WWIII starts in the East...or will it?

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

The question is considering how much hate there is for Japan in the PRC (not entirely undeserved either both here - further incensed here when Japan sunk a Chinese sub after it fired on a Japanese destroyer - and in OTL over WWII) would the PRC want a peace settlement afterwards?

Want? God no.

However, would continuing the war be feasible after a major loss of face like this? Surely once it gets out separatist and anti-government sentiment is going to be through the roof.

Wars unite the populace. Ones where you suffer defeats after telling the populace you're a superpower...probably have the opposite effect.

 

[Count Valerian]

Wars unite the populace. Ones where you suffer defeats after telling the populace you're a superpower...probably have the opposite effect.

I smell censorship, they'll probably try to save face by telling people that the Japanese Navy was destroyed, albeit at a great but 'heroic' cost to the PLAN. And then they'll focus on Korea. Can they win? Good question...what will Russia do? I doubt they'll join the war - too much risk - but if they do and the JMSDF having been bloodied...well if the Pacific Fleet is sent to the bottom the Japanese might make a case to America for Treaty of Portsmouth boundaries with Russia and Japan as part of their war aims.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

I smell censorship, they'll probably try to save face by telling people that the Japanese Navy was destroyed, albeit at a great but 'heroic' cost to the PLAN. And then they'll focus on Korea. Can they win? Good question...what will Russia do? I doubt they'll join the war - too much risk - but if they do and the JMSDF having been bloodied...well if the Pacific Fleet is sent to the bottom the Japanese might make a case to America for Treaty of Portsmouth boundaries with Russia and Japan as part of their war aims.

Regarding China: point taken.

Regarding Russia... OK. I think that fighting Russia alone, the JMSDF could sink the collection of scrap that calls itself the Pacific Fleet (unless Russia conjures up some Backfire bombers that are in halfway decent condition...). Fighting China alone: tougher, but I think they'd win. Fighting both...depends how much damage the JMSDF takes against the PLAN.

 

[Count Valerian]

Regarding China: point taken.

Regarding Russia... OK. I think that fighting Russia alone, the JMSDF could sink the collection of scrap that calls itself the Pacific Fleet (unless Russia conjures up some Backfire bombers that are in halfway decent condition...). Fighting China alone: tougher, but I think they'd win. Fighting both...depends how much damage the JMSDF takes against the PLAN.

Depending where they fight, the JMSDF would be supported by ground-based aircraft from Hokkaido. With that said, I strongly doubt if the Russians will join in. They'll probably try and broker a peace once both the PLAN have been knocked out and the Allies have managed to drive the NKs back to the DMZ (well former DMZ but you get the idea).

 

[Dunning Kruger]

How plausible is this WI? And how will the war end?

I concur with the other poster that put this in the Tom Clancy level of implausibility. There are too many unlikely scenarios that require exaggerated responses. That's not to say it couldnt be a great story. But I would put it in the writer's forum and not worry about plausibility.

WI: 1) China holds naval exercises in August 2015 near Taiwanese territorial waters.

1996 and 2000 there were issues with naval exercises although it does set the state nicely

2) During the exercises, a Japanese fishing vessel sails too close to the exercise area and is hit and sunk by a Chinese SSM.

3) Both Japan and Taiwan (many of the crew were Taiwanese) issue protests to China, and demand reparations.

Just remember that in 1998ish the US bombed the Chinese embassy.

5) Both Japan and Taiwan deny the Chinese accusation, and reiterate their previous demand along with demands for an international investigation.

6) The USA backs Japan and Taiwan, and calls on China to accept international mediation of the matter.

7) China refuses to accept international mediation, stating there is no need to do so in an 'obviously Chinese sphere of interest'.

Standard fare. Nothing to see here.

8) Sensing an opportunity with the rapidly-deteriorating situation to the south, North Korea redeploys three divisions near the DMZ. South Korea responds by placing their forces on alert, while the JSDF and US Forces Japan also go on alert.

Pure Clancy. Why would they do this. They didnt do this when we were bogged down in Iraq but now they want to do this when we are already alerted to the general region?

13) Alarmed, China attempts to pullback from its hawkish stance, but it is too late. A Chinese submarine is spotted by US and Japanese destroyers in Japanese territorial waters, and after several flybys by US and Japanese helicopters the Chinese fire and damages a Japanese destroyer with a torpedo. The Japanese then proceed to sink the Chinese submarine.

14) The Chinese population goes up in flames, and China declares war on Japan. The USA declares its intent to fulfill its defense obligations to its East Asian Allies, whether it be South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan but expresses hope that the conflict may be contained to the Korean peninsula.

Why do the Chinese fire? I mean, subs do this stuff all the time and now the freak out?

As to the Chinese population, the Chinese Communist Party has no interest in starting this war, population be damned. Censorship, police crackdown, whatever. Not happening.

If the do this, the Chinese economy promptly collapses. Civil war emerges the the Chinese government collapses.

 

[adamu_kun]

I think a lot of this does bend the limits of credibility quite a bit. To start with, I really can't see a Japanese fishing boat with lots of Taiwanese on board, unless it was a false flag spy ship sent by Taipei (in which case, why would Japan and the US scream blue murder over it)?

Also, whilst I can see a Chinese surprise attack on Taiwan happening, having US subs in port is stretching it a bit far. If US subs were in port, China would have been kicking up a massive fuss about this on its own, if not already striking out against Taiwan.

That said....

Now: if Japan manages to pull off a major victory against the PLAN on their own, then
1) That's billions in research and development lost for China.
2) Nothing standing between enemy submarines and Chinese shipping lanes.
3) Massive loss of face for China - the navy, their most visible 'superpower' symbol, beaten by an 'inferior' enemy. This could lead to major internal issues - wouldn't take much to spin this as government incompetence.

Would they be able to continue a war in such circumstances?

...this would definitely be the case for China. Along with the whole loss of infrastructure from any direct attacks on the mainland. My guess would be that in order to appear strong and deflect internal discord / hostility to the government, some hardline Party / PLA people will start letting a few nukes fly. And then it's game over in East Asia.

Whilst I think the circumstances of the the Count's crisis leading into war list are pretty unlikely, I do think that a war is quite likely in North Korea under some circumstances, given the apparent loose grip L'il Kim has on things and I wouldn't be surprised if China uses this as smoke to cover an attack on Taiwan whilst the US, Japan and SK are otherwise engaged. Especially if the DPP wins the upcoming Taiwanese election. My take on a descent into war in East Asia would be something like this:

1. The DPP wins the 2016 Legislative Yuan and Presidential election in January
2. After winning the election, the DPP immediately sets about rewriting and pulling out of large chunks of the ECFA
3. China obviously doesn't like this and begins reinforcing costal missile batteries in Xiamen, deploys more PLAAF squadrons to southern China and sends the Liaoning on a leisurely cruise through the Taiwan Strait
4. Meanwhile, in North Korea, a military coup against the Kim regime succeeds in toppling him but is immediately countered by other interest groups from the DPRK military. Limited fighting erupts in the streets in Pyongyang
5. In response to the instability in North Korea, South Korea puts its military on the highest state of alert and readiness. US Forces in Korea follow suit
6. A Taiwanese naval vessel is sunk by a stray missile fired from the PRC as part of a live fire exercise. All hands lost
7. In response to the sinking of the navy vessel (no warnings of live fire exercises were given by the PLA), the DPP government immediately pulls out of all ECFA agreements and suspends all cross strait flights. Any flight on a Chinese airline already en-route and over the Strait are ordered to return to China or be shot down by the ROC Air Force. In China, China Airlines and EVA planes at Chinese airports are impounded, with crew and Taiwanese passengers placed in detention
8. Factional fighting in North Korea slowly spreads across the country and is widely reported as being a 'full scale' civil war by international media, who are not allowed access to the country. A pitched battle is fought within 10km of the DMZ, with some shells falling on the southern side of the border. For the moment, South Korea does not respond
9. China requires all Taiwanese citizens in China to report to their nearest police station for 'security and safety reasons'. In reality their ID is confiscated and they are placed in detention. Taiwan responds in kind; all Chinese nationals in Taiwan are rounded up and placed in detention
10. China demands that Taiwan immediately releases its citizens and allows them to return to China. Taiwan refuses unless China does likewise, which China refuses, stating that the Taiwanese in China are being protected from the danger of any military escalation. This diplomatic impasse continues for a week
11. One military faction in North Korea launches a missile that crashes into Nowon district in northern Seoul. Whilst it does not explode, it is quickly found to be holding a low-yield nuclear warhead
12. Given that the situation in North Korea does not appear to be stabilising and worried that more nukes may fly, the South Korean and US militaries cross the DMZ to stabilise the situation and try to safeguard the South
13. Elements of the PLA begin to cross the Yalu River in the north in 'support' of stabilisation
14. Fighting breaks out between US and SK forces and parts of the North Korean military
15. An urgent summit is begun between the US, China, SK and Japan. It is decided that the Chinese will work to quell the fighting up to a line drawn north of Pyongyang and the SK and US military will meet the Chinese at this line, Japan is to provide logistical support and additional air / missile defence capabilities in the South. This does not prove popular with South Korea, but the additional support is gingerly welcomed. Both sides agree not to interfere in any operations that the other side is undertaking
16. As US and Japanese logistical focus shifts onto supplying forces in the Korean peninsula, China begins to launch missiles targeted at military bases on Taiwan
17. The US and Japan protest this move, but China states that it is an 'essential part' of the regional rebalancing going on and that the US and Japan agreed not to interfere in Chinese operations. In back room negotiations, China implies that it will support some of the North Korean factions against the US and SK if the US does not keep its nose out of Taiwan
18. After the initial missile bombardment of Taiwan, a massive strike is carried out by the PLA to bomb additional military and industrial targets, as well as drawing out surviving elements of the ROC Air Force. The ROC Air Force is rapidly destroyed
19. The PLAN commences operations in the Taiwan Straits, effectively closing it to the ROC Navy. In what was seen by international observers as a stroke of luck for China, the ROC's submarines were sunk very quickly
20. After one week of fighting, US and SK forces reach Pyongyang, which was already half-destroyed by North Korean fighting. It surrenders to the forces without a fight. A couple of days later, China arrives at its side of the pre-agreed line
21. The US, SK and China agree that Korea will be reunified under SK rule and that China will effectively offer a blank cheque for North Korean rebuilding and modernisation, extending any modernisation schemes / infrastructure projects into the South as well. This is given on the understanding that the US leaves Korea within 6 months, as it is no longer required on the peninsula, as SK and China are 'allies'. SK supports the Chinese in this, so the US reluctantly accepts

I think this is more likely to be along the lines of what will happen (with longer timescales, maybe). But what would the result of this be? Would the US really agree to leave Korea and leave it in the Chinese sphere of influence? Would this provoke the US into supporting Taiwan and repelling the Chinese attack (knowing that if it did so, its forces may have to begin to fight the Chinese in Korea, who may now count the SKs as their allies on the peninsula)? Would Taiwan be left to a Chinese invasion - or would the US risk losing China and South Korea (now United Korea) as trading partners over a small island? However, it may well do so, as given that it no longer has a foothold in Korea, it needs to keep Taiwan as an option for its own military projection in the region and counter-balancing of China.

I guess the basic question is, how would the US deal with this dilemma? This would be in early 2016, so before the presidential election, so Obama would still be in the White House.

 

[Count Valerian]

Whilst I think the circumstances of the the Count's crisis leading into war list are pretty unlikely, I do think that a war is quite likely in North Korea under some circumstances, given the apparent loose grip L'il Kim has on things and I wouldn't be surprised if China uses this as smoke to cover an attack on Taiwan whilst the US, Japan and SK are otherwise engaged. Especially if the DPP wins the upcoming Taiwanese election. My take on a descent into war in East Asia would be something like this:

1. The DPP wins the 2016 Legislative Yuan and Presidential election in January
2. After winning the election, the DPP immediately sets about rewriting and pulling out of large chunks of the ECFA
3. China obviously doesn't like this and begins reinforcing costal missile batteries in Xiamen, deploys more PLAAF squadrons to southern China and sends the Liaoning on a leisurely cruise through the Taiwan Strait
4. Meanwhile, in North Korea, a military coup against the Kim regime succeeds in toppling him but is immediately countered by other interest groups from the DPRK military. Limited fighting erupts in the streets in Pyongyang
5. In response to the instability in North Korea, South Korea puts its military on the highest state of alert and readiness. US Forces in Korea follow suit
6. A Taiwanese naval vessel is sunk by a stray missile fired from the PRC as part of a live fire exercise. All hands lost
7. In response to the sinking of the navy vessel (no warnings of live fire exercises were given by the PLA), the DPP government immediately pulls out of all ECFA agreements and suspends all cross strait flights. Any flight on a Chinese airline already en-route and over the Strait are ordered to return to China or be shot down by the ROC Air Force. In China, China Airlines and EVA planes at Chinese airports are impounded, with crew and Taiwanese passengers placed in detention
8. Factional fighting in North Korea slowly spreads across the country and is widely reported as being a 'full scale' civil war by international media, who are not allowed access to the country. A pitched battle is fought within 10km of the DMZ, with some shells falling on the southern side of the border. For the moment, South Korea does not respond
9. China requires all Taiwanese citizens in China to report to their nearest police station for 'security and safety reasons'. In reality their ID is confiscated and they are placed in detention. Taiwan responds in kind; all Chinese nationals in Taiwan are rounded up and placed in detention
10. China demands that Taiwan immediately releases its citizens and allows them to return to China. Taiwan refuses unless China does likewise, which China refuses, stating that the Taiwanese in China are being protected from the danger of any military escalation. This diplomatic impasse continues for a week
11. One military faction in North Korea launches a missile that crashes into Nowon district in northern Seoul. Whilst it does not explode, it is quickly found to be holding a low-yield nuclear warhead
12. Given that the situation in North Korea does not appear to be stabilising and worried that more nukes may fly, the South Korean and US militaries cross the DMZ to stabilise the situation and try to safeguard the South
13. Elements of the PLA begin to cross the Yalu River in the north in 'support' of stabilisation
14. Fighting breaks out between US and SK forces and parts of the North Korean military
15. An urgent summit is begun between the US, China, SK and Japan. It is decided that the Chinese will work to quell the fighting up to a line drawn north of Pyongyang and the SK and US military will meet the Chinese at this line, Japan is to provide logistical support and additional air / missile defence capabilities in the South. This does not prove popular with South Korea, but the additional support is gingerly welcomed. Both sides agree not to interfere in any operations that the other side is undertaking
16. As US and Japanese logistical focus shifts onto supplying forces in the Korean peninsula, China begins to launch missiles targeted at military bases on Taiwan
17. The US and Japan protest this move, but China states that it is an 'essential part' of the regional rebalancing going on and that the US and Japan agreed not to interfere in Chinese operations. In back room negotiations, China implies that it will support some of the North Korean factions against the US and SK if the US does not keep its nose out of Taiwan
18. After the initial missile bombardment of Taiwan, a massive strike is carried out by the PLA to bomb additional military and industrial targets, as well as drawing out surviving elements of the ROC Air Force. The ROC Air Force is rapidly destroyed
19. The PLAN commences operations in the Taiwan Straits, effectively closing it to the ROC Navy. In what was seen by international observers as a stroke of luck for China, the ROC's submarines were sunk very quickly
20. After one week of fighting, US and SK forces reach Pyongyang, which was already half-destroyed by North Korean fighting. It surrenders to the forces without a fight. A couple of days later, China arrives at its side of the pre-agreed line
21. The US, SK and China agree that Korea will be reunified under SK rule and that China will effectively offer a blank cheque for North Korean rebuilding and modernisation, extending any modernisation schemes / infrastructure projects into the South as well. This is given on the understanding that the US leaves Korea within 6 months, as it is no longer required on the peninsula, as SK and China are 'allies'. SK supports the Chinese in this, so the US reluctantly accepts

I think this is more likely to be along the lines of what will happen (with longer timescales, maybe). But what would the result of this be? Would the US really agree to leave Korea and leave it in the Chinese sphere of influence? Would this provoke the US into supporting Taiwan and repelling the Chinese attack (knowing that if it did so, its forces may have to begin to fight the Chinese in Korea, who may now count the SKs as their allies on the peninsula)? Would Taiwan be left to a Chinese invasion - or would the US risk losing China and South Korea (now United Korea) as trading partners over a small island? However, it may well do so, as given that it no longer has a foothold in Korea, it needs to keep Taiwan as an option for its own military projection in the region and counter-balancing of China.

I guess the basic question is, how would the US deal with this dilemma? This would be in early 2016, so before the presidential election, so Obama would still be in the White House.

The Americans out of Korea and Korea under Chinese influence? The Japanese centrists and right wing will go up in flames. Its understandable that they hate us over the events of the past, but letting China make a satellite out of Korea is similar to letting Imperial Germany making protectorates out of the Low Countries. Japan will rearm even faster than it already is, and depending on what happens in Taiwan the US may either cautiously observe for the present or actively-encourage it.

 

[DracoLazarus]

I would suscribe TTL (Eastern War ) if it was written.

 

[RousseauX]

WI: 1) China holds naval exercises in August 2015 near Taiwanese territorial waters.

2) During the exercises, a Japanese fishing vessel sails too close to the exercise area and is hit and sunk by a Chinese SSM.

3) Both Japan and Taiwan (many of the crew were Taiwanese) issue protests to China, and demand reparations.

4) China denies any wrongdoing, and declares that the 'fishing vessel' was actually a spy ship spying on their naval exercises, and that the Taiwanese have colluded with the Japanese on the matter.

5) Both Japan and Taiwan deny the Chinese accusation, and reiterate their previous demand along with demands for an international investigation.

6) The USA backs Japan and Taiwan, and calls on China to accept international mediation of the matter.

7) China refuses to accept international mediation, stating there is no need to do so in an 'obviously Chinese sphere of interest'.

8) Sensing an opportunity with the rapidly-deteriorating situation to the south, North Korea redeploys three divisions near the DMZ. South Korea responds by placing their forces on alert, while the JSDF and US Forces Japan also go on alert.

9) A Taiwanese fighter is shot down by Chinese fighters, the Chinese claiming that it strayed into Chinese airspace.

10) The US government - while neither accepting or rejecting the Chinese statement - demands that an international investigation be held into the matter and the matter of the Japanese fishing boat. However, the US Seventh Fleet puts to sea, and additional forces are dispatched to Taiwan from Guam.

11) Russia - alarmed by the deteriorating situation - attempts to convince China and North Korea to back down.

12) An electrical malfunction along the North Korean side of the DMZ leads to a fire, which in turn sets off a munitions dump, the explosion of which destroys a nearby fuel depot, which in turn starts a major fire. North Korean troops in the area believe it to be an attack, and open fire with artillery on the South Korean troops on the other side of the line. The South Koreans return fire, and this leads to the full outbreak of war.

13) Alarmed, China attempts to pullback from its hawkish stance, but it is too late. A Chinese submarine is spotted by US and Japanese destroyers in Japanese territorial waters, and after several flybys by US and Japanese helicopters the Chinese fire and damages a Japanese destroyer with a torpedo. The Japanese then proceed to sink the Chinese submarine.

14) The Chinese population goes up in flames, and China declares war on Japan. The USA declares its intent to fulfill its defense obligations to its East Asian Allies, whether it be South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan but expresses hope that the conflict may be contained to the Korean peninsula.

15) Russia declares itself neutral, but the Russian Pacific Fleet is put on alert. Alarmed, Japan reinforces its forces on Hokkaido, heightening tensions even further.

16) A preemptive Chinese attack on Taiwan sees most of the Taiwanese navy destroyed...including a pair of US submarines docked at Taipei. President Obama authorizes retaliatory strikes against the Chinese mainland, and orders long-term war plans to be made against the PRC.

How plausible is this WI? And how will the war end?

This is a pretty good WI for a CoD style video game but that's pretty it.

There's no reason why China or Taiwan would start pushing each other's airspace in the event of a crisis with Japan, nor would China escalate against Japan for no reason.

Also there's no way China goes ahead and sinks US submarines in Taiwan because that's just dumb.

It's one of those scenarios where you have to assume one side is blindingly aggressive contrary to their real life behavior.

 

[mlp]

• First assumption of this WI: China is an evil country who only seeks to infiltrate and destroy its archenemy, the United States. It has no consideration whatsoever for its dependence on foreign trade.
• Second assumption of this WI: North Korea, despite its crippled economy and further crippled military, obviously believes it is still possible to invade and occupy the south.
• Third assumption of this WI: Despite the fact that both sides have prepared for this war for more than six decades and thus there should be absolutely no such occurrence, and despite the fact that a majority of the "fuel" North Korea has is actually water(fuel is sold in the black market), there will be an explosion that causes the situation along the DMZ.
• Fourth assumption of this WI: A Chinese submarine, without orders from the ground base, will absolutely want to attack fighters and helicopters that passes by and lead to the outbreak of a war when there is no need to.

Other than that, I'm sure everything is quite fine with this WI.

 

[RousseauX]

For China, they intend to finally settle the Taiwanese question, and if possible de-fang Japan for good (Japan did sink a Chinese sub, though this was an act of self-defense), though they might settle for status quo ante bellum against Japan depending on how the war goes in Korea.

Here's the problem: China doesn't -want- to "finally" settle the Taiwanese question by force unless it's forced to because if the US intervenes the probability of a successful invasion is approximately zero and an invasion would destroy much of the economic value of the island. Nor is the PRC willing to stick it's neck out for North Korea because it has became obvious to the Chinese leadership over the last decade or so that NK is unstable and it's value as a buffer state has expired. Nor does the PRC have a way of "de-fang Japan for good" because it doesn't have the means to force a settlement on Japan that doesn't want one since the PLAN can't invade Japan.

A lot of those scenarios seems to not take into account actual real life East Asian politics and basically starts off wanting one side to lose so it has to stack the odds against them as much as possible. It's like someone writes a 1914 scenario where France blows up the British fleet or something thus leading to an Anglo-German alliance to defeat the French and the Russians.

 

[RousseauX]

The Americans out of Korea and Korea under Chinese influence? The Japanese centrists and right wing will go up in flames. Its understandable that they hate us over the events of the past, but letting China make a satellite out of Korea is similar to letting Imperial Germany making protectorates out of the Low Countries. Japan will rearm even faster than it already is, and depending on what happens in Taiwan the US may either cautiously observe for the present or actively-encourage it.

Yeah, japan will rearm and it's pretty inevitable

But Korea hates Japan a lot more than it hates china largely because the japanese refuse to do the rational geopolitical thing and come clean about their WW2 records already.

 

[Count Valerian]

Yeah, japan will rearm and it's pretty inevitable

But Korea hates Japan a lot more than it hates china largely because the japanese refuse to do the rational geopolitical thing and come clean about their WW2 records already.

An unfortunate truth, I'm afraid.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

Here's the problem: China doesn't -want- to "finally" settle the Taiwanese question by force unless it's forced to because if the US intervenes the probability of a successful invasion is approximately zero and an invasion would destroy much of the economic value of the island. Nor is the PRC willing to stick it's neck out for North Korea because it has became obvious to the Chinese leadership over the last decade or so that NK is unstable and it's value as a buffer state has expired. Nor does the PRC have a way of "de-fang Japan for good" because it doesn't have the means to force a settlement on Japan that doesn't want one since the PLAN can't invade Japan.

That's a point. As is the mention of China not wanting to damage its economic growth.

However, I do think that the idea of China becoming more aggressive is possible if an economic meltdown occurred. Consider: economic meltdown means major internal dissatisfaction. And what's the one way that various rulers throughout the ages have used to get people firmly united behind the party line once again?

Starting a war. I see a scenario where China begins suffering economically, the people are unhappy, so the CCP - staring loss of power in the face - decides to take a huge gamble by, say, invading Taiwan and hoping that the cause of finally reuniting the Middle Kingdom (in the face of hostility from the West and Japan) will weld the people behind them.

Of course, said people will turn to rioting and such the moment a large-scale defeat happens...

 

[RousseauX]

That's a point. As is the mention of China not wanting to damage its economic growth.

However, I do think that the idea of China becoming more aggressive is possible if an economic meltdown occurred. Consider: economic meltdown means major internal dissatisfaction. And what's the one way that various rulers throughout the ages have used to get people firmly united behind the party line once again?

Starting a war. I see a scenario where China begins suffering economically, the people are unhappy, so the CCP - staring loss of power in the face - decides to take a huge gamble by, say, invading Taiwan and hoping that the cause of finally reuniting the Middle Kingdom (in the face of hostility from the West and Japan) will weld the people behind them.

Of course, said people will turn to rioting and such the moment a large-scale defeat happens...

So the Falklands strategy except why would the PRC invade Taiwan if it knows it's gonna lose?

I mean, this isn't Falklands 1980s when it wasn't all that clear if the UK would defend the islands, the PRC knows that the US will defend Taiwan.

So what are you gonna choose? Orderly transition of power with maybe a 50/50 chance of you staying political powerful or invade Taiwan with 1% chance of a success and 99% chance of being kicked out of power and possibly on the wrong end of a loose dangling from a lamppost?

 

[mlp]

However, I do think that the idea of China becoming more aggressive is possible if an economic meltdown occurred. Consider: economic meltdown means major internal dissatisfaction. And what's the one way that various rulers throughout the ages have used to get people firmly united behind the party line once again?

This is a good point, but risking a Sino-American war ver.2 seems too big a risk for letting out a bit of domestic steam.

 

[RousseauX]

This is a good point, but risking a Sino-American war ver.2 seems too big a risk for letting out a bit of domestic steam.

The better strategy would be to push the Philippines or Japan over an island or something, basically do something that has a much lower % chance of the US intervening.

 

[mlp]

The better strategy would be to push the Philippines or Japan over an island or something, basically do something that has a much lower % chance of the US intervening.

Such a thing may not even be necessary. Seeing how big the anti-Japanese protests were during the Diaoyudao crisis, the Japanese saying a bit of things may be the only things necessary.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

That does seem a more feasible approach, alright. Or pushing Vietnam harder - OK, Washington and Hanoi are getting more friendly these days, but it's still a ways off from America definitely getting involved in any conflict between the two.

Mind you, the Chinese may remember the last time they picked a major fight with Vietnam...

 

[mlp]

That does seem a more feasible approach, alright. Or pushing Vietnam harder - OK, Washington and Hanoi are getting more friendly these days, but it's still a ways off from America definitely getting involved in any conflict between the two.

Mind you, the Chinese may remember the last time they picked a major fight with Vietnam...

It's surprising actually that everybody thinks China lost the war. For what my friend says(as his relatives were in the war), here's a simple proof.
Before the war there was a gate that stood as the traditional border between Beijing and Hanoi, after the war that gate was deep in Chinese territory.
Furthermore the Chinese were apparently quite close to Hanoi. They only retreated because the Vietnamese agreed to pull out of Cambodjia.