First step is if he can keep his dick in his pants.
Also, would Obama not running help?
Almost impossible without a very different Democratic race.
Edwards had almost no appeal among minority voters. It's part of why he did so badly in both Nevada and South Carolina despite initially being expected to perform very well in both states. You can't win a Democratic primary with only white rural voters, and that's the only real base that Edwards had.
I meant with the affair still in place, but beyond that I do imagine Obama not running would help him a lot.
Well, even without the affair and with Obama not running, he would still be the underdog against Clinton. He would pick up much, though by no means all, of Obama's OTL white support, but very little of his African American support (the latter was overwhelmingly a pro-Obama, not anti-Clinton, vote).
But *with* the affair still in place, he has no chance--whether he gets 40, 50 or 60 percent of the primary vote doesn't matter because the affair will definitely be out by the time of the convention. It was out by then in OTL, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Edwards_extramarital_affair and the mainstream media will probably pursue it much earlier than they did in OTL if it appears Edwards has a good chance of getting the presidential nomination.
Overcome these 4 obstacles and he wins ... but then again, he'd have to be a different "John Edwards".
In the event that Obama does not run, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, and she may or may not win the election. Part of the reason Obama had such support within the party was the drive to keep the Clinton line blocked from eight more years in the Oval Office, an act of desperation for which Democratic leaders are now paying the price.
Clinton/Edwards vs. McCain/Palin?
If nominated, Hillary Clinton will win
Even if nominated, he loses to the Republican.
Pretty hard. I don't know much about the man, but what I do know does not point to a candidate who can get enough support. As others have mentioned, he just doesn't appeal outside of a section of the upper-middle, largely white, class.
How likely would it be for him to win Iowa over Hillary if Obama isn't in the race?
How likely would it be for him to win Iowa over Hillary if Obama isn't in the race?
Against a political milquetoast like McCain? Most likely.