Thande
Donor
Very good point!
(For those who don't know what he's on about, Yarwood was a talented impressionist who was successful in the 1970s by imitating the PMs and other politicians, but obviously couldn't do Mrs Thatcher).
That Wacky Redhead
- Thread starter Brainbin
- Start date
Very good point!
(For those who don't know what he's on about, Yarwood was a talented impressionist who was successful in the 1970s by imitating the PMs and other politicians, but obviously couldn't do Mrs Thatcher).
Falkenburg
Monthly Donor
In ref ITV, a question: is their F1 coverage at all affected? I, for one, would hate to lose Murray Walker's tenure. (I know, the Murrayisms are notorious, but I still think he's the best commentator ever.)
Murray worked for the BBC, on Grand Prix.
The Beeb had F1 until the 1990s when it switched to ITV. It then returned to the BBC around 2009 (?)
Falkenburg
I don't recall it being BBC, tho it may well have been & I didn't realize it. In whatever case, I found Murray set the standard. (I recall liking Jonathan Palmer, too.) He (they) helped turn me off U.S. NASCAR coverage (3 guys in the booth? Really?), & convinced me CBC wasn't even in the same game & should stick to hockey.
I distinctly recall one Canadian GP where the lead commentator tried to do a half-time show.
And another who bungled a Japanese driver's name 3 different ways in less than 5 minutes. (It made me wish I ran the network. I'd have fired them live on the air.)
He did try to do Thatcher once, but after that he left it to Janet Brown.
As for his popularity, his 1977 Christmas Show was the tenth most watched broadcast in the UK in the whole of the seventies (surprisingly edging Morcombe and Wise into eleventh place) . Note that the number one broadcast on that list has already been butterflied away ITTL.
Cheers,
Nigel.
Let's take a shot at this. I'll start by assuming that the 1970 election is held a little earlier and although there is a swing to the Conservatives, Labour manage to hold on to a small majority.
Following a few by-election defeats, this majority is whittled away and Wilson goes to the country again in 1973. Due to the perception that the Unions are having too much influence on Government and the desire for change, this time the Conservatives win with a comfortable majority. I'd say that if the 1970 election was close, the Tories decided to keep Heath as leader, so he becomes PM.
This is, of course, just before the Oil Shock and most of Heath's term as PM is spent dealing with that. The austerity measures are not popular, although not as bad as IOTL as the Markets are willing to trust a Conservative Government more than a Labour one. There will be no need for Britain to go to the IMF. Still, the Heath government is not popular and he holds on for the full five years, going to the polls in 1978.
Labour manage to get in with a small majority. I'll tip Dennis Healy as PM - IOTL Wilson stood down as party leader at a time when Healy was unpopular with the left of the party due to his proposals for wage control. This doesn't happen ITTL and so Healy stands a chance.
I'd say that this Labour government could last for four years and that the Conservatives get into power again in 1982. I'll assume that Keith Joseph doesn't make his Edgbaston speech and so succeeds in becoming Conservative party leader after Heath stands down.
So no Thatcher as PM (but I'm not sure that people would like it).
Cheers,
Nigel.
NCW8
It might depend on how things work out. For instance if Healy becomes PM under such conditions of economic problems he might be able to force through basic reforms on union power which gets a more balanced economy. Hence no swing to the other extreme.
Or after failing with this Joseph wins and being somewhat less subtle than Thatcher alienates so many people that he and the Tories are kicked out after a single term. With a general improvement in the world ecomomy and North sea oil entering larger scale production and not being wasted on unemployment payments and tax cuts for the rich Britain has a more rounded economy and a more successful one. The sense of self-belief isn't totally destroyed, and an acceptance that government can have a role other than cementing the domination of the ultra-rich.
Another possible factor. Healy was by most accounts deeply hostile to defence spending. It could be then that he cuts enough earlier to trigger a Falkland type conflict, plus possibly fails to pay attention like the Tories did OTL. [There are reports the junta was considering an attack about 1978 but the government of the time noticed signs of a build-up and sent a few signs of their own and the junta backed down]. In this case the conflict could come during a Labour government a few years earlier. Britain is still likely to win as it has more power at the time, despite possibly greater cuts, and no Falklands boost for the Tories. [They would still make capital by pointing out Labour neglected the defences but wouldn't get an play if/when Joseph then gets in and fouls things up as OTL in the 80's].
Anyway, turning into a bit of a rant again
but there are so many variables that a Thatcher-type reaction, under her or someone else is by no means inevitable. Quite possible to have a more rational response to excessive union power leading to a much stronger economy and society than OTL. Or failing that a one term excess that alienates enough of the people that the damage done is a lot more limited.Steve
Sure - there's plenty of possibilities. There's also the influence of the US to consider. For example, if a republican gets elected in 1976 and tries to implement Monetarism, the problems with it could be discovered before anyone tries it in the UK.
That's an interesting one. There's a possible popular culture spin-off there as well. The defence cuts might result in HMS Ark Royal being decommissioned a few years earlier than OTL, which would butterfly away the TV Series Sailor.
Cheers,
Nigel.
Nigel
Damned, good point. I had forgotten about that. Hopefully they won't go that far that fast, both for the sake of the Falkands and Britain and also because that was a damned good programme. Suspect they will keep the Ark in service until at least one of the 'flat-deck cruisers' are in service but signing drastic cut-backs could be the trigger for an invasion and a government deep in conflict with assorted vested interests might miss the warning signs.
Steve
You're right, it is a bit too fast. How about this:
The government brings forward the decommissioning of the Ark Royal to 1977, after the launch of HMS Invincible. On this basis the government saves money by canceling the refit that was due to take place in 1975. Without the refit, the MOD is wary about letting a TV crew spend a lot of time on board, so the series doesn't get made.
There's going to be a period at the end of the seventies when Britain might not look able to defend the Falklands and as you say, that could trigger an invasion.
Cheers,
Nigel
It might depend on how things work out. For instance if Healy becomes PM under such conditions of economic problems he might be able to force through basic reforms on union power which gets a more balanced economy. Hence no swing to the other extreme.
Or after failing with this Joseph wins and being somewhat less subtle than Thatcher alienates so many people that he and the Tories are kicked out after a single term. With a general improvement in the world ecomomy and North sea oil entering larger scale production and not being wasted on unemployment payments and tax cuts for the rich Britain has a more rounded economy and a more successful one. The sense of self-belief isn't totally destroyed, and an acceptance that government can have a role other than cementing the domination of the ultra-rich.
Another possible factor. Healy was by most accounts deeply hostile to defence spending. It could be then that he cuts enough earlier to trigger a Falkland type conflict, plus possibly fails to pay attention like the Tories did OTL. [There are reports the junta was considering an attack about 1978 but the government of the time noticed signs of a build-up and sent a few signs of their own and the junta backed down]. In this case the conflict could come during a Labour government a few years earlier. Britain is still likely to win as it has more power at the time, despite possibly greater cuts, and no Falklands boost for the Tories. [They would still make capital by pointing out Labour neglected the defences but wouldn't get an play if/when Joseph then gets in and fouls things up as OTL in the 80's].
Anyway, turning into a bit of a rant again
Not to get into a debate about British politics - I'm slightly too young to remember the beginning of the Thatcher era, am a Canadian to boot, and politics isn't the focus of the TL. However ...
Things could very easily go worse for Labour ITTL. If Michael Foot stays as leader longer; if Kinnock doesn't take on the Militant Tendency, etc.
I can't really see a return to Labour at this point; if the SDP forms ITTL, they may very well get in, or if the Liberals get their act together, a Tory-Liberal coalition ...
But, as Brainbin keeps reminding us, this is not a political TL.
TB-EI
Thande
Donor
I disagree. Thatcher's rise to leadership of the Conservative Party is one of those things that stems from a very unlikely combination of circumstances and would have seemed almost ASB only a couple of years before it happened. The 'dry' challenger to Heath should have been Sir Keith Joseph, but his career self-destructed when he made a racist gaffe. Nobody else was willing to stand up to Heath except Thatcher. When she did challenge him, nobody expected her to actually win, they just wanted her to force a leadership election which would let other people jump in--people like Willie Whitelaw who were too loyal to Heath to openly challenge him, but were willing to replace him once he resigned. It was so startlingly controversial not just to have a female party leader but such an extreme 'dry' one: even if Thatcher did still become leader, I don't think she'd have had any chance at winning an election if the political situation in the dying days of the Callaghan ministry hadn't been so catastrophic that people were willing to vote in the Conservatives no matter who led them.
Suffice to say I don't think the tone of this TL really fits a Thatcher premiership. If a Tory replaces the Wilson government in 1973 or so as suggested above, I think Heath would have gone after the failure of 1970 and the party would have rallied around a comfortable wet like Whitelaw out of fear of Enoch Powell (see "If Gordon Banks Had Played"); Thatcher would be a nonentity at this point because she wouldn't even have held a cabinet post without the 1970 Tory victory.
Falkenburg
Monthly Donor
Wandering a fair bit off topic here lads.
Nevetheless I do feel compelled to point out Whitelaw might not have been as 'Wet' in the top job as he appeared in comparison to the so-dry-she's-dessicated Thatcher.
This is the man behind the "Short, Sharp, Shock" and (IMO) racist implementation of the sus laws, after all.
Off-topic, as I say. Sorry Brainbin.
Quick! Give us an Update to shut us up.
Falkenburg
Nevetheless I do feel compelled to point out Whitelaw might not have been as 'Wet' in the top job as he appeared in comparison to the so-dry-she's-dessicated Thatcher.
This is the man behind the "Short, Sharp, Shock" and (IMO) racist implementation of the sus laws, after all.
Off-topic, as I say. Sorry Brainbin.
Quick! Give us an Update to shut us up.
Falkenburg
Wow guys. Since it's been decided Thatcher's career is over and done, perhaps Brainbin should find her an alternate career? Since an actor can be president, maybe an ex-pol could play Sarah Jane Smith? Be warned this is the least trolling of the ideas I've been suggesting to Brainbin in case people kept up with the Thatcher-death-plotting.
Also, just a note and rather off-topic, but...1000 posts!
Also, just a note and rather off-topic, but...1000 posts!
We would, but it seems to have gone off the web with no easily findable mirrors.
Glen
Moderator
I admit that this is not a part of history that I have studied, so will have to bow to your knowledge in the absence of any other information.
Thande
Donor
She could go back into chemistry and work on more varieties of ice cream (no, really, that's what she did before going into politics). Somehow that seems very appropriate for the general sunny tone of this TL, picture Arthur Scargill toasting Mrs Thatcher as he bites the flake off his 99
Is it a given this even happens? I recognize a policy change away from Israel, let alone so soon after POD, is improbable; even a small change might have material impact, perhaps enough to mitigate, or even butterfly, this.NCW8 said:
I find myself liking this scenario quite a lot.stevep said:
(Rant forgiven, BTW.)Presuming this doesn't mean scrapped, it might still be possible to use her as a studio/setting, no? Under a fictitious name...NCW8 said:
I think that Brainbin has already refered to the Oil Shock happening.
IOTL the Ark Royal was scrapped after being decommissioned. If it were decommissioned early then it might have been mothballed for a couple of years, but I think that it's a bit too big to keep around for the long term.
The beauty of the series Sailor was that it was a documentary showing how the ship operated in real-life. It wasn't a staged drama (or at least no more than such documentaries normally are).
The BBC actually did try using a ship (a North Sea Ferry) as a studio setting for a soap opera called Triangle. It wasn't a success.
Cheers,
Nigel.