If the Balkans is at the mercy of the Ottomans and Golden Horde/Kipchak
Khanate, maybe this will allow the Ottomans of Mehmed the II to devote more military resources to the conquest of southern Italy in the 1480's.
Sounds plausible. The Tatar Khanate could probably keep Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, and Sweden all busy. Now, the question is, what is Europe's reaction to Ottoman armies running around the Italian pennensula, and probably getting a bit too close to Rome for the Pope's comfort? I would suppose the Pope would try to call a crusade to expel them-does it work?
With a strong Muslim power being felt as far as the Baltic as well as the Balkans, what would this do for the cause of the Protestant Reformation in Europe?
Well, seen as how the Ottoman Empire during its hayday scared Europe senseless, and might have indirectly contributed to the Reformation (Martin Luther wrote something to the effect that the Turks had been sent by God to punish the decadent Catholics for their sins), potentially a lot. I imagine two giant Muslim Empires, both achieving huge runs of success against Christians and one threatening Rome itself, would be a major boost to the Reformation.
Especially if Mehmed manages to sack Rome. Heck, considering the success the Reformation achieved in OTL without anything remotely like this happening, I can imagine the fall of Rome being the straw that breaks the Church's back.
With the reduction of the Russian duchies to mere protectorates, the ruling families may consider formally converting to Islam and intermarrying with their Tataro-Turkic overlords.
About three months ago, I posted a thread about Gold Horde Russia. One of the earlier POD's was the assassination of the Ilkhanid emir and warlord Chupan, whom acted as the power-behind-the-throne for the Il Khan Abu Sa'id. With the death of their best general, the Il Khanate of Iran was conquered in the north-east by the forces of Uzbeg Khan.
The occupation of northern Iran by the Golden Horde would be a temporary affair, where it would become independent under the rule of a rebellious Golden Horde Emir, or under a native dynasty. Until then, the Volga region would see further, if steady colonization by Persians at the behest of the Kipchak Khans. This is meant to add to the strengh of the Khanate before conversions could take place among the Slavic population.
I like to keep my POD's to a minimum, preferably one. (At present, I'm working with two-Tini Beg Khan has a long reign over the Horde, and his descendents establish a stable government and servicible line of secession. And something happens to Ivan Khality-haven't figured out what, maybe Uzbeg Khan starts wondering where all the taxes he's supposed to be getting from Muscovy are going). But all of this sounds good, maybe I'll have an Ilkhanate POD too (though I don't want to rip off your timeline, I prefer to be original
). Or perhaps the colonists are recruited from the Volga river valley (old Volga Bulgaria-I understand this area had a majority Muslim-Turkic population at the time), the Caucasus, Transoxania, and the numerous refugees created by the rise and collapse of Timur's Empire. Eventually, the Russian slavic population would convert to Islam (or at least a majority would) and many of them would assimilate into Tatar culture (the majority of the Ottaman Turkish population were, as I understand it, assimilated Greeks)
What would this mean for the native Russian peasants? Would Dhimmitude for the rural populace reflect the OTL Russian serf system anyway, or reflect the general situation of the Christians within the Ottoman Empire?
Dhimmitude didn't work like that in any OTL Muslim Empires, I doubt it would in this one. I suspect what would ulitimately evolve would be something like the Ottoman Millet system-the Christians being tolerated and having some autonomy, but still subordinate to Muslims. Interesting idea though.
With the Balkans being militarily dominated on two fronts by the Ottoman Empire and the Kipchak-Rus Khanate, how far would slave-raiding expeditions into eastern Europe go? As far as Germany, perhaps?
Possibly. I'm debating just how militarily successful to make the Tatars. Do they take Novgorod (which probably falls under the Swedish protection/rule by necessity)? How much of Sweden? How much of Poland/Lithuania? Do they go right through Poland and attack the East of the Holy Roman Empire? (Seems a little overoptimisitic)
With a secure future for the Golden Horde, the Tatars might enter the territories of Lithuania as conquerers, rather than refugees.
Yes, I expect so. And instead of an embattled minority in Russia, they would be its rulers.