Let's assume that the US government's Domestic policies remain the same throughout the 80s, with the exception of the United States Congres shooting down the legislation pertaining the deregulation of the banking/financial sectors during the Reagan era (which in turn lead to the 1987 stock market crash, which spurred the early 90s recession). What would have happend in the United States, Canada and The UK assuming that the early 1990s recession (1990-1993) didn't happen? In Canada and the The UK in particular, the countries neoliberal reforms were starting to show signs of success. The Economies were growing at a steady rate and becoming competitive again while the high levels of unemployment that piqued in both countries in 1982 (The UK at over 13% in the middle of 1982 With Canada's highest rate being over 14% in the the summer of that year) had both decreased to around half their 1982 levels and productivity was increasing again. Before the recession hit, both countries had their annual rates back to 1979 levels and without the recession or a substantial reduction in growth rates, unemployment seemed likely to dip further. Particularly since Canada and the UK didn't go as far as to deregulate their banking sectors during that period as well.
Now this begs the question, how would this effect the governments in power at the time by giving them more material success in the early 90s to boast about?
-In Canada would Brian Mulroney not suffer the erosion of support he had in in the OTL and if so, would a stronger economy and more electoral support for the PC's be enough to keep the Reform Party at bay?. Would the PC's try and enact the OTL Austerity that the Liberals did in 1995 to pay down the debt incurred by financing the massive debt transfer payments from the Trudeau Era, or would they continue the policy of small incremental cuts and try to grow the economy to make the debt more sustainable?
-In the UK, would this help avoid the whole Black Wednesday debacle due to the stronger economy and a more stable Unemployment rate? Would this also reduce the chances of John Major putting forward the exceedingly unpopular VAT on fuel? Would this improve the Conservatives chances of re-election in 1996-1997?
-Would the continuation of a stable economy in the early 90s be enough to get George H.W Bush re-elected in 1992, or was losing to Clinton Inevitable?
-Would this lead to a more conclusive vindication of Mulroney and Thatcher's polices and lead them to be regarded as less divisive figures today?
-How much bigger would the GDP's of the three countries be before the 2008 recession and would unemployment be any lower between 2000-2008 than it was in the OTL?
Now this begs the question, how would this effect the governments in power at the time by giving them more material success in the early 90s to boast about?
-In Canada would Brian Mulroney not suffer the erosion of support he had in in the OTL and if so, would a stronger economy and more electoral support for the PC's be enough to keep the Reform Party at bay?. Would the PC's try and enact the OTL Austerity that the Liberals did in 1995 to pay down the debt incurred by financing the massive debt transfer payments from the Trudeau Era, or would they continue the policy of small incremental cuts and try to grow the economy to make the debt more sustainable?
-In the UK, would this help avoid the whole Black Wednesday debacle due to the stronger economy and a more stable Unemployment rate? Would this also reduce the chances of John Major putting forward the exceedingly unpopular VAT on fuel? Would this improve the Conservatives chances of re-election in 1996-1997?
-Would the continuation of a stable economy in the early 90s be enough to get George H.W Bush re-elected in 1992, or was losing to Clinton Inevitable?
-Would this lead to a more conclusive vindication of Mulroney and Thatcher's polices and lead them to be regarded as less divisive figures today?
-How much bigger would the GDP's of the three countries be before the 2008 recession and would unemployment be any lower between 2000-2008 than it was in the OTL?
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