101 way to get rid of a Cuban dictator

Realpolitik

Banned
Suppose one of the myriad attempts on Castro's life succeeded. Which one was most likely? For that event, let's say it succeeded. What would happen after his death?

When I read about some of the attempts to mess with Castro.. an exploding cigar... the CIA had been watching too much ACME! :p
 

Emperor Julian

Well, according to the story, in January 1960 they succeeded in having Castro's lover try to poison him, but he caught her and gave her a gun, telling her that if she wanted to kill him, she had to actually physically do it. She wasn't able to, but if she was, then that would have been the end of him (and her). If she kills him then, that's pretty much the end of his career. Maybe Cuba will have to endure dictator Che or something. :eek:

According to the former head of his secret service, the closest the CIA got was trying to poison Castro's milkshake in 1963, which would have worked if the server/assassin had not been incompetent and broken the pill while trying to get it out of the freezer. That's after the Missile Crisis and Bay of Pigs, so relations with the US are already quite low.
 

Realpolitik

Banned
Emperor Julian said:
Well, according to the story, in January 1960 they succeeded in having Castro's lover try to poison him, but he caught her and gave her a gun, telling her that if she wanted to kill him, she had to actually physically do it. She wasn't able to, but if she was, then that would have been the end of him (and her). If she kills him then, that's pretty much the end of his career. Maybe Cuba will have to endure dictator Che or something. :eek:

According to the former head of his secret service, the closest the CIA got was trying to poison Castro's milkshake in 1963, which would have worked if the server/assassin had not been incompetent and broken the pill while trying to get it out of the freezer. That's after the Missile Crisis and Bay of Pigs, so relations with the US are already quite low.
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So would Che take over or would it be somebody like Raul? What would happen in Cuba?
 

Emperor Julian

Realpolitik said:
So would Che take over or would it be somebody like Raul? What would happen in Cuba?
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I don't know who would be more likely to take over, I don't know enough about Cuban history or politics. But I hope it would be someone like Raul, because Che had strange views, and was willing to start a nuclear war in 1962.
 

Realpolitik

Banned
Emperor Julian said:
I don't know who would be more likely to take over, I don't know enough about Cuban history or politics. But I hope it would be someone like Raul, because Che had strange views, and was willing to start a nuclear war in 1962.
Click to expand...

Amen to that. Che, like Mao, was a much better guerrilla fighter than administrator. And the US is NEVER going to tolerate him leading Cuba.

Without Fidel around, we might see a somewhat better relationship eventually. Raul doesn't strike me as the "3rd world wild adventures" type.

I guess it really depends on WHEN Fidel is killed. The later it is, the more likely Raul takes over and the Party survives. The earlier it is, the more likely the state falls apart.
 
Jasen777

Jasen777

Donor
Could be a good t.v. show. Follow hardworking Fidel running a country as every episode the CIA tries a zany scheme to assassinate him!
 

Realpolitik

Banned
This is all very nice, but I would like to see if things could get better between Cuba and the US in some alternate history. Nailing Fidel seems to be one possible way. Any comments?

It depends also on the leadership in Washington and the time period. Certain Presidents are not going to normalize relations with Cuba no matter what, unless the Party falls from power-which might be possible early on, if Che is killed or screws thing up upon assuming power. Later on, if Fidel goes, Raul will take power, and the party structure will have had time to crystallize-they will survive.

A run down of the various Presidents and their attitudes: Kennedy, Nixon, and Reagan all REALLY didn't like the Communist Party of Cuba, and Fidel Castro and Company hate Kennedy with all their hearts. I need not explain why. JFK wouldn't do it even if he wanted to in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis and pre-Vietnam. Politically impossible. Castro's personal hatred for Nixon was near pathological levels(he didn't like how Nixon was the one American he couldn't charm, convince, or fool in person when he went to the States in 1959), and vice versa-it was the international equivalent of Bobby and Lyndon, both parties could not think rationally about each other. So Nixon in Havana a la Beijing/Moscow/Cairo/Damascus is ASB. Reagan's Central American/Angolan policy against Castro's attempts to get involved and support among the Cubans in Florida is all need to say in regard to him. So with these three, it's the Party goes, or no improvement in relations.

LBJ would be unlikely with a surviving Castro due to the time period as well as well as his involvement in the Kennedy administration, even though Fidel didn't hate him and was open to negotiating with him, unlike Kennedy. Ford can't do anything substantial on foreign policy, and needs to watch Florida during the GOP meltdown. Carter was open to warming relations-by the time he is in power, if Fidel was to up and die, Raul would take over smoothly, and the Angolan adventure might not happen. Carter also has Nicaragua to his "credit", giving him credence in Castro's eyes. It will have to take place in 1977-1978 if it happens, before Afghanistan and Iran force Carter to take a harder line in foreign policy. There is also Bush Sr. and Clinton-with no Fidel, they might be willing to do it. Bush Sr. has a powerful whip hand with Cuba's economic collapse in the early 90s, but he has to worry about his domestic political situation-he needs Florida against Clinton, and he knows it. If he wins a second term, he might be open to trying. The latter did normalize with Vietnam, but after 1996 when Cuba shoots down American planes, it's unlikely. He also needs to watch the votes and the right wing...

So, Carter and Bush Sr. I think have the best shots at doing it with a surviving Fidel Castro. Get rid of him, and it depends on what happens afterwards.
 
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