Realistic First Contact Scenarios

[John Fredrick Parker]

Trade is unlikely. To make interstellar trade worthwhile, you'd need to find a substance that can't be produced at home and is expensive and low-bulk enough to justify shipping it rather than finding a way to duplicate it. As of now, we know of no substance that exists in nearby star systems that doesn't exist in Sol system. This is not to say that we will never find one, but we currently know of no physical process that would make one system or another rich or poor in any given material.

The only trade I can see is Intellectual Trade, the sale of art and intellectual property by electromagnetic signals.

Actually, due to comparative advantage, the human race doesn't necessarily need to be better at or have more of something than the aliens to trade with them, and for us to dramatically accumulate (some of) their technology. As Coase says, if nothing stops people from trading, nothing will stop them from trading...

 

[Polish Eagle]

Trade is possible provided it is profitable; that doesn't mean that we will only ship things in if we can't find any of it in our solar system. Provided a certain good, product or service is more expensive to mine/gather/extract/manufacture/operate in our solar system than it would be to import or outsource it then trade is definitely possible and profitable.

Yes, but the cost of shipping it over interstellar distances, barring a revolution in physics, makes mining anything in another star system and shipping it back to Sol impractical.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Yes, but the cost of shipping it over interstellar distances, barring a revolution in physics, makes mining anything in another star system and shipping it back to Sol impractical.

Ah yes, that would make for an effective trade barrier...

 

[King Thomas]

All we have to base first contact on is what happened on Earth when those of higher tech met those of lower tech. And it was a pile of crap for those of lower tech;they were either exterminated or badly damaged/robbed of anything of value. If the aliens can reach us they are of much higher tech and will probebly kill or enslave us.

 

[B_Munro]

All we have to base first contact on is what happened on Earth when those of higher tech met those of lower tech. And it was a pile of crap for those of lower tech;they were either exterminated or badly damaged/robbed of anything of value. If the aliens can reach us they are of much higher tech and will probebly kill or enslave us.

But why bother? A Conquistador could gain vast riches travelling to the new world to rob and plunder, but what would someone with a 10,000 AD standard of living (take $50,000/year and increase by 1% for 8,000 years ) find among our crude huts other than a gross cut in living standards? And the current market robo-slave is stronger, longer-lasting and far less stinky than we are.

Aliens may do bad things to us, but they won't do them for the sort of reasons we did pre-1900: OTL analogies are dubious at best.

Bruce

 

[B_Munro]

Ah yes, that would make for an effective trade barrier...

I'd imagine we'd pay an interstellar premium for alien high-tech goods and services, but it's hard to say what we could give them in exchange: if we're lucky, human art or music might find alien buyers (and the interstellar void would probably serve as a fairly effective barrier to illegal downloading )

Heh, that reminds me of a book by Greg Costikyan...

http://www.infinityplus.co.uk/nonfiction/firstcontract.htm

Bruce

 

[Keenir]

But why bother? A Conquistador could gain vast riches travelling to the new world to rob and plunder, but what would someone with a 10,000 AD standard of living (take $50,000/year and increase by 1% for 8,000 years ) find among our crude huts other than a gross cut in living standards?

so we'd be dealing with hippies, neo-primitivists, and survivalists?

dear lord, the interstellar Burt Gummers.

And the current market robo-slave is stronger, longer-lasting and far less stinky than we are.

why would they have robo-slaves? Star Wars is not the only way to space.

 

[EWHM]

Art, music, and research fees from alien graduate students working on xenosociology dissertations is about all a lower tech civilization would likely have to offer in trade.

 

[B_Munro]

why would they have robo-slaves? Star Wars is not the only way to space.

Well of course not, but I meant that if we assume they're into slaves, they probably have better options than us shaved apes.

Bruce

 

[B_Munro]

so we'd be dealing with hippies, neo-primitivists, and survivalists?

dear lord, the interstellar Burt Gummers.
.

Earth is invaded by a bunch of space-hippies looking to learn from our primitive, spiritual ways and simple lifestyles while crashing on our living room couches...Say. I think you've come up with a twist on the alien invasion theme I haven't seen before.

Bruce

 

[Keenir]

Earth is invaded by a bunch of space-hippies looking to learn from our primitive, spiritual ways and simple lifestyles while crashing on our living room couches..

*hippy-esque voice* "and who can put a price on how much it costs to reach these cosmic teachers of simplicity?"

.Say. I think you've come up with a twist on the alien invasion theme I haven't seen before.

thank you.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Just wanted to reiterate -- due to comparative advantage, the human race doesn't necessarily need to be better at or have more of something than the aliens to trade with them, and for us to dramatically accumulate (some of) their technology.

If we do pretty much anything even somewhat well (by their standards) whether it's in very low tech work, agriculture, or what have you, the aliens can make use of our efforts in exchange for technological exchange that, while extremely cheap for them, can be hugely beneficial* for us...

*or what we assume to be beneficial -- it's actually a little more complicated

 

[Shimbo]

Just wanted to reiterate -- due to comparative advantage, the human race doesn't necessarily need to be better at or have more of something than the aliens to trade with them, and for us to dramatically accumulate (some of) their technology.

If we do pretty much anything even somewhat well (by their standards) whether it's in very low tech work, agriculture, or what have you, the aliens can make use of our efforts in exchange for technological exchange that, while extremely cheap for them, can be hugely beneficial* for us...

*or what we assume to be beneficial -- it's actually a little more complicated

This is correct if the aliens are running a capitalist economic model, Comparative Advantage means that however far advanced they are, and even if they are better at everything, there will be something that we are least bad at and we will be able to gain from trade (assuming trade costs, particularly inter-stellar transportation, do not eliminate the benefits) by trading that.

However, there must be a chance that a sufficiently advanced starfaring race will not be capitalist. Sufficiently advanced aliens being post-scarcity is quite likely. If a post scarcity race arives here we will either be incorporated into it (best scenario) or wiped out like bugs (worst scenario) IMO.

 

[vended]

Why would creatures who are radically physically different from humans make sounds anything like our own, let alone have words that sound exactly the same?

Because human languages cover a long ranges of sounds. There 's a good chance the sounds they would make mean something in any of the more than 6000 languages on earth.

 

[Sicarius]

Because human languages cover a long ranges of sounds. There 's a good chance the sounds they would make mean something in any of the more than 6000 languages on earth.

Human languages use almost every sound that can be created using the human mouth and vocal cords. But aliens won't have human bodies. How similar is human language to the clicks of dolphins? Or the sounds lizards make? And those are earth animals. Aliens would be totally different from anything on earth, so I doubt they'd be making very similar sounds, let alone have words like "bicycle", unless they were Star Trek original series style "just dudes with forehead makeup or fake ears on".

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

However, there must be a chance that a sufficiently advanced starfaring race will not be capitalist. Sufficiently advanced aliens being post-scarcity is quite likely. If a post scarcity race arives here we will either be incorporated into it (best scenario) or wiped out like bugs (worst scenario) IMO.

Hm, overall that's actually a very good point -- that said, I can't see any serious motivation for a species that has achieved post-scarcity in traveling light years to wipe us out. Maybe if we had something they wanted, but then they wouldn't be post-scarcity...

 

[B_Munro]

If a post scarcity race arives here we will either be incorporated into it (best scenario) or wiped out like bugs (worst scenario) IMO.

Or simply ignored...I mean Haiti is right next door, but the US is in no hurry to incorporate or wipe it out.

Bruce

 

[B_Munro]

BTW, post-scarcity doesn't mean they wouldn't want things from us - art, music, literature, entertainment isn't like chicken fat with any 30 pounds of it pretty much the same as every other 30 pounds.

Bruce

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Or simply ignored...I mean Haiti is right next door, but the US is in no hurry to incorporate or wipe it out.

BTW, post-scarcity doesn't mean they wouldn't want things from us - art, music, literature, entertainment isn't like chicken fat with any 30 pounds of it pretty much the same as every other 30 pounds.

Bruce

Well obviously, if they ignore us the scenario is moot for this discussion -- though even if we assume post-scarcity aliens, they could visit our planet to research us, I suppose...

 

[Sorangath]

All we have to base first contact on is what happened on Earth when those of higher tech met those of lower tech. And it was a pile of crap for those of lower tech;they were either exterminated or badly damaged/robbed of anything of value. If the aliens can reach us they are of much higher tech and will probebly kill or enslave us.

Glad we have so many diseases on our filthy Planet.

Mongols come to Europe = 40 Million People die from Plague
Europeans come to the Americas = 20 Million people die of smallpox

Aliens come to Earth = Pick one of the 2 817 Diseases and see if they survive them all