TLIAM: Keys to the White House I - A Thousand Points of Light

Keys to the White House I - A Thousand Points of Light
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When the final ballots were cast, many wonder when the 1992 election became such a close affair. Coming off of the tremendously successful military action, President George HW Bush’s had the highest approval rating ever recorded. Seen as a successful caretaker in the wake of the Cold War’s end, Bush looked unbeatable in the lead up to the Presidential primaries. He had even managed to quiet one of his loudest critics by sending Ross Perot, after meeting the man by chance in 1991, to Vietnam to normalize relations there. Unfortunately for the President, this unprecedented popularity was built on quicksand, just waiting for the right catalyst to bring it crumbling down. The economy began to falter just in time for President Bush’s reelection campaign, while a broken campaign promise about taxes began to haunt him. The aura of invincibility that the President had late in 1991 was slowly dissolving.

When the campaign season began, that aura of invincibility remained unblemished. High profile candidates, like Governor Mario Cuomo, opted to chalk up 1992 as a lost cause, and perhaps make a run in 1996. Lacking such a high-profile candidate, a number of lesser known figures would contest the Democratic nomination. Senator Tom Harkin, a liberal populist from Iowa, was expected to win his home state and hoped to appeal to labor nationwide. Former Senator Paul Tsongas, a fiscal conservative from the state of Massachusetts, was looking to use a big win in New Hampshire to build momentum going into the rest of the primaries. Former Governor Jerry Brown, whose unconventional policy initiatives as California Governor and two previous Presidential runs painted him as a political oddity, ran as a Washington outsider who transcended the left or right. Senator Kerrey, with a background of military service and success at business, lined up as a potential consensus choice. Governor Bill Clinton, a centrist New Democrat from the conservative Arkansas, was the least known to the populace at large but wanted to shake up the campaign.

Clinton proved charismatic and an able politician, which helped throughout the campaign. After a woman named Gennifer Flowers made allegations of an affair with the Governor, Clinton would come out unscathed after he rebutted the allegations on 60 Minutes alongside his wife Hillary. His surprise second place finish in New Hampshire, after Harkin’s unsurprising Iowa win, helped to paint him as a “Comeback Kid”. Tsongas’, win in New Hampshire was lackluster, undermining his campaign and foretelling his eventual withdrawal a month after the primary and Harkin would never spark any support outside of his own home state. Clinton would settle into the front-runner position, as Brown continued his insurgent campaign for President scoring a few surprise wins along the way. In the end Brown was undone by a number of gaffes which Clinton’s well oiled political machinery took advantage of to secure sizable wins in New York and Wisconsin. Though Brown continued his campaign all the way to the convention, Bill Clinton was the nominee. On the eve of the convention, Clinton chose Senator Al Gore as his running mate; this choice wouldn't be geographically beneficial but it highlighted the campaign themes of moderation and the passing of the torch to a new generation.

Despite his popularity nationwide, President Bush did have many critics from within his own party. Conservative Commentator Pat Buchanan launched a long shot campaign, focusing on the economically fragile and conservative state of New Hampshire. Buchanan would hold the President to task for breaking his “read my lips, no new taxes” pledge, riling up grassroots support within the state. The President would win the state with a slight majority, but Buchanan’s surprisingly large showing led to increased campaign donations and hope for an upset in Georgia. Unfortunately for Buchanan, Bush was just too popular and the President would sweep the rest of the primary states sinking the upstart campaign. Unsurprisingly, Bush would have his Vice President, Dan Quayle, remain on the ticket, despite the man’s continual gaffes. Bush was going to campaign on the successes of his administration, and that required a show of confidence in every aspect of his administration. Though, just to sure up his conservative base in the wake of the declining economy, Pat Buchanan would be given the leeway to denounce progressives in his “culture war” speech at the convention.

Though his polling numbers were evaporating, the President maintained a consistent lead in the polls against Clinton. Bush would focus on the characters of the candidates, with his campaign spreading allegations that Clinton had dodged the draft as well as cheating on his wife. None of these could stick to Clinton, and the Democratic ticket would launch a very successful bus tour across the nation touting the need to end the stagnation of the Bush years. Bush’s defense of his foreign policy began to seem tone deaf as millions of Americans were looking for economic relief. It seemed that many were clamoring for a change, and the previously unbeatable Bush was in a dead heat with his challenger. The President would be able to stem the bleeding in the debates, where he could directly contrast his experience with Clinton’s. When the nation turned out to vote, no one was quite sure how the election would turn out, and the popular and electoral votes proved incredibly close. Unfortunately for Bill Clinton, despite his best efforts the American people stuck with their President, giving George Bush four more years in office.



1992 Presidential Election

Bush/Quayle 275 EV - 48.4%
Clinton/Gore 263 EV - 47.9% ​

The relief felt by the Bush administration with the election and inauguration behind them would vanish on February 26, 1993. Ramzi Yousef parked a van containing a bomb next to the the concrete of the North Tower of the World Trade Center. The North Tower came down, with the South Tower surviving but heavily damaged. Thousands were killed in the wake of the attack, with many more being injured. At first, the cause of the explosion was unknown, and it would take days for the investigation to uncover the nature of the attack, with planes being grounded until more information was found. Over the course of the next few weeks several of those involved, including Yousef himself, were apprehended by federal authorities and questioned. Before long, connections to Yousef’s uncle, Kalid Sheik Mohammed who was residing in Qatar with his family, and a group called Al Queda that originated in Afghanistan. When the Bush administration demanded that the Qatar government hand over Mohammed, he fled, only to be spotted again in Afghanistan. Once the connections were made, and with Afghanistan's Civil War preventing a coherent government from being able to answer to American demands, Bush announced a “Global War Against Terrorism” calling on a coalition of UN and NATO forces to launch military forces into Afghanistan to root out Al Queda and capture Mohammaed. Allied forces would support the Islamic State of Afghanistan while combing the countryside for terror cells, ultimately resulting in the Kalid Sheik Mohammed’s capture and the entrenchment of the Islamic State as the defacto government of Afghanistan. Despite the President’s instincts telling him to pull troops out of Afghanistan after meeting initial objectives, the new Afghani government and Secretary of Defence Cheney convinced the President to maintain peace-keeping troops in the country.

Within a few months of the close of major operations in Afghanistan, the Global War Against Terrorism would pivot into its next “Global” phase. After Russia’s efforts in Northern Afghanistan, despite their deep problems back home, Bush would successfully lobby for a new Marshall Plan, often dubbed the Baker Plan, steamrolling conservative objections, for Russia to support this new ally while they face this new threat. Cementing this change in strategy, and destroying the foundation of American Liberty if some commentators were to be believed, Russia was inducted into NATO. Eastern Europe was horrified, but as far as Bush was concerned that was of small concern when there needed to be greater unity as the Allied forces were preparing for more operations abroad. NATO and the UN had turned its eyes on Sudan, where many Al Queda leaders had set up shop and were directing acts of terror within Afghanistan. When President Bashir refused to permit foreign troops on his sovereign soil, all of the crimes committed by his regime were used as casus beli to declare him an ally of Al Queda and Sudan was invaded in the summer of 1994. Once again, Allied forces quickly triumphed in their initial objectives with President Bashir and Osama Bin Laden, leader of Al Queda, were killed by military forces as the invasion proceded. Former President Ahmed Al-Mirghani was installed as leader of the nation and victory was declared. President Bush had responded with confidence to the enemies of America, and brought those responsible for 2/26 to justice.

Despite the rosy view of the Bush administration by foreign observers, all was not well back home. Though no one could doubt the efficacy of the President’s actions after the 2/26 attack, many questioned how a President in his second term could allow such a thing to happen. Doubts about the ability of the government to prevent future attacks persisted even after the passage of the Securities Act which would also spark outrage from the ACLU and other civil libertarians. The War Against Terrorism was broadly popular, but as American soldiers began to be killed or wounded after Al Queda and its allies had been allegedly destroyed, confidence in the Bush administration began to wane further. When all of this is put alongside the poor economy, the projected uptick in late 1992 was completely erased after 2/26, eroded support for the Bush administration and the Republican Party as demonstrated by the drubbings of the party in the 1994 midterms. Coming out of 1994, and stretching into 1996, liberals were feeling vindicated and excited; moderates were just looking for relief; and conservatives were feeling dejected, left out in the cold by the President, and pinning their hopes for the future on the Vice President.

When Vice President Dan Quayle announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination in the 1996 election, he instantly became the front-runner in the race. The moderates in the Republican Party held their tongue, as though the man was known for his conservatism and gaffes, Bush had gotten Quayle to commit to a continuation of his policies over the next four years. Though Quayle had committed a few of his famous gaffes, it seemed that he would waltz into the Republican nomination if he hadn’t criticized the inclusion of Russia in NATO in an offhand comment during an interview. When Quayle refused to walk back the comments, and over Bush’s pleas for a unified front in the election, Secretary of State Baker threw his hat into the ring as the true successor of Bush’s legacy. The Republican nomination suddenly became a brawl, with Baker and Quayle splitting the two conservative and moderate supporters of the President and Senator Dole suddenly becoming a contender by support splitting. As Baker attacked Quayle’s competency, who in return questioned Baker’s ethics and conservative credentials, it would be Dole who wins Iowa almost out of exhaustion. The expected boost to momentum was undone as Baker won New Hampshire and Quayle won South Carolina. Lacking funding or support, Dole left the race, and Super Tuesday became a competition between the conservative and moderate wings of the Republican Party; a fight that conservatives won...barely. Quayle would edge out Baker on Super Tuesday, which would give him enough momentum to edge him out over the rest of the primary season. Dan Quayle would be nominated for President, as expected back in 1995, but only after a damaging primary season. Senator Dole was selected for Vice President in an attempt to restore credibility to the Republican ticket.

After 16 years of Republican rule, the Democrats could sense that party fatigue had set in amongst the American people. Unlike 1992, it seemed that every Democrat of note looked to be contesting the upcoming election. Early speculation that Governor Bill Clinton would be making a second comeback in 1996 were put to rest when marital and financial problems came to light making another term for the Governor look like a fight; the Clinton’s would put their efforts into a Senate bid for Hillary Clinton instead. Instead, the first candidate to announce would be the outspoken and witty Governor of Texas, Ann Richards who had survived a challenge from Republican Ray Hollis in 1994. Positioning herself as a sensible progressive, she would spark a lot of excitement for the potential breaking of the glass ceiling but questions of her age and the “readiness” of the nation for a female President would follow her into the primaries. Not too long after Senator Majority Leader Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for Vice President in 1992, announced his candidacy as the successor to the New Democratic label and highlighting his leadership in the Senate. Senator Paul Wellstone made a little noticed bid as a “true” progressive and failed to get much traction. In late 1995, the famed “Hamlet on the Hudson”, Governor Mario Cuomo, announced his candidacy for the Presidency, running as a liberal and able administrator. Senator Sam Nunn, intent on retiring from the Senate anyway, would file for the Iowa caucuses at the last possible moment, highlighting his foreign policy experience as being what’s necessary to guide America through the remainder of the millenium. The initial stages of the campaign were very heated as each candidate laid out their vision for the next four years, but the party would quickly line up behind one candidate. The Southern Democrats would split each other’s votes in Iowa and then South Carolina, allowing Cuomo to pick up surprise wins in those states, all but securing his nomination in March. While the Republicans were bloodying themselves, the Democrats came together in deciding their vision for the future. Senator Sam Nunn, as the only other Democrat to win states in the primaries, was passed over unexpectedly for Vice President as Cuomo asked Richards to serve at the bottom of the ticket.

In the fall campaign, Vice President Quayle would continue to tie himself to the successes of the Bush Administration, but the brutal primary season left him stuff with doubts over his involvement in those successes while still being tied to its failures. Cuomo and Richards would borrow from the Clinton/Gore campaign playbook four years previously, going from state to state and demanding a change for economic prosperity. The big difference being that the two Democrats made sure that there was a prominent Senator or elder statesmen at these events to get some of their foreign and military shine; Senator John Kerry in New England, Senator Joe Biden in the Mid-Atlantic, Senator Al Gore in the South, and Senator Sam Nunn just about everywhere else. Quayle’s stumbles on the trail were only made worse when he appeared confused and ill informed in the Presidential debates against the practiced and poised Cuomo. And though Dole would make up some ground in the debate with Richards, and the other Quayle/Cuomo debates were a bit more even keeled, it seemed to be too little too late. When the ballots were cast it was clear that Mario Cuomo had been decisively elected the next President of the United States.



1996 Presidential Election

Cuomo/Richards 360 EV - 53.44%
Quayle/Dole 178 EV - 44.91% ​

As the first Democrat elected to the Presidency in 20 years, Cuomo wasn’t going to take any chances that could undermine his administration; he refused to be another Carter. He would need an enforcer in his administration to ensure a pristine and able executive staff, while moving the President’s agenda through Congress. To fill that role, Cuomo would appoint his campaign manager and son, Andrew, to the role of Chief of Staff, deflecting accusations of nepotism by coyly making reference to the Cuomo-Kennedy connection and the relationship between JFK and RFK. Richards would spearhead the search for esteemed candidates, working with Majority Leader Gore to head off any potential problems with the upcoming confirmation hearings. The transition would prove to be a fairly smooth one, with Bush and Cuomo developing a bit of a rapport in the intervening months, and the incoming Cuomo administration would have few hiccups in focusing on his agenda.

While the President and Vice President were focused on domestic concerns, Secretary of State Biden and Secretary of Defense Sam Nunn were given a tremendous amount of leeway in guiding the nation through the next four years of the War Against Terror. Nunn’s focus was on preventing the proliferation of nuclear material to groups that meant ill will towards the United States. Finding that continued troop deployments in Sudan and Afghanistan would merely sap America and its allies ability and willingness to prevent such a crisis, would work on scaling down the American presence in those nations. Biden had a special interest in the Balkans, and would work in concordance with Russian President Yeltsin, as well as his successor Primakov, to end ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia and Serbia. While successful in the short term, it was clear that the Eastern European nations, with a few exceptions, were resentful of what they saw as America supporting the restoration of Russian hegemony. But this international cooperation would bear some fruit when Biden and Nunn would facilitate an unprecedentedly large nuclear reduction treaty, with a theoretical goal of total disarmament over the next few decades. Presidents Cuomo, Balladur, Primakov and Prime Minister Brown would meet in Brussels to sign the agreement in 1999. China, India and the newest nuclear power, Pakistan, would pointedly refuse to participate citing tension with each other as being the reason they couldn’t entertain the idea and Israel had no comment on the situation at all. Biden and Nunn would vow to focus on Asia in a second Cuomo administration. Despite criticism from conservative observers directed at a seeming lack of follow through in the War Against Terrorism, as no major military engagements were initiated during this time period beyond NATO intervention in the Balkans, no further terror attacks occurred on American soil.

While Biden and Nunn were managing foreign affairs, Cuomo and Richards focused on the issues that won them the election, relief for the American people. Cuomo would work with Majority Leader Gore and Speaker Foley to craft a healthcare plan that would be able to pass through Congress. The end result, after Minority Leaders Armey and Cochran were included in crafting the legislation, included matching funding with states to cover children’s health insurance, tax incentives for businesses that provide private insurance, protections for people with pre-existing conditions, amongst other considerations. Coumo’s incredibly controversial “Voluntary Opt-In to Medicare” would be allowed an up and down vote in a separate piece of legislation, and passed both chambers by a very narrow margin. While Richards “National Robin Hood Education Plan” would quite get where she wanted it, more funding was put into failing school districts and stricter teacher competency exams were coupled with higher salaries. To better combat the flagging economy, a stimulus package was passed for states to create job programs and initiate infrastructure programs. A proposed assault weapon ban would be long delayed and a watered down piece of legislation would only pass after a spate of school shootings later in Cuomo’s term. Cuomo would get one last achievement through before the Republicans dented the Democratic majorities in both chambers, when he appointed Judges Sotomayor and Ginsburg to the Supreme Court in 1998.

Cuomo and the Democrats were feeling pretty confident going into the 2000 election. The Cuomo administration had several achievements under their belt, and the economy was undeniably on an upward trend; even the downturn in the up till then ever growing internet industry could hurt the American economy too much. Sure Cuomo couldn’t get the Senate to get on board with the Kyoto Protocol and the work on education was only partly done, but that’s what second terms were for, weren’t they? Despite an attempted conservative challenge by Governor Zell Miller, which imploded after a spectacular defeat in Iowa, Cuomo would face little serious resistance to his renomination. Running again with Richards at his side, the two politicians would run on their successes with a promise of more.

The Republicans found themselves in much the same boat as the Democrats in 1992 had, with little hope that a sudden economic downturn would provide relief. To Republican observers, the only thing to get excited about was the rematch between former Senator Dole and former Secretary of State Baker that seemed to be shaping up again in this election. Dole and Baker had never gotten more than cordial after Dole was given the second position on the Republican administration and the word from those in the know was that Baker had transferred his animosity towards Quayle onto Dole. The Republican primary debates were vicious affairs with Baker and Dole holding nothing back, and other candidate like Senator McCain fighting for screen time. The edge was given to Baker in the press, perhaps due to him seeming much younger by comparison and the aura of loss that hovered around Dole. But, despite the prediction of pundits, a Dole ad blitz led to a repeat of his 1996 win in Iowa. Unfortunately for Dole, he would once again be unable to capitalize on this victory as New Hampshire, sick of the whole nature of the race, voting for McCain unexpectedly, and South Carolina went for James Baker. And, as is so often the case, as goes South Carolina so goes the Republican nomination; though it wouldn’t be until late April that Baker would get enough delegates to confirm his victory. In a surprise move, Baker would select House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich, known in conservative circles for the American Contract he penned in the wake of the 1994 midterm losses.

Baker would run as a distinguished statesman, deliberately calling upon the image of the Bush administration, while Gingrich would make more deliberate attacks on the campaign trail. They would call for more aggressive action abroad, of governmental and welfare reform, of lower taxes, all in an appeal that they would take the nation to better places than where it was now. It was straight from a page in either Alf Landon or Walter Mondale’s books on how to lose a hopeless election with dignity. With an easy confidence, Cuomo and Richards would travel the country asking the country for four more years.

And the people were more than happy to give it to them.


2000 Presidential Election

Cuomo/Richards 363 EV - 54.70%
Baker/Gingrich 175 EV - 42.80% ​