TLIAW: The Reluctant Republican

Emperor Norton I · Feb 20, 2015

Well, what's all this then?

Hello, British voice of TLIADs. This is my TLIAW.

So you're starting a timeline-in-a-week?

Well, sort of. The "w" is more for "a while".

How long will it take?

I don't know, but it'll be my lazy bastard timeline; less detailed posts than a full timeline, and in a quicker pace.

So who is George Romney and why should I care?

He was the Governor of Michigan, a Moderate Republican and an OTL failed candidate for the 1968 nomination. He was also the man JFK most feared contending with in 1964. Even more so than Nelson Rockefeller. *Hint* *Hint*

Do you even know enough about George Romney?

I know probably as much as anyone else on the site, and even that isn't a lot. Information on him is hard to come by, and Google tends to give you something about George W Bush and Mitt Romney.

So how can you flesh out a timeline?

As best as I can. If anyone has any suggestions or criticisms, feel free to submit them.

Emperor Norton I · Feb 20, 2015

On November 22, 1963, the shape of the 1964 presidential election seemed assured. It would be John F. Kennedy, the popular incumbent elected almost four years before, against the polarizing Arizona Senator, Barry Goldwater. Goldwater had the support of a zealous faction of Republican Conservatives to carry him to the nomination, but he would assuredly alienate the vast majority of voters. It was Kennedy's election to win, and he would do so in a landslide. All that changed at 12:30 PM Central Standard Time. It was a routine campaign trip in the city of Dallas. Three shots, two hit, one fatal. In a stroke of madness, the dream of the New Frontier was dead. And 1964, poised to be a forgotten election of foregone conclusions, would soon be all too complicated.

Vice president Lyndon Johnson, sidelined for years, took command with a renewed sense purpose. Power was what Johnson had sought all his life, and the office of the president was the greatest mantle of power imaginable. Johnson would transform the New Frontier into a Great Society; not just a completion of Kennedy's agenda, but an expansion of it in ways the slain president would never have imagined. Johnson would use Kennedy's martyrdom and his own political weight to see it to fruition. Johnson's major success would be the Civil Rights Act of 1964, outlawing discrimination throughout the United States. The Great Society would be a transformation of American society not seen since Franklin Roosevelt, but history would once again intervene with tragedy.

In 1964, Lady Bird Johnson had been married to Lyndon for nearly thirty years. Though Lyndon Johnson was an accomplished womanizer, Lady Bird remained faithful and brought a grace and dignity to her often crude husband. In 1964, several months before their thirtieth anniversary, Lady Bird Johnson was killed when a routine car ride through Texas turned into an accident. Almost a year after Kennedy's assassination, the White House was once again shocked by an untimely death.

After Lady Bird's death, Lyndon Johnson collapsed into an inescapable depression. Agonized by grief, Johnson begin overeating, overdrinking and obsessively smoking. At 56 years old, he had suffered three major heart attacks in his life. After his first, doctors had warned him if he ever started smoking again, he would kill himself. He knew Johnson men didn't live past 65, but he no longer cared. He didn't know how prophetic that warning was.

Shortly thereafter, Johnson suffered his fourth major heart attack. Had it not been for his secret service detail, Johnson would have died. After nearly 30 years of public service, Johnson had attained the greatest office in the nation, if only fleetingly. And for Johnson, now, that was enough. In a public address to the nation, he would announce that he would no longer seek nor would he accept the nomination of his party for 1964. The 1964 election would now be all too memorable.

Ariosto · Feb 20, 2015

I can't see this ending well for Romney given most in Michigan didn't want him to run. :/

AdmiralBlake · Feb 20, 2015

me likes.
________

Emperor Norton I · Feb 20, 2015

Ariosto said:
I can't see this ending well for Romney given most in Michigan didn't want him to run. :/

Well most of Michigan didn't want him to run under OTL circumstances. Things are getting changed up with the Democrats, and they will also be changed up with the Republican nomination process when I get around to writing that. Not to mention someone else you may be able to guess, as you'll see. Regardless, though, it's my lazy-bastard timeline. It's only meant to be plausible. Have fun with it.

What I haven't be able to work out yet is what happens with the Republican race for the Governorship in Michigan if he runs.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/...orge-romney-1964-republican-primary-president

AdmiralBlake said:
me likes.
________

Danke schoen.

Ariosto · Feb 20, 2015

Emperor Norton I said:
What I haven't be able to work out yet is what happens with the Republican race for the Governorship in Michigan if he runs.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/...orge-romney-1964-republican-primary-president

Well there was someone called "George N. Higgins" according to Our Campaigns who ran against Romney in '64 for Governor, though predictably he didn't get all that much traction and had only previously run for the Republican nomination for a House seat (and lost). Maybe William Milliken gets the nod early?

Thande · Feb 20, 2015

Ah yes, George Romney. I always enjoyed his Kendal Mint Cake.

Oh, that George Romney.

New Deal Democrat · Feb 20, 2015

George Romney was one of those rare figures who could blend social conservatism with a genuine zeal for justice and civil rights. Eager to see this TL

Emperor Norton I · Feb 20, 2015

I should note since writing this, which I really did most of yesterday, I'm starting to get really sick. So pray for my health and for it to get past 30 degrees in the land of the Buffalo wing.

Emperor Norton I · Feb 21, 2015

BTW, title added to the first passage since I realized I needed something so it could be distinguished from my other posts.

Ariosto said:
Well there was someone called "George N. Higgins" according to Our Campaigns who ran against Romney in '64 for Governor, though predictably he didn't get all that much traction and had only previously run for the Republican nomination for a House seat (and lost). Maybe William Milliken gets the nod early?

I could do that. It's not like Michigan gubernatorial politics will play a role in the greater timeline ... or will they? (The answer is no, they won't).

Thande said:
Ah yes, George Romney. I always enjoyed his Kendal Mint Cake.

Oh, that George Romney.

Oh, Britain!

Nckdictator said:
George Romney was one of those rare figures who could blend social conservatism with a genuine zeal for justice and civil rights. Eager to see this TL

The Rockefeller Republicans are more social liberalism/economic conservatism. Romney is, however, likely what we'd call today a "traditionalist". He was very big on the third sector of America per de Tocqueville, which is the social sector; rather than asking the government for help, citizens would first turn to their neighbors. Rot in the social sphere leads to problems with everything across the board. Volunteerism. Etc.

That's going to have to come into play as the timeline goes on because, as much as the OTL Democrats saw the New Deal Coalition unwind while in power, so too will Romney see the Conservatives start to creep up in the Republican party. It doesn't matter that Goldwater loses the nomination in 1964. Seeds are planted already.

037771 said:
Colour me interested - George Romney deserves a lot more attention on this site. Subscribed.

Looks like the path to the Dem nomination will be a bloody one. I can see LBJ being capricious enough to deny RFK a decent stab, and I'm also sure that he wouldn't exactly be keen on leaving George Wallace's dark horse campaign alone (his share of the vote in Wisconsin that year was disturbingly high.) Bearing all that in mind, Senator Humphrey might be in for his best chance yet for the presidency...

I think Romney will have to contend with Rockefeller too. Although the two were very chummy by 1968, that was partly because it looked like NAR had exhausted his chances since his run against Goldwater in '64, and because Romney hadn't made a prominent bid (IIRC, like Nixon, he was 'open' to having his name tossed into a possible draft at a brokered convention.) However, ITTL, Rocky is the (theoretical) favourite, given his disproportionate prominence back in 1960. It's not particularly hard to push him out of contention given his campaign's dismal organisation in New Hampshire, but Romney would still have a fight on his hands.

The thing is its late enough in the game where the Democratic primaries were already going. In the OTL, Johnson had doubts about running, but nobody thought he would seriously drop out. A bunch of favorite son candidates ran in his place, not counting George Wallace who was an insurgent but was only on the ballot in I think 3 primary states. The thing is here that the rug is pulled out from under everyone last minute, and Johnson legitimately does not run. So you have all these favorite son candidates who never intended to seriously run, and who probably don't actually want the nomination, and now that's what there is.

In lieu of Johnson, it'd probably be a backroom election where the party bosses nominate someone else outside of the primary. I think I was going to make mention in an upcoming post about having to pick from the leftovers of 1960, meaning Hubert Humphrey.

If ya'll could, give me feedback on how the convention might go. I'm not sure about the intrapolitics of the nomination.

On the Kennedy issue, it depends how I feel. I'm really having LBJ as this emotional wreck ready to finish out his term and doing what he can in the meantime. So he may not have the energy to go after Kennedy. I also have an interest in the idea of Kennedy being the running mate on a losing ticket and then not being able to be Senator in 1964, and having to wait or look elsewhere for his elected office. On the other hand, its interesting to have someone like Pat Brown as the running mate, and no Kennedy means a weaker ticket in terms of electoral votes which helps Romney. And Kennedy has a clear path to success thereafter.

In terms of the Republican primary, my issue is not really weakening Rockefeller as he already had so many problems. I'm more weakening Goldwater. And I'm using a totally OTL means of doing that which almost happened. So those two are more on level, and Goldie is weaker than the OTL, and in comes Romney to save the day.

Emperor Norton I · Feb 22, 2015

Admittedly, the timeline is on "floating time" in regards to the issues you've mentioned. The hint so far is that all that stuff concerning LBJ may have happened after the Civil Rights Act and close to the convention. However, it may have happened before the Civil Rights Act but still in 1964 and out of the blue; the primaries lasted quite a number of months so its going to be after everything is underway and unexpected regardless. I keep it kind of vague.

It's not some secret thing either where I'm Uatu the Watcher and know for sure every date and everything is solid but I'm teasing you. I'm thinking on the page. I know what I want, I know the basic gist of whats going to happen, but some of the details I leave vague. And they'll probably get fleshed out in upcoming posts.

While I'm on the topic, LBJ's also not the only POD. There's obviously the issue of Romney, and then there'll be a slight tweak concerning Goldie as mentioned. Which the Goldwater thing is something from the OTL that nearly occurred. (Please no one try to guess at it).

*****

EDIT:

BTW, guys, I added a new title bar to the story post. I intend to do that throughout the timeline. If you click it, I link to the song.
One, its a pain in the butt in the making, since I'll need a title first before I post what I've written. Two, its potentially dangerous since Youtube content can be taken down in an instant. But, it's experimenting with what I'll be doing with "Strange Days" anyway, and it helps the vibe.

Emperor Norton I · Feb 26, 2015

In 1964, America looked to be a society that had never been more at peace with itself. To the average American, the ideal of peace and prosperity in suburbia had been achieved, or was just in reach. The Baby Boomer generation had been raised being told they were different. They would not be faced with depression or world war. They would enter colleges in record numbers. And they would come to enjoy the Post-War American dream. Entering their teenage years and twenties, they took the promises of their parents and country very seriously.

No one had seemed to embody this Post-War optimism more than President Kennedy. Whereas Eisenhower had been a president for their parents' generation, Kennedy would belong to the sixties generation. Kennedy was young and vibrant, and called on Americans to improve their nation and society. The New Frontier was a call for the transformation of the outer world and the inner soul of Man. President Kennedy's death shocked all Americans, but it hurt no one more than the youth. Presidents, and dreams, were not supposed to be killed. Not in the America they had been raised to believe in.

The winter after Kennedy's assassination would be long and bitter. And beneath the surface, a haunting, indescribable hurt lingered in American society. Kennedy's successor would be Lyndon Johnson. The new president did not feel legitimate, even to himself, but he reassured America. He told America that he also grieved, and Kennedy's dreams would be completed in his memory. Johnson was the president America needed. However, as America began a return to normality, tragedy struck once again. The First Lady of the United States was killed in a car accident. It was an incident that shook even President Johnson. In the intervening days to her funeral, the White House received thousands of letters offering condolences to the President on the death of his wife. Though Johnson maintained a strong outward demeanor, he was devastated. This tragedy would pale in comparison to what occurred next.

In spring of 1964, Johnson suffered a massive heart attack. Like Kennedy's death several months prior, the news spread like wildfire. The American people waited to know if another president would die. Had it not been for the quick work of the Secret Service, he may have. Though Johnson would live, the confidence of America was once again shaken to its core. They had lost a President and a First Lady, and had nearly and fearfully lost another President. For several days as Johnson recovered, there was no Chief Executive of the nation. The closest was John McCormack, who served as Acting President for a period of time; the Speaker of the House was over seventy years old. Nothing, after all, had been passed to ensure the appointment of a Vice President under Johnson. It was not thought such an amendment was needed as Eisenhower left office and Kennedy would never die. The final shock would be Johnson's televised address to the nation that he would not run for his party's nomination in 1964. Although he had been publicly undecided about running in 1964, Johnson's nomination had been a foregone conclusion. The American people needed certainty, and in a matter of months, their world was all too uncertain.

Ariosto · Feb 27, 2015

037771 said:
Well, if you have a cluster of favourite son candidates in the primary states, you still have all of the bosses in the non-primary states in play. No matter what time Johnson withdraws, I think they'll still give heavy consideration to whomever he recommends, especially given such an (accidentally) crowded field. And I think, given that this really is the high-point of liberalism in the country, let alone the Democratic Party, I think he'll probably throw the weight of the bully pulpit behind Hubert Humphrey. LBJ knew how much HHH wanted the job, and he knew he had bona fides in the primary states (sans Jack Kennedy, of course)

A genuinely brokered Democratic convention from 1956-1968 is somewhere where Johnson or his agents would thrive, I believe. With JFK gone, LBJ still has a fair amount of residual fond memories to call in throughout the Midwest from his Senate days, supplemented by the power of incumbency. He can call those in, and add them to Humphrey's considerable strength in the early primary states, who I think would just declare allegiance to him.

This won't win HHH unanimity on the floor, however - there's still the South to contend with, who might try some last minute machinations to broker a convention in their favour by nominating a seeming moderate alternative, or Wallace followed by a walkout - but I'd think a North/Midwest coalition of delegates would probably hold. This all might be exacerbated by how Humphrey chooses to approach the MFDP issue in the Mississippi delegation.

From what little I can gather Humphrey was always the favorite among the delegates even when including favorite sons among the majority of the delegations, having pluralities in a few others, but being notably absent in the South when the delegates were polled; the Southerners themselves preferred either Eugene McCarthy or Mike Mansfield (the latter who would never run given his wife).

I tried looking up favorite-sons for the '64 convention to identify other candidates besides the obvious (Pat Brown of California, John Reynolds of Wisconsin, Albert Porter of Ohio, Matthew Walsh of Indiana, Jennings Randolph of West Virginia, Daniel Brewster of Maryland), but the only one I have encountered was Mayor Robert Wagner of New York.

I do however have a list of the Favorite-Sons from '68 that I formulated years ago:

Alaska: Unknown (For now act as if not having one)
Arkansas: Unknown (For now act as if not having one)
California: Attorney Thomas Lynch (Netted ~11% of the vote in the primary)
Connecticut: Governor John Dempsey
Delaware: Governor Charles L. Terry Jr.
District of Columbia: Reverend Channing Phillips
Florida: Senator George Smathers
Georgia: Governor Lester Maddox (Active Candidate for our Purposes, though limited)
Illinois: Governor Otto Kerner (the delegates were selected separately from the primary)
Indiana: Governor Roger Branigan (Notably Failed to Kennedy)
Indiana: Senator Birch Bayh (Mentioned, but I think he was the rally figure for Kennedy's delegates)
Iowa: Senator Harold Hughes (Definitely was the rally figure for Kennedy's Iowa delegates)
Louisiana: Governor John McKeithen
Maine: Senator Edmund Muskie
New Jersey: Governor Richard Hughes (the delegates were selected separately from the primary)
New York: Representative Joseph Resnick (Failed by a sizable margin; don't know how much)
North Carolina: Governor Dan Moore (notably supported no-one)
North Dakota: Governor William L. Guy
Ohio: Senator Stephen Young
Pennsylvania: Senator Joseph Clark (the delegates were selected separately from the primary)
South Carolina: Governor Robert McNair
Tennessee: Governor Buford Ellington
Texas: Governor John Connally
Utah: Governor Calvin Rampton
Virginia: Governor Mills Godwin (notably a supporter of Kennedy before his assassination)
West Virginia: Governor Hulett C. Smith

So of these I'd guess:

Alabama: Governor George Wallace
Alaska: Governor William A. Egen
Arkansas: Governor Orval Faubus
California: Governor Pat Brown (Definite)
Connecticut: Governor John Dempsey
Delaware: Governor Elbert Carvel
Georgia: Governor Carl Sanders
Illinois: Governor Otto Kerner
Indiana: Governor Matthew Welsh (Definite)
Iowa: Governor Harold Hughes (might instead go for an actual candidate)
Louisiana: Governor John McKeithen
Maine: Senator Edmund Muskie
Minnesota: Senator Hubert Humphrey (Definite)
New Jersey: Governor Richard Hughes
New York: Mayor Robert Wagner (Definite).
North Carolina: Governor Terry Sanford
North Dakota: Governor William Guy
Ohio: Cuyahoga County Party Chairman Albert Porter (Definite)
Pennsylvania: Senator Joseph Clark
South Carolina: Governor Donald Russell
Tennessee: Governor Frank Clement
Texas: President Lyndon Johnson or Governor John Connally
Utah: Senator Frank Moss
Virginia: Governor Albertis Harrison
West Virginia: Senator Jennings Randoplh (Definite)

So there are going to be quite a few favorite-son delegations going to the convention, and a lot of dealing going on behind the scenes.

Ariosto · Feb 27, 2015

037771 said:
Was this for the VP preferences in '64 or the presidential nomination in '68?

Admittedly it was for VP preferences in '64 rather than Presidential preferences, so it is far from a perfect gauge as to whether those same persons would support Humphrey for the Presidential slot, but it is about the closest gauge we have that was actually taken or done. It was speculated though that a lot of his support (and his lack of support in the South) was because of his open championing of Civil Rights, which could change here.

037771 said:
Mind if I borrow this for Watchtower? I promise I'll hand it back once I'm done with it.

You may, I essentially guessed on most of them and don't plan on using it for anything.

Rule of thumb I've found is that favorite-sons in non-primary states are often the Governors should the party hold that office, or the senior most Senator of that party. Far from perfect method however, and I could certainly be wrong with some states not listed having favorite-sons, and vice versa.

BonnieBlue85 · Feb 27, 2015

Emperor Norton I said:
Johnson would use Kennedy's martyrdom and his own political weight to see it to fruition. Johnson's major success would be the Civil Rights Act of 1964, outlawing discrimination throughout the United States. The Great Society would be a transformation of American society not seen since Franklin Roosevelt, but history would once again intervene with tragedy.

In 1964, Lady Bird Johnson had been married to Lyndon for nearly thirty years. Though Lyndon Johnson was an accomplished womanizer, Lady Bird remained faithful and brought a grace and dignity to her often crude husband. In 1964, several months before their thirtieth anniversary, Lady Bird Johnson was killed when a routine car ride through Texas turned into an accident. Almost a year after Kennedy's assassination, the White House was once again shocked by an untimely death.

Oh, interesting TL.

Poor LBJ, hope he recovers from his depressing.

As an LBJ nerd, I know their wedding anniversary was on November 17th. So...when did she die? I think you need more details about that. Also, here's the 64,000 question: The Gulf of Tonkin incident in August 1964, as well as Vietnam in general. In spite of my issues, I look forward to seeing what happens next.

One more thing: the formatting of the story is weird. You have to scroll back and forth to read the lines, which gets a bit annoying. Also, does the 1964 Civil Rights Act get passed or not? It's not clear.

Emperor Norton I · Feb 27, 2015

A head's up: the primary process, inter party politics concerning it, nomination process, etc, especially with the complexity I set up makes my head spin. Haylp! Or I could just cover it with detailed vagueness.

Secondly, the next update can be a few things: The Democratic primaries, the Republican primaries, a combination of both in one, or a snippet on George Romney. Not sure which to go into next.

BonnieBlue85 said:
Oh, interesting TL. Poor LBJ, hope he recovers from his depressing. As an LBJ nerd, I know their wedding anniversary was on November 17th. So...when did she die? I think you need more details about that.

Spring 1964.

Also, here's the 64,000 question: The Gulf of Tonkin incident in August 1964, as well as Vietnam in general.

Pretty much OTL. Where it goes from here, well...

In spite of my issues, I look forward to seeing what happens next.

Thankee.

One more thing: the formatting of the story is weird. You have to scroll back and forth to read the lines, which gets a bit annoying. Also, does the 1964 Civil Rights Act get passed or not? It's not clear.

Concerning formatting, I don't have that issue with my computer. (Link to my computer). Does anyone else have that issue?

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was passed.

Statesman · Feb 27, 2015

Emperor Norton I said:
Concerning formatting, I don't have that issue with my computer. (Link to my computer). Does anyone else have that issue?

I do. For me it's the title bar that is too long.

Other than that (sorry that I started my first comment with that) I'm really excited for what's going on here.

Emperor Norton I · Feb 28, 2015

Statesman said:
I do. For me it's the title bar that is too long.

Other than that (sorry that I started my first comment with that) I'm really excited for what's going on here.

Danke schoen.
What if I shrunk it to the width of the header image from the OP?

EDIT: That's done. Tell me if there are still issues.

BonnieBlue85 · Feb 28, 2015

Thank you for the edit! Much easier to read now. Also, thanks for addressing my issues. I appreciate it.

Ariosto · Feb 28, 2015

Emperor Norton I said:
A head's up: the primary process, inter party politics concerning it, nomination process, etc, especially with the complexity I set up makes my head spin. Haylp! Or I could just cover it with detailed vagueness.

Well the delegations were normally controlled by favorite-son candidates as I mentioned, and I listed those states which had favorite-sons in '68 and tried to apply them here to '64 for the Democratic Party. I have no idea how they might react under these circumstances since they were essentially pledged to Johnson "de-facto" before, and I am unaware of the feelings among the delegation leaders who would be the ones strong-arming the delegates to follow a certain lead. I used to have the delegate counts (though I don't know if they were precise for '64) for the Republican and Democratic Conventions by state, but they are still somewhere on the hard-drive of my "broken computer" (in reality its just the monitor that has gone), and that is somewhere in the attic.

Now given this situation, I have to agree that Lyndon Johnson is going to do what he can to work behind the scenes and try to get the delegates to line up behind one of his three picks for the Vice Presidency; Hubert Humphrey (who he favored), Eugene McCarthy, or Thomas Dodd. Each have their strengths and weaknesses among the delegates, but they would almost certainly have to contend with a fourth candidate in the form of a draft for Robert Kennedy. Johnson will do what he can to avoid any draft as he did in OTL but, with Johnson not contesting the Presidential nomination, I feel certain there will be a very powerful undercurrent that may allow Robert Kennedy, should he choose to contest, eclipse any choice Johnson puts forward; the key though is whether Kennedy would encourage or recognize a draft movement among the delegates.

Besides Kennedy though who would be the strongest, any number of candidates could arise, either testing the waters themselves or being drafted like Kennedy. Given this situation, even with Johnson and the Party Bosses cooperating, I believe that the nomination is RFK's for the taking should he choose to take it.

I do remember though that the Goldwater was essentially an overpowered version of Ron Paul when it came to the Caucuses, and his people steamrolled their way through in just about all of them except those in the Northeast where Rockefeller managed to have an edge. Even with a defeat in California and the loss of those delegates, Goldwater would have been within spiting distance of the nomination, and you might very well have had a Republican version of the '24 Democratic Convention with neither side willing to buckle to the other. Then again, I'm not to sure that George Romney would be the unity candidate capable of pulling the party together, though he might just capture enough delegates to garner the nomination should the Liberal bloc unify behind him.

George Wallace would be running third party as well given the only reason why he didn't was because Goldwater managed to appeal to those voters in the South whom he was courting. Probably wouldn't break out of the trifecta of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama though, with potential in South Carolina.