Fearless Leader
Donor
Hey all, the thread about "My country's dream airplane" got me thinking about the Canadian Wonderplane: The Avro Arrow. Having looked into the subject I'm pretty confident that Diefenbaker's decision to cancel the Avro Arrow was actually one of his better ones. However, the Avro Arrow did come perilously close to being produced and ordered for the RCAF. Without Diefenbaker, it is reasonably possible that the Avro Arrow program would be brought to fruition.
To what effect? Well...
POD Canadian Federal Election: During a rally for the Liberal Party in Maple Leaf Gardens in Toronto, a young protester attempts to storm onstage during a speech by the incumbent PM, Louis St. Laurent. In OTL he managed to do so and proceeded to tear a poster on stage before security guards proceeded to move in and escort him off the stage. Before they could do that, however, he tripped and fell down a flight of stairs and struck his head on the cement floor giving himself a concussion. In OTL the incident severely damaged the Liberal reputation, enhancing their reputation as an arrogant party. However in TTL one of the Maple Leaf Gardens’ security guards is paying more attention and intercepts the boy before he can run on stage. Laurent continues his speech without incident.
The election of 1957
Come election day, the Liberals are doing marginally better than they were in OTL. Despite the best efforts of Diefenbaker and the Progressive Conservatives, the Liberals find their mandate renewed. However, everything is not just peachy for the Liberals, the election saw their strong 169 seat majority government of 1953 reduced to a paltry 112 seats. Only after negotiating with the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (a social democratic party) and securing the support of its 25 members of parliament did the Liberal Party have enough seats to form a government, controlling 51 percent of the House of Commons.
The 23rd Canadian Parliament
Makeup:
*Liberals: 112 seats
Progressive Conservative Party: 109 seats
*Co-operative Commonwealth Federation: 25 seats
Social Credit Party: 19 seats
Needed for a majority: 133
Liberal/CCF government: 112+25=137
Total Seats: 265
The 23rd Parliament of TTL is not substantially different than OTL, the Liberals gain a mere 8 seats at the expense of mainly independent candidates and the Progressive Conservatives. The Liberals are forced to cooperate with the CCF to form a government making this the first Minority government since the 16th Canadian Parliament that governed during the late 1920’s.
Now, Minority governments in Canada do not tend to last very long, they tend to average around 2 years. Louis St. Laurent is getting pretty old by 1957 so let’s say that by 1959, Louis decides to call it quits and retires. Recognizing that the Liberal Party desperately needs new blood, Laurent like his predecessor Mackenzie King, persuades the Liberal Party to nominate none other than Lester B. Pearson as the next leader of the Liberal Party and by extension, the next Prime Minister of Canada.
After Pearson takes power, the coalition between the Liberals and the CCF begins to fall apart. Pressure mounts for Pearson to call an election, and he does in 1969 officially bringing about an end to the 23rd Canadian parliament. All told, this parliament does very little other than maintain the programs of the previous Liberal government. The influence of the CCF does however, result in Laurent’s social programs receiving better funding. What it does do, and key to the TL is that it DOES NOT cancel the Avro Arrow program because this Liberal Party feels no need to cut back on its own rampant spending. It does however agree to sign the NORAD treaty but decides to keep the Arrow instead of getting Bomarc missiles.
The Election of 1959
The election of 1959 sees the Liberal party in much better shape than it’s OTL analogue (the election of 1958), and under the new leadership of Nobel Peace Prize winner Lester B. Pearson. The Conservatives are hoping to usurp the Liberals after 24 years of successive governments and maintain John Diefenbaker as their leader. The CCF (read: Social Democrats) are also doing much better under Major James Coldwell.
Now economically, Canada’s not doing so hot, without the Conservative government of John Diefenbaker many of the economic problems that sparked the election of 1958 are not only still present, but are probably beginning to manifest themselves. Diefenbaker’s going to be all over the Liberals on this to the point of making it sound like a broken record. Everything taken into account, the PC’s seem to be set to win this election. HOWEVER, for the sake of this scenario we’ll throw another factor into play. Diefenbaker, a fairly anti-catholic individual, and a little sore over his loss in 1957, makes an anti-catholic statement something along the lines of “Maybe we’ll pick up a few seats in Quebec now that the papists don’t have Papa Louis to vote for.” This statement makes him incredibly un-popular with the Catholic population of Canada and gives Pearson something to campaign about.
The results of the 1959 election are strikingly similar to the last election. The Liberals sweep Quebec and manage to limit their losses in Ontario and the rest of the country. The Progressive Conservative party manages to maintain 107 seats despite Diefenbaker’s anti-catholic remarks. Thus the Liberal/CCF coalition remains in power with the CCF holding the balance of power once again.
The 24th Canadian Parliament
Makeup:
*Liberal Party: 109 seats
Progressive Conservatives: 107 seats
*CCF: 28 seats
Social Credit: 21
Seats needed for a majority: 113
Liberal/CCF government: 109+28=137
Total Seats: 265
Anyhow the 24th Canadian parliament is pretty much just a repeat of its predecessor. The CCF is a good deal more moderate than OTL’s NDP (non Canadians read: moderate social democrats) so don’t expect anything too crazy. Hospital insurance (the precursor to the Canada Health Care act) will probably be expanded to appease the CCF along with pensions, welfare, and other social programs. The deficit will continue to rise as spending for these programs augments spending for other ongoing programs such as the Avro Arrow. Now, for the sake of the scenario, let’s assume that this 24th Canadian parliament manages to successfully govern Canada for about 3 years (the tenure of OTL Pearson’s first minority government) lasting until 1962.
Now this is important because by lasting to 1962, this ensures the existence of the Avro Arrow...
The Avro Arrow
Now contrary to popular belief, the Avro Arrow is NOT going to be the best thing that ever happened to Canada. In fact a fair amount of evidence suggests that it would be a massive white elephant for the Canadian military. HOWEVER this is not to suggest that it wouldn’t be built, only that it wouldn’t prove to be very useful in the long run. The Arrow’s really too expensive to be marketed successfully as an export fighter and will only equip the RCAF in TTL. The only thing that will prove to be an export success will be the Arrow’s powerplant the Orenda PS 13 Iroquois engine which will be purchased by France.
The total number of Arrows produced in TTL will be somewhere around the 150 mark with the RCAF downsizing to accommodate the massive costs of the Arrow units. Attempts to market the Avro Arrow to foreign markets prove to be failures as the few countries that could afford such a craft would much rather buy cheaper American planes or produce their own.
Upon entering service, the Avro Arrow is one of the most advanced aircraft in the world. It’s capable of just over Mach 2.5, uses and advanced fly-by-wire system, as well as housing it’s armament of 8 Falcon missiles in an internal bay. It is considered by many to have no equal amongst the Warsaw pact’s arsenal of fighters. Due to this, work on what would become the MiG 25 is sped up resulting in it entering service slightly earlier than OTL.
Unfortunately, for many Canadians the Avro Arrow is seen to be a massive waste of money. Soon after units begin to re-equip the RCAF reports begin to surface over massive cost overruns as well as corruption within the system. This coupled with the Arrow’s failure to attract lucrative export contracts prove to be key factors in the defeat of Pearson’s Liberal government in the upcoming election.
As a side note, the Sparrow II program intended for the Arrow, is cancelled slightly later than OTL. This is due to the fact that the concept of a true fire and forget missile is somewhat beyond early 1960’s technology.
The Election of 1962:
1962 will prove to be the magic number for the Progressive Conservative Party. The looming white elephant of the Avro Arrow, coupled with a severe economic downturn, corruption within the government, and the downsizing of the Canadian air-force due to the Avro Arrow, gives the Conservatives a winning combination in 1962. Yet another factor would be the replacement of John Diefenbaker with the equally fiery but less controversial British Columbian Edmund Davie Fulton.
Fulton’s aggressive campaign is matched by a Liberal campaign that is lack-lustre at best. Pearson’s platform mainly consists of lauding his government’s ability to co-operate, put through social programs, and maintain a strong defence industry. However Fulton is quick to point out that Canada’s “Defence Industry” is nothing more than a paper tiger and a white elephant. His statement that “The military’s primary goal is to protect our nation not make us feel better about ourselves” coupled with his fiscally conservative platform wins him widespread support.
This is also coupled with the Liberal stronghold of Quebec being split with the resurgent Quebec wing of the Social Credit party. Despite the party’s split, and prompt decline in Western Canada, the Social Credit party in Quebec quickly proves itself to be alive and kicking. Meanwhile the CCF suffers a decisive defeat and ends up losing over half of its seats.
In the end the Liberal/CCF parties are decisively defeated. The Progressive Conservative Party, under E. Davie Fulton have won their first majority government since 1935 ending 27 years of successive Liberal governments.
---------------------
So yeah, that's draft 1
It's pretty late at night over here so I'd wager that draft 2 will be forthcoming shortly.
Anyone care to comment? Speculate?
To what effect? Well...
For want of a Security Guard an Airplane was lost
An Avro Arrow TL
An Avro Arrow TL
POD Canadian Federal Election: During a rally for the Liberal Party in Maple Leaf Gardens in Toronto, a young protester attempts to storm onstage during a speech by the incumbent PM, Louis St. Laurent. In OTL he managed to do so and proceeded to tear a poster on stage before security guards proceeded to move in and escort him off the stage. Before they could do that, however, he tripped and fell down a flight of stairs and struck his head on the cement floor giving himself a concussion. In OTL the incident severely damaged the Liberal reputation, enhancing their reputation as an arrogant party. However in TTL one of the Maple Leaf Gardens’ security guards is paying more attention and intercepts the boy before he can run on stage. Laurent continues his speech without incident.
The election of 1957
Come election day, the Liberals are doing marginally better than they were in OTL. Despite the best efforts of Diefenbaker and the Progressive Conservatives, the Liberals find their mandate renewed. However, everything is not just peachy for the Liberals, the election saw their strong 169 seat majority government of 1953 reduced to a paltry 112 seats. Only after negotiating with the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (a social democratic party) and securing the support of its 25 members of parliament did the Liberal Party have enough seats to form a government, controlling 51 percent of the House of Commons.
The 23rd Canadian Parliament
Makeup:
*Liberals: 112 seats
Progressive Conservative Party: 109 seats
*Co-operative Commonwealth Federation: 25 seats
Social Credit Party: 19 seats
Needed for a majority: 133
Liberal/CCF government: 112+25=137
Total Seats: 265
The 23rd Parliament of TTL is not substantially different than OTL, the Liberals gain a mere 8 seats at the expense of mainly independent candidates and the Progressive Conservatives. The Liberals are forced to cooperate with the CCF to form a government making this the first Minority government since the 16th Canadian Parliament that governed during the late 1920’s.
Now, Minority governments in Canada do not tend to last very long, they tend to average around 2 years. Louis St. Laurent is getting pretty old by 1957 so let’s say that by 1959, Louis decides to call it quits and retires. Recognizing that the Liberal Party desperately needs new blood, Laurent like his predecessor Mackenzie King, persuades the Liberal Party to nominate none other than Lester B. Pearson as the next leader of the Liberal Party and by extension, the next Prime Minister of Canada.
After Pearson takes power, the coalition between the Liberals and the CCF begins to fall apart. Pressure mounts for Pearson to call an election, and he does in 1969 officially bringing about an end to the 23rd Canadian parliament. All told, this parliament does very little other than maintain the programs of the previous Liberal government. The influence of the CCF does however, result in Laurent’s social programs receiving better funding. What it does do, and key to the TL is that it DOES NOT cancel the Avro Arrow program because this Liberal Party feels no need to cut back on its own rampant spending. It does however agree to sign the NORAD treaty but decides to keep the Arrow instead of getting Bomarc missiles.
The Election of 1959
The election of 1959 sees the Liberal party in much better shape than it’s OTL analogue (the election of 1958), and under the new leadership of Nobel Peace Prize winner Lester B. Pearson. The Conservatives are hoping to usurp the Liberals after 24 years of successive governments and maintain John Diefenbaker as their leader. The CCF (read: Social Democrats) are also doing much better under Major James Coldwell.
Now economically, Canada’s not doing so hot, without the Conservative government of John Diefenbaker many of the economic problems that sparked the election of 1958 are not only still present, but are probably beginning to manifest themselves. Diefenbaker’s going to be all over the Liberals on this to the point of making it sound like a broken record. Everything taken into account, the PC’s seem to be set to win this election. HOWEVER, for the sake of this scenario we’ll throw another factor into play. Diefenbaker, a fairly anti-catholic individual, and a little sore over his loss in 1957, makes an anti-catholic statement something along the lines of “Maybe we’ll pick up a few seats in Quebec now that the papists don’t have Papa Louis to vote for.” This statement makes him incredibly un-popular with the Catholic population of Canada and gives Pearson something to campaign about.
The results of the 1959 election are strikingly similar to the last election. The Liberals sweep Quebec and manage to limit their losses in Ontario and the rest of the country. The Progressive Conservative party manages to maintain 107 seats despite Diefenbaker’s anti-catholic remarks. Thus the Liberal/CCF coalition remains in power with the CCF holding the balance of power once again.
The 24th Canadian Parliament
Makeup:
*Liberal Party: 109 seats
Progressive Conservatives: 107 seats
*CCF: 28 seats
Social Credit: 21
Seats needed for a majority: 113
Liberal/CCF government: 109+28=137
Total Seats: 265
Anyhow the 24th Canadian parliament is pretty much just a repeat of its predecessor. The CCF is a good deal more moderate than OTL’s NDP (non Canadians read: moderate social democrats) so don’t expect anything too crazy. Hospital insurance (the precursor to the Canada Health Care act) will probably be expanded to appease the CCF along with pensions, welfare, and other social programs. The deficit will continue to rise as spending for these programs augments spending for other ongoing programs such as the Avro Arrow. Now, for the sake of the scenario, let’s assume that this 24th Canadian parliament manages to successfully govern Canada for about 3 years (the tenure of OTL Pearson’s first minority government) lasting until 1962.
Now this is important because by lasting to 1962, this ensures the existence of the Avro Arrow...
The Avro Arrow
Now contrary to popular belief, the Avro Arrow is NOT going to be the best thing that ever happened to Canada. In fact a fair amount of evidence suggests that it would be a massive white elephant for the Canadian military. HOWEVER this is not to suggest that it wouldn’t be built, only that it wouldn’t prove to be very useful in the long run. The Arrow’s really too expensive to be marketed successfully as an export fighter and will only equip the RCAF in TTL. The only thing that will prove to be an export success will be the Arrow’s powerplant the Orenda PS 13 Iroquois engine which will be purchased by France.
The total number of Arrows produced in TTL will be somewhere around the 150 mark with the RCAF downsizing to accommodate the massive costs of the Arrow units. Attempts to market the Avro Arrow to foreign markets prove to be failures as the few countries that could afford such a craft would much rather buy cheaper American planes or produce their own.
Upon entering service, the Avro Arrow is one of the most advanced aircraft in the world. It’s capable of just over Mach 2.5, uses and advanced fly-by-wire system, as well as housing it’s armament of 8 Falcon missiles in an internal bay. It is considered by many to have no equal amongst the Warsaw pact’s arsenal of fighters. Due to this, work on what would become the MiG 25 is sped up resulting in it entering service slightly earlier than OTL.
Unfortunately, for many Canadians the Avro Arrow is seen to be a massive waste of money. Soon after units begin to re-equip the RCAF reports begin to surface over massive cost overruns as well as corruption within the system. This coupled with the Arrow’s failure to attract lucrative export contracts prove to be key factors in the defeat of Pearson’s Liberal government in the upcoming election.
As a side note, the Sparrow II program intended for the Arrow, is cancelled slightly later than OTL. This is due to the fact that the concept of a true fire and forget missile is somewhat beyond early 1960’s technology.
The Election of 1962:
1962 will prove to be the magic number for the Progressive Conservative Party. The looming white elephant of the Avro Arrow, coupled with a severe economic downturn, corruption within the government, and the downsizing of the Canadian air-force due to the Avro Arrow, gives the Conservatives a winning combination in 1962. Yet another factor would be the replacement of John Diefenbaker with the equally fiery but less controversial British Columbian Edmund Davie Fulton.
Fulton’s aggressive campaign is matched by a Liberal campaign that is lack-lustre at best. Pearson’s platform mainly consists of lauding his government’s ability to co-operate, put through social programs, and maintain a strong defence industry. However Fulton is quick to point out that Canada’s “Defence Industry” is nothing more than a paper tiger and a white elephant. His statement that “The military’s primary goal is to protect our nation not make us feel better about ourselves” coupled with his fiscally conservative platform wins him widespread support.
This is also coupled with the Liberal stronghold of Quebec being split with the resurgent Quebec wing of the Social Credit party. Despite the party’s split, and prompt decline in Western Canada, the Social Credit party in Quebec quickly proves itself to be alive and kicking. Meanwhile the CCF suffers a decisive defeat and ends up losing over half of its seats.
In the end the Liberal/CCF parties are decisively defeated. The Progressive Conservative Party, under E. Davie Fulton have won their first majority government since 1935 ending 27 years of successive Liberal governments.
---------------------
So yeah, that's draft 1
It's pretty late at night over here so I'd wager that draft 2 will be forthcoming shortly.
Anyone care to comment? Speculate?