So, in OTL on the 14th of January 1858 Napoleon III and his wife Empress Eugénie survived an assassination attempt by Italian radical Felice Orsini (and three other accomplices).
What if Napoleon III died instead (and maybe his wife too)?
There have been several threads on this already, for example this one, started by the most esteemed Thande.
The previous threads are however chiefly concerned with the following themes:
1- Will the Empire survive? and who would be the regent?
2- effects on the Franco-Prussian war (which would most probably be butterflied away or in any case play out in a different time and under different circumstances) and German reunification.
3- effects on Franco-British relations (as the bombs were manufactured in Britain, where Orsini had been living for some years).
1. Is very important obviously, 2. is placed in a sufficiently distant future as to require more in-depth analisys, possibly through a full fledged timeline. 3. Is imho easily resolved, as I don't think there is any chance of a war over this issue, at most a temporary worsening of relations.
The reason behind this new thread is to enquire a fourth important question, namely, the effects on the war of 1859 and in general on the process of Italian unification.
In OTL the attempt on the Emperor's life underscored the importance of putting an end to the instability inherent in the fragmentation of Italy and played a role in the shaping of the alliance between France and Sardinia (Plombières Agreement of July 1858). Paradoxically Orsini received some degree of sympathy from the public during his trial, as he managed to present himself as an idealistic patriot, not a murderer.
But if the Emperor had been killed, I think the anti-Italian backlash could have been rather strong, and even if the regent was the Italo-friendly Napoleon Joseph "Plon Plon", I don't see how Cavour can pull off the alliance as he did IOTL, therefore Italian unification might be long delayed, or possibly even butterflied away.
On option is that Italy might ally herself with Prussia against Austria, but at that point France might support Austria, leading to a greater European conflict in the mid-1860's.
Or, maybe there is no anti-Italian backlash and the French (under the regency of the liberal and anticlerical Plon Plon), are even more committed to rid Italy from Austrian forces and to put an end to the temporal power of the Pope?
What do you think about this? This is imho an underused POD, that can lead to a very different continental Europe and would deserve a TL written on it.
EDIT: I would particularly appreciate the input of our French members or members who are particularly knowledgeable on French matters
What if Napoleon III died instead (and maybe his wife too)?
There have been several threads on this already, for example this one, started by the most esteemed Thande.
The previous threads are however chiefly concerned with the following themes:
1- Will the Empire survive? and who would be the regent?
2- effects on the Franco-Prussian war (which would most probably be butterflied away or in any case play out in a different time and under different circumstances) and German reunification.
3- effects on Franco-British relations (as the bombs were manufactured in Britain, where Orsini had been living for some years).
1. Is very important obviously, 2. is placed in a sufficiently distant future as to require more in-depth analisys, possibly through a full fledged timeline. 3. Is imho easily resolved, as I don't think there is any chance of a war over this issue, at most a temporary worsening of relations.
The reason behind this new thread is to enquire a fourth important question, namely, the effects on the war of 1859 and in general on the process of Italian unification.
In OTL the attempt on the Emperor's life underscored the importance of putting an end to the instability inherent in the fragmentation of Italy and played a role in the shaping of the alliance between France and Sardinia (Plombières Agreement of July 1858). Paradoxically Orsini received some degree of sympathy from the public during his trial, as he managed to present himself as an idealistic patriot, not a murderer.
But if the Emperor had been killed, I think the anti-Italian backlash could have been rather strong, and even if the regent was the Italo-friendly Napoleon Joseph "Plon Plon", I don't see how Cavour can pull off the alliance as he did IOTL, therefore Italian unification might be long delayed, or possibly even butterflied away.
On option is that Italy might ally herself with Prussia against Austria, but at that point France might support Austria, leading to a greater European conflict in the mid-1860's.
Or, maybe there is no anti-Italian backlash and the French (under the regency of the liberal and anticlerical Plon Plon), are even more committed to rid Italy from Austrian forces and to put an end to the temporal power of the Pope?
What do you think about this? This is imho an underused POD, that can lead to a very different continental Europe and would deserve a TL written on it.
EDIT: I would particularly appreciate the input of our French members or members who are particularly knowledgeable on French matters
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