WI: No Battle of Moscow?

This is a somewhat common Barbarossa POD, but I`ve never seen a thread dedicated to it. It has been mentioned many times on this website that Hitler actually intended to order Army Group Centre to fortify their positions after Smolensk had been taken.

So what if Hitler had decided not to attack Moscow in 1941.?

And please don`t just answer "Germany still loses" and end it there.
 

Willmatron

Banned
The man power devoted to Moscow could have been used in Stalingrad and Leningrad. Perhaps with enough man power each battle could have been won. Since Stalin was and did send a lot of people east to the Urals taking Moscow wouldn't have mattered to the war.

Instead use the Luftwaffe to bomb the rail lines in and out of the city, as well as the roads. I don't know the long term effects of the war if Stalin lost both Leningrad and Stalingrad, but I suppose it would hurt the USSR.
 
Would the increase in the size of the German's flanks with the assaults of Leningrad and Stalingrad be a problem for them, or would the man power shift negate that?
 
This is a somewhat common Barbarossa POD, but I`ve never seen a thread dedicated to it. It has been mentioned many times on this website that Hitler actually intended to order Army Group Centre to fortify their positions after Smolensk had been taken.

So what if Hitler had decided not to attack Moscow in 1941.?

And please don`t just answer "Germany still loses" and end it there.

You are quite right. During the war and immediately after the war the armchair QB's believed what you suggest was the war winning strategy for Germany. Later the discussion shifted and going for Moscow in mid August was the war winning WI. This Board endlessly discusses that along with Sea Lion, D-Day fails, Stalingrad, nerve gas, earlier jets and of course German A-Bombs.

I actually tried to raise this very topic about 2 years and the only response I got was that it was ASB because Hitler being anything less than totally stupid is ASB.
 
Dave Williams will still be known for Anzio and Flight of the Goeben. Battle of Moscow, while a really cool design and the full flower of concepts he pioneered in Anzio Beachhead, seems to have dropped without much of a ripple.
 
Germans don't take casualties they did during typhoon and Soviet counter offensive. Plus they have more time to settle in and resupply and reinforce forces.

Then again, Soviets don't suffer casualties they did during Typhoon. Assuming Kiev encirclement happens as per OTL.

With Germans further from Moscow Stalin woun't feel pressing need to counter attack ASAP to remove them. If Germans stop earlier he will probably think Germans plan on attacking in 1942 and might conserve forces to meet them. But there will be counterattacks, forces around Smolensk were eager to throw theselves at Germans earlier. Question is if these attacks make no/little progress (likely) at which point are they terminated?

Also what happens in 1942? Germans are stronger but IMO not strong enough to advance on whole front. Likely flanks (Leningrad and Caucasus, letter being bigger one) go forth but not centre. With two large offensive it's unlikely Soviets will see them as diversions to coiver future attack on Moscow.

So German main thrust is in the south. If Soviets avoid Kharkov offensive (likely seeing how they don't see Gemrans as on the ropes) germans advance with stronger forces against stronger opposition. Logistical problems will ground the offensive to a halt somewhat more to the west than OTL but Germans will likely avoid Stalingrad-like encirclements. Overall unfavourable front positions mean main focus is to the south. Until Germans can maintain advantage they can achieve Kharkov counterstroke-like successes but by 1943 chances of this will decrease.

There are no shattering defeats like 1941 winter counter offensive, Stalingrad, Kursk and Bagration, rather it's series of large engagements that step by step erode gemran power.
 
Clarification

To discuss this WI in a meaningful fashion we first need to ask whether the go on the defensive in autumn strategic decision applies only to Army Group Center. Historically Army Group North is instructed to take and hold aluminum producing Tikhvin while von Rundstedt was ordered to take Rostov. If AGN is not allowed to go on the defensive but gets to keep 4th PGp is it ordered to make another attempt to link up with the Finns which if successful (dubious) would result in the surrender of Leningrad.

There is a fascinating and often overlooked aspect of this POD and that is up until Typhoon the Germans were getting ready to send the 5th PzD to Rommel (had even provided with tropical equipment). With no Typhoon it should be sent.

When we get those questions addressed the next set concerns if/when/where Soviet counteroffensive.
 
Hitler

Hitler was already starting to lose it in 41 anyway he was ill. at the end his doctors were giving him pills at the insistence of boreman.
 
There are no shattering defeats like 1941 winter counter offensive, Stalingrad, Kursk and Bagration, rather it's series of large engagements that step by step erode gemran power.

What impact would this have on how the Western Allies prosecute the war? It was my impression that Stalingrad, along with being a very decisive victory from a strategic and morale standpoint, gave the WAllies the sense that the USSR can hold the Germans at bay allowing them to take their time in the preparations for hitting Western Europe.

If you don't have the crushing Stalingrad knockout would the WAllies be more likely to press ahead faster and take bigger risks? Could there be operations against Norway or the Balkans in an attempt to beat the Nazis through death by a thousand cuts? If it looks like the only way Stalin's going to win is by long, bloody slog that looks to them like the Western Front of WWI but bigger I could see that spurring them to try more desperate tactics.

The Germans will also have a big knock-on problem for their efforts: more men surviving means more materials are going to be needed at the Eastern Front. While it gives them more flex and options it also reduces how much they can spare for other fronts especially if the fighting turns into a series of meat-grinding slogs of the sort that consumes ammunition, parts, and fuel like nothing else.

No matter how things go on the Eastern Front if they can't find a way to miraculously knock the USSR down for the count by the end of 1941 or at least reduce them to full-scale retreat behind the Urals the Nazis can't win a two-front war with the USSR and the WAllies. Even if they aren't beaten on the battlefield sooner or later the resource requirements to feed the war machine and the massive resource advantages of the Allied powers will push their economy to overheating assuming the US doesn't open cans of sunshine over Berlin, Munich, and Hamburg first.
 
To discuss this WI in a meaningful fashion we first need to ask whether the go on the defensive in autumn strategic decision applies only to Army Group Center. Historically Army Group North is instructed to take and hold aluminum producing Tikhvin while von Rundstedt was ordered to take Rostov. If AGN is not allowed to go on the defensive but gets to keep 4th PGp is it ordered to make another attempt to link up with the Finns which if successful (dubious) would result in the surrender of Leningrad.

There is a fascinating and often overlooked aspect of this POD and that is up until Typhoon the Germans were getting ready to send the 5th PzD to Rommel (had even provided with tropical equipment). With no Typhoon it should be sent.

When we get those questions addressed the next set concerns if/when/where Soviet counteroffensive.

Well, from what I know of the situation, Hitler had historically planned to order only AGC to fortify their positions until his generals had talked him into Typhoon. AGN and AGS weren`t going to be stopped.
 
Well, from what I know of the situation, Hitler had historically planned to order only AGC to fortify their positions until his generals had talked him into Typhoon. AGN and AGS weren`t going to be stopped.

OK let's go with that. In the case of AGS then there is a strong case to be made that it plays out like OTL to the end of the year (this will incl. Hitler sacking Rundstedt). However AGN is not that simple because it will still have 4th PGp with it? Does it make a late Sept attempt to reach the Svir and link with the Finns forcing the surrender of Leningrad in at most a month if it succeeds? Or will Hitler assume control of Tikhvin will be enough to insure the city's surrender?

Even if you go with the more convergent later there will still be divergences. If AGN has 4th PGp then I do not see the Soviet counteroffensive taking it back Dec 9. In the long term one consequence is less aluminum for the Soviets and eventually more aluminum for the German. However of greater short term significance Leeb might use 4th PGp to sever the new Soviet lifeline to Leningrad which means Leningrad falls if he succeeds.
 
In late 1941... the German Manpower, tanks, aircraft and Logistics would probably be targeted towards Leningrad in the North and Rostov in the South to capture those two cities and anchor their Flanks so that once they do gain or isolated those two cities..

Any German Troop concentrations that can be free up can be sent to Army Group Center to reinforce them for the possibly up and coming Soviet Counter-strike...
 
I actually tried to raise this very topic about 2 years and the only response I got was that it was ASB because Hitler being anything less than totally stupid is ASB.
Sorry to hear that. There's an unfortunate feeling on some parts of the site that "Anything markedly different happening" would require magic. This includes people making different decisions.
 
OP barbarossa was the biggest mistake Hitler did, he should of turned west and occupied all of western Europe when he has got everything in the west then turn east with the full might of the Reich. In 41 we were in a worse position than 40 we were ripe for the taking.
 
OP barbarossa was the biggest mistake Hitler did, he should of turned west and occupied all of western Europe when he has got everything in the west then turn east with the full might of the Reich. In 41 we were in a worse position than 40 we were ripe for the taking.

... What part of Western Europe didn't Germany occupy by the summer of 1941? Neutral Switzerland, Sweden, Spain and Portugal, and unassailable Britain. What else was there?
 
Spain,Portugal,Sweden,Ireland,Turkey,Malta,Gibraltar and Britain to name a few.

Turkey isn't exactly in western Europe, invading the neutrals would have been counterproductive as, at the very least, it would limit the number of soldiers available for invading the USSR, and the Germans couldn't possibly have successfully invaded Britain.
 
Half and Half baby.

I'm not even sure what that means. Half and half of what? Yes, part of Turkey is in Europe - southeastern Europe, not western.

At any rate, every soldier who dies invading Turkey (or Spain or Portugal or Sweden or Switzerland) or is stationed there for occupation duties is one who can't take part in an invasion of the USSR. (Even in Turkey's case, what with its border with the Soviet Union, a soldier can't both patrol Istanbul and also slog through Armenia.) Manpower is a zero sum game.
 
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