Lets just say,in a stroke of luck,the Commune succeeded,and revolutionize France(and Belgium).
Now,what's the consequence of it?
Now,what's the consequence of it?
Consequences of :Succesful Paris Commune
- Thread starter AudieonAHCom
- Start date
dead_wolf
Banned
"Complete anarchy" is a tad hyperbole, but there certainly will be a civil war. I expect it to look like 1848 writ large, especially the lead-up to the June Days.
dead_wolf
Banned
Short term, civil war. "Successful Paris Commune" has a lot of implications, among them, IMHO, that the parallel uprisings in Lyon, Grenoble, etc. are all also "successful," which means the communards are going to have both a large and wide enough base to very likely win. There's also the Germans to consider though, and whether or not they get involved, and if they do to what degree, and how successful they are, etc. The fallout will be interesting. The Third Republic had plenty of political drama walking a tight rope between far right (monarchist), right, left, and far left (radicals like the communards). I expect at some point a communard France would have to deal with a very real and very powerful attempt to restore the monarchy. In fact I almost expect a communard France to have to deal with recurring waves of Carlist-esque insurrections.
It's important to note that the communards weren't Marxist, at least not in a sense that jives with 20th century OTL experiences of communism or socialism, and certainly not in a way that Marx would have agreed with. Speaking of Marx, he might not have enough clout at Hague to force the "Bakuninist" anarchist out of the First International, which will have serious impact.
Well,we dont need Marx or anyone,we arleady have Blanqui,the French Proto-Lenin Figure
dead_wolf
Banned
Oh yeah certainly. My point was that when most people think about successful Paris commune they seem to imagine a French Soviet Union, when really it'd be quite different. Beyond Blanqui there's also all the other survivors of 1848 and the new generation of French socialists that served in the commune; Pyat, Rochefort, Delescluze, Varlin, Malon, Ferré, Michel, Allemane, Vaillant, etc. etc. Hell Proudhon has only been dead a few years at this point and his influence was still quite powerful over the French left.
Blanqui didn't believe in the proletariat rising up to throw off their chains - rather, he believed in a small, secret cabal covertly taking power and then introducing socialist policy from the top down.
dead_wolf
Banned
Yes yes I know, I was asking TheTimeRanger to expand on why he brought Blanqui up. It was a vague quip that needed more info, which he provided after my prompt.
Well,despite the age,he was the only one who's able to galvanize a mass-and possesed Leninian traits.
dead_wolf
Banned
Oh again agreed. Blanqui's the only one of the lot with an once of charisma and the decisive boldness needed to lead a revolution, something we talked about in the last thread you opened on this subject.
Skallagrim
Banned
Everyone is talking about the effects on socialism, and who would fulfill a leading role... but is this even going to last long? The OP hints at conquering belgium! A militant socialist regime in France, still shaky, with huge opposition... I am almost certain that other European powers will fund the conservative opposition, if not ivade the country outright.
Reading through the discussion, I'm surprised no one has brought up the French Army. At this point the Army was fairly unpolitical and loyal to the Government, so even IF some of the major cities fall to communes, what's to stop the Versailles government from sending in the troops like in OTL Paris? Unless all of the army generals are killed, I can't see the army just rolling over and accepting a Socialist regime. And that's not even MENTIONING the German Army still in France.
Couldn't the Germans support the Communards in order to keep France from recovering?
I imagine the Germans wouldn't want a nation that was ideologically unpredictable on their border. Better the devil you know?
Anaxagoras
Banned
Remember the old saying that when France sneezes, Europe catches cold? The Germans would not want socialist radicals gaining power anywhere. IOTL, they prevented the Communards from fleeing to the east when the French Army launched its final attack. If things went badly for the French government, it wouldn't surprise me if the Germans intervened against the Communards directly.
Razgriz 2K9
Banned
But in an aspect of Civil War, assuming the Germans are still involved themselves, what wouldn't stop the Germans from imposing a pro-German government in France?
Anaxagoras
Banned
The fact that such a government would fall the moment the last German soldiers withdrew from France, for one thing. And it would royally piss off the British, too. All in all, it would be more trouble than it would be worth.