Alternate colonizers of Siberia?

[Doctor Imperialism]

Something I've always been interested in. Was there any country that had a good shot at colonizing Siberia other than Russia?

[kasumigenx]

Originally Posted by Doctor Imperialism

Something I've always been interested in. Was there any country that had a good shot at colonizing Siberia other than Russia?

China or Japan could colonize the far east if they were given time, I think Korea/Joseon has designs on Yeonhaeju as well.

[scholar]

There's a difference between "could colonize" and "would colonize", without a European Power or any real power occupying the region making its capture worth something, if only for a few small ports, then its unlikely someone will take it over by the same standard as Russia did. Japan I could see claiming some of the islands, but they had enough trouble conquering the islands to their direct north. They wouldn't touch Siberia unless there was some strategic reason for it. China would most likely claim it as de jure territory, but I don't see them heading far into the forests to the north. Rather they'd probably reel in some of the wayward northern tribes and leave the rest of them to do their own thing. Expect it to be a place for exiles to go if there's no central or southern asia to ship them off to.

[Ze Kaiser]

China is probably the most likely. I once read a TL where a more enduring Mongol Empire remnant was able to recover some strength and snatched it up while the-state-that-was-to-become-Russia was busy. Japan might be able to colonize a chunk if they play their cards right.

[Abhakhazia]

China, Korea, Japan, Mongolia, maybe Britain or the US in a longshot.

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by kasumigenx

China or Japan could colonize the far east if they were given time, I think Korea/Joseon has designs on Yeonhaeju as well.

The Chinese showed little interest in taking over Siberia. For example, the Song were a little too busy with the Khitans and Jurchens, while the Ming were too busy with the Mongols. As for the Japanese, I don't see them trying to get that far in Siberia, though parts along the Pacific may be possible. As for Korea, Joseon had a difficult enough time controlling territory south of the Tumen River, so I don't think it would have much success north of it. Russia really seems like the best candidate to colonize Siberia.

[imperialaquila]

Mongolia, perhaps as a Chinese tributary.

I have seen an excellent map by B_Munro that had a massively expanded Persia conquer the steppes and well into Siberia.

[EternalCynic]

In Qing Dynasty China, it was a common punishment for a criminal or an undesirable to be exiled to Mongolia along with their entire extended family. Maybe they'd be forced to move further north to form a colder Chinese version of Australia.

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by EternalCynic

In Qing Dynasty China, it was a common punishment for a criminal or an undesirable to be exiled to Mongolia along with their entire extended family. Maybe they'd be forced to move further north to form a colder Chinese version of Australia.

I think it's a little late. Russia already reached the Pacific during Qing times, so the only way Qing Siberia arises is through a Sino-Russian War.

[RGB]

East-West transit is much easier than North-South because of the rivers speeding up travel without having to go into the steppe or cross the mountains on foot; in addition the Russians were better suited than anyone to the forest-steppe edge and waterway expansion which is what the valuable parts of Siberia are - because Northern Russia (where most service class people incl "cossacks" were from) is exactly like that and the Slavs-that-became-Russians had been at it rather successfully since before Rurik sailed in. They aren't dependent on horses as such, which is why traditional Central Asian empires found it hard to get to Siberia and had no interest in it, they don't need to seriously deal with the steppe tribes, only the weaker hunter-fisher-herders, and they don't need the massive logistics investment the conscript infantry forces Chinese or Koreans would have to make in order to cross those distances.

Japan is right out, bordering on sheer fantasy. Hokkaido was a 19th c. effort for them, and even Northern Kyushu was mostly wilderness by the time the Russians founded Khabarovsk.

Finally, Russians have been crossing the Urals to extract tribute somewhat often since the mid-1300s at the latest, so they actually have had some experience dealing with the locals, and they took on the Mongol/Turc system of vassals, tribute and hostage taking pretty much wholesale, making their takeover from previous overlords pretty easy. As long as they could beat the petty hordes of the Siberian forest-steppe border, they could hold the land.

If there's no Russia, whoever controls the European side of the Urals would probably be the best candidate. Failing that, whoever controls North China, probably better if not an actual Han dynasty.

Settled Persians and Turkestanis would have to tame the Kazakh steppe first, the Koreans could not afford the logistics effort, the Steppe tribes themselves tend to disorganisation over time and would have to face whichever European-technology people crossed the Urals 1400-1700 (and probably lose).

On the far eastern Seaboard, Spanish/English/Americans were considered a real enough concern by the Russians, though probably no earlier than the 1770s/1790s/1820s respectively.

[birdboy2000]

European side of the Urals, huh... maybe Kazan/Volga Bulgaria/modern Tatarstan could do it? It'd make for an interesting TL, at the least, and they seem to have many of the same advantages as the Russians.

[RGB]

Originally Posted by birdboy2000

European side of the Urals, huh... maybe Kazan/Volga Bulgaria/modern Tatarstan could do it? It'd make for an interesting TL, at the least, and they seem to have many of the same advantages as the Russians.

Certainly but with caveats. The taking of Kazan was a watershed moment for Russia, and Bulgar/Kazan was a huge cultural heavyweight (in terms of linguistic and material culture) on its non-Turcic neighbours for a long long time.

However, it was always pretty weak relative to Rus, and though it sits on the crucial Volga-Kama-Chusovaya route, it still needs serious motivation to make that first step. I'd leave that up to the TL writer to expand upon.

[Noddy]

A 'Dominion of Siberia' has long been my favourite alternate political entities. Can't really say much in regard to plausibility though.

[kasumigenx]

Primorsky Krai was actually a part of Balhae, you could have a rump remnant of Balhae surviving in OTL Primorsky Krai, that is if the court of Balhae moved to Primorsky Krai.

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by kasumigenx

Primorsky Krai was actually a part of Balhae, you could have a rump remnant of Balhae surviving in OTL Primorsky Krai, that is if the court of Balhae moved to Primorsky Krai.

Using the more restrictive definitions, that's not actually Siberia.

[tormsen]

Originally Posted by kasumigenx

Primorsky Krai was actually a part of Balhae, you could have a rump remnant of Balhae surviving in OTL Primorsky Krai, that is if the court of Balhae moved to Primorsky Krai.

A surviving Balhae expanding into Siberia would be a cool entity indeed. I may have to plan something along those lines.

[Tyr]

If we assume Russia for some reason doesn't bother extending eastwards and doesn't claim it and has no interest then England is a possbility. There was a lot of interest in Russia in Elizabethan days.
It would not be massed colonisation of Siberia though, more trading posts on the coast and perhaps rivers which ultimately down the line assuming a crippled Russia might grow.
Its a long shot though.

The only real possibilities are some alternate Russia or China.

Though a mega Persia could be interesting...

[Maxwell Edison II]

Originally Posted by tormsen

A surviving Balhae expanding into Siberia would be a cool entity indeed. I may have to plan something along those lines.

Even Better Korea?

[tormsen]

Originally Posted by Maxwell Edison II

Even Better Korea?

Well, a Balhae that survived and prospered and later became powerful enough to take over what we know as the Russian Far East and further west would only be 'Korea' in a rather loose sense of the word...

[Grey Wolf]

You can turn things upside down. The British and Scandinavians had lots of trade interests in the North. In theory if the Russians never formalised control, then there could be colonies coming down the rivers from the North.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf