stretched his back. The table was solid and would hopefully bare the Russians from using the back door to force this building. He took a step outside and inspected what he could see of his own company´s position. They had known there would be no time to prepare a line of trenches. Instead the Polish forces were digging foxholes to augment strong points in suitable houses along the towns outskirts. Those would not stand up to a lot of shelling, but the Red Army by now should be almost as bad supplied as them.


An MG team passed him by and he made a step back. The entire force by now had only a meagre six heavy MGs and a pitiful amount of ammunition even for those. Thus they were allowed to fire only in the last moment. He looked again at the team. With experienced ease they had set up their weapon and now loaded the first belt. A series of booms interrupted his thoughts.


“Incoming!” he shouted and ducked back into the door. Aus dem Augenwinkel he saw the MG team ducking deeper in their foxhole, just as his ears registered the first impacts. If he was not mistaking the Russians were concentrating their fire on a point to his left. So far it also were only a small number of ligher guns, five or six 76,2s perhaps.


Quickly he crossed the house and went to a window at the northern corner. Already Russian soldiers were advancing upon the shelled area. Now the artillery fire lifted and rifle fire greeted the advancing men. A number of the Bolshevists went down, but only a few of those seemed to be hit. The others had taken cover and fired as their comrades advanced.


An explosion, much closer than the initial one, made him aware that the shelling had not stopped, but only shifted. He crossed the room to a window facing outward and shouted.


“Seems like they will be coming for us now. Get ready.”


Probably an unnecessary order, but he felt better for it. The shelling was light enough that he risked to continue watching the front. Obviously he was not the only one. From the house south of him a shot went home just when he found his first target.


Seconds later the shelling shifted again and the rest of his company opened fire. Again he saw men going down, both searching for cover and hit ones. And this time they were close enough for him to hear the cries of the wounded. But the fire did not stop their advance.


Ignoring their losses they pressed on and now his single MG opened up as well. It had to spread its fire pretty wide, its short bursts altering between the left and right flank. More Russians were killed but they kept coming.


Andreijew cursed when a shot felled the man next to him Twice they had tried to get into the town now. The second time they had even reached the first buildings, but been thrown back in close quarter fighting. That would not happen again. With his left he waved his men forward as he rose.


“At them, boys!”


Both hands back at the rifle he fired a round through the nearest window and ran straight for the house. Again one of his men was hit, but the others reached him and pressed themselves against the wall next to him. On his gesture one of them took out a grenade – one of the last few they had – and they all fixed bayonets.


The grenade went through a window and Andreijew rose directly after the explosion. He shot the one remaining survivor in the room and then climbed in. The men in the next room had heard the explosion and stormed in but a few shots by the next man hit the first one through the door.


The next one faced a prepared Andreijew and received a bayonet to the guts. The thrust gave two more Poles time to enter the room and he retreated but now the next of his comrades was through the window as well. Andreijew pushed a rifle aside before the man could shoot him. Again his bayonet found its target. Another Polish soldier came through the door. By now faced with four Russians he only fired into the room before getting away. One of his men cried, hit into the thigh. Another one went through the Pole still on Andreijews bayonet, the other two went wild.


Due to the hit the corpse had twisted and the bayonet had been caught in the rips. As the other men cleared the rest of the building he pushed it down, placed his feet on the dead man chest and pulled it free.


Shots shattered the door frame where just seconds before had been Skłodowskis head. One of the splinters hit him into the cheek, only millimetres from his eye and he leaned a bit further back. Damn, they were about to be surrounded.


“Covering fire for the MG!” he shouted at the men in the room with him. Then he brought his rifle to the cheek and turned back to the door.


“Kowalski, pull back to the next line.” The leader of the MG team heard him and Skłodowskis registered him waving acknowledgement while he poured out the magazine of his rifle.


Hurriedly the men lifted the heavy weapon including its tripod and hastened back. A Russian officer rose and urged his men forward to catch the MG while it was not firing, but Skłodowski shot him and the Polish rifle fire – now increasing as another group from the other side of the street joined in drove the Bolshevists back into cover.


On the next corner Kowalski set up the MG again and Skłodowski turned to his men. “Time to get moving. Fall back.”


Keeping low he stormed out of the door and turned left towards the town centre, his men close behind. One of them was killed, another one cried and stumbled, when hit, but kept running. Short bursts by the MG prevented pursuit and they safely passed the MG.


Skłodowski halted next to it while the men looked for cover further back. Kowalski stopped guiding the MG fire and turned to him.


“We are down to 300 rounds. Time to get out of here.”


Sklodowski looked up to the sky and nodded. “Get your gun across the river and prepare to cover us when we get there. We only need about another 30 minutes before it is dark enough to disengage.” Then he turned around and looked for one of the other men. “Runner! Message to the Porucznik: We try to delay the enemy, but have to fall back steadily. Dispatched the MG. Estimate to be at the river in half an hour.”




Night fell over Śrem. Across the river burning buildings illuminate the night. The tired Polish soldiers had not the energy to look back. A hard night march was before them. Andrysowicz watched them pass by while he looked back one more time.


They had held the Russians long enough. The refugees had been able to gain some distance on them. With the bridge destroyed an immediate pursuit for his men was prevented as well. And they would need it. They had little ammo, only two machine guns left and many of the men were walking wounded. They were a spent force. At least the German border was now within a hundred kilometres. On this distance they should be able to outrun any pursuers.
 

The Sandman

Banned
I'd think that with Poland gone, the Baltic states and Finland would be on the menu before Germany. The logistics would be slightly less nightmarish, and it would help secure the flanks.

Although East Prussia is probably toast.
 
I'd think that with Poland gone, the Baltic states and Finland would be on the menu before Germany. The logistics would be slightly less nightmarish, and it would help secure the flanks.

Although East Prussia is probably toast.

Lenin's strategy was that revolutionizing Germany was the key to ensuring the success of the world revolution. Securing some backwaters that fell under White rule was secondary to spreading the revolution to one of the most industrialized nations of the world. Although he had hoped that the Germans would liberate themselves, if there had been a chance that a combination of internal unrest and an invasion would have brought down the German bourgeoisie, I'm sure he'd have seized it.
 

The Sandman

Banned
Lenin's strategy was that revolutionizing Germany was the key to ensuring the success of the world revolution. Securing some backwaters that fell under White rule was secondary to spreading the revolution to one of the most industrialized nations of the world. Although he had hoped that the Germans would liberate themselves, if there had been a chance that a combination of internal unrest and an invasion would have brought down the German bourgeoisie, I'm sure he'd have seized it.

The problem is that they can't get a significant force into Germany until their logistics have had time to catch up. While they're waiting for that, they might as well put some of their troops to use elsewhere.
 
Whatever you do, please don't have a pig bay style invasion of Polish-Americans taking place in this timeline. (I think that's what Turtledove would do ;-) )
 
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