I think it's actually quite possible. Napoleon was always looking for a way to seize India from the British. IIRC, it was actually the long-term goal of the Egyptian Campaign. Anyways, if Russia and France aren't antagonizing each other in Europe and enjoy good relations, I could certainly see some sort of joint Franco-Russian campaign to attack British India.[W]ould Paul insist on his ASB idea of invading india?
I think it's actually quite possible. Napoleon was always looking for a way to seize India from the British. IIRC, it was actually the long-term goal of the Egyptian Campaign. Anyways, if Russia and France aren't antagonizing each other in Europe and enjoy good relations, I could certainly see some sort of joint Franco-Russian campaign to attack British India.
As to whether or not such a campaign would be successful, well...
1) Are you thinking to an earlier Tilsit or to an informal agreement?
2) would the spheres of influence in europe match with those of Tilsit OTL? (Finland/Poland)
3) would those upstart colonists the other side of the ocean try to yank the tail of the british lion before 1812?
4) what about those papist irishmen
5) if it is Tilsit, do you think it could go Borodino-shaped?
Only Russia had claim on the whole Poland and on Finland as well.Poland might be recreated as enlarged Duchy of Warsaw, or Kingdom of Poland: Russia doesn't give up anything it took during the partitions, but Prussia and Austria yes.
In the original napoleon intention I think that Austria was meant to be the french watchdog in the east (thus, marriage to Maria Luise).Napoleon might want a loyal watchdog in the east, to keep an eye on Austria, remains of Prussia and Russia too, just in case.
IIRC Prussia at this time was trying to grab something out of the austrian collapse, thus aligning (pro tempore) with NapoleonThe question is if Prussia would have dared to mess with France in 1806 if the Russians had been at peace with Napoleon.
OTL Napoleon signed a treaty with Alexander (Tilsit) and waged war against him (Borodino). Would TTL Napoleon do the same with Paul?5) if it is Tilsit, do you think it could go Borodino-shaped?
5.
On Finland, perhaps, on Poland no. In 1807 the Duchy of Warsaw was created mostly from territory that had been earlier occupied by Prussia, inluding Warsaw itself. Warsaw and central Poland got under Russian control after Napoleon's defeat when Kingdom of Poland (Congress Poland) was created from Duchy of Warsaw minus Great Poland and Cracow. That is why I said that creation of Duchy of Warsaw (or any other name) does not cost Russia anythingOnly Russia had claim on the whole Poland and on Finland as well.
And russian armies have not been beaten yet.
Austria can not be trusted, because Vienna is still angry over Italy and French domination in Germany. Marriage to Maria Luise happened only in 1810, after Napoleon defeated Austria. Again. At that time DoW already existed.In the original napoleon intention I think that Austria was meant to be the french watchdog in the east (thus, marriage to Maria Luise).
If Austria and Prussia are to watched, instead, what about a marriage to a russian princess?
Did Paul have sisters/daughters available?
In any case, an enlarged Duchy of Warsaw would not be powerful enough to survive between austria, russia and prussia
seraphim74 said:Sorry to intrude, but I have some thought about the subject.
mailinutile2 said:Only Russia had claim on the whole Poland and on Finland as well.
And russian armies have not been beaten yet.
On the contrary, they achieved significant success in switzerland while Napoleon was touring pyramids and were recalled because Paul felt that british occupation of Malta was an offence to him as an Ospitalier Knight.
Thus I'd say russia would bargain from a better position
mailinutile2 said:If Austria and Prussia are to watched, instead, what about a marriage to a russian princess?
Did Paul have sisters/daughters available?
[B][B]seraphim74[/B][/B] said:The question is if Prussia would have dared to mess with France in 1806 if the Russians had been at peace with Napoleon.
mailinutile2 said:OTL Napoleon signed a treaty with Alexander (Tilsit) and waged war against him (Borodino). Would TTL Napoleon do the same with Paul?
I agree that the personal union of the crowns of Russia and poland on the Tsar head is the neater soulution.
mailinutile2 said:Has the Danish fleet been Copenhagen-ized yet?
seraphim74 said:That would require Russia acting AGAINST Austria and Prussia - at that time Poland was mostly under their occupation. During the partitions Russia took mostly Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Ruthenia (Ukraine). The core of strictly Polish provinces, like Masovia, Great and Little Poland, Pomerelia, was taken by Berlin and Vienna. If Paul wants to be crowned king of Poland, he must take at least Warsaw from Prussia and possibly Cracow from Austria.
With Paul alive situation in Europe in early 1800s is slightly different. However, Britain is still hostile to France, Prussia hates that Corsican Usurper ruling in Germany, and Austria dreams about regaining Italy. I think it is a safe bet to say that Britain organizes the Third Coalition with Prussia in place of Russia. The result is most probably Napoleon's victory, even more decisive than IOTL. At that time he and La Grande Arme were pretty much invincible. Now, Prussia and Austria get beaten, but if they ask for peace quickly enough, there migh not be Duchy of Warsaw at all. IOTL Prussians kept fighting, because they counted on Russia's help. ITTL they suffer similar defeats with no help in sight. If they surrender earlier, Napoleon doesn't have to chase them to Warsaw and he never enters Poland.
It is also possible that Paul decide to intervene to help Napoleon. THEN we can have realistic scenario in which he captures Polish lands from Prussia and Austria and either rebuilds smaller Poland (slightly bigger DoW) keeping Russian gains from partition or he simply incorporates them all into Russia.
What would have happened if Czar Paul I of Russia hadn't been murdered in 1801?
something else to consider... the murder of the duc d'Enghien, how does Paul react.
[B]AuroraBorealis[/B] said:the second league of Armed Neutrality doesn't immediately collapse following the 1st Battle of Copenhagen...Sweden, Prussia and Russia remain allied in an effort to try and defend the interests of neutral shipping against the perceived excesses of the British Blockade, including their rights to continue trading with Imperial France.
The question you should be asking then is whether the British then continue their campaign into the Baltic after Copenhagen in an attempt to destroy the Russian and Swedish fleets.
that in itself would have far reaching consequences on the diplomatic front for Britain...they would likely end up alienated from the other maritime powers of the continent with only Austria perhaps as an eventual ally.
Sweden and Prussia may remain within the Russian Sphere and if not exactly allied with Imperial France, they could become increasingly Hostile diplomatically to Britain. If the league remains ongoing, Denmark will have another option other than the French alliance.
Prussia could find itself reigned in and avoid the fourth coalition war, or have more allies from the north perhaps...though its likely the Imperial French diplomacy with the league will be much different than that with just Prussia.
Consider those immediate effects first before looking down the road to 1810.
[B]AuroraBorealis[/B] said:As an immediate effect, the Peace of Amiens probably holds a bit longer. Not only will the British have Imperial France to consider, but continuing hostility from the league should it have remained intact. Austria also is not likely to have the aid of Russia immediately, so a 3rd coalition war on OTL schedule is out as well.
Its likely that from an Anti French point of view, that Austrian diplomacy is going to be key...They won't go to war with France if they can help it with only Britain as an ally, no matter how much money London throws at them. they will want the Russians and if at all possible the Prussians on side That means working to ameliorate the differences between the league members and Britain first and then getting L'Emporeur to over step himself with respect to the league souring any goodwill that may have existed. If anyone can pull it off its likely Metternich but its likely to be tough even for him...
[B]AuroraBorealis[/B] said:So question if the peace of Amiens or Luneville were to hold on the continent could Imp. France succeed against a grand coalition of Austria/Prussia/Russia/ Sweden and Denmark, financed liberally by London with only the Italian allies and the ambivalence of Spain/ say 1808 or '09
mailinutile2 said:Badly.[B]AuroraBorealis[/B] said:something else to consider... the murder of the duc d'Enghien, how does Paul react.
Possibly, even Worse.
mailinutile2 said:If he were at peace, we would see public mourning in St Peterbug for the murdered duke, denounce of the treaty with France.
Badly.
Possibly, even Worse.
If he were at peace, we would see public mourning in St Peterbug for the murdered duke, denounce of the treaty with France.
Thus all boils down to the question: is a Russian army marching in northern Pakistan at this time?
I don't see the British risking to turn all the league of Armed Neutrality against them : would be too much counter-productive for them.
They want the French and Napoleon to go down but are they really going to risk their reputation and probably more for that?
As for the league of Armed Neutrality, the French and Napoleon had a skilled politician in Talleyrand. His loyalty to Napoleon is really low but he could make sure the league stays Neutral. And that's what Napoleon will want him to do as it will give him an advantage over Britain.
Interesting question is : What does Britain if Russia, Prussia, Sweden and Denmark remain Neutral? They can only count on Portugal and Austria to fight against France.
Metternich is likely to try the Policy you mention so that Napoleon overstep himself. Napoleon's not an imbecile but I admit he has a bad temper.
However, as I mentionned above, Napoleon has Talleyrand on his side. I don't know how the political duel between Talleyrand and Meternich would end up, but it's quite likely to be interesting as the prize is the alliance/neutrality or hostilness of the league towards France.
"Impossible n'est pas Français" as said Napoleon .
Seriously, it would be a huge challenge for l'Empereur but he can overcome it. They're won't have been a single war between 1801 and 1808/9 in this scenario : France will still have many of its veterans. And while it's true that he won't have fought many wars, let's not forget that Napoleon was a Tactical genius.
True : this was one of Napoleon's mistakes as it shocked many of the European monarchs. Paul would probably not be an exception.
Not so sure. I don't really know how close the Tsar was to the duke. And even then, I don't recall something similar happening in Europe when Enghein was murdered (but I don't know all the details on this affair).
Paul I might be saddened by the Duke's execution and his opinion on Napoleon might lower a bit because of it. But I don't if he would be going as far as to denounce the treaty with France.
Not so sure. I don't really know how close the Tsar was to the duke. And even then, I don't recall something similar happening in Europe when Enghein was murdered (but I don't know all the details on this affair).