If no Fort Sumter, does Upper South secede?

[Nerdlinger]

Suppose that, for whatever reason, the US government provides no military resistance toward the states which seceded prior to Sumter. (Maybe a Southern appeaser is elected in 1860 instead of Lincoln, or what have you.) This then results in Fort Sumter being surrendered without a fight. In such a scenario, would Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia secede? If they do go, would other slave states like Missouri and Kentucky go with them, given the absence of federal opposition? And finally, would West Virginia break away and stick with the Union as in OTL?

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by DJC

Suppose that, for whatever reason, the US government provides no military resistance toward the states which seceded prior to Sumter. (Maybe a Southern appeaser is elected in 1860 instead of Lincoln, or what have you.) This then results in Fort Sumter being surrendered without a fight. In such a scenario, would Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia secede? If they do go, would other slave states like Missouri and Kentucky go with them, given the absence of federal opposition? And finally, would West Virginia break away and stick with the Union as in OTL?

If a Southern Appeaser is elected there won't be a Civil War. Why would there be?

[Darth_Kiryan]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

If a Southern Appeaser is elected there won't be a Civil War. Why would there be?

Doesn't that just prolong the war into the next presidency, perhaps?

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

If a Southern Appeaser is elected there won't be a Civil War. Why would there be?

Perhaps a president who is anti-slavery but lacks the conviction to keep the union from being divided over the issue, then. I'm not sure who exactly would fit the bill, but suppose that such a person were elected.

[oshron]

personally, im more interested in the potential secession of non-southern states in this scenario; i heard a while back that new york was considering secession until sumter was attacked

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by oshron

personally, im more interested in the potential secession of non-southern states in this scenario; i heard a while back that new york was considering secession until sumter was attacked

Not really, some Southern sympathy in some quarters was blown way out of proportion.

[Spengler]

Originally Posted by oshron

personally, im more interested in the potential secession of non-southern states in this scenario; i heard a while back that new york was considering secession until sumter was attacked

According to who, Tigger?

[oshron]

Originally Posted by Spengler

According to who, Tigger?

jeez, its just something that i heard a while ago, i cant even remember where. no need to be snide.

[AStanley]

Originally Posted by oshron

jeez, its just something that i heard a while ago, i cant even remember where. no need to be snide.

a town did secede in New York (or so they like to think )

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Town_Line,_New_York

[Richter von Manthofen]

Snicker - last of rebels

[Cook]

Originally Posted by oshron

jeez, its just something that i heard a while ago, i cant even remember where. no need to be snide.

That was more to do with the draft riots that occurred later during the war.

[Nerdlinger]

Any other takers on this?

[Miker]

Presumably, if the Federal government doesn't try to preserve the Union, the upper South would have no immediate cause to secede, but that doesn't mean they won't secede later on.

If the war doesn't happen all for some reason, then it's possible for peaceful reintegration after the market for cotton crashes due to overseas competition and slavery becomes less profitable.

If the war doesn't happen, there may well be conflict within the newborn Confederacy. Many in the Confederate Congress will want to expand west
and south, but with the weak General Government, they will be hard pressed to equip and supply an army capable of expansion.

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by Miker

Presumably, if the Federal government doesn't try to preserve the Union, the upper South would have no immediate cause to secede, but that doesn't mean they won't secede later on.

If the war doesn't happen all for some reason, then it's possible for peaceful reintegration after the market for cotton crashes due to overseas competition and slavery becomes less profitable.

If the war doesn't happen, there may well be conflict within the newborn Confederacy. Many in the Confederate Congress will want to expand west
and south, but with the weak General Government, they will be hard pressed to equip and supply an army capable of expansion.

I think a war with the US is inevitable in the long run as they WILL want a port on the Pacific.

[BlondieBC]

I think allowing Fort Sumter to fall, and presumably withdrawing federal forces from other bases in the South, would be seen as an acceptance of an independent CSA. Recognition from the UK and France likely follows, the second group of states do not leave the Union.

[Nerdlinger]

Even if the US recognized the original 6 (or 7, if Texas still joins) states to secede as an independent nation, wouldn't there still be compelling reasons for the Upper South states to join the CSA? For one thing, they'd be free from the anti-states' rights, anti-slavery North; for another, the US would have shown that they're soft on secession, so what's to stop them?

[67th Tigers]

Originally Posted by oshron

jeez, its just something that i heard a while ago, i cant even remember where. no need to be snide.

New York City, not the state, as the Free City of Tri-Insula. There wasn't sufficient public support for it to happen.

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by DJC

Even if the US recognized the original 6 (or 7, if Texas still joins) states to secede as an independent nation, wouldn't there still be compelling reasons for the Upper South states to join the CSA? For one thing, they'd be free from the anti-states' rights, anti-slavery North; for another, the US would have shown that they're soft on secession, so what's to stop them?

North America could well be balkanized as precedent has been set that if you don't like an election result ou can form your own country. The effect of this on the democratic process in the long run is obvious.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

North America could well be balkanized as precedent has been set that if you don't like an election result ou can form your own country. The effect of this on the democratic process in the long run is obvious.

That's quite possible. Though I would think any state(s) which desired to secede would want to think about how they'd fare on their own. If things go bad for the South, that might be a good reason for would-be seceders to stick with the Union.

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by DJC

That's quite possible. Though I would think any state(s) which desired to secede would want to think about how they'd fare on their own. If things go bad for the South, that might be a good reason for would-be seceders to stick with the Union.

By the time that is evident it may be too late.