Keynes' Cruisers

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Well, that's one effect of having Rommel die on the Western Front; granted, Libya is probably still screwed in the long run, though, especially once the Americans enter.

As for Malaya and the Far East, anyone but Percival in charge would be an improvement (not that it might make much difference)...
 
Well, that's one effect of having Rommel die on the Western Front; granted, Libya is probably still screwed in the long run, though, especially once the Americans enter.

As for Malaya and the Far East, anyone but Percival in charge would be an improvement (not that it might make much difference)...

As I am sketching out the butterflies of a far less dashing North Africa campaign I am seeing a lot of trucks being made available to the Heer. That has significant knock-on effects in 1941-1942... I won't say what is happening in Q4 1942 through end of H1 1943 but German logistical flows are changing dramatically too.
 
One butterfly is that the 11th East African Division was formed in February of 1943; its forming a little under two years earlier. Another is that both the 11th East African and 5th Indian Divisions are being sent to the Far East (IOTL, the 5th Indian wasn't sent to the Far East until late 1943); with a better North African campaign, more divisions are available for the Far East (now, whether they'll make a difference in the Far East will be found out in about a little under 6 and a half months)...

One of the important things about the divisions being sent East --- they are veteran divisions with experienced combat commanders. Should stiffen quite a few green units and they should know a few tricks of the trade.
 
April 18, 1941 Port Said, Egypt

The train picked up speed. It was leaving the station, pulling hundreds of tons of supplies forward to the Western Desert Force. Three dozen brand new Ford trucks were strapped to the flat bed cars. The last three cars were passenger cars. The first two contained infantry replacements for the 4th Indian Division. The last one was quarantined. A fresh general from England had arrived that morning and this was his travelling car to the front.

The thin, rat faced man with twitchy whiskers concentrated on the scenery of the harbor. It was a mass of confusion and a source of imperial strength and vulnerability. Any attack here could cripple the logistical ability of the entire Mediterranean position. There were not enough guns, there were not enough fighters, there were not enough firefighters to deal with an attack. However that was not his primary concern. He had a three week remit to observe the operations of the Western Desert Force and then make recommendations for improvements to the training program for Home Forces. The threat of invasion was decreasing, so more divisions were being notified to begin to prepare for movements in the Levant or further East.

After his time in Egypt, the skilled observer would inspect the forces of East Africa. One of those divisions, either the 5th Indian or the 11th African would become a division that would eventually fall under his command as he took up the task of standing up a new corps headquarters in Malaya. The other division would refit before reinforcing Burma.

Loving this @fester what a time line you got here, just one question who is the General you are mentioning?
 
is he there ahead of time?

also that sea battle post was awesome!
Significantly ahead of time. In OTL he did not leave UK Home Forces until summer 1942. He had a corps command at this time OTL. My logic is the lower invasion probability is cutting more forces/assets to go east. Monty is seen as a good asset, young but good so sending him by early summer 1941 to Malaysia to get his determination to train to good use before seeing to find a use for him in summer 1942 seems to be a reasonable play.
 
One of the benefits of more trucks for the Germans is that a higher percent may be the same model or model family. That makes it easier for people in my profession to stock the needed parts. Also it makes it easier for field units to keep some trucks going by stripping a damaged truck of usable parts. As the number of models and country of origin increases, the harder it is to have the right parts in stock or to stripped damaged trucks for parts. I am sure that in the original timeline there were broken down trucks that could not be fixed due to the lack parts for that model while the supply depot was full of parts for other models.

I do not know if the German logistic people will try this but one way to minimize this is to try and have the similar models assigned to the same army group. That way the supply depot for that army has those parts. The other army has a different group of trucks and their supply depot carries those parts. The challenge is that the number of trucks never balances out. Also over time due to losses and replacements, the number of different models in each Army group will grow. However, at least you start out with something reasonable to supply people.
 
Updated the Montgomery post to 11th African Division not 11th East African Division... my fault.
I want to talk about my intent for a minute.

Commonwealth wastage and casualties in the Western Desert will be lower as there will be fewer surrenders and less aggressive major clashes. The Libyan/Western Desert campaign will occur at a much lower level of activity because the German commander is following his actual orders (backstop the Italians and save Libya --- not try to reach the Nile) will lead to forces freed up from the conclusion of a successful East African campaign for deployment elsewhere.
Interesting. I think this needs to be balanced against Churchill's desire for offensive action, which will only be amplified in a couple months- troops reinforcing Malaya aren't attacking the Nazis after all. It would be interesting to know which units were raised in the Far East and Australia and sent to North Africa in otl, as I think it is likely that some of these, especially the Aussie forces, might get held back in Malaya to train.
 
Interesting. I think this needs to be balanced against Churchill's desire for offensive action, which will only be amplified in a couple months- troops reinforcing Malaya aren't attacking the Nazis after all. It would be interesting to know which units were raised in the Far East and Australia and sent to North Africa in otl, as I think it is likely that some of these, especially the Aussie forces, might get held back in Malaya to train.
Okay --- here is what I have the Australian Imperial Force as of May 1, 1941

6th Australian Division --- Levant/Cyprus ( 80% manpower, 40% firepower strength after Greece)
7th Australian Division --- Nile Delta
8th Australian Division --- Home and Far East Service (22 Brigade Malaya garrison since February, 27 Brigade Darwin, to Malaya mid-summer 1941, 23 Brigade Pacific Island garrisons (Rabaul 1 battalion, Ambon 1 Battalion, Timor 1 Battalion)
9th Australian Division -- Libya

1st Australian Armored Division --- equipment and manpower being assembled for division formation summer 1941

2nd New Zealand Division -- Crete
3rd New Zealand Division -- 3 sheets of paper in a staff officer's desk in Wellington

1st Australian Armored Division in TTL will be in better shape as equipment from both the US and UK will be more readily available. The 6th Division is the most valuable and combat proven group. 7th has some time in uniform and is fully trained up. 8th and 9th are still raw. 9th will have seaoning via combat in Libya.

The Kiwis got good combat experience in Greece but are very light on equipment.
 
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Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Every little 1% improvement in British performance, and corresponding deterioration in German performance, will soon mount up. The Germans and the Japanese, were very lucky in the first years of their involvement in the war. It would have only taken a few small changes to total derail their respective performances. The replacement of Rommel with a general who obeys his orders looks initially to be to the Germans advantage. However Rommel did at least keep the British on their toes and managed to divert from other areas of much needed supplies. As we are seeing the British and now able to take a more balanced approach to events. The move of Montgomery to the Far East is going to be a major headache for the Japanese, and others.

He will no doubt cause no end of outraged correspondence to both the War Office and Colonial Office, as he upsets numorus people. Gone will be the normal sleepy ways and layed back attitudes, of gin fizzes on the veranda at sundown. A lot of the older dugouts are going to find that their nice cushy posting is over, while the younger and fitter, are introduced to the delights of jungle bashing. The civil administration is also going to get a kick in the pants. The attitude of don't do anything, as it might frighten the natives, is going to come up against Monties intransigence. Defensive lines will get built, preparations made to defend the airstrips will be put in place, and beach defenses constructed. And when/if the Japanese invade the GOC, is a man who has a total grip on the battle and the troops under him. Things will be very different this time around and hopefully the Japanese will fail big time.

RR.
 
I don't think it has been mentioned yet, but another butterfly here will be morale. The Germans are not quite the juggernaut they were OTL, and IMHO Crete will be held even if the Germans attempt to take it. In North Africa the UK is doing better in all respects, and Rommel/Afrika Corps are not seen as some sort of ghostly bogeyman. Better morale means the individual serviceman will fight longer and harder, and each extra bit of effort, each extra hour of fighting begins to add up.
 
The civil administration is also going to get a kick in the pants. The attitude of don't do anything, as it might frighten the natives, is going to come up against Monties intransigence. Defensive lines will get built, preparations made to defend the airstrips will be put in place, and beach defenses constructed. And when/if the Japanese invade the GOC, is a man who has a total grip on the battle and the troops under him. Things will be very different this time around and hopefully the Japanese will fail big time.
No Governor I'm not building defences, no need to worry the natives. I'm just training the men how to build them. Of course I'll dismantle them when the trainings finished. When will that be? I should be done in a couple of years.
 
No Governor I'm not building defences, no need to worry the natives. I'm just training the men how to build them. Of course I'll dismantle them when the trainings finished. When will that be? I should be done in a couple of years.
These past few posts are some of the major tipping points I have been working towards for months now.
 
So Monty's got about 6 months to whip the Army in Malaya into fighting trim. If anyone can do it, he can. With a bit of luck that will spur the RAF to do the same, though they need better aircraft than Vildebeest, Mk1 Blenheims, Hudsons and Buffalo.
 
a troop of M-2 light tanks on Crete???? oh the butterflies are a flying!!!!!
Four obsolete light tanks aren't much, but in the right spot, or should I say on the right airfield could make all the difference. Paras are notoriously bad at fighting tanks though the Germans did have some recoilless rifles on Crete. Their capture would hopefully kill the abomination that was the PIAT.
 
As an AT weapon the PIAT actually had several advantages over the other man portable AT weapons available to the Allies.
Some of these are:- It could be used from within a building or dugout. It had a very small launch signal improving concealment and hence survivability of crew. It was capable of indirect fire.
 

Glyndwr01

Banned
As an AT weapon the PIAT actually had several advantages over the other man portable AT weapons available to the Allies.
Some of these are:- It could be used from within a building or dugout. It had a very small launch signal improving concealment and hence survivability of crew. It was capable of indirect fire.
full

You can do crazy things with the PIAT like the Canadians in 1944!
 
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