Italians exploit Ottoman naval inferiority and defeat the Ottoman Navy in 1912

Considering the massive superiority of the Italian Navy against its Ottoman opponent, what if the Italian Navy became slightly more aggressive in the Italian-Ottoman War during 1912? The pods used are having the Ottomans lose more ships, maybe getting more aggressive Italian commanders, a less hostile Austria-Hungary and friendlier Greece and Italy commissioning its first dreadnought by at least a year earlier. Would the Italians destroy the Ottoman Navy and increase the possibility of amphibious landings? What would that do to the Balkan Wars? And if WW1 isn't butterflied away by the loss of the Ottoman Navy, the Ottomans don't surrender and the Italians and Austrians keep their fleets intact despite the losses, what would the Ottoman Navy be like? Would the German Mediterranean Squadron be expelled from Constantinople if the Ottomans received their dreadnoughts completed on time? And, would Russia increase the pace of its Black Sea Fleet construction or decrease it?

An approximate order of battle for this scenario
Here's a rough idea regarding how the order of battle would be like:
4-8 pre-dreadnoughts [including support from 4 ironclads]
4 armoured cruisers
4 protected cruisers
2 torpedo cruisers
30 destroyers, torpedo boats and escorts
a few submarines
[I assume that the rest of the fleet would be kept as reserve for refit, logistical issues and to keep Austro-Hungarian opinions neutral and ambivalent at least to prevent any invasion of Italy. Also, several ships might be trapped or sunk, being caught outside the Dardenelles' safety.]
Ottoman order of battle:
2 pre-dreadnoughts
4 ironclads [including those in inferior condition]
4 protected and torpedo cruisers
15 destroyers, gunboats and torpedo boats
minefields and coastal artillery
[The battle would take place in the Dardenelles and involve bombardment of Constantinople.]
[Possible Greek support for Italy might be considered.]
Now, the Italians would win, but at what cost? How many ships would the Italians lose?

An approximate scenario for the battle [Introduction]

[With several butterflies, this should be the course of battle's introduction.]
On 18 July 1912, several Italian torpedo boats were supposed to raid the Dardenelles and inflict damage on Ottoman morale. However, the recent capture of the island of Rhodes had resulted in the Regia Marina clamouring for a decisive battle since June 1912. The objective was to destroy the Ottoman Navy for good and assist the peace treaty negotiations in the Italians' favour. Also, assistance from the Balkan states was expected and the this would assist the Italian Army in dealing with the Ottomans, besides detering Austria-Hungary and weakening Libyan morale. The battle would be expected to end in a decisive Italian naval victory, besides shelling Constantinople, despite the anticipated international reaction for Italian war crimes and claims to the city itself.

However, the Italian Navy had a plan. Aggressive Admirals Alfredo Acton and Paolo Thoan di Revel, the latter having secured a victory to Italian shipping and morale by destroying an Ottoman squadron at Beirut, suggested something else. As a result, the raid would be replaced with a major bombardment of the Dardenelles. The scheduled sortie would be delayed by 2 weeks, probably by more, to get the Italian navy ready for action by early August. The Italian Navy had its first dreadnought in service and another was on its way to completion. The Austrians on the other hand, had only the dreadnought Viribus Unitis in operation and was navally inferior to the Italians. Nevertheless, Italy couldn't take a chance due to the typically hostile attitude between them and Austrian support for the Ottomans while Italy was shifting to the Entente despite the so- called "Triple Alliance" signed 30 years ago.

After the considerations were readied, the battle preparations were underway. Italian sailors expected high morale, despite the protests from some. Others would hope that the ships were ready with ammunition, food, coal, torpedoes and supplies. The orders given demanded the fleet's sailing on 8 August. Several light forces assigned were to carry out rehearsals for the attack by attacking Ottoman ports in Albania, Aegean islands and the Turkish coast for rehearsal before the storm.

ghappy1000 said:

Here's a rough idea regarding how the order of battle would be like:
4-8 pre-dreadnoughts [including support from 4 ironclads]
4 armoured cruisers
4 protected cruisers
2 torpedo cruisers
30 destroyers, torpedo boats and escorts
a few submarines
[I assume that the rest of the fleet would be kept as reserve for refit, logistical issues and to keep Austro-Hungarian opinions neutral and ambivalent at least to prevent any invasion of Italy. Also, several ships might be trapped or sunk, being caught outside the Dardenelles' safety.]
Ottoman order of battle:
2 pre-dreadnoughts
4 ironclads [including those in inferior condition]
4 protected and torpedo cruisers
15 destroyers, gunboats and torpedo boats
minefields and coastal artillery
[The battle would take place in the Dardenelles and involve bombardment of Constantinople.]
[Possible Greek support for Italy might be considered.]
Now, the Italians would win, but at what cost? How many ships would the Italians lose?

Click to expand...

Big issue is yet again mines I would think.

Here's a good link about the history of the coastal fortifications at Dardanelles: http://www.gallipoli1915.de/#!info-1/c1t7z

Minor Italian-Ottoman naval battles of summer 1912

In rehearsal for the battle, Italian destroyers raided the ports of Symrna and Preveza in the hope that the Ottoman light forces there would be unable to participate in the decisive battle. The battles were decisive, with the loss of 2 cruisers and a few torpedo boats and destroyers.
Battle of Symrna
The armoured corvette stationed at Syrmna received news that the port was shelled and surprised. The reaction of the ship's captain to the news resulted in the corvette being shelled by a Garibaldi class armoured cruiser, the flagship and only cruiser to participate in the raids. Although these wouldn't participate in the decisive battle, a raid could be useful for diversionary purposes. The 1st destroyer division supported the raids. An auxillary ship was on fire and before the Ottomans knew it, the battle was going to be turning to the Italians' advantage. Overall, only a destroyer was sunk for the Italians while the Ottomans lost the fleet based at Symrna. The destroyer was sunk by gunfire from the ships. Later, the force retreated in triumph except for another damaged destroyer which returned to Rhodes.
Battle of Preveza
The Pisa class armoured cruisers, with the escort of several older protected cruisers, destroyers and torpedo boats, shelled the port of Preveza in northern Epirus. It was believed that the raid would assist morale of the Italian sailors. A submarine was placed on patrol there to sink any vessels.
Suddenly, the Ottomans began their sortie. They fired torpedoes at the attackers and the cruiser Pisa was sunk by a magazine explosion. Another cruiser was more fortunate in escaping with some damage. The ships were virtually stationary and the Ottomans exploited the advantage given, but the torpedo boats, after firing on several Italian torpedo boats and sinking or damaging 4 of them, fled. The Italian destroyer flotilla commander pursued the Ottomans and shelled them by surprise. It was a clear massacre, with the Ottoman boats sunk, but the dangers of staying stationary and being vulnerable to attack were noticed by the Italians. However, the battle results meant little other than the fact the Ottomans lost several obsolete torpedo boats and vessels to the bombardment, including a scuttling out of fear of capture, either of the ship or the port.
Raid on Salonika and the Dardenelles
The battle plans might involve an Italian diversionary raid on Salonika to divert attention and then, the return of the force. However, Greek attitudes and the threat to Constantinople might result in the Salonika Fleet being recalled, plus the intervention of Greece couldn't be ignored. Anyway, further raids on the Dardenelles, Ottoman controlled islands, the Turkish coast and Salonika were irrelevant as the fight would be decided by Italian guns shelling Constantinople. Having one of Europe's most important cities in flames was more important, especially if the Ottoman Navy was gone. Afterwards, it was all but the dying to occur.

Preparations for the naval battle

After the minor raids of July, the supplies for the battle, loaded in anticipation of the sailing, were underway. Prince Luigi of Savoia was quickly made Commander-in-Chief on 1 August of the Italian Navy while Alfredo Acton and Paolo Thoan di Rivel were bumped upwards from Rear Admirals to Vice Admirals. All ships involved were supposed to be at home ports by 1 August 1912, from the mightiest battleship to the smallest torpedo boat and auxillary involved.
Over the following few days, the Italian Navy loaded the supplies for the battlefleet. The Ottomans reinforced the Dardenelles with minefields, a corps and the Salonika detachment. The Italians demanded more submarines be stationed off the Adriatic and free up an extra destroyer division for the battle. Now, the issue was Austro-Hungarian and Greek neutrality to prevent interference and disruption of supplies.
Finally, at night on 8 August, the supplies were loaded and the ships based in Venice were readied for sailing. Before midnight the next day, their anchors lifted as they set sail for Brindisi, to escort the auxillaries and battlefleet for the battle. A submarine was also sent if necessary to support the attack. Operational ships at home were alerted in the event the Austro-Hungarians declared war and/or the Italian Navy was defeated while forcing the straits. Victory was imminent even with the reduced force, though. Every ship was checked to see if adequate supplies were loaded and the final departure for the Italian Navy located to the south took place during twilight of 9 August, after allowing the recoaling of torpedo boats.
The first stop during the journey was the Italian Fleet's recoaling during 10 August by auxillaries off the Greek coast. Although the Greeks weren't receptive of Italian territorial ambitions and the usage of their coastline to replenish, they let the ships pass through. Anyway, Italy and Greece's major nemesis was the Ottoman Empire itself, and the empire's death through Italian naval support would provide Greece with all the territory it wanted. After replenishing, the fleet proceeded to assault Constantinople and the Dardenelles starting from 12 August, to allow for coal issues.

ghappy1000 said:

Considering the massive superiority of the Italian Navy against its Ottoman opponent, what if the Italian Navy became slightly more aggressive in the Italian-Ottoman War during 1912?

Click to expand...

To what end? AIUI, the decrepit Ottoman navy retreated inside the Dardanelles. It was no factor at all in the war. The Italian navy had complete control of the sea outside the Dardanelles, but was not capable of pushing through.

IOW, OTL's result is overdetermined.

Wasn't the Ottoman Navy heavily overstaffed with people who were friends of the commissioners (and who lacked qualifications and attendance) who were assigned to ships that had been chained to their docks for decades to prevent couple attempts?

The shelling of the Dardenelles

Early morning on 12 August 1912, Ottoman gunners were awoken when the batteries of the Dardenelles caught fire and they attempted to alert the government authority in Constantinople. Ahmed Muntar and Mahmud Sevket Pashas ordered the Ottoman Navy to be readied and sortie by 16 August. It was expected that by 15 August, the fortresses of the Dardenelles would be out of ammunition and the Ottomans might have to retreat. There might even be an invasion of Gallipoli and a threat to retreating across the straits besides the city. Bulgaria would be expected to declare war on the Ottoman Empire in the event the Navy was lost and international troubles were brewing in Europe, which would be exacerbated when the Balkan strike occurred.
For the Italian Navy, it was time to make its first significant contribution to world history, even for unenthusiastic sailors. The shelling of Cape Helles knocked out several batteries after lunchtime and the fleet proceeded north, with a damaged ironclad blowing the remaining defences into total wreckage. Ammunition supplies were underway for the batteries and minelayers sortied to destroy the Italian fleet with their underwater weapons.
The minesweeper fleet, which was organized by 8 August, left Rhodes with destroyer escort. The destroyers had escorted the replenishing auxillaries and were now getting the minesweepers to sweep the Ottoman mines. After the first shell from the batteries surrounding the "Narrows" started shelling, the Italian naval firepower rate accelerated. The objective was getting all the guns south of Canakkale neutralised within one day of shelling and another day was reserved for wrecking the guns to the north of the straits. 14 August would be spent mopping up any trace of Ottoman resistance with reinforcements sent on 10 August and the fleet would reach Constantinople by 16 August. After the destruction of the Ottoman Navy, shelling of guns and probable forced surrender of Constantinople, the sailors would parade triumphantly within a week of their entry to Turkish waters.
Minesweeping within range of these batteries began at 15:00 hours of 12 August. Suddenly, an Italian battleship was damaged by a mine and forced to retreat. However, the aggressive and determined captain kept the ship going and shelling at these fortifications. Water was entering the hole done into the ship and shells later pierced its hull, with the Ottoman gunners encouraged by the ship's list to port, causing its eventual sinking the next day. Another battleship was sunk by mines, but the 2 Italian ships sunk would be the only Italian losses for the Italian Fleet's first 24 hours when attacking the Dardenelles, besides 3 destroyers, several minesweepers and a light cruiser. The Ottomans lost several gunboats and patrol craft which alerted the Ottoman Navy.
The Ottomans believed that they scored a major victory for the day, but they were wrong with the defeats faced over the following days.
The major resistance faced by the Italians would take place on 13 August. Several batteries surrounding the town started firing and they caught fire instantly, eventually causing a massive explosion. However, the Ottoman gunners became more determined at resistance and started shelling back. The mine-damaged Italian battleship, as mentioned earlier, was sunk by the first shells getting their way into its hull. Then, fire from Ottoman batteries got an armoured cruiser exploded at noon, although much of the reserve ammunition was used up. Other losses included several torpedo boats and minesweepers. The minesweepers were honestly no better than fishing boats and trawlers and any sane admiral would have called for retreat that moment.
Reinforcements from the replenishment convoy's escorts were underway and included 2 battleships, 2 armoured cruisers, 4 protected and torpedo cruisers and 10 destroyers. The risk of Austria-Hungary declaring war with the majority of the Italian Fleet sent to the Dardenelles increased, but assurances regarding the Dante Aligheiri's condition, plus a few days of opportunity before reaching Constantinople and the imminent peace would keep Austria-Hungary thinking otherwise. In the evening, another armoured cruiser was sunk with 2 destroyers detached to assist the survivors. One was damaged by shells and scuttled. Ottoman citizens were worried about the moment when the last shot from the guns was fired. The moment when their capital city was bombarded would be the end for them.
By 14 August, resistance decreased out of a need to preserve shells and a light cruiser, plus 2 torpedo boats, were the only significant losses for the day until lunchtime. Another cruiser was damaged, but continued with the pace of action. In return, most batteries in Canakkale and the south were neutralised. Another destroyer was lost to a collision, but the Italian navy felt secure with the plenty of torpedo boats and destroyers coming to the fleet. An Italian submarine sank a torpedo boat, with the rest of its division picking off several transport ships. This caused alarm in Constantinople and non-torpedo carrying light craft were sent to hunt these underwater intruders. There was one submarine loss, to a minefield, and the first submarine torpedo attacks in history were accomplishments when saw as 'unEnglish and uncivilised weapons'.

Cannakkale

The major resistance faced by the Italians would take place on 13 August. Several batteries surrounding the town started firing and they caught fire instantly, eventually causing a massive explosion. However, the Ottoman gunners became more determined at resistance and started shelling back. The mine-damaged Italian battleship, as mentioned earlier, was sunk by the first shells getting their way into its hull. Then, fire from Ottoman batteries got an armoured cruiser exploded at noon, although much of the reserve ammunition was used up. Other losses included several torpedo boats and minesweepers. The minesweepers were honestly no better than fishing boats and trawlers and any sane admiral would have called for retreat that moment.
Reinforcements from the replenishment convoy's escorts were underway and included 2 battleships, 2 armoured cruisers, 4 protected and torpedo cruisers and 10 destroyers. The risk of Austria-Hungary declaring war with the majority of the Italian Fleet sent to the Dardenelles increased, but assurances regarding the Dante Aligheiri's condition, plus a few days of opportunity before reaching Constantinople and the imminent peace would keep Austria-Hungary thinking otherwise. In the evening, another armoured cruiser was sunk with 2 destroyers detached to assist the survivors. One was damaged by shells and scuttled. Ottoman citizens were worried about the moment when the last shot from the guns was fired. The moment when their capital city was bombarded would be the end for them.
By 14 August, resistance decreased out of a need to preserve shells and a light cruiser, plus 2 torpedo boats, were the only significant losses for the day until lunchtime. Another cruiser was damaged, but continued with the pace of action. In return, most batteries in Canakkale and the south were neutralised. Another destroyer was lost to a collision, but the Italian navy felt secure with the plenty of torpedo boats and destroyers coming to the fleet. An Italian submarine sank a torpedo boat, with the rest of its division picking off several transport ships. This caused alarm in Constantinople and non-torpedo carrying light craft were sent to hunt these underwater intruders. There was one submarine loss, to a minefield, and the first submarine torpedo attacks in history were accomplishments when saw as 'unEnglish and uncivilised weapons'.
At 9:00 p.m., Canakkale used the last ammunition remnants in sinking several light craft. The Italians maintained some supremacy over the straits and were prepared to charge into the city virtually unopposed. The day saw 5 torpedo boats and 2 cruisers sunk, including the losses mentioned earlier for the day until noon. An ironclad was also sunk among the capital ships. The shelling of the northern batteries took place at night and continued to sunrise on the 15th, costing one cruiser, a destroyer and a torpedo boat. The reinforcement squadron sent lost one battleship to mines and a destroyer. However, the Italians had the naval advantage. The only incident on 15 August was a damaged torpedo boat, but the damage was too light to disrupt the operation, the shell being a dud. In addition, a light cruiser was damaged, but survived.

The voyage to Constantinople and naval battle

By evening on that day, the fleet was ready for assaulting Constantinople without encountering any resistance. The fleet arrived at the city entrances in the early morning and guns were shelled. The Ottomans weren't idle, though, and the navy sortied to intercept the Italian invaders. It was a matter of life or death to the empire, especially with the mobilization of the Balkan states. The only hope was international pressure, or failing that, an Austrian declaration of war on Italy, but even those came to nought.
The naval battle began when the torpedo boat Sultanhisar and several gunboats reported the presence of the Italian fleet to the Ottomans. They were all sunk, but the damage inflicted on the destroyer fleet was minor. It was obvious that the Ottomans would lose, but the element of surprise might decide the battle course in favour of them. Battleship Turgut Reis sank a weak ironclad up before being sunk, in exchange for some damage on pre-dreadnought Napoli. Barbaros Hayreddin was torpedoed and sunk, while the Italian torpedo boat and destroyer losses were too minimal. Napoli was later scuttled after further damage that day. The ironclad battle saw the loss of 2 ironclads to every Ottoman version of the ship in service. During the earlier days in the Dardenelles, the fleet lost the Ammiraglio di Saint Bon, Regina Margherita, Emanuele Filberto and Re Umberto. In addition, 1 Italian protected cruiser, an armoured cruiser and 2 torpedo cruisers were sunk while the entire Ottoman cruiser fleet was sent to the bottom. The Italians lost 6 destroyers as well while the Ottomans lost all 6 that didn't escape and another torpedo boat still afloat. The sunken torpedo boat's sister would be scuttled later. Despite the desperate torpedo launch, only battleship Roma was damaged and departed with 2 escorts. The retreating Ottoman light craft and 2 destroyers finished off the Roma and escorts before being sunk. The Ottoman Navy was done for as a fighting force.
So far, the losses of the Italian Navy as of 17 August 1912 were as follows:
20 destroyers [including one damaged and foundering off the sight of the Ottomans], 6 protected [or light] cruisers, 2 torpedo cruisers, 2 armoured cruisers, 4 ironclads and 6 pre-dreadnoughts [including one sunk during the bombardment of Constantinople], not including any auxillary vessel and minesweeper.
The Ottomans lost 2 pre-dreadnoughts, every ironclad, cruiser and destroyer in service, most light craft and several transport ships over the 5 days in the Dardenelles.
Now, are the Italian losses [slightly] too excessive?

Constantinople in flames and surrender

By 17 August 1912, the Ottoman Navy was under the ocean floor other than the minor vessels that escaped from the city. The Italians started shelling what should be 'Russia's Third Rome and entrance to the Mediterranean' in the event the Ottomans surrendered. However, Russian assertion to its claims on the city would come as expected the next day.
First of Constantinople and its environments to fall to Italian guns were the Ottoman guns themselves. Then, the Topkapi Palace, Bukoleon Palace and other government buildings were engaged by armoured cruiser gunfire. Sultan Mehmed V was lucky to escape with his government ministers on the city's fastest automobiles, saving their lives from Italian fire or capture. Bazaars were temporarily closed as people fled for their lives and defence of the city.
Unfortunately, a naval shell accidentally wrecked the Hagia Sofia, which was among the approximately 10 or so churches, mosques and synagogues affected by the shelling. Although it was now a mosque, the mosque could be [and would be] reconverted in the event Orthodox Christians captured the city from the Ottomans. Also, several international citizens were harmed by gunfire. The Italians lost a pre-dreadnought to an explosion with the last ammunition reserves depleted in its sinking.
In response, an international condemnation of the shelling and the war, which was pointless now that the Ottoman Navy was impotent, was issued by the Ottoman government. As expected, even friendlier Britain, France, Russia, Bulgaria and Serbia couldn't tolerate the bombardments, besides Germany and Austria-Hungary, due to the disruption of international power balance and crimes against civilians, in addition to being in competition with their territorial ambitions. Russia might be more lenient out of contempt for the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary, plus Italian success, and so might be her Triple Entente and Balkan allies. However, WW1 was still inevitable and the Entente hating Triple Alliance would have Italy kicked out of the alliance for its crimes against the city, especially when followed by a declaration of war from Austria-Hungary, which hated Italy more and saw Italy's increasing departure from its alliance requirements.
By 18 August, the Italian Navy pulled out of the city and began the return journey. Despite the harm inflicted on Constantinople, the destruction was unfinished. However, the Ottomans had enough, especially with the threat from the Balkans and a world war. It was apparent that the Entente would be more lenient and friendlier with Italy, Balkan states and Armenians compared with Germany and Austria-Hungary, and these would destroy or wreck the power behind the empire.
Finally, the Ottomans sent their emissaries to meet with Italian diplomats and sign the peace treaty at Ouchy, a village near Lausenne, on 8 September. The treaty demanded the withdrawal of Ottoman forces from Libya and Italian held Aegean islands, acceptance of Italian occupation of said places, permission for judges and regents at Trabylus and Benghazi vilayets to represent Islam, the Ottomans and the Caliph with Italian consent and Ottoman payments for war debts. It was just in time for the Balkan War of 1912, which broke out the same day.

First Balkan War Introduction

Exploiting the Italian victories, the Balkan states formed an alliance and imagined victory against the Ottoman Empire, followed by a carving of 'Turkey' for Christmas. Originally planned for October, the league of Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro and Greece began mobilization immediately after the bombardment of Constantinople [and the pace accelerated than reality]. It was anticipated that early September would catch the Ottomans earlier than prepared, and while dealing with the Italian peace treaty, debates about the navy and harvest. Anticipated revolts from Balkan Christians would be conducive in the venture.
Tensions between the recently formed Balkan states and competition for the Ottoman Empire's exit from Europe, if not its death, were common during the last quarter of the 19th century and early years of the 20th, before the First World War. [Eastern] Rumelia, Thrace and Macedonia, plus several islands and Albania for Greece, were the territories coverted. After the Young Turk Revolution of 1908, Austria-Hungary deprived Serbia of its expected gain of Bosnia. This increased Serb ambitions on the southern part of Ottoman Europe, which led to an alliance with Montenegro, Bulgaria and Greece called the Balkan League.
The Ottoman attempt to resettle Albania and Macedonia with Muslims displaced from Bosnia and the new Balkan states was unsuccessful. Albanian nationalism was peaking and several ethnic Albanians among the Muslims, plus Catholic Albanians and supporters of the deposed Sultan Abdul Hamid II, were disgruntled to Ottoman control. In response, Serbia began arming of Albanian revolutionaries to fight the despised Ottomans. The Albanian revolutions, which intensified with the Ottoman naval defeats, were used as pretexts for war, along with the Ottoman Navy's death and the vulnerability of Constantinople. It was remarked that the Serbian and Montenegrin kings declared that they would promise equality, independence and brotherhood to the Albanians, even though they lacked interest and prioritsed Orthodox Slavs over the Albanians and had no interest in carrying out their promises. This was proven when Albanians didn't consider Serbs as liberators and Serbian soldiers ignored King Peter's attempt to make allies out of Albanians.
Serbia negotiated with Bulgaria regarding the attack and the agreement stated that Macedonia south of Kriva-Palanka to Ohrid would be in Bulgarian hands whereas the north, including provinces such as Kosovo, would be incorporated into the budding south Slavic state. In the event the Ottomans were defeated, the final division of gains would be negotiated between the countries. The coup d' etat which fully unified Eastern Rumelia with Bulgaria and the full Bulgarian declaration of independence, in 1885 and 1908 respectively, resulted in the national dreams of making Bulgaria the most powerful and "Prussia" of the Balkans besides the formation of a strong military much closer than before.
In Greece, the national defeat of the 1897 war against the Ottomans, the Goudi coup of young army officers, progressives and liberal politicians resulted in a new government with Venizelos as prime minister. The liberal native Cretan would be expected to solve the "Cretan Question" once and for all by defeating the Ottomans in alliance with other states. The Greeks entered the war almost unprepared themselves, and a military reorganization by French military advisors had been cancelled as a result of the war, leaving the structuring to the weak Greek Army. During the forming Balkan League's attempt to gain more [non- Slavic] allies such as Greece, Bulgaria refused to agree with the Greeks regarding distribution of gains unlike its negotiations with Serbia out of [over]confidence that it would take Thrace and the Aegean portion of Macedonia, including the prize of Salonika, before the Greek entry.
After the successful Italian invasions of Libya, the Dodecanese islands and the assault of Constantinople, the Balkan countries signed an alliance that became known as the Balkan League, including several clauses on military strength and territorial distribution. Despite attempts by great powers such as France, Germany, Austria-Hungary and Britain to stop the formation of the alliance and war preparations over the summer, it was too late, especially with the Italian naval victories over the Ottomans. It was now time for the individual nations to send their declarations of war.

First Balkan War Opening Campaign

In support of the 'Albanian Revolt', Montenegro declared war on the Ottoman Empire on 8 September 1912. Then, Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece issued an ultimatum on the Ottoman Empire three days later. When the Ottoman Empire failed to comply, the league declared war on 15 September and operations in Macedonia began in earnest.
At the beginning of war, the majority of the Ottoman forces were deployed in Macedonia, to face the concentration of Bulgarians and Serbs, and approximately 200-300 war correspondents sent to the frontline or who volunteered to observe battlefield conditions since the outbreak of war, recorded not only the declarations, but also the battlefield conditions and troops dispositions, noticed this. Among them included the German Ambassador to the Ottoman Empire, Baron Hans Von Wangelheim. Unfortunately, the mistake was leaving Thrace vulnerable to invasion along with Constantinople. Besides, the Ottomans had to really fear an amphibious invasion with 2 corps stationed at Gallipoli and Constantinople. This was a real consequence of the Italian naval assault on the Dardenelles and the Ottoman Navy's loss. When the new battleships ordered from Britain would be ready is a question, but the Ottomans were really doomed navally. The money spent on acquiring a new battleship would have to be reallocated for purchasing several destroyers and any reinforcements purchased or sent from Austria-Hungary were refused, especially when the Austrians feared that the more aggressive Italian Navy would wreak havoc on their Adriatic coast. Not to mention WW1 and the reinforcements would be useless with the Russian Black Sea Fleet threatening the Ottomans, as this should free up the Greek Navy for operations with Italy and gain naval supremacy against the Ottomans. While Russia would find itself unwilling to support Balkan troubles and competition of Constantinople, fighting the Ottomans was another matter if the empire could be destroyed.
Balkan War Offensives: Introduction
As a result of the Ottoman reallocation of troops for coastal defence, the Ottoman war plans were disrupted because the Ottomans had to take an aggressive posture against the Bulgarians. Also, an offensive was launched against Greece in the Epirus region from Albania, but it was quickly defeated. However, the Greeks counterattacked with troop reinforcements from southern Macedonia, even if their potential gains would end up in Bulgarian and Serb hands. Macedonia and Thrace would be Serb and Bulgarian respectively, unless the Greeks caught up, but they would only receive Salonika, Thrace and southern Macedonia in the end.

Bulgarian Offensive

The Bulgarian Army had a total of 300,000 troops in Thrace against the 120,000 of the Ottoman Empire, plus some 50,000 in reserve or coastal defence. There were 3 Bulgarian Armies, all stationed in [Eastern] Thrace. The Erdine-Kirkliaerli line was the objective of the 1st and 3rd Bulgarian Armies and was pierced by 25 September, leading to the defeat of the Ottoman troops in Thrace. Ottoman XVIII and XV Corps were placed in coastal defence duties and this eliminated 2 corps supposed to face the actual Greek and Bulgarian Armies respectively.
As a result, Kolemen Abdullah Pasha, the commander-in-chief of the Ottoman 1st Army in Thrace, had to abandon his positions at Kirk Kilisse after a failed offensive and the loss of Kardzharli. The latter town of the Rhodopes was in Bulgarian hands and would permanently stay under Bulgarian control. Originally, the Kircaali detachment was supposed to be defending the line, but the loss of the Ottoman Navy and defeat of the Ottoman offensive against Bulgaria resulted in the troops sent to cover the gap in the frontline. The Bulgarian Thracian [2nd] Division would exploit this gap in the frontline and assault the town, which was perilously close to the railway between Harmanli to Plovdiv, and the Bulgarian Thracian Army's path of advance.

Nikola Ivanov, the commander of the Bulgarian 2nd Army, was to drive the Ottomans facing the Maristsa River and Rhodope Mountains. Even with strong mountains and a good command post, being vulnerable to aggressive Bulgarian Army attacks and shelling when combined with weakened Ottoman defences, would not do Ottoman defences there well. The Ottomans, although numerically superior, were weaker in artillery and quality and the threat to Constantinople couldn't be ignored in the face of amphibious landings.

On the 1st day of the offensive, 18 September, the Bulgarian Division advanced in four brigadier columns to the attack against the town. Kovancilar and Goklemezar villages fell into Bulgarian hands the same day. The advance towards Gumuljina and Kardzharli threatened Ottoman communications between Macedonia and Thrace. A failed divisional counteroffensive by Yaver Pasha with minimal reinforcements was barely repulsed by the 20th, after the entire Thracian Division threatened the offensive's flanks and supply depots. As the advance to Thrace was too risky with the Bulgarians being threatened, they stopped their offensive and counterattacked, not being aware the the Ottomans were weakening and using the last troops that could face the [Bulgarian] division.

Nikola Ivanov, the Bulgarian 2nd Army's commander, persisted with his offensive due to freedom of action and the perceived safety of his flanks. However, the Ottoman counterattack had to be broken up first. After the Bulgarians halted the Ottoman offensive on the left flank, they counterattacked and the Ottomans retreated. The lack of artillery made the holding of Kardzharli and its surrounding mountains useless despite the potential of stalling. An Ottoman relieve attempt was cancelled after the Bulgarian Navy's daring torpedo boat raid on Constantinople, sinking several transport ships, although these mainstream vessels of the Bulgarian Navy were defeated in the end.

By 23 September, it was apparent that the Ottomans would lose to the Bulgarians' superior artillery and aggressive attacks with massed bayonet usage. Soldiers of the Thracian Division overran the Ottoman defenses and threatened the Ottomans' west flank despite the Ottoman offensive against the sector. The Ottomans were in turn vulnerable to outflanking and had to withdraw to the south of the Matritsa River, abandoning large quantities of munitions and equipment. However, a last ditch failed counterattack regained the surrounding defences before the troops involved were cut off in Kardzharli. The next week, the Bulgarians entered the town after aggressive attacks and usage of supplies and took 1,000 prisoners. A big blow was inflicted on the Ottomans.

During and after the battle, most of the Turks evacuated the town and the evacuation was supported by a failed rebellion. Mestanli was captured and defences were prepared on the Maristsa. The flanks of advancing Bulgarian Armies operating against Adrianople and Constantinople, although threatened with initial envelopment, were now secured and the railway bertween Salonika and Dedegach was threatened. A detachment of the Thracian Division concentrated forces on manning and constructing defences while another secured the port of Gumuljina. This success threatened the railway, which was severed, and Ottoman operations against Serbia and Greece were disrupted by the disruption of communications and shifting of priorities.

At the beginning [1st] of October, the battle for Kirk Klisse, which was renamed Lozengrad after the battle, was fought and the Ottomans in eastern Thrace were defeated by Bulgaria decisively, increasing their retreat. The first engagements were around several villages north of the town. The Bulgarian attacks were too strong to be resisted, compelling the retreat of the Ottomans. On 5 October, the Ottoman army threatened to separate 1st and 3rd Bulgarian armies and damaged a division, nearly causing the counteroffensive to be successful, but shortly after wrecking 1st Sofian and 2nd Preslav brigades, it was repulsed decisively by the Bulgarian 1st Army. After costly fights for the entire town, the Ottomans retreated, albeit orderly, and on the next morning, Kırk Kilise fell into Bulgarian hands and was renamed Lozengrad. Following the Bulgarian victory, the French Minister of War, Alexandre Millerand, reported that the Bulgarian Army was [among] the best in Europe and he suggested 100,000 Bulgarians as better allies than the similar number or slightly larger number of troops from other European countries save for Russia [Germany and Austria-Hungary were considered enemies and Italy was too indecisive regarding its alliance loyalties. Britain was too naval based and other countries were too small to fight effectively.] This was despite the fact that the victory was against the collapsing 'sick man' of Europe.

The march to Constantinople

The Bulgarian Army continued to pursue the Ottomans vigorously after Kirk Kiliese was abandoned on 7 October and the Ottomans lost a brigade of troops in the retreat. By 10 October, the Ottomans were on the Lule Burgas-Bunar Hisar line and preparing for the next offensive. Radko Dimitrev of the Bulgarian 3rd Army attacked on 11 October and the Ottoman losses increased. After an Ottoman counteroffensive to destroy the 3rd Army, the Bulgarian 1st Army arrived in time to save the situation and attacks throughout the entire front began, but were met with fierce resistance and even some counter-attacks by the Ottomans were futilely attempted, but failed.

The subsequently intense and costly engagement for the town occurred on the next four days of battle and the casualties were heavy for the Bulgarians, who lost an entire division's worth of casualties in killed and wounded. Despite the heavy losses, the Bulgarian 4th and 5th Divisions managed to repulse the weakened Ottoman counterattack and captured 5km of land in their individual frontline sectors by 15 October. Then, the breach of the Ottoman frontline began and the Ottoman retreat turned into a full rout along the frontline. Details of the battle and the Ottoman retreat were covered heavily in the news reports of war correspondents.

The Bulgarians sent the Ottomans retreating on the entire front. The 6th division pierced the Ottoman lines on the right flank. After an extra three days of intense combat, the Ottoman defence collapsed and on the night of October 18, the Ottoman forces began the said retreat. The Bulgarians pursued the retreating Ottoman forces and quickly caught up with them. After catching the Ottoman Army retreating, the Bulgarians enveloped an entire corps and destroyed the formation by 23 October. The positions of the Calthadja Line were now vulnerable to an offensive as the remnants of the Bulgarian Navy raided Constantinople again.

The Calthadja Line was assaulted starting from 28 October, despite Russian opposition, and [what would be] the Ottomans' last open battle [in Europe] kicked off with a heavy shelling of the frontline. The assault failed initially and the Ottomans counterattacked, but the Ottomans were routed by the Bulgarian 1st Army, which aggressively attacked and the Ottomans lost even more troops in the withdrawal, despite heavy Bulgarian casualties as well. By 1 November, the Cathaldja Line was assaulted again and the Ottomans, with a deficit of 50,000 troops over the Bulgarians' 35,000 in killed and wounded [compared with reality], had to abandon the gaps on the left flank pierced by the Bulgarian 1st Army on 7 November. The Ottomans launched a counterattack and threatened to ruin the Bulgarian offensive, but Greek naval bombardments on the frontline resulted in the wrecking of several fortresses and the Ottoman offensive failed when the Bulgarians counterattacked. With Greek naval support, the pierced line and 40,000 Ottomans were in Bulgarian hands on 20 November and the road to Constantinople was open. The Bulgarian losses were approximately 25,000 men and the Greeks lost a warship, but the damage to the Ottomans was complete. Without cholera and Ottoman naval support, the damage done on the Ottoman Thracian Army was total.

The Greeks launched their amphibious landing on Gallipoli by 15 November and caught the Ottomans reinforcing the Bulgarian sector of the front. With an extra Bulgarian division, the fight for Gallipoli would be difficult. However, the Ottomans would lose the battle for Calthadja and XVII Corps, plus a division that reinforced Gallipoli, retreated to Constantinople. International pressure would keep the Bulgarians from claiming the city.

Despite this, the Bulgarians launched their offensive on Constantinople by 27 November. Ottoman Troops en route to the city's defence from Gallipoli and Thrace counterattacked the Bulgarians to gain more time for the preparation of their city's defences, but only a few days' of reprieve and the decimation of the corps were the only results achieved out of this attempt. The decimated Ottoman forces fought hard, but they were besieged inside what would be a prisoner of war camp. The Greek submarine Delfin fired torpedoes that sank Ottoman ships off the city, although it was sunk as well, and the increased manning of the Ottoman coastal defences further weakened the Ottoman Army.
[Note the butterfly effects on history occurring until Russian pressure comes.]

Siege of Constantinople

For December 1912, the residents of Constantinople would face the harshest miseries of their lives, but this was the truth. The Ottomans spent money purchasing several warships from Germany and Britain, but the sales were cancelled with the Balkan states' declarations of war. Purchases from Russia, France, Italy and Austria-Hungary were nothing because of the impossibility of purchasing from enemies and the only ally among these neutral countries couldn't spare anything more than a single battleship for purchase. That said, a world war would be the major issue, not the strengthening of the Ottoman Navy for belligerent purposes.

By 2 December 1912, Constantinople was besieged by the Bulgarians. The siege commenced with the taking of surrounding key positions defending the city on the first day, then the Princes' Islands by Greek amphibious landings and the shelling of the Golden Horn, with the palaces, government buildings, city walls, factories and fortresses selected for destruction. By 5 December, outside communications with the city were severed, although useless since the outbreak of war with Greek naval and Bulgarian military superiority. With the experiences of three and a half months ago, the Ottomans had carefully prepared the heavy defences of the city. Krupp guns shelled on Bulgarians and fire returned. The Bulgarians demanded Greek naval support in return. As a result, the Ottomans, with the only hope for them being foreign intervention, relied on foreign support. Any breakout or relief attempts was hampered by shelling from the Greek armoured cruiser Georgios Averof, although it was sunk later that month [23 December] by a minefield [or 'friendly fire' out of Russian ambitions or an accident involving Greek submarine Delfin, which might have mistaken Averof for an Ottoman battleship, cruiser or troopship that slipped through the blockade]. The only significant Ottoman Naval ship purchased from Germany, which was a pre-dreadnought battleship [another p.o.d. for this scenario] were sunk by Greek destroyers and torpedo boats blockading the straits earlier in the war, although with some losses for the Greeks. The shelling was too intense and a ceasefire was suggested, probably with the assistance of a somehow friendlier Russia, not pleased with the Balkan states taking its deserved prize for themselves.

The prize of Constantinople, effectively the war's most significant reward and bringing the government's decapitation with its loss, was a target of international debate. Over the siege, the citizens inside the city, especially Muslims, Jews and [most] non-[Orthodox] Christians became worried about their starving states and their fates if the Bulgarians and Greeks came to pillage their residences. Forced conversions and ethnic cleansing [especially to Asian Turkey] would be a policy of the Balkan state governments, Orthodox clergy and the international commissions regarding the city's fate, especially Entente and Balkan dignitaries. The only hope was a quick negotiation to end the warfare as soon as possible.

The constant state of siege warfare was an issue of consternation, as a prolonged siege, although benefitting to the Bulgarians as a decisive death blow of the Ottomans, a saviour of Greek and Bulgarian troops and enabling the defeat of [futile] reinforcements, would turn public opinions against the Balkan states and prolong the misery to the besiegers and besieged. Mining, bombardment and starvation were prevalent over the city's gradual destruction and surrender with the Ottomans, to destroy the defences of the city. The fierce joint Greek Navy-Bulgarian 1st Army offensive to take the city for the beginning of 1913, if not Christmas, against the city was repulsed with heavy casualties for the attackers, although the city became less secure with Ottoman losses. It was during this 23 December offensive when the Averof was sunk.

Obviously, the battleships try to force the Strait, while the Army (mostly colonials) land at Gallipoli to take the seaward defences from behind.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

Obviously, the battleships try to force the Strait, while the Army (mostly colonials) land at Gallipoli to take the seaward defences from behind.

Click to expand...

Don't forget the diversionary role played by the Greek Army corps in denying reinforcements for the Ottomans and the exploits of the Greek Navy against the wrecked Ottoman Navy [if there was such a thing after the Italian naval assault]. No colonial troops used by the Greeks and Bulgarians, except for 2 mixed divisions of elderly and low quality army troops with marines, sailors and gunners to assault the peninsula as a diversion.

Intermission

During the same time, the Ottoman islands in the northeast Aegean not occupied by the Italians fell into Greek detachment hands. The island occupations were done en route to the Gallipoli and Constantinople assaults by the Greek Navy.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet sortied to attack Greek ships and threaten the Greeks and Bulgarians with invasion or support for the Ottomans. While surprising for the latter, the former preferred Constantinople under Ottoman hands than Balkan or European hands even with the restrictions imposed on its access through the Black Sea and warm waters, unless they captured the city and straits and placed them under Russian control.
A submarine sighted the Greek cruiser Averof and fired torpedoes. In the first attack on a large warship by submarine torpedoes, the cruiser was struck by 2 torpedoes before sinking. As the Russians were supposed to be neutral or friendly, with the Bulgarians and great powers, the cause of the sinking couldn't be determined. It could be a mine, but a sneak attack by concealed Ottoman torpedo craft or friendly fire from the only Greek submarine in the region, which was lost the day after the attack [24 December] to Ottoman shore batteries, might be likely.

The walls of the city collapsed after the naval bombardment intensified. The Russians lost a pre-dreadnought while opposing the Greek Navy despite the expected superiority, but it was the expected mine or Greek, Serbian, Bulgarian or Ottoman shell. Another was badly damaged simultaneously. After several protests by the Balkan League to Russia for supporting the Ottoman Empire while the attack on Constantinople, the death of the Ottomans and the freedom of transit through the Dardenelles were underway and imminent for Russia, the Russians countermanded that Constantinople should be under Russian hands. Besides, Tsar Nicholas II hadn't mobilized his army and the decision was made to await political repercussions at home and [in great powers] overseas. Over the new year, there were several protests by politicians and citizens over betrayal, but the city was still supposed to be "God's reward and the Third Rome for Russia", not someone else's.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet withdrew on 3 January 1913 in response to the claims, but it had lost 3 battleships [one to shelling, another to torpedoes and one mined, with all losses off Constantinople] and a cruiser [exploded by Bulgarian artillery] for 'nothing' other than stopping the Greek-Bulgarian attack, since the Ottomans were more dangerous than the smaller and friendlier Balkan states. Meanwhile, an International Commission for peace would be organized should Constantinople and/or the Ottoman Empire collapse.

A temporary armistice would be signed between the Ottoman Empire, Russia and the Balkan League, with the sponsorship of the great powers. It was hoped that peace would occur before things get out of control. Meanwhile, the Ottomans mustered the strength to counterattack and gain control of the city and sink a Greek warship, although reduced heavily. This was assisted by the slow transfer of food and ammunition supplies, along with troops, from Asia and the east. The armistice was signed on 5 February 1913, and due to expire two months later. Now, it was time for the peace treaty to be signed.

The Young Turks, under the notorious three Pashas, overthrew the Ottoman government during the peace negotiations within the period of armistice. The opportunity was taken to send supplies from the east, but the railways, city defences and roads were damaged by shelling from Bulgarian-Greek artillery and they had to be repaired. The Greeks sent a cruiser to support the offensive against Epirus. Meanwhile, negotiations were underway for a purchase of the Brazilian dreadnought under British construction to compensate for the loss of the Averof and 3 obsolete battleships [not mentioned earlier]. The Russians wanted another dreadnought to counter the Greeks and Ottomans, but it had to transit through the Dardenelles. Whether the Russian decision to sink the Greek Navy while supporting the siege of Constantinople was necessary or not was unpopular, and the 'rebirth' of the Ottoman Navy was the expected result of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's folly. At least several shells fell on the Ottomans besides the attacks on the Bulgarian coast by light forces and heavy guns that shelled the Greek Navy and Balkan siege artillery.