1763: all french-canadiens are forced to go to Louisiana.

[John I of Brazil]

This is a scenario I thought about recently.


In 1763, after the Seven Years' war, a large portion of the french colony of New France was taken by the english, becoming the province of Quebec. Despite that, the francophone population remained there and later became a part of the diverse country we know as Canada.


However, what if, as a way to give more land to the Anglo-American colonialists in the 13 colonies, the english decided to expel the francophone population from Quebec? The former franco-canadiens are forced to migrate to Louisiana, which was still a french a spanish colony.


According with The Canadian encyclopedia, the total population of New France was approximately 70,000 people. Assuming at least 95% of them arrive to Louisiana (which is a very generous estimate, for this situation could result into something like the Trial of Tears, as many could die in the journey), how could this situation affect the development of English/British America (including Canada and the 13 colonies) and Louisiana? Could this result in a more populated, more french Louisiana, that wouldn't be easily overpopulated and annexed by future anglo-american states? What about english Quebec?

 

[Slime_blob]

What about Haiti/Saint Domingue?

 

[Lusitania]

Sorry but while it may be interesting question or idea but it is completely ignorant and pardon my French crazy idea. The British had complete control of New France. Why would 1) spend tons of money to transport 60,000+ people? 2) who was going there? No one the people in 13 colonies had tons of land and no need to migrate to cold north.

 

[da Racontor]

The didn't do it because ~70,000 was too many. They did expelled the Acadians not long before so it isn't that they wouldn't want to.

I can't check now, but I think there was something in the treaty keeping them from doing too.


Now if they still tried anyway, they would have a guerrilla war on their hands, and best hope that the started the war in spring because winter won't be pretty.

 

[John I of Brazil]

Sorry but while it may be interesting question or idea but it is completely ignorant and pardon my French crazy idea. The British had complete control of New France. Why would 1) spend tons of money to transport 60,000+ people? 2) who was going there? No one the people in 13 colonies had tons of land and no need to migrate to cold north.

It's ok. I thought about posting it on the ASB forum instead, as an ISOT scenario, but a part of me couldn't help but think if that was necessary.

The didn't do it because ~70,000 was too many. They did expelled the Acadians not long before so it isn't that they wouldn't want to.

I can't check now, but I think there was something in the treaty keeping them from doing too.


Now if they still tried anyway, they would have a guerrilla war on their hands, and best hope that the started the war in spring because winter won't be pretty.

So could it happen if the english authorities were less sensible? Such war could be an interesting scenario of itself. How much time do you think it would take? What about the casualties?

 

[Don Corleone]

Louisiana, which is still a french colony.

It was Spanish. France gave it to Spain as compensation for dragging them into the war.

Spain treated Louisiana as a buffer between the Anglosphere and New Spain (Mexico), which Spain valued more.

 

[da Racontor]

It's ok. I thought about posting it on the ASB forum instead, as an ISOT scenario, but a part of me couldn't help but think if that was necessary.

So could it happen if the english authorities were less sensible? Such war could be an interesting scenario of itself. How much time do you think it would take? What about the casualties?

Given how much it would cost, on top of the already crushingly expensive Seven Years' War. English authorities would have to be more than less sensible, they would have to be borderline suicidal.

As far as time, that would all depend on how planned out it is. Part of the reason the Acadian expulsion worked is because they kept it a secret from much of the population until the soldiers were already at their door. Not only does that trick not work twice, but someone is going to notice when Quebec, Montreal or Trois-Rivieres vanishes. Also, neither side would probably have sufficient supplies to weather winter, but at least the Canadiens would have the homefield advantage when gathering what sparse food there is. Stationing troops in Quebec doesn't do you a whole lot of good if you can't get food to them.

 

[John I of Brazil]

It was Spanish. France gave it to Spain as compensation for dragging them into the war.

Spain treated Louisiana as a buffer between the Anglosphere and New Spain (Mexico), which Spain valued more.

I see. France ceded the region to Spain in 1763 after losing to them during the Seven Years' War, just like Quebec would be months later. Thank you for showing me it. Anyway, I think it would still be interesting if they went to Spanish territory. I will correct the thread.

Given how much it would cost, on top of the already crushingly expensive Seven Years' War. English authorities would have to be more than less sensible, they would have to be borderline suicidal.

As far as time, that would all depend on how planned out it is. Part of the reason the Acadian expulsion worked is because they kept it a secret from much of the population until the soldiers were already at their door. Not only does that trick not work twice, but someone is going to notice when Quebec, Montreal or Trois-Rivieres vanishes. Also, neither side would probably have sufficient supplies to weather winter, but at least the Canadiens would have the homefield advantage when gathering what sparse food there is. Stationing troops in Quebec doesn't do you a whole lot of good if you can't get food to them.

Understandable. I almost feel bad for creating such a deadly scenario. This conflict could take years to resolve and severely weaken England, which is also an interesting consequence. How do you think this could affect the American Independence (specially because the colonials would probably get strongly involved in this war)?

 

[da Racontor]

I see. France ceded the region to Spain in 1763 after losing to them during the Seven Years' War, just like Quebec would be months later. Thank you for showing me it. Anyway, I think it would still be interesting if they went to Spanish territory. I will correct the thread.


Understandable. I almost feel bad for creating such a deadly scenario. This conflict could take years to resolve and severely weaken England, which is also an interesting consequence. How do you think this could affect the American Independence (specially because the colonials would probably get strongly involved in this war)?

Well this would mean no Quebec Acts which would take away a lot of resentment against the government.

But who's paying for all this? If the colonies didn't like the taxes in OTL they are certainly not going to like the ATL ones

 

[Don Corleone]

I see. France ceded the region to Spain in 1763 after losing to them during the Seven Years' War, just like Quebec would be months later. Thank you for showing me it. Anyway, I think it would still be interesting if they went to Spanish territory. I will correct the thread.


Understandable. I almost feel bad for creating such a deadly scenario. This conflict could take years to resolve and severely weaken England, which is also an interesting consequence. How do you think this could affect the American Independence (specially because the colonials would probably get strongly involved in this war)?

Spain was actually on France's side. It was more like "sorry we got you into this mess".

Spain would likely have welcomed the Quebecois, since they would have boosted Louisiana's productivity. They didn't do much to make Louisiana residents Spanish in OTL. (Bloody O'Reilly put down a revolt but the main change was Rue Bourbon became Calle Borbon.)

The Quebecois would see it as a less bad option due to being able to retain their French identity.

 

[funnyhat]

I see. France ceded the region to Spain in 1763 after losing to them during the Seven Years' War, just like Quebec would be months later. Thank you for showing me it. Anyway, I think it would still be interesting if they went to Spanish territory. I will correct the thread.


Understandable. I almost feel bad for creating such a deadly scenario. This conflict could take years to resolve and severely weaken England, which is also an interesting consequence. How do you think this could affect the American Independence (specially because the colonials would probably get strongly involved in this war)?

France and Spain did not fight, on the contrary they were allies. France convinced Spain to join the war against the British, but the war went poorly for the Spanish also. To compensate them for their losses, France gave them Louisiana.

Regarding Canada, IOTL Britain promised in the OTL peace treaty to protect the rights of the Canadiens. For them to be expelled would require very different circumstances. The British in 1763 OTL were happy with their gains and did not want a new war, which this action would likely create.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

What about it being part of Choiseul's plan? OTL he wanted to settle "yeoman farmers" on the English model in Northern Louisiana, recruiting settlers from everywhere from Alsace to Venice as well as former Acadiens for this idea. Only problem was that instead of sending them to Louisiana first, he decided to settle the malaria-ridden Îles de la Salute first. Most of the settlers died due to tropical diseases and what was left - IIRC - returned to France. Now, I suspect a number will die due to unpreparedness of a midwest winter (not sure how cold it gets in Venice in winter), but if something like hurrican season were to force Choiseul to go to Louisiane first...that could help a) keep him in office and b) inspire more Acadiens to take him up on the Louisiane idea. The British don't NEED to move 70 000 Quebeçois settlers. If the Canadiens see that hey, Choiseul kept his promise to the Acadiens, many might leave willingly if the British start cracking down on Catholics/Francophones.

Probably overly naïve, but there it is

 

[Tsochar]

What about it being part of Choiseul's plan? OTL he wanted to settle "yeoman farmers" on the English model in Northern Louisiana, recruiting settlers from everywhere from Alsace to Venice as well as former Acadiens for this idea. Only problem was that instead of sending them to Louisiana first, he decided to settle the malaria-ridden Îles de la Salute first. Most of the settlers died due to tropical diseases and what was left - IIRC - returned to France. Now, I suspect a number will die due to unpreparedness of a midwest winter (not sure how cold it gets in Venice in winter), but if something like hurrican season were to force Choiseul to go to Louisiane first...that could help a) keep him in office and b) inspire more Acadiens to take him up on the Louisiane idea. The British don't NEED to move 70 000 Quebeçois settlers. If the Canadiens see that hey, Choiseul kept his promise to the Acadiens, many might leave willingly if the British start cracking down on Catholics/Francophones.

Probably overly naïve, but there it is

Venice gets snow once or twice a year. Its average temperature is on par with Saint Louis, MO, and its average winter low temp is about the same as Memphis, TN.

 

[unprincipled peter]

On top of the logistic/financial nightmare for Britain:

Louisiana didn't have the infrastructure to receive that large an influx.

Most Acadiens did not go straight to Louisiana. Most were settled elsewhere in the British domains (where they could be minimized as a threat) or went to France, where they stayed a few years, then went to Louisiana.

That many French in Louisiana, with all the chaos of relocation, make the rebellion a lot larger and more likely to succeed.

But, if somehow it all does happen:

I think the ban on westward migration gets altered IF the French Louisiana rebellion threatens Illinois/Indiana. Britain will want English oriented population there to stop French encroachment. IF Illinois is not threatened, look for a ban similar to OTL. BNA migration can be funneled north.

There's still going to be BNA friction, but the Quebec Acts won't be an issue. Being forced to support idle soldiers won't be an issue. British soldiers will be concentrated in Canada forcing the expulsion. Taxation is going to remain an issue.

IF ARW kicks off reasonably as OTL, the Canadian sphere will be completely different. Remnants of the French population will join the revolution. Transplanted French Canadians will look to return somewhere in North America and join the fight looking to reclaim their homelands. At a minimum, they will retake Illinois/Indiana.

There may be no Battle of Saratoga to convince the French that rebel victory is possible. It may be replaced with a rebel victory in Canada. If the British prevail in Canada, French may not enter, meaning doom for the rebels. But, British mistreatment of former French citizens may cause French active involvement a lot sooner.

Britain populace will be sick of North America, and look to settle the ARW a lot sooner.

IF Louisiana has reverted through rebellion to France, or managed independence, Spain will continue to develop Texas as a border, unlike OTL. Spain will look to push a favorable border. If France refuses to support a favorable border, Spain will not be cooperative in coordinating in ARW. IF the rebels are having a hard time, as OTL, without Spanish support, they very well may lose.

IF Spain holds on to Louisiana, once things settle, the economy there will be positive. OTL, it was starting to take off when Spain returned it to France. Here, with a jumpstart in population, it happens earlier. Spain may see value in it, and look to keep it.

If the rebels prevail, Canada is a mystery. If the British manage to hold on there, the French will feel betrayed, and look to claim much of the Mississippi Valley. The French Spanish backed hordes will have taken Illinois/Indiana and also West Florida/Mississippi/Alabama. Spain will be in a position to hold on to these territories.