Dies the Fire Redux

[EWHM]

So you think the zones would be alot smaller than he estimates? Here's a speculative map of what they may look like.

http://pantheon.yale.edu/~ag335/united_states_dzones.jpg

Well, the final horde isn't the only driver of the death zone---the earlier portions of the horde will propagate a good bit further than that 30 miles. The question is, will they be able to swamp any lifeboats the locals would be able to establish. The bigger the city, the larger each wave will be---in a big enough city, the early adopter bicycle wave may be 'locust worthy' all in itself. BTW, I think your map is probably not too far off the mark---with a few caveats.
Particularly in the Western US, not all miles are created equal---particularly when you've got to use muscle power to travel them. So the circles will shrink in areas of difficult travel.
Salt Lake has a good chance of not making a death zone at all, depending on how faithful the Mormons have been in keeping their religious injunction to store food.
Iowa also may do pretty well, based on the sheer amount of food there (corn has basically taken over the state), if and only if they can control the choke point bridges across the rivers. They do that (as they did in the books), and they're golden, relatively speaking.

 

[RGB]

The bigger the city, the larger each wave will be---in a big enough city, the early adopter bicycle wave may be 'locust worthy' all in itself.

Especially in bike-crazy West Coast.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Well, the final horde isn't the only driver of the death zone---the earlier portions of the horde will propagate a good bit further than that 30 miles. The question is, will they be able to swamp any lifeboats the locals would be able to establish. The bigger the city, the larger each wave will be---in a big enough city, the early adopter bicycle wave may be 'locust worthy' all in itself. BTW, I think your map is probably not too far off the mark---with a few caveats.
Particularly in the Western US, not all miles are created equal---particularly when you've got to use muscle power to travel them. So the circles will shrink in areas of difficult travel.
Salt Lake has a good chance of not making a death zone at all, depending on how faithful the Mormons have been in keeping their religious injunction to store food.
Iowa also may do pretty well, based on the sheer amount of food there (corn has basically taken over the state), if and only if they can control the choke point bridges across the rivers. They do that (as they did in the books), and they're golden, relatively speaking.

I think Iowa would do well, more than enough land and people. The Mormons too. I'd allow a cities that may survive given good leadership and such. One of my main questions is regarding the Portland Protectorate Association and whether or not they're entirely realistic. If they were that would be a perfect example of neo-feudalism right there.

 

[EWHM]

Especially in bike-crazy West Coast.

There are lots of bikes in Portland certainly. But the bicycle portion of Portland's exodus is probably not locust-worthy by itself, particularly over the coastal mountain ranges between Portland and the beach. The little towns on the coast like Tillamook and Rockaway could probably survive if they organized quickly, as they have quite a bit of carrying capacity, much in the form of cows and other livestock, relative to the size of their population.

 

[EWHM]

I think Iowa would do well, more than enough land and people. The Mormons too. I'd allow a cities that may survive given good leadership and such. One of my main questions is regarding the Portland Protectorate Association and whether or not they're entirely realistic. If they were that would be a perfect example of neo-feudalism right there.

Some time back I vaguely recall a book by some historian who set himself up as a sort of courtier to the local gangs in a big city. I think Stirling was channeling a bit of that for Norman's PPA and it's alliance of gangsters and SCA types.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Some time back I vaguely recall a book by some historian who set himself up as a sort of courtier to the local gangs in a big city. I think Stirling was channeling a bit of that for Norman's PPA and it's alliance of gangsters and SCA types.

If he could win their respect it makes sense. I can see local thugs being swayed into some kind of alliance of convenience like that.

 

[EWHM]

If he could win their respect it makes sense. I can see local thugs being swayed into some kind of alliance of convenience like that.

I get the impression he was moving in their circles and those of the SCA before the Change---rather like the historian I mentioned. So he's got most of the relationships he needs intact immediately. Since the Emberverse includes the supernatural, it would seem likely that he had at least an unconscious premonition of the Change in advance--enough to move him towards setting up the framework without realizing precisely why. BTW, I've been to his initial throne room in the Portland Library (government documents room)---it really does almost seem like it was made for such a purpose.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I get the impression he was moving in their circles and those of the SCA before the Change---rather like the historian I mentioned. So he's got most of the relationships he needs intact immediately. Since the Emberverse includes the supernatural, it would seem likely that he had at least an unconscious premonition of the Change in advance--enough to move him towards setting up the framework without realizing precisely why. BTW, I've been to his initial throne room in the Portland Library (government documents room)---it really does almost seem like it was made for such a purpose.

Sounds like an awesome pad for an evil emperor.

See I've been toying with an idea for a more realistic world like this for a while. I can see a few more major nations surviving and I had ideas about a Europe that was slightly more populous instead of a mostly empty wasteland.

I thought that the Protectorate seemed like a plausible place as well as the CORA and Corvallis. Though I saw Corvallis as establishing a small republic in what was once Oregon, or at least a series of city states.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

As I pointed out in the last attempted redux, California will not be the "death-lands". Consider that California has one of the largest network of acqueducts on Earth. It is not electrically or steam powered and it has definitely transformed the state of California into one of the largest agricultural regions on Earth. While there would certainly be many deaths, California would survive....

Also, how come no one ever considers the idea of air-rifles or air guns? It works well for paintball. I know a few shop owners who use similar weapons to protect their stories in Chinatown...

As for the San Francisco Bay Area, another interesting development might be the ascendence of the "fighting arts". You can find masters of Thai muay-thai kick-boxing, Israeli Krav Maga, Japanese karate, Filipino escrima, Korean tae-kwon do, Chinese kung-fu, Brazilian capoeira, et al., all within the 7-square miles of the city, as far back as the 1960s. An interesting scenario might be showing the Bay Area in a light similar to the Enter the Dragon or Big Trouble in Little China .

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Also, how come no one ever considers the idea of air-rifles or air guns? It works well for paintball. I know a few shop owners who use similar weapons to protect their stories in Chinatown...

I think the problem would be the high pressure required for pumping the CO2 into the tanks. Not something easily accomplished with hand cranks. Besides a basic shield wall could probably stop those guns easy. Firing rocks or projectiles out of paintball guns, while potentially deadly if done right, will have no effect on a man in a suit of armor.

 

[EWHM]

Sounds like an awesome pad for an evil emperor.

See I've been toying with an idea for a more realistic world like this for a while. I can see a few more major nations surviving and I had ideas about a Europe that was slightly more populous instead of a mostly empty wasteland.

I thought that the Protectorate seemed like a plausible place as well as the CORA and Corvallis. Though I saw Corvallis as establishing a small republic in what was once Oregon, or at least a series of city states.

Most of Europe would be in very bad shape---the population density is really high compared to the US. I could see the Swiss pulling through as a coherent nation though, assuming that their cold war preps are still mostly in place (i.e., they've been rotating their food stocks in their shelter system). Actually any nation that maintained an equivalent to what the US used to have (a 3 year supply of food grains) has a better than even shot of surviving, assuming that the other nations around it did not. Basically, if you can survive the initial die off, you can claim the carrying capacity of the nations around you that didn't make it--Germans would call that lebensraum---to make up for the fact that you're probably well over your long term carrying capacity of your nation sans fossil fuel inputs. I could easily see some little enclaves in the mountain areas of Europe pulling through also--basically they need terrain to channel the hordes of refugees away from their little lifeboats. Some particularly 'heads-up' fishermen will probably also live as well. In addition, some of the old fortifications throughout Europe might become inhabited by adhoc bands with leaders that quickly grasp the new rules of the game and manage to rapidly seize around 1 million calories of long-shelf life food per minion, with probably at least 30-50 minions necessary to have better than a 50/50 shot of holding whatever place they take.

 

[EWHM]

I think the problem would be the high pressure required for pumping the CO2 into the tanks. Not something easily accomplished with hand cranks. Besides a basic shield wall could probably stop those guns easy. Firing rocks or projectiles out of paintball guns, while potentially deadly if done right, will have no effect on a man in a suit of armor.

I've seen some air rifles that you can use to hunt buffalo at a gun show in Portland. The problem with them is that the change in the gas laws caused by the Change would likely make them pretty ineffective. Compressing air doesn't give you the force back immediately when you release the pressure in the Emberverse, it leaks out gradually in the form of heat.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Most of Europe would be in very bad shape---the population density is really high compared to the US. I could see the Swiss pulling through as a coherent nation though, assuming that their cold war preps are still mostly in place (i.e., they've been rotating their food stocks in their shelter system). Actually any nation that maintained an equivalent to what the US used to have (a 3 year supply of food grains) has a better than even shot of surviving, assuming that the other nations around it did not. Basically, if you can survive the initial die off, you can claim the carrying capacity of the nations around you that didn't make it--Germans would call that lebensraum---to make up for the fact that you're probably well over your long term carrying capacity of your nation sans fossil fuel inputs. I could easily see some little enclaves in the mountain areas of Europe pulling through also--basically they need terrain to channel the hordes of refugees away from their little lifeboats. Some particularly 'heads-up' fishermen will probably also live as well. In addition, some of the old fortifications throughout Europe might become inhabited by adhoc bands with leaders that quickly grasp the new rules of the game and manage to rapidly seize around 1 million calories of long-shelf life food per minion, with probably at least 30-50 minions necessary to have better than a 50/50 shot of holding whatever place they take.

Ah that makes sense. Belgium would be screwed then. Maybe Switzerland would do very well and I can see some hold outs in Northern Germany and Denmark. Maybe a small surviving population there say around 10-15 000 at the most.

Italy would probably be the major power on the continent with perhaps a small French nation cropping up in the future at some point.

 

[Bavarian Raven]

Most of Europe would be in very bad shape---the population density is really high compared to the US. I could see the Swiss pulling through as a coherent nation though, assuming that their cold war preps are still mostly in place (i.e., they've been rotating their food stocks in their shelter system). Actually any nation that maintained an equivalent to what the US used to have (a 3 year supply of food grains) has a better than even shot of surviving, assuming that the other nations around it did not. Basically, if you can survive the initial die off, you can claim the carrying capacity of the nations around you that didn't make it--Germans would call that lebensraum---to make up for the fact that you're probably well over your long term carrying capacity of your nation sans fossil fuel inputs. I could easily see some little enclaves in the mountain areas of Europe pulling through also--basically they need terrain to channel the hordes of refugees away from their little lifeboats. Some particularly 'heads-up' fishermen will probably also live as well. In addition, some of the old fortifications throughout Europe might become inhabited by adhoc bands with leaders that quickly grasp the new rules of the game and manage to rapidly seize around 1 million calories of long-shelf life food per minion, with probably at least 30-50 minions necessary to have better than a 50/50 shot of holding whatever place they take.

you just gave me the picture of every castle (still usable one) in england, france, and germany having its own "little king" that controls the nearest farms and the such. i like it =D

 

[EWHM]

you just gave me the picture of every castle (still usable one) in england, france, and germany having its own "little king" that controls the nearest farms and the such. i like it =D

Initially they'd just have the castle (some of the castles have some interior farming potential if I recall), because they couldn't defend anything beyond the walls. The really smart ones would try to keep as low a profile as possible, possibly even putting out biohazard or radiation or plague markers to keep people away. Basically they have to hope that nobody develops the local 20:1 or so numerical superiority with the willingness to take a large amount of casualties that it'd take to root them out. I'd put our aspiring little lord's odds at better than 50/50 though of making it through to the other side. A lot of that is in his early 'draft picks' in terms of what minions he gets. What you really need are some good subcommanders that are genuinely grateful for what you've done for them---and this is a LOT harder to find than it sounds. Ben Franklin once said that if you want a man to like you better, get him to do YOU a favor. The reverse works very very poorly on most of the population.

 

[EWHM]

Ah that makes sense. Belgium would be screwed then. Maybe Switzerland would do very well and I can see some hold outs in Northern Germany and Denmark. Maybe a small surviving population there say around 10-15 000 at the most.

Italy would probably be the major power on the continent with perhaps a small French nation cropping up in the future at some point.

Some of the mines in Europe are another possible place for hold outs---if memory serves there are some truly gargantuan salt mines where you could defend (mostly by hiding) fairly easily.

 

[Bavarian Raven]

i love the irony that many of the stone-age tribes that remain in africa and south america and south-east asia won't even know anything happen... they'll just keep on living tlike they have for thousands of years

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Here's a map of my estimation of Europe by Change Year 8

 

[Ephraim Ben Raphael]

Here's a map of my estimation of Europe by Change Year 8

You need to use "Manage Attachment" to post images/maps.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

You need to use "Manage Attachment" to post images/maps.

Ok fixed it.

Ok the legend:

Red: Is the British Empire and her territories

Crimson: Is British allies, Iceland, and Northern Ireland respectively.

Green: The Republic of Shannon

Deep Purple: Kingdom of Sicily

Violet: Umbrian League

Brown: Kingdom of Denmark and associated Germans

Bright Blue: Norrland

Blue: The Swiss Confederation

Dark Green: Cypriot Greeks

Mid Purple: Is Ireland