A True October Surprise: The Added Surprises
- Thread starter lord caedus
- Start date
Where Bill Clinton hosts an exciting late-night talk show about Egyptology.
Yeah, I'm not sure what quite sure what "based on the Tories" means- similar with regards to ideology or how they position themselves or what?
Yes. With the 1994 strike butterflied away and with some World Series championships under their belt, the Expos stay in Montreal.
That smacks too much of ripping off AJND, as @wolfram pointed out.
I meant the background around the civil war. How did Malan come to power? Where was De Klerk? Did he become President in this TL? Why did the civil war start? How long did it last? How many casualties were there?
Was the first all-race election in 1993 then?
No Zuma possibly butterflies away the Marikana analogue. No Zuma also possibly means that the likes of Mpofu, Shilowa, and Vavi don't leave the ANC. Or, you could have them leave the ANC (except for Shilowa) when Zuma gets fired in this TL, as many people who have now become his enemy were strong supporters of him (Vavi is a prime example).
Some of those questions have already been answered.
The civil war, although I didn't mention it, was the result of near-unanimous* international pressure was exerted sooner (no Reagan to justify supporting apartheid SA on the basis of anti-communism) and increased strain to the apartheid regime resulted in an even more unstable situation that (thankfully averted IOTL) blew up in everyone's face.
*-Thanks Israel!
Possibly, but it doesn't, considering that there were structural factors underlying Lommin that exist outside of Zuma that I explained in the post itself.
I've already explained how and why these people leave the ANC and it has nothing to do with Zuma. Basically their departures are a result of ATL political circumstances and the ANC weakening (or at least visibly losing its total dominance over politics) faster than it is IOTL.
Robert Byrd
The first (and so far only) vice president appointed under the terms of the 25th Amendment, Robert Byrd is more notable for his legislative career and longevity than his brief stint as Edmund Muskie's vice president. Born Cornelius Calvin Sale, Jr. in rural North Carolina, his mother died when he was still an infant, leaving him to be raised by his aunt and uncle in West Virginia per her wishes. Renamed Robert Byrd, he worked a series of odd jobs in his early adult years, including as a shipyard welder during World War II. It was in this period that Byrd joined the Ku Klux Klan, rising to lead the local chapter before losing interest in the organization by the mid-1940s. His time in the Klan would become his greatest shame and something he would apologize for repeatedly in later decades.
Byrd won elections first to the state House of Delegates, then state Senate before winning a seat in the House of Representatives in 1952. After three terms in the House, Byrd won election to the Senate in 1958, starting his service in the body that he came to love. His first decade of service would similarly come back to haunt Byrd in later years, mostly because of his opposition to desegregation— including filibustering the Civil Rights Act of 1965 for 14 hours. By 1968, however, Byrd's views had begun to evolve and he became a reliable vote for the party line on civil rights by the time he left the Senate for the first time. In 1971, Byrd toppled Edward Kennedy from his position as the Democratic whip in a move that blindsided the heir to Camelot (although Kennedy would later say that his defeat was a blessing, allowing him to focus more on individual issues and policy work). As the second highest-ranking Democrat in the Senate and was set to become the majority leader when his boss, Mike Mansfield, decided to retire.
Everything changed for Byrd when President Humphrey died. The ascension of Vice President Muskie left a vacancy in the vice presidency, and heading into what was likely to be a rough election year, the new president quickly keyed in on Byrd as his vice presidential successor: in addition to being a southerner who could appeal to southern Democrats who had been alienated by the party for the past eight years, he would easily be confirmed by Congress. Byrd, although reluctant to leave the Senate, agreed with the conditions that he be involved in selecting cabinet officials if the ticket won in 1976 and that he be the main leader in the administration's education and transportation policies.
Byrd's 311-day vice presidency —the shortest by a vice president who neither died in office or succeeded to the presidency— was bittersweet. Policy disagreements between Muskie and Byrd, exacerbated by the knowledge that 1976 was destined to be a Republican year, caused a deterioration of their working relationship. However, Byrd was able to make his impact felt on the education and transportation fronts, notably helping to increase funding for history education in the nation's schools.
Out of office following the loss to George Bush and Bob Dole, Byrd toyed with running for president in 1980, but his past Klan membership and civil rights votes put an end to the run before it began. Instead, he returned to school and got his undergraduate degree (having attained his law degree while in the Senate in an era before undergraduate degrees were required). In 1984, with his former colleague Jennings Randolph retiring, Byrd ran for and easily won the election to succeed Randolph, returning to the Senate after an eight-year absence.
Laying low for his first Congress back, Byrd ran to succeed Alan Cranston as the Democratic leader in the Senate upon Cranston's retirement from that role in 1989. His absence from the Senate, however, resulted in the lack of support that he had enjoyed following his replacement of Kennedy in 1971 and he lost to Hawaii Senator Daniel Inouye. In consolation, the Senate created the position of Deputy President pro tempore, to be filled by any former president or vice president that served in the Senate, of which Byrd was made the first (and so far only) holder. In this role, Byrd was technically in the Senate leadership even during periods of Republican control of the Senate.
Following his failure to become the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Byrd became a background figure, serving as a mentor to several senators, including his future successor as vice president, Joe Sestak. He also became infamous for using his influence to divert federal projects and funds to his constituents in West Virginia, something that undoubtedly helped him win re-election in landslide elections well into his nineties (winning re-election at age 91 in 2008 by a margin of 30 percent). He returned to national prominence as a key figure in scuttling the Gephardt administration's bid to begin to shift the national power grid towards more renewable energy sources (and away from coal and other fossil fuels).
The former vice president passed away while in office in June 2010, at 92 years of age, having finished his final volume of the history of the Senate just months before.
Byrd won elections first to the state House of Delegates, then state Senate before winning a seat in the House of Representatives in 1952. After three terms in the House, Byrd won election to the Senate in 1958, starting his service in the body that he came to love. His first decade of service would similarly come back to haunt Byrd in later years, mostly because of his opposition to desegregation— including filibustering the Civil Rights Act of 1965 for 14 hours. By 1968, however, Byrd's views had begun to evolve and he became a reliable vote for the party line on civil rights by the time he left the Senate for the first time. In 1971, Byrd toppled Edward Kennedy from his position as the Democratic whip in a move that blindsided the heir to Camelot (although Kennedy would later say that his defeat was a blessing, allowing him to focus more on individual issues and policy work). As the second highest-ranking Democrat in the Senate and was set to become the majority leader when his boss, Mike Mansfield, decided to retire.
Everything changed for Byrd when President Humphrey died. The ascension of Vice President Muskie left a vacancy in the vice presidency, and heading into what was likely to be a rough election year, the new president quickly keyed in on Byrd as his vice presidential successor: in addition to being a southerner who could appeal to southern Democrats who had been alienated by the party for the past eight years, he would easily be confirmed by Congress. Byrd, although reluctant to leave the Senate, agreed with the conditions that he be involved in selecting cabinet officials if the ticket won in 1976 and that he be the main leader in the administration's education and transportation policies.
Byrd's 311-day vice presidency —the shortest by a vice president who neither died in office or succeeded to the presidency— was bittersweet. Policy disagreements between Muskie and Byrd, exacerbated by the knowledge that 1976 was destined to be a Republican year, caused a deterioration of their working relationship. However, Byrd was able to make his impact felt on the education and transportation fronts, notably helping to increase funding for history education in the nation's schools.
Out of office following the loss to George Bush and Bob Dole, Byrd toyed with running for president in 1980, but his past Klan membership and civil rights votes put an end to the run before it began. Instead, he returned to school and got his undergraduate degree (having attained his law degree while in the Senate in an era before undergraduate degrees were required). In 1984, with his former colleague Jennings Randolph retiring, Byrd ran for and easily won the election to succeed Randolph, returning to the Senate after an eight-year absence.
Laying low for his first Congress back, Byrd ran to succeed Alan Cranston as the Democratic leader in the Senate upon Cranston's retirement from that role in 1989. His absence from the Senate, however, resulted in the lack of support that he had enjoyed following his replacement of Kennedy in 1971 and he lost to Hawaii Senator Daniel Inouye. In consolation, the Senate created the position of Deputy President pro tempore, to be filled by any former president or vice president that served in the Senate, of which Byrd was made the first (and so far only) holder. In this role, Byrd was technically in the Senate leadership even during periods of Republican control of the Senate.
Following his failure to become the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Byrd became a background figure, serving as a mentor to several senators, including his future successor as vice president, Joe Sestak. He also became infamous for using his influence to divert federal projects and funds to his constituents in West Virginia, something that undoubtedly helped him win re-election in landslide elections well into his nineties (winning re-election at age 91 in 2008 by a margin of 30 percent). He returned to national prominence as a key figure in scuttling the Gephardt administration's bid to begin to shift the national power grid towards more renewable energy sources (and away from coal and other fossil fuels).
The former vice president passed away while in office in June 2010, at 92 years of age, having finished his final volume of the history of the Senate just months before.
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Politburo of the Communist Party of China
The Standing Committee of the Central Political Bureau (Politburo) of the Communist Party of China is the de facto leadership body of the People's Republic of China, consisting of anywhere between five and nine members of the senior party leadership. The Standing Committee's members are chosen from the 25 members of the Political Bureau (Politburo) at the start of each party congress (held every five years). After coming to power after Mao Zedong's death, Deng Xiaoping and other party leaders worked to prevent another consolidation of power in one member like had occurred under Mao, with disastrous consequences like the Great Leap Forward. Age-based retirement has resulted in a high level of turnover at each party congress, strengthening the role of the party over any individual, although former general secretaries such as Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin have retained great influence over the party's internal politics and subsequently the selection of new members of the Politburo and Standing Committee.
The 19th Party Congress is due to be held in September 2017 and will likely see the retirement of President Li Changchun and two others (He Guoqiang & Zhang Dejian) as a result of age. It is widely expected that Premier Xi Jinping will succeed Li as president while Li Keqiang will takeover the premier's office, with at least one new member will be appointed to the Standing Committee. The two other members likely to be held over from the 18th Standing Committee (Li Yuanchao and Bo Xilai) are also likely to take higher positions in both the Communist Party hierarchy and in the state itself as their seniority increases.
The 19th Party Congress is due to be held in September 2017 and will likely see the retirement of President Li Changchun and two others (He Guoqiang & Zhang Dejian) as a result of age. It is widely expected that Premier Xi Jinping will succeed Li as president while Li Keqiang will takeover the premier's office, with at least one new member will be appointed to the Standing Committee. The two other members likely to be held over from the 18th Standing Committee (Li Yuanchao and Bo Xilai) are also likely to take higher positions in both the Communist Party hierarchy and in the state itself as their seniority increases.
So, one of my hard drives is beginning to fail. I have all of my data (including the ATOS infoboxes) on it and, rather than risk it completely losing everything, I'm using Linux from USB drive to use my computer.
What that means is, I can't post any new infoboxes until my roommate transfers all my data onto the server, then installs Windows on my functioning hard drive. That means maybe Monday or Tuesday is when I'll be able to get the infoboxes & write-up.
Once I get access to the infoboxes & write-up, I'll catch up for all the days I miss (so if I can get to it on Monday I'll post 3 infoboxes in rapid-fire fashion for that's day's infoboxes plus Saturday & Sunday).
What that means is, I can't post any new infoboxes until my roommate transfers all my data onto the server, then installs Windows on my functioning hard drive. That means maybe Monday or Tuesday is when I'll be able to get the infoboxes & write-up.
Once I get access to the infoboxes & write-up, I'll catch up for all the days I miss (so if I can get to it on Monday I'll post 3 infoboxes in rapid-fire fashion for that's day's infoboxes plus Saturday & Sunday).
Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq
Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq is perhaps the most infamous Pakistani in history and the man whose legacy will forever be tied to what happened on June 24, 1987. A conservative, religious man, Zia initially served in the British Indian Army, fighting the Japanese in Burma. After independence, Zia remained in the military and begun to move up the ranks. Stationed in Jordan from 1967 to 1970, he was essential in the Jordanian suppression of the Palestinian Liberation Organization revolt known as Black September. This, and his appearance as an apolitical soldier led Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to appoint him Chief of Army Staff over more senior generals. Bhutto's government had become very unpopular and, despite winning new elections in 1977, the opposition protested the results, alleging that the vote had been rigged. Finally, the impasse and calls by the opposition for the military to depose Bhutto grew too strong and Zia arrested Bhutto and declared martial law, with himself as Chief Martial Law Administrator. Zia initially pledged that new elections would be held later that year...and then backed away from that promise, as would happen repeatedly throughout his rule.
Zia began the "Islamization" of Pakistan, a step away from Bhutto's emphasis on socialist economics and secularism, as a way to both solidify the country's national identity and imprint his vision on the country. His government made adultery, blasphemy and fornication crimes, with whippings and amputation becoming punishments, and forced women to cover their heads at all times in public. That his country was allied to the Soviet Union, with its state atheism, seems to have been forgotten by Zia (as well as Moscow) in a Cold War geopolitical calculation.
Becoming president after failing to convince figurehead president Fazal Ilhai Chaudry to stay on for another term, Zia ran the country as a technocracy and finally held non-partisan elections for the Pakistani parliament in 1985 after being forced to by international pressure. However, Zia made all of his decisions retroactively legal before the new body was to first meet and gave the presidency numerous powers that allowed him to effectively ignore the will of parliament.
The coup that overthrew Bhutto had unwittingly exposed Pakistan's nuclear program to the world and international condemnation (except from the Soviet bloc) had led to sanctions on Pakistan that Zia tried hard to lift. The civil wars in Afghanistan and Iran caused Pakistan's budgets to be strained by trains of refugees and occasionally, violence that spilled across the border. This forced Zia and the other generals in his government to slash spending for other programs to pay for increased border controls and programs for the refugees— like the country's budget for their nuclear program. However, he gained some international goodwill by allowing UNSFFI to stage its eastern invasion of Iran out of Pakistan.
Nevertheless, Zia continued to push the nuclear program along, despite numerous complaints by program administrators over the quality of the scientists the state employed, the shoe-string budget and unrealistic timetable that the regime put the program on. It was only a matter of time until disaster struck— but no one would have imagined it would have been as bad as what did occur.
Nothing of the Kahuta Works Laboratory survived the explosion, but it is universally agreed that somehow, a nuclear bomb was armed and detonated. Most theories say it was accidental, the result of overworked and under-trained staff failing to go through proper safety procedures for testing the armament systems while a persistent few say that it was a nuclear strike by a foreign power (usually assumed to be India or Israel) made to look like an accident. Regardless, the explosion and its aftermath killed nearly 50,000 Pakistanis and left thousands injured, homeless or suffering from fallout as the trade winds shifted radiation over to northern India and China.
The explosion shocked Pakistan and the world to the core— anti-nuclear sentiment would gain a strong symbol of the danger and folly of nuclear weapons and the standing of the state and of Zia in his country’s eyes dropped to astonishing lows. Protests began to break out within a week of the disaster, and began to snowball into massive demonstrations in every major city in the country. Tipped off of an impending coup to against him— and fearing a fate similar to Bhutto, who was found guilty of treason by a kangaroo court and executed— Zia resigned the presidency, handing power over to the Speaker of the National Assembly Hamid Nasir Chattha (first in the line of succession after the resignation of "Baba Atom Bomb", Senate Chairman Ghulam Ishaq Khan) and fled to China in exile.
Zia would live a quiet life in exile, and died in 2004 at the age of 79, having never set foot in a courtroom to answer for his crimes or his ultimate responsibility for Kahuta.
Zia began the "Islamization" of Pakistan, a step away from Bhutto's emphasis on socialist economics and secularism, as a way to both solidify the country's national identity and imprint his vision on the country. His government made adultery, blasphemy and fornication crimes, with whippings and amputation becoming punishments, and forced women to cover their heads at all times in public. That his country was allied to the Soviet Union, with its state atheism, seems to have been forgotten by Zia (as well as Moscow) in a Cold War geopolitical calculation.
Becoming president after failing to convince figurehead president Fazal Ilhai Chaudry to stay on for another term, Zia ran the country as a technocracy and finally held non-partisan elections for the Pakistani parliament in 1985 after being forced to by international pressure. However, Zia made all of his decisions retroactively legal before the new body was to first meet and gave the presidency numerous powers that allowed him to effectively ignore the will of parliament.
The coup that overthrew Bhutto had unwittingly exposed Pakistan's nuclear program to the world and international condemnation (except from the Soviet bloc) had led to sanctions on Pakistan that Zia tried hard to lift. The civil wars in Afghanistan and Iran caused Pakistan's budgets to be strained by trains of refugees and occasionally, violence that spilled across the border. This forced Zia and the other generals in his government to slash spending for other programs to pay for increased border controls and programs for the refugees— like the country's budget for their nuclear program. However, he gained some international goodwill by allowing UNSFFI to stage its eastern invasion of Iran out of Pakistan.
Nevertheless, Zia continued to push the nuclear program along, despite numerous complaints by program administrators over the quality of the scientists the state employed, the shoe-string budget and unrealistic timetable that the regime put the program on. It was only a matter of time until disaster struck— but no one would have imagined it would have been as bad as what did occur.
Nothing of the Kahuta Works Laboratory survived the explosion, but it is universally agreed that somehow, a nuclear bomb was armed and detonated. Most theories say it was accidental, the result of overworked and under-trained staff failing to go through proper safety procedures for testing the armament systems while a persistent few say that it was a nuclear strike by a foreign power (usually assumed to be India or Israel) made to look like an accident. Regardless, the explosion and its aftermath killed nearly 50,000 Pakistanis and left thousands injured, homeless or suffering from fallout as the trade winds shifted radiation over to northern India and China.
The explosion shocked Pakistan and the world to the core— anti-nuclear sentiment would gain a strong symbol of the danger and folly of nuclear weapons and the standing of the state and of Zia in his country’s eyes dropped to astonishing lows. Protests began to break out within a week of the disaster, and began to snowball into massive demonstrations in every major city in the country. Tipped off of an impending coup to against him— and fearing a fate similar to Bhutto, who was found guilty of treason by a kangaroo court and executed— Zia resigned the presidency, handing power over to the Speaker of the National Assembly Hamid Nasir Chattha (first in the line of succession after the resignation of "Baba Atom Bomb", Senate Chairman Ghulam Ishaq Khan) and fled to China in exile.
Zia would live a quiet life in exile, and died in 2004 at the age of 79, having never set foot in a courtroom to answer for his crimes or his ultimate responsibility for Kahuta.
Nguyễn Văn Thiệu
Nguyễn Văn Thiệu was the longest-serving leader of South Vietnam and the leader of that country in the latter half of the Vietnam War. The son of a small landowner, Thiệu's family saved up money so that he could attend elite schools run by the French, Vietnam’s colonial rulers. Following the end of World War II, Thiệu joined the Viet Minh, but left after a year as a result of his disagreement with the group’s communist ideology. Soon, Thiệu joined the Vietnamese National Army, part of the French-allied State of Vietnam- something that would strengthen with his conversion to Roman Catholicism following his marriage. Following the partition of Vietnam, Thiệu became an officer in the Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN) and initially allied with President Ngô Đình Diệm, notably helping to stop a coup attempt against Diệm in 1960.
By 1963, however, Thiệu joined the rising tide of military officers who were opposed to Diệm and led the attack on the Gia Long Palace that resulted in Diệm's surrender— although the ousted president quickly fled and was later executed after being recaptured. Thiệu was granted a place in the military juntas that moved into the vacuum and, after several coup attempts led to generals being exiled or imprisoned, he gained prominence. Being named figurehead president, with general Nguyễn Cao Kỳ as the de facto leader, the pairing ended the leadership changes that had become common since Diệm's ouster. Bowing to American pressure to restore constitutional government, Kỳ was named as his vice presidential running mate in a military ticket in the 1967 election that Thiệu won.
Thiệu and Kỳ began feuding soon after they were elected, with Thiệu intent on becoming the undisputed leader of the south. Although the Tet Offensive greatly damaged the confidence in the South Vietnamese government and proved a fatal blow to the American public’s support for the war, Thiệu used the opportunity to remove Kỳ allies from power, a key point in the power struggle that saw Kỳ increasingly slide to irrelevance for the remainder of their term.
Thiệu was adamantly opposed to the peace talks that formed the "October Surprise" that resulted in Hubert Humphrey winning the 1968 election in the United States and repeatedly walked away from the negotiating table throughout late 1968 and 1969. Feeling forced into a corner by the new president's pledge to withdraw from Vietnam, Thiệu was a thorn in Humphrey and Secretary of State Clark Clifford's side throughout the Paris negotiations, adamantly refusing to sign an agreement that treated the National Liberation Front (NLF or Viet Cong) as a legitimate entity as well as refusing to allow North Vietnamese soldiers to remain in their current positions in South Vietnam. Thiệu's intransigence enraged Washington and Humphrey threatened to pull all American troops out of Vietnam, including those that had been planned to remain (mostly military advisers and river patrol teams) and cut off military aid entirely if Thiệu did not sign the agreement reached in Paris. Reluctantly, Thiệu acquiesced and the Paris Peace Agreement was signed in March 1970.
With a promise of American air support and continuing riverine support from Humphrey, Thiệu and South Vietnam were able to repel the Spring Offensive launched by the North in early 1972, but disastrous campaigns to retake parts of South Vietnam and disrupt the north's movements along the Ho Chi Minh Trail left the war in a stalemate. The north could not make meaningful headway while the ARVN's shortcomings and poor leadership meant that the south could not permanently dislodge the north. In this atmosphere, Thiệu cemented his one-man rule, crafting an election law that would disqualify Kỳ and his other major opponents for the 1971 contest. His opponents, widely assuming that Thiệu would rig the elections, boycotted them and Thiệu won as the only candidate on the ballot. Similarly, he would win the 1975 election (the last held in South Vietnam) unopposed.
Military aid to South Vietnam steadily decreased throughout Humphrey's term and several river patrols were similarly withdrawn once the US Navy turned over control of patrol areas to the South Vietnamese. However, Thiệu had extracted a promise from Humphrey that the American president would work to keep Saigon "free" and Humphrey made good on his promise by preventing Congress from taking a meat cleaver to funding for South Vietnam.
Once Humphrey died, however, Thiệu was left without a partner in Washington who could prevent Congress from finally washing its hands of Vietnam. Muskie, Humphrey’s successor, was unable or unwilling to lean on Speaker Carl Albert and Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield enough to prevent congressional Democrats from gutting the budget for American forces in Vietnam, forcing a pullout of almost all remaining American personnel there outside of the American embassy in Saigon by the end of 1976. George Bush, who Thiệu hoped would be more open to restoring vital American support for South Vietnam, had already written South Vietnam off as a lost cause. Bush, even if he had been willing to restore funding, lacked enough support in Congress to take such a drastic step against public opinion regarding Vietnam.
ARVN and the rest of South Vietnam began to crumble in 1976 as Hanoi, sensing weakness, began pushing further and further into South Vietnam. A May 1977 offensive that communist leader Lê Duẩn expected to be the set-up for the final campaign to take Saigon (tentatively scheduled for Tet 1978) turned into the final campaign itself as Southern forces, helped by an increasingly erratic Thiệu, collapsed in confusion and despair. After the final city on the road to Saigon fell in late September, Thiệu tearfully announced his resignation, handing power over to his vice president, Trần Văn Hương. Days later, CIA agents hustled Thiệu and his family onto a plane that took the former president to Taiwan, beginning his exile as Trần announced the South’s unconditional surrender less than a week after assuming the presidency.
Thiệu spent the first years of his exile in the United Kingdom before moving to the United States in the mid-1980s. His final years were spent largely as a recluse, only occasionally making public appearances or speaking out on Vietnamese issues, a large part due to his negative reputation among Vietnamese-Americans. He died of a heart attack in August 2000.
By 1963, however, Thiệu joined the rising tide of military officers who were opposed to Diệm and led the attack on the Gia Long Palace that resulted in Diệm's surrender— although the ousted president quickly fled and was later executed after being recaptured. Thiệu was granted a place in the military juntas that moved into the vacuum and, after several coup attempts led to generals being exiled or imprisoned, he gained prominence. Being named figurehead president, with general Nguyễn Cao Kỳ as the de facto leader, the pairing ended the leadership changes that had become common since Diệm's ouster. Bowing to American pressure to restore constitutional government, Kỳ was named as his vice presidential running mate in a military ticket in the 1967 election that Thiệu won.
Thiệu and Kỳ began feuding soon after they were elected, with Thiệu intent on becoming the undisputed leader of the south. Although the Tet Offensive greatly damaged the confidence in the South Vietnamese government and proved a fatal blow to the American public’s support for the war, Thiệu used the opportunity to remove Kỳ allies from power, a key point in the power struggle that saw Kỳ increasingly slide to irrelevance for the remainder of their term.
Thiệu was adamantly opposed to the peace talks that formed the "October Surprise" that resulted in Hubert Humphrey winning the 1968 election in the United States and repeatedly walked away from the negotiating table throughout late 1968 and 1969. Feeling forced into a corner by the new president's pledge to withdraw from Vietnam, Thiệu was a thorn in Humphrey and Secretary of State Clark Clifford's side throughout the Paris negotiations, adamantly refusing to sign an agreement that treated the National Liberation Front (NLF or Viet Cong) as a legitimate entity as well as refusing to allow North Vietnamese soldiers to remain in their current positions in South Vietnam. Thiệu's intransigence enraged Washington and Humphrey threatened to pull all American troops out of Vietnam, including those that had been planned to remain (mostly military advisers and river patrol teams) and cut off military aid entirely if Thiệu did not sign the agreement reached in Paris. Reluctantly, Thiệu acquiesced and the Paris Peace Agreement was signed in March 1970.
With a promise of American air support and continuing riverine support from Humphrey, Thiệu and South Vietnam were able to repel the Spring Offensive launched by the North in early 1972, but disastrous campaigns to retake parts of South Vietnam and disrupt the north's movements along the Ho Chi Minh Trail left the war in a stalemate. The north could not make meaningful headway while the ARVN's shortcomings and poor leadership meant that the south could not permanently dislodge the north. In this atmosphere, Thiệu cemented his one-man rule, crafting an election law that would disqualify Kỳ and his other major opponents for the 1971 contest. His opponents, widely assuming that Thiệu would rig the elections, boycotted them and Thiệu won as the only candidate on the ballot. Similarly, he would win the 1975 election (the last held in South Vietnam) unopposed.
Military aid to South Vietnam steadily decreased throughout Humphrey's term and several river patrols were similarly withdrawn once the US Navy turned over control of patrol areas to the South Vietnamese. However, Thiệu had extracted a promise from Humphrey that the American president would work to keep Saigon "free" and Humphrey made good on his promise by preventing Congress from taking a meat cleaver to funding for South Vietnam.
Once Humphrey died, however, Thiệu was left without a partner in Washington who could prevent Congress from finally washing its hands of Vietnam. Muskie, Humphrey’s successor, was unable or unwilling to lean on Speaker Carl Albert and Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield enough to prevent congressional Democrats from gutting the budget for American forces in Vietnam, forcing a pullout of almost all remaining American personnel there outside of the American embassy in Saigon by the end of 1976. George Bush, who Thiệu hoped would be more open to restoring vital American support for South Vietnam, had already written South Vietnam off as a lost cause. Bush, even if he had been willing to restore funding, lacked enough support in Congress to take such a drastic step against public opinion regarding Vietnam.
ARVN and the rest of South Vietnam began to crumble in 1976 as Hanoi, sensing weakness, began pushing further and further into South Vietnam. A May 1977 offensive that communist leader Lê Duẩn expected to be the set-up for the final campaign to take Saigon (tentatively scheduled for Tet 1978) turned into the final campaign itself as Southern forces, helped by an increasingly erratic Thiệu, collapsed in confusion and despair. After the final city on the road to Saigon fell in late September, Thiệu tearfully announced his resignation, handing power over to his vice president, Trần Văn Hương. Days later, CIA agents hustled Thiệu and his family onto a plane that took the former president to Taiwan, beginning his exile as Trần announced the South’s unconditional surrender less than a week after assuming the presidency.
Thiệu spent the first years of his exile in the United Kingdom before moving to the United States in the mid-1980s. His final years were spent largely as a recluse, only occasionally making public appearances or speaking out on Vietnamese issues, a large part due to his negative reputation among Vietnamese-Americans. He died of a heart attack in August 2000.
Huh. That's interesting. I wonder if that means India is allied to the US.
Good Guy Roommate got enough of my files transferred over today that I figured I could post this weekend's boxes (in case repairs take me offline most of tomorrow).
Also, do some of the characters in the Thieu entry look kind of wonky to anyone else, or is it just me?
Yep. Humphrey's vocal support of Bangladesh (and India) in the Second Indo-Pakistani War (OTL Bangladesh Liberation War) brought about a switch in allegiances between India (formerly more friendly to the Soviets, now more friendly to the Americans) and Pakistan (vice versa).
Also, do some of the characters in the Thieu entry look kind of wonky to anyone else, or is it just me?
Yep. Humphrey's vocal support of Bangladesh (and India) in the Second Indo-Pakistani War (OTL Bangladesh Liberation War) brought about a switch in allegiances between India (formerly more friendly to the Soviets, now more friendly to the Americans) and Pakistan (vice versa).
How that would mesh with Indira Gandhi's socialistic economics would be interesting.
You mean politically? Well, for the most part most they were ignored due to realpolitik during Indira Gandhi's tenure. It was only after it became clear that China had begun to lean more in favor of the United States than towards Soviet Union (as well as begin to open up its markets to foreign investors), that Washington began to express its annoyance about the Licence Raj.
United States Senate election in California, 1988
The 1988 United States Senate race in California would, like most elections that year, have been overshadowed by the presidential election between incumbent President Bob Dole and his Democratic challenger Walter D. Huddleston if not for one very notable candidate and the attention he brought to it. Incumbent Senator Robert Finch was viewed as vulnerable, especially as the state had begun to lose its status as a solidly Republican state (having gone Democratic three times in the last five elections). Despite hints that Finch would face a serious primary challenger from the right, none emerged after actor and pro-life activist Bob Dornan instead decided to run for (and eventually win) and open House seat.
The Democratic side was another story. Famous Star Trek actor George Takei, who had spent several short stints in local government between the series' cancellation in 1969 and the first Star Trek film's release in 1978, had thrown his hat into the ring shortly after the 1986 midterms finished. Takei's high name recognition, and charisma naturally lent him vaulting into the front of prospective Democratic candidates, deterring all but state Attorney General John Van de Kamp from dropping out as the primary date began. However, Takei’s candidacy had resulted in television stories in California not being able to air episodes of Star Trek that featured Takei's character, Hikaru Sulu under the "equal time" rule after protests from Van de Kamp (and Finch), leaving only 27 of the 79 episodes for Trekkies in the largest state in the country. It also resulted in the fifth film in the series, The King of Infinite Space, being the first not to feature the entire crew from the original series, as filming would take place primarily during the 1988 election season.
However, Takei's sexuality, while an open secret among Trek fans and in Hollywood, was not public knowledge before the campaign. Both Van de Kamp and Finch learned of Takei's homosexuality, but both refused to use it—at least until national Republican strategist Lee Atwater learned of it. Atwater quickly leaked the information to the press, who soon found corroboration from members of the Los Angeles gay community. Despite Takei having made no effort to either publicize or hide his sexuality, the actor soon found himself the target of a national firestorm, drawing homophobic protests at all his campaign events and eventually, having to be granted Secret Service protection after several death threats were lodged against him. His poll numbers against Finch declining and unwilling to keep living under constant armed guard, Takei withdrew and threw his support to Van de Kamp.
Atwater's plan worked by pitting Finch against a weaker candidate. But it failed to count the backlash to the treatment Takei endured after his outing. Even Californians who had little love of gay people were disgusted by the personable actor receiving death threats and Democratic campaign used video of angry crowds screaming homophobic slurs while interspersed with archive clips of Finch's speeches opposing gay rights to associate Finch with hateful bigots. Van de Kamp's mediocre campaigning abilities and Finch’s long-standing reputation in the state allowed the race to be close until election day.
Van de Kamp ended up winning by 180,000 votes in a race where 9.5 million were cast, a relatively slim margin that was undoubtedly helped out by Senator Huddleston's solid victory in the state and overwhelming support for the Democratic ticket from the gay community. Van de Kamp's term would be his only one, with him becoming one of the victims of the Republican wave of 1994. Takei, following the election, would return to acting and occasionally interject himself into Los Angeles politics. He would later return for the final Star Trek film featuring the crew of the original series (The Peace Conspiracy), and become one of the leading spokesmen for the gay rights movement in the United States. After California's legalization of same-sex marriage in 2010, Takei and his boyfriend would be among the first to get married, attended by family, admirers and his surviving crew members from the Enterprise.
The Democratic side was another story. Famous Star Trek actor George Takei, who had spent several short stints in local government between the series' cancellation in 1969 and the first Star Trek film's release in 1978, had thrown his hat into the ring shortly after the 1986 midterms finished. Takei's high name recognition, and charisma naturally lent him vaulting into the front of prospective Democratic candidates, deterring all but state Attorney General John Van de Kamp from dropping out as the primary date began. However, Takei’s candidacy had resulted in television stories in California not being able to air episodes of Star Trek that featured Takei's character, Hikaru Sulu under the "equal time" rule after protests from Van de Kamp (and Finch), leaving only 27 of the 79 episodes for Trekkies in the largest state in the country. It also resulted in the fifth film in the series, The King of Infinite Space, being the first not to feature the entire crew from the original series, as filming would take place primarily during the 1988 election season.
However, Takei's sexuality, while an open secret among Trek fans and in Hollywood, was not public knowledge before the campaign. Both Van de Kamp and Finch learned of Takei's homosexuality, but both refused to use it—at least until national Republican strategist Lee Atwater learned of it. Atwater quickly leaked the information to the press, who soon found corroboration from members of the Los Angeles gay community. Despite Takei having made no effort to either publicize or hide his sexuality, the actor soon found himself the target of a national firestorm, drawing homophobic protests at all his campaign events and eventually, having to be granted Secret Service protection after several death threats were lodged against him. His poll numbers against Finch declining and unwilling to keep living under constant armed guard, Takei withdrew and threw his support to Van de Kamp.
Atwater's plan worked by pitting Finch against a weaker candidate. But it failed to count the backlash to the treatment Takei endured after his outing. Even Californians who had little love of gay people were disgusted by the personable actor receiving death threats and Democratic campaign used video of angry crowds screaming homophobic slurs while interspersed with archive clips of Finch's speeches opposing gay rights to associate Finch with hateful bigots. Van de Kamp's mediocre campaigning abilities and Finch’s long-standing reputation in the state allowed the race to be close until election day.
Van de Kamp ended up winning by 180,000 votes in a race where 9.5 million were cast, a relatively slim margin that was undoubtedly helped out by Senator Huddleston's solid victory in the state and overwhelming support for the Democratic ticket from the gay community. Van de Kamp's term would be his only one, with him becoming one of the victims of the Republican wave of 1994. Takei, following the election, would return to acting and occasionally interject himself into Los Angeles politics. He would later return for the final Star Trek film featuring the crew of the original series (The Peace Conspiracy), and become one of the leading spokesmen for the gay rights movement in the United States. After California's legalization of same-sex marriage in 2010, Takei and his boyfriend would be among the first to get married, attended by family, admirers and his surviving crew members from the Enterprise.
George Wallace
Nearly fifty years after his third-party run in 1968, George Wallace remains the most recent third-party candidate to successfully win a state, taking five in that same contest. Wallace had became nationally known for his combative, populist support for racial segregation in the south, notably for standing in the schoolhouse door to prevent black students from registering at the University of Alabama (before eventually moving aside after President Kennedy nationalized the Alabama National Guard and ordered them to allow the students to register). However, he failed in his strategy to tie the Electoral College and instead handed the presidency to Hubert Humphrey, who similarly had risen to national prominence because of his efforts on racial segregation— to end it. Wallace returned to the Democratic fold and prepared to return to the governor's office in 1970 with an eye towards challenging Humphrey in the primaries in 1972. However, the incumbent governor, Albert Brewer (who had succeeded Wallace's late wife Lurleen, who Wallace had convinced to run in his place in a naked attempt to end-run around term limits, upon her death), refused to bow out for Wallace and a bruising primary fight ensued. Brewer, a moderate who was a shining example of the generation of "New South" politicians coming after the end of Jim Crow, was backed to the hilt by the White House— although secretly, as President Humphrey remained personally unpopular in the state throughout his presidency.
With a combination of support from the national party and black voters who remembered how Wallace had proclaimed "segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever" less than ten years before, Brewer defeated Wallace for the Democratic nomination in spite of particularly nasty and racist attacks by the Wallace campaign. It was a tremendous blow to George Wallace's ambitions that marked the beginning of Wallace's effort (that would last the rest of his life) to rehabilitate his image. He quietly sat out the 1972 campaign, refusing offers to join the Reagan campaign and loyally proclaiming his intention to vote "straight-ballot Democrat" even as Reagan employed the law and order themes that Wallace himself had used four years earlier. Wallace similarly began to make amends with black voters and with Brewer ineligible to run in 1974, Wallace cruised to a victory in both the Democratic primaries and the general election in his triumphant return to the national stage.
Wallace wasted little time in laying the groundwork for getting the Democratic nomination in 1976, emerging as one of the top candidates to challenge Vice President Muskie by mid-1975. However, Humphrey's death changed the dynamics of the race dramatically. Most of the other candidates dropped out to support the new president, with Wallace being the only viable candidate besides Muskie to remain in the race. Despite a strong showing in the south, Wallace's loss was a foregone conclusion. Public musings about another third-party run led to Muskie privately promising Wallace that he would appoint a southern conservative to the next Supreme Court vacancy should he win a term of his own. Satisfied, Wallace announced that he would support the Democratic ticket and returned to Birmingham.
Re-elected in 1978, Wallace's national ambitions were not quite dead and he announced that he would seek the presidency for a fourth (and final) time in 1980. With a crowded field, Wallace initially emerged as one of the top-tier candidates, having strong networks of support still left over from his 1976 run. However, as the campaign progressed and candidates began to fall, Wallace slowly sunk in the polls, although adamantly refusing to withdraw even as he began to fall further and further behind in the delegate count. Finally, with South Dakota Senator George McGovern being the only candidate who could mathematically win the nomination, Wallace announced the end of his campaign and retired from presidential politics.
Retiring after the end of his third gubernatorial term being succeeded by Fob James, who years later would also run in a third-party bid for the White House, Wallace quietly spent the remainder of his life in Montgomery, Alabama. Publicly apologizing for his support for Jim Crow in the last few years of his life, George Wallace died peacefully in his sleep in May 2008, with yet another Alabama governor as the presumptive Republican nominee for president.
With a combination of support from the national party and black voters who remembered how Wallace had proclaimed "segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever" less than ten years before, Brewer defeated Wallace for the Democratic nomination in spite of particularly nasty and racist attacks by the Wallace campaign. It was a tremendous blow to George Wallace's ambitions that marked the beginning of Wallace's effort (that would last the rest of his life) to rehabilitate his image. He quietly sat out the 1972 campaign, refusing offers to join the Reagan campaign and loyally proclaiming his intention to vote "straight-ballot Democrat" even as Reagan employed the law and order themes that Wallace himself had used four years earlier. Wallace similarly began to make amends with black voters and with Brewer ineligible to run in 1974, Wallace cruised to a victory in both the Democratic primaries and the general election in his triumphant return to the national stage.
Wallace wasted little time in laying the groundwork for getting the Democratic nomination in 1976, emerging as one of the top candidates to challenge Vice President Muskie by mid-1975. However, Humphrey's death changed the dynamics of the race dramatically. Most of the other candidates dropped out to support the new president, with Wallace being the only viable candidate besides Muskie to remain in the race. Despite a strong showing in the south, Wallace's loss was a foregone conclusion. Public musings about another third-party run led to Muskie privately promising Wallace that he would appoint a southern conservative to the next Supreme Court vacancy should he win a term of his own. Satisfied, Wallace announced that he would support the Democratic ticket and returned to Birmingham.
Re-elected in 1978, Wallace's national ambitions were not quite dead and he announced that he would seek the presidency for a fourth (and final) time in 1980. With a crowded field, Wallace initially emerged as one of the top-tier candidates, having strong networks of support still left over from his 1976 run. However, as the campaign progressed and candidates began to fall, Wallace slowly sunk in the polls, although adamantly refusing to withdraw even as he began to fall further and further behind in the delegate count. Finally, with South Dakota Senator George McGovern being the only candidate who could mathematically win the nomination, Wallace announced the end of his campaign and retired from presidential politics.
Retiring after the end of his third gubernatorial term being succeeded by Fob James, who years later would also run in a third-party bid for the White House, Wallace quietly spent the remainder of his life in Montgomery, Alabama. Publicly apologizing for his support for Jim Crow in the last few years of his life, George Wallace died peacefully in his sleep in May 2008, with yet another Alabama governor as the presumptive Republican nominee for president.
I'm assuming Wallace lived longer than in OTL because he didn't get shot in this timeline.
That's correct. Quite a bit of the health problems that Wallace had from IOTL 1972 onwards were the result of the assassination attempt & subsequent complications. So without that, he lives longer.
German federal election, 2014
The German federal election of 2014 was the seventh held since the country's reunification in 1989 and surrounded by retrospectives on the country since its East and West were reunited. The dominant alliance of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian affiliate the Christian Social Union (CSU) finally wore out its welcome in 1998 after controlling (West) Germany for almost three-quarters of its post-World War II history, with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) under Gerhard Schröder winning the first elections since the Bern Accords. Schröder and his predecessor Helmut Kohl had begun the task of bringing the poorer and less-developed former German Democratic Republic up to par with the part of the country that had never been under communist rule, as well as finding themselves perhaps the largest economic beneficiary of the end of the Cold War in Europe.
Schröder had annoyed Washington by refusing to include German combat troops in the Congo Stabilization Force, instead only promising supply and logistical support, although the move played well domestically and in Europe. Nonetheless, Schröder's "social liberal" government between the SDP and Free Democratic Party (FDP) begun peeling back the German welfare state in the economic boom times, infuriating SDP voters and resulted in a staggering loss to the CDU/CSU under Friedrich Merz in the 2002 elections. Merz, in contrast to his immediate predecessors, was largely content to allow French President Alain Juppé to be the public face of continental Europe (the USSR notwithstanding) while his government quietly consolidated the reduced welfare state he had inherited and chafing against the European Union's immigration laws. Merz's fiscal prudence, ironically, ended up costing him a third term: his government reopened several dormant nuclear power stations that had been shuttered following the Kahuta Explosion two decades prior after cost-benefit analysis concluded nuclear power to be cheaper than the marked-up fuel the Germans had since been importing from the Soviet Union. Memories of Kahuta and the proximity of many immigrant neighborhoods to several urban plants (a result of lower housing prices) quickly saw the government's support collapse as a SDP-Green Alliance minority government under Frank-Walter Steinmeier took over in 2010.
Steinmeier's government was beset by its minority status as well as the SDP's worry about the Green Alliance's growing support that caused the coalition to be remarkably unstable and unsure of itself. Domestically, Steinmeier's chancellorship was a disappointment to SDP voters who had hoped for a reversal of Schröder and Merz's changes to the welfare state as the chancellor's time was spent reasserting Germany's role on continental Europe that his predecessor had allowed to fade. He also began overhauling Germany's system of integrating refugees that Merz had pared back to the barest acceptable under EU law. Steinmeier was also the last German chancellor to have his government issue marks, as he oversaw Germany's transition to the ecu alongside most other European Union members throughout 2013.
The CDU-CSU coalition had a large lead heading into the 2014 election, but public spats between CDU and CSU politicians and concerns over the coalition's proposal to combat projected higher retirement costs led to the evaporation of the lead as the SDP promised a large investment in its aging transportation infrastructure in a second Steinmeier term. CDU leader and chancellor-candidate Hermann Gröhe, however, incorporated that into the coalition's manifesto and managed, for the most part, to avoid controversy for aping the government's plan.
The CDU-CSU won a convincing plurality of seats, but could not get a majority even with FDP support. Similarly, the SDP-Green Alliance could not get a majority without including either the FDP (which firmly rejected a "traffic light coalition") or the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS), the reinvented ex-ruling party of Eastern Germany, the latter of whom all other four parties had enacted a cordon sanitaire around, owing to concerns about its extremist tendencies and surviving links to the Soviet Union. As such, a grand coalition was formed between the CDU/CSU and SDP, with Gröhe becoming chancellor. The chancellor has so far proved able, but has come under fire for being more socially conservative than many in his party would like and increasing disenchantment with the SDP makes it seem likely that an early election will take place before the Bundestag would normally dissolve in 2018.
Schröder had annoyed Washington by refusing to include German combat troops in the Congo Stabilization Force, instead only promising supply and logistical support, although the move played well domestically and in Europe. Nonetheless, Schröder's "social liberal" government between the SDP and Free Democratic Party (FDP) begun peeling back the German welfare state in the economic boom times, infuriating SDP voters and resulted in a staggering loss to the CDU/CSU under Friedrich Merz in the 2002 elections. Merz, in contrast to his immediate predecessors, was largely content to allow French President Alain Juppé to be the public face of continental Europe (the USSR notwithstanding) while his government quietly consolidated the reduced welfare state he had inherited and chafing against the European Union's immigration laws. Merz's fiscal prudence, ironically, ended up costing him a third term: his government reopened several dormant nuclear power stations that had been shuttered following the Kahuta Explosion two decades prior after cost-benefit analysis concluded nuclear power to be cheaper than the marked-up fuel the Germans had since been importing from the Soviet Union. Memories of Kahuta and the proximity of many immigrant neighborhoods to several urban plants (a result of lower housing prices) quickly saw the government's support collapse as a SDP-Green Alliance minority government under Frank-Walter Steinmeier took over in 2010.
Steinmeier's government was beset by its minority status as well as the SDP's worry about the Green Alliance's growing support that caused the coalition to be remarkably unstable and unsure of itself. Domestically, Steinmeier's chancellorship was a disappointment to SDP voters who had hoped for a reversal of Schröder and Merz's changes to the welfare state as the chancellor's time was spent reasserting Germany's role on continental Europe that his predecessor had allowed to fade. He also began overhauling Germany's system of integrating refugees that Merz had pared back to the barest acceptable under EU law. Steinmeier was also the last German chancellor to have his government issue marks, as he oversaw Germany's transition to the ecu alongside most other European Union members throughout 2013.
The CDU-CSU coalition had a large lead heading into the 2014 election, but public spats between CDU and CSU politicians and concerns over the coalition's proposal to combat projected higher retirement costs led to the evaporation of the lead as the SDP promised a large investment in its aging transportation infrastructure in a second Steinmeier term. CDU leader and chancellor-candidate Hermann Gröhe, however, incorporated that into the coalition's manifesto and managed, for the most part, to avoid controversy for aping the government's plan.
The CDU-CSU won a convincing plurality of seats, but could not get a majority even with FDP support. Similarly, the SDP-Green Alliance could not get a majority without including either the FDP (which firmly rejected a "traffic light coalition") or the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS), the reinvented ex-ruling party of Eastern Germany, the latter of whom all other four parties had enacted a cordon sanitaire around, owing to concerns about its extremist tendencies and surviving links to the Soviet Union. As such, a grand coalition was formed between the CDU/CSU and SDP, with Gröhe becoming chancellor. The chancellor has so far proved able, but has come under fire for being more socially conservative than many in his party would like and increasing disenchantment with the SDP makes it seem likely that an early election will take place before the Bundestag would normally dissolve in 2018.
