Would would it have taken for the Italians to ally with Britain and France against Hitler? Would Mussolini have to be removed? Would the Allies have to offer considerable money and territory? How well might the Italian military do against the Germans?
Italy joins the Allies 1940
- Thread starter JimmyJimJam
- Start date
I don't think it would be an impossibility as such, but it would be tough to orchestrate! Mussolini was a bit pissed at the Allies, first because he saw their action regarding the Austrian crisis (the first one, Dolfuss' murder etc etc) as treacherous, and because the Allies tried to stop essential coal being delivered from Germany to Italy. Mussolini might even still see France and Britain as backstabbing scoundrels because of WWI (Italy being screwed somewhat, at least in their own eyes). I don't think that many of the Fascisti looked all that fondly upon the Allies (WWI wasn't that far away in the Fascitsi mindset).JimmyJimJam said:
More importantly what would Italy gain by sideing with Britain and France?? Teritorial demands would probably be essential, but who would give up land? France? I doubt it (them being French after all
). Britain, yes, perhaps a strip here and a bit there! Money? Perhaps investments in Italian industry, but access to resources would be more likely!Militarily the Italians would have done fine, as long as they didn't have to go on the offensive against big brother Germany. The border towards Germany was well and easily defended! As discussed elsewhere, the absence of an Italian threat would have freed British resources to deal with the Japanese out East!
Have a look at my Italia Eterna TL* where I have equipped Mussolini with a brain!
Best regards!
- Mr. Bluenote.
*) I'm actually working on 1944 at present, believe it or not!
Mussolini kicks off before invading Ethiopia. Ciano (his son in law) wins the power struggle, pissing off Badoglio, et al. Ciano didn't like Hitler, so no Italian support for nationalist Spain, and Italy pulls out of the Axis over the Molotov-Ribbontrop pact. Italy being neutral to friendly, the French can send some seriously second rate divisions to the Italian border and send the Alpine troops to the Luxemburg border. History takes a very different twist. With an allied Spain and an at least neutral Italy, France is much better off.
If I was Italy and some of my people wanted a decent colony, I'd go with Madagascar. It was big, it was an island, it had various mineral resources, it had different tropical and subtropical and montane climates for growing every thing from dates to chocolate, and it had malarial districts to which I could send people I didn't like.
If I was Italy and some of my people wanted a decent colony, I'd go with Madagascar. It was big, it was an island, it had various mineral resources, it had different tropical and subtropical and montane climates for growing every thing from dates to chocolate, and it had malarial districts to which I could send people I didn't like.
Yeah, good PoD, but the thread states 1940 as the divergence, Willis!wkwillis said:
Sure, but would the French give it up?wkwillis said:
Regards and all!
- Bluenote.
Bluenote
Nope, the thread is says what if Italy joins the Allies in 1940. POD is unstated.
A POD in 1940 is possible. There was that Jewish wife of an Italian admiral. She went to the camps and the Germans refused to let her out. The Italian navy was unhappy. Perhaps she bribes a guard and escapes with his help. It would be very embarassing for Mussolini. Perhaps embarassing enough for him to fall. Then no collapse of France in 1940, and Italy may wind up joining the Allies after Hitler screws up the attack on France by going through Luxemburg into the troops that were on the Italian border in OTL.
With half Belgium and the important tenth of the Netherlands on the Allied side of the line, Germany is not in a good situation. There is no Med front at all.
Would France promise Madagascar to Italy? Sure. France had many, many, colonies. Would France give Madagascar to Italy? If I was Italian, I would get Madagascar before I attacked Germany. If the French even wanted the Italians to attack Germany. The French might be satisfied to just get the excellant Italian fighter aircraft.
Nope, the thread is says what if Italy joins the Allies in 1940. POD is unstated.
A POD in 1940 is possible. There was that Jewish wife of an Italian admiral. She went to the camps and the Germans refused to let her out. The Italian navy was unhappy. Perhaps she bribes a guard and escapes with his help. It would be very embarassing for Mussolini. Perhaps embarassing enough for him to fall. Then no collapse of France in 1940, and Italy may wind up joining the Allies after Hitler screws up the attack on France by going through Luxemburg into the troops that were on the Italian border in OTL.
With half Belgium and the important tenth of the Netherlands on the Allied side of the line, Germany is not in a good situation. There is no Med front at all.
Would France promise Madagascar to Italy? Sure. France had many, many, colonies. Would France give Madagascar to Italy? If I was Italian, I would get Madagascar before I attacked Germany. If the French even wanted the Italians to attack Germany. The French might be satisfied to just get the excellant Italian fighter aircraft.
Ah, well, yeeees....wkwillis said:
Still, without 1940 as the actual PoD we could go back to the Crusades - no fun, I'd say! Really?! Haven't heard about that one, Willis! How in God's name did the wife of an Italian Admiral end up in a camp?wkwillis said:
Haha, yes, they had many colonies, but guarded them enviously (to be fair the French needed the colonies for resources, manpower etc etc), so I still don't think they would cough up Madagascar!wkwillis said:
And while the Regia Aeronautica build some damn good fighters, I think the French ones were equal to the Italian ditto in 1940 (French fighter development kinda stalled after 1940 though!
).Perhaps if Italy got a free hand on the Balkans? And got coal etc etc from the British?
Best regards!
- Mr.Bluenote.
How did an Italian admiral get a Jewish wife? Damned if I know. Maybe he met her while she was doing the tourist thing in Florence. Italians didn't have the hate the Jews thing some of the other Europeans did. Anyway, she was the widow of an Italian admiral and therefore an Italian citizen.
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Eh, I actually meant how did the wife of an Italian Admiral end up in a camp, not how/why did an Italian Admiral marry a jewish woman!wkwillis said:
Regards!
- B.
"There was that Jewish wife of an Italian admiral. She went to the camps and the Germans refused to let her out."
I was wondering about that too. Mussolini did not persecute the Jews; it was only when Mussolini was toppled and the Germans occupied the northern half of Italy that the Jews were persecuted. Barring some weird accident, if she got into a concentration camp, Mussolini would already be a German figurehead in the North only and in no position to really do anything about it (unlike when he ruled all of Italy).
I was wondering about that too. Mussolini did not persecute the Jews; it was only when Mussolini was toppled and the Germans occupied the northern half of Italy that the Jews were persecuted. Barring some weird accident, if she got into a concentration camp, Mussolini would already be a German figurehead in the North only and in no position to really do anything about it (unlike when he ruled all of Italy).
What gives you this strange idea? The racial laws were approved in 1938, and resulted in the expulsion of a number of Fascist jews from the Party, as well as in the beginning of problems for jews teaching at school or in university. One of the best known side effects was the defection of Fermi (he had a jewish wife) when he went to collect the Nobel: if you need a proof for the stupidity of enacting the racial laws (in particular in Italy, where there was no special acrimony against jews, or even a large number of jews).Matt Quinn said:
Admittedly, the racial laws were never enacted in a way similar to Germany, and quite a number of jews were saved by italian army and diplomatic corps (again a proof that racial laws were a stupid move) until 1944, and German occupation.
Going back to the main topic, there is no chance that Italy would go to war with the Allies in 1940 (nor would there be any need, if you want). The best scenario for everyone would be Mussolini getting finally convinced that the war was not going to end in 1940, and keeping neutrality (maybe just occupying some piece of france like Nice litoral and Djibouti, which were claimed by Italy). In 1940-42 Italy could act as middleman for all the belligerents, getting rich and finding the needed time to reorganize its Army. After 1941, there would be no chance of getting in bed with Hitler (the war appears already lost for Germany), so Italy would stay put poissibly until 1944.The only action in those years might be an intervention in the Yugoslavian civil war.
The Italians wasn't really into it. For the life of me I can't see why Mussolini and Co passed those laws. A very low percentage of Italy's jews were sent to the camps, mostly because the Italians did their best to protect them. Usually Regio Esercito stod between the Jews and their persecutors. In all its areas of occupation the Italians, AFAIK, did their very best to prevent the Nazis and local nutjob equivalents from killing Jews and others at random or ship them off to the camps. Apparently, this activity was not due to the initiatives of local commanders but received the unofficial endorsement of the highest authorities (Mussolini himself among others - which somehow conflicts with the whole business of the Italian Race Laws of 1938, yes). The Italians managed to resist the, hm, strong diplomatic pressure put on them by their German allies by the usual Italian application of red tape. At least until the 8th of September 1943, when Italy was occupied by the Germans (don't really count the RSI as an independent nation).LordKalvan said:
Huh?!?LordKalvan said:
Yeah, true enough! He, however, seemed just a little to keen to use his New Roman Legions on somebody...LordKalvan said:
Best regards!
- B.
Redbeard
Banned
PoD:
Due to a bad hair day, or a bad night, Mussolini never decides to have a go at France in June 40.
But the French collapse and go Vichy as usual (incl. Mers-el-Kebir etc.).
The Italians remain strictly neutral, but are secretly negotiating with the British about sharing the Vichy French colonies. In September 1940 Italian forces enter Tunesia and French Djibuti and soon overruns Algeria and Morocco too, and British take Syria and Lebanon. The Germans are furious, but realise that Germany has no chance of intervening in those parts of the world anyway and stays calm. Vichy France is at war with Italy, but the Italians are told from Berlin, that if they stay out of France nothing will happen. Simultaneously British (Commonwealth) and Thai troops land in French Indochina but so does the Japanese. It soon comes to fighting, and although the Vichy French are ordered to side with the Japanese, it is obvious from the mass defections, that they prefer other masters. Both sides say that they only invaded to keep the other out, but as usual the British are better at propaganda. British Empire and Japan are now at war with each other, but the Italians remain neutral. With safe access through the Med. and Middle East the British have a far easier job in keeping forces in the Far East and the Japanese have a hard time in French Indochina, and the IJN hesitate to enter any major battle with the strong RN squadron now based in Singapore and controlling the South China Sea.
In USA the President is deeply concerned, but sees no possibility to enter the war. The US presense in the PI is reinforced however and a strong naval squadron is sent there too. Naval advisers warn the President that this squadron really is out on a limp, but the President insists that the squadron is sent, and that it includes most of the Pacific Fleet's battleships and a couple of carriers for aircover. USA also keep up the blocake on Japan until she withdraws from China and French Indochina.
Meanwhile the British and Italians negotiate about the Balkans. Basically Italy wants British acceptance/support for the Balkans being an Italian sphere of influence, but the British hesitate to pay that much.
At the same time the Italians are negotiating with the Bulgarians and the Yugoslavians. The Bulgarians are keen to join anything involing a go at the Greeks, and the Yugoslavians show interest in a security guarantee involving both Italy and GB, as this would appear to give Yugoslavia a real chance of resisting German pressure.
As this goes on the Japanese have grown very nervous over the increasing US Forces in the PI, and realise that they won't be able to deal with the British before they have removed this thorn in the side, and decide to make a surprise attack on the US naval squadron while it does one of it's numerous promotion tours. On 7th of december 1940 the US squadron is caught by surprise, and although fighters suceed to get off from the carriers and inflict heavy casualties on the attackers, three out of four BB's and both carriers are sunk in deep water. Divebombers from the USN carriers succeed to get in the air and see their mother ships sink, but decide to go in the direction the enemy came from. Minuttes before they run out of fuel, they spot the IJN carriers and dive against them. Knowing that they have no possibility of returning many dive directly into the IJN ships, and within a few minuttes all four IJN carriers are ablaze and sinking.
In Washington Adm. King is furious at the President "You should have listened, I told you they were vulnerable over there!" The President smiles calmly and hands Adm. King a report from the cosmic topsecret Ultra interception saying that the IJN has lost all of it's operational CV's in a heroic suicide attack from USN divebombers. "We have taken great losses, but so has the enemy. Now we're in the Asian war and do not risk anylonger that either the British or the Japanese run with it all, I must compliment you and your men on a splendid job done!"
In Japan the radio boosts over a great victory over the Americans, and tells nothing of what happened to the IJN CV's.
In just the same hours a coup d'etat is going on in Yugoslavia. Croat and German friendly circles want to prevent the approaching to Italy and GB, fearing this will give the Serbs too great dominance. Fighting breaks out in Yugoslavia between rebels and troops loyal to the government. The Italians and British realise that it is now or never and openly support the Yugoslavian government around young King Peter, and soon a lot of Italian and a few British troops land in Yugoslavia.
This is the drop for Hitler and war is declared on Italy. Mussolini for a moment feels he has entered something he can't overlook, but is reassured by British reinforcements. And although the Americans are not at war with Germany they promise deliveries. Anyway he couldn't have kept anything going without the constant supplies of strategic materials and equipment from the Anglo-Saxons. The Italians are soon thrown out of Yugoslavia and Balkans, but the well fortified lines at the Isonzo and in Savoy so far has hold, and the growing British RAF and Army contingent is nice to have.
As we pass into 1941 the accelerating British production begins to tell. For the Japanese Indochina is very far away, especially as they have to go through a hostile China or subinfested seas. And with most CV's sunk the IJN doesn't dare to undertake major operations against the PI, Dutch East India or South China Sea.
In Germany they have realised they are in a difficult position. Although the German Army and Air Force is as mighty as ever, it has so far been impossible to penetrate the Italian fortifications in the Alps and large forces has to be kept guarding against the Russians. The Russians must be dealt with before the Americans enter the European war and the Japanese agree to operate against Siberia. They can't operate in SEA anyway, have idle army forces and are desperate for raw materials, why not try Siberia - nothing left to loose.
The French and Croatians are given the job of containing Italy and GB, while Germany, Hungary and Romania are to attack Russia with 200 Divisions in mid 1941 and 40 Japanese Divisions into Siberia...
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Due to a bad hair day, or a bad night, Mussolini never decides to have a go at France in June 40.
But the French collapse and go Vichy as usual (incl. Mers-el-Kebir etc.).
The Italians remain strictly neutral, but are secretly negotiating with the British about sharing the Vichy French colonies. In September 1940 Italian forces enter Tunesia and French Djibuti and soon overruns Algeria and Morocco too, and British take Syria and Lebanon. The Germans are furious, but realise that Germany has no chance of intervening in those parts of the world anyway and stays calm. Vichy France is at war with Italy, but the Italians are told from Berlin, that if they stay out of France nothing will happen. Simultaneously British (Commonwealth) and Thai troops land in French Indochina but so does the Japanese. It soon comes to fighting, and although the Vichy French are ordered to side with the Japanese, it is obvious from the mass defections, that they prefer other masters. Both sides say that they only invaded to keep the other out, but as usual the British are better at propaganda. British Empire and Japan are now at war with each other, but the Italians remain neutral. With safe access through the Med. and Middle East the British have a far easier job in keeping forces in the Far East and the Japanese have a hard time in French Indochina, and the IJN hesitate to enter any major battle with the strong RN squadron now based in Singapore and controlling the South China Sea.
In USA the President is deeply concerned, but sees no possibility to enter the war. The US presense in the PI is reinforced however and a strong naval squadron is sent there too. Naval advisers warn the President that this squadron really is out on a limp, but the President insists that the squadron is sent, and that it includes most of the Pacific Fleet's battleships and a couple of carriers for aircover. USA also keep up the blocake on Japan until she withdraws from China and French Indochina.
Meanwhile the British and Italians negotiate about the Balkans. Basically Italy wants British acceptance/support for the Balkans being an Italian sphere of influence, but the British hesitate to pay that much.
At the same time the Italians are negotiating with the Bulgarians and the Yugoslavians. The Bulgarians are keen to join anything involing a go at the Greeks, and the Yugoslavians show interest in a security guarantee involving both Italy and GB, as this would appear to give Yugoslavia a real chance of resisting German pressure.
As this goes on the Japanese have grown very nervous over the increasing US Forces in the PI, and realise that they won't be able to deal with the British before they have removed this thorn in the side, and decide to make a surprise attack on the US naval squadron while it does one of it's numerous promotion tours. On 7th of december 1940 the US squadron is caught by surprise, and although fighters suceed to get off from the carriers and inflict heavy casualties on the attackers, three out of four BB's and both carriers are sunk in deep water. Divebombers from the USN carriers succeed to get in the air and see their mother ships sink, but decide to go in the direction the enemy came from. Minuttes before they run out of fuel, they spot the IJN carriers and dive against them. Knowing that they have no possibility of returning many dive directly into the IJN ships, and within a few minuttes all four IJN carriers are ablaze and sinking.
In Washington Adm. King is furious at the President "You should have listened, I told you they were vulnerable over there!" The President smiles calmly and hands Adm. King a report from the cosmic topsecret Ultra interception saying that the IJN has lost all of it's operational CV's in a heroic suicide attack from USN divebombers. "We have taken great losses, but so has the enemy. Now we're in the Asian war and do not risk anylonger that either the British or the Japanese run with it all, I must compliment you and your men on a splendid job done!"
In Japan the radio boosts over a great victory over the Americans, and tells nothing of what happened to the IJN CV's.
In just the same hours a coup d'etat is going on in Yugoslavia. Croat and German friendly circles want to prevent the approaching to Italy and GB, fearing this will give the Serbs too great dominance. Fighting breaks out in Yugoslavia between rebels and troops loyal to the government. The Italians and British realise that it is now or never and openly support the Yugoslavian government around young King Peter, and soon a lot of Italian and a few British troops land in Yugoslavia.
This is the drop for Hitler and war is declared on Italy. Mussolini for a moment feels he has entered something he can't overlook, but is reassured by British reinforcements. And although the Americans are not at war with Germany they promise deliveries. Anyway he couldn't have kept anything going without the constant supplies of strategic materials and equipment from the Anglo-Saxons. The Italians are soon thrown out of Yugoslavia and Balkans, but the well fortified lines at the Isonzo and in Savoy so far has hold, and the growing British RAF and Army contingent is nice to have.
As we pass into 1941 the accelerating British production begins to tell. For the Japanese Indochina is very far away, especially as they have to go through a hostile China or subinfested seas. And with most CV's sunk the IJN doesn't dare to undertake major operations against the PI, Dutch East India or South China Sea.
In Germany they have realised they are in a difficult position. Although the German Army and Air Force is as mighty as ever, it has so far been impossible to penetrate the Italian fortifications in the Alps and large forces has to be kept guarding against the Russians. The Russians must be dealt with before the Americans enter the European war and the Japanese agree to operate against Siberia. They can't operate in SEA anyway, have idle army forces and are desperate for raw materials, why not try Siberia - nothing left to loose.
The French and Croatians are given the job of containing Italy and GB, while Germany, Hungary and Romania are to attack Russia with 200 Divisions in mid 1941 and 40 Japanese Divisions into Siberia...
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Redbeard,
Wow, that's an interesting TL.
How many dive bombers would be needed for the "American kamikaze" attack you describe?
Wow, that's an interesting TL.
How many dive bombers would be needed for the "American kamikaze" attack you describe?
Cool TL. Would Italy get Lend Lease in a scenario like this? Would be interested in seeing this one get fleshed out more- with the loss of IJN forces, and a friendly Italian Navy, how hard is the RN going to be pushing the German's in the Atlantic, or do they have other plans?
This ranks with Mr Bluenote's Italia Eterna TL as one of the most interesting WW2 TLs I've read recently. And I've read a lot!
Paulo the Limey,
defending British Interest in this TL
This ranks with Mr Bluenote's Italia Eterna TL as one of the most interesting WW2 TLs I've read recently. And I've read a lot!
Paulo the Limey,
defending British Interest in this TL
Anyway, we are saying the same things, more or less. just a matter of interpretationMr.Bluenote said:The Italians wasn't really into it. For the life of me I can't see why Mussolini and Co passed those laws. A very low percentage of Italy's jews were sent to the camps, mostly because the Italians did their best to protect them. Usually Regio Esercito stod between the Jews and their persecutors. In all its areas of occupation the Italians, AFAIK, did their very best to prevent the Nazis and local nutjob equivalents from killing Jews and others at random or ship them off to the camps. Apparently, this activity was not due to the initiatives of local commanders but received the unofficial endorsement of the highest authorities (Mussolini himself among others - which somehow conflicts with the whole business of the Italian Race Laws of 1938, yes). The Italians managed to resist the, hm, strong diplomatic pressure put on them by their German allies by the usual Italian application of red tape. At least until the 8th of September 1943, when Italy was occupied by the Germans (don't really count the RSI as an independent nation).
Exactly my point. The Racial laws were never applied in full prior to the 8th of september 43. But they were approved by the Grand Council of Fascism, and there were some (minor) effects on Jewish Italians. Considering that the Italians were not really into anti-Semitism (as proven by the behavior of the people and the army), the racial laws were a big mistake, and put a stain on Italy's name.
Huh?!?
Sorry, blame my bad English. I wanted to say that Italy would never have entered the war on the Allied side in 1940. The best scenario was neutrality
Yeah, true enough! He, however, seemed just a little to keen to use his New Roman Legions on somebody...
That was the problem. Mussolini pulled so many confidence tricks in the thirties that he started to believe in his own sleigths of hand. The army was clearly unprepared to enter a major war, and the navy had just two months fuel reserves. In this situation (and I cannot believe Mussolini was unaware of it) you get into a war only if you are truly convinced it's over and done. Well, it was not.
Best regards!
- B.
Very nice TL, Redbeard. And quite credible.
The only thing I am not so sure about would be an intervention in Yugoslavia on the Serbs side. There were many ties between Italy and the Croats (even if I admit they were also close to the Nazis). I agree it would have been the best thing Italy could do; still politics (and wars) are never completely rational
I am also strongly convinced that the Italians would have gone and carved some piece of France: Nice for sure, and maybe Corsica (not Savoy: too close to the Germans). You can always engineer some incident, and occupy as peacekeeper
The only thing I am not so sure about would be an intervention in Yugoslavia on the Serbs side. There were many ties between Italy and the Croats (even if I admit they were also close to the Nazis). I agree it would have been the best thing Italy could do; still politics (and wars) are never completely rational
I am also strongly convinced that the Italians would have gone and carved some piece of France: Nice for sure, and maybe Corsica (not Savoy: too close to the Germans). You can always engineer some incident, and occupy as peacekeeper
I believe that a neutral Italy (in particular an Italy who was working to keep the lid in the Mediterranean) would have got Lend Lease. Roosvelt was sympathetic to fascism, and had mutuated some ideas from it for the New Deal. And as Mr. Bluenote points out, Balbo was a popular hero in the States.Paulo the Limey said:Cool TL. Would Italy get Lend Lease in a scenario like this? Would be interested in seeing this one get fleshed out more- with the loss of IJN forces, and a friendly Italian Navy, how hard is the RN going to be pushing the German's in the Atlantic, or do they have other plans?
This ranks with Mr Bluenote's Italia Eterna TL as one of the most interesting WW2 TLs I've read recently. And I've read a lot!
Paulo the Limey,
defending British Interest in this TL
The Atlantic war would not have been so different: it was an U-boat war, mainly, and would have stayed the same. For sure, UK would have had more ships in the area, including destroyers, so the Germans might have been less successful
Wouldn't there also be a precedent for Italian mistrust of an Anglo-French alliance versus Germany? After all in 1915 Italy agreed to side with the Entente, against there treaty with Germany and Austria-Hungary, and recieved very little of what they had requested. So isn't it an issue of "fool me once, shame on you. fool me twince, shame on me"? So Italy might not have felt so inclined to parley with the Anglo-French this time.
Or am I mistaken?
Or am I mistaken?
Not completely, but it was not a consideration in 1940. There are two things to consider: Mussolini was 100% sure the war was over, with a German victory. In his words, he needed "a few dead bodies to sit at the peace conference". Additionally, the most juicy pieces coveted by Italy were in Anglo-French hands: Malta, Nice, Savoy, Tunisia, and so on.Victor Marik said:
You could say that he got rushed, and jumped in fearing to be cut out in the definition of the new European Order. Very bad judgement, obviously: once UK remained in the war, it was clear that Germany could not win. Or maybe it's clear now...