If no Fort Sumter, does Upper South secede?

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Nerdlinger, Apr 24, 2012.

  1. Nerdlinger All-around smartass

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    Suppose that, for whatever reason, the US government provides no military resistance toward the states which seceded prior to Sumter. (Maybe a Southern appeaser is elected in 1860 instead of Lincoln, or what have you.) This then results in Fort Sumter being surrendered without a fight. In such a scenario, would Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia secede? If they do go, would other slave states like Missouri and Kentucky go with them, given the absence of federal opposition? And finally, would West Virginia break away and stick with the Union as in OTL?
     
  2. Johnrankins Well-Known Member

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    If a Southern Appeaser is elected there won't be a Civil War. Why would there be?
     
  3. Darth_Kiryan The Númenorean Sith

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    Doesn't that just prolong the war into the next presidency, perhaps?
     
  4. Nerdlinger All-around smartass

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    Perhaps a president who is anti-slavery but lacks the conviction to keep the union from being divided over the issue, then. I'm not sure who exactly would fit the bill, but suppose that such a person were elected.
     
  5. oshron Emperor of Rplegacy

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    personally, im more interested in the potential secession of non-southern states in this scenario; i heard a while back that new york was considering secession until sumter was attacked
     
  6. Johnrankins Well-Known Member

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    Not really, some Southern sympathy in some quarters was blown way out of proportion.
     
  7. Spengler Free AG! Banned

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    According to who, Tigger?
     
  8. oshron Emperor of Rplegacy

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    jeez, its just something that i heard a while ago, i cant even remember where. no need to be snide.
     
  9. AStanley Banned

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  10. Richter von Manthofen Gnome Fighter Ace

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    Snicker - last of rebels ;)
     
  11. Cook Real friends stab you in the front.

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    That was more to do with the draft riots that occurred later during the war.
     
  12. Nerdlinger All-around smartass

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    Any other takers on this?
     
  13. Miker Still lurking...

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    Presumably, if the Federal government doesn't try to preserve the Union, the upper South would have no immediate cause to secede, but that doesn't mean they won't secede later on.

    If the war doesn't happen all for some reason, then it's possible for peaceful reintegration after the market for cotton crashes due to overseas competition and slavery becomes less profitable.

    If the war doesn't happen, there may well be conflict within the newborn Confederacy. Many in the Confederate Congress will want to expand west
    and south, but with the weak General Government, they will be hard pressed to equip and supply an army capable of expansion.
     
  14. Johnrankins Well-Known Member

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    I think a war with the US is inevitable in the long run as they WILL want a port on the Pacific.
     
  15. BlondieBC Kaiser of Ozarks

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    I think allowing Fort Sumter to fall, and presumably withdrawing federal forces from other bases in the South, would be seen as an acceptance of an independent CSA. Recognition from the UK and France likely follows, the second group of states do not leave the Union.
     
  16. Nerdlinger All-around smartass

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    Even if the US recognized the original 6 (or 7, if Texas still joins) states to secede as an independent nation, wouldn't there still be compelling reasons for the Upper South states to join the CSA? For one thing, they'd be free from the anti-states' rights, anti-slavery North; for another, the US would have shown that they're soft on secession, so what's to stop them?
     
  17. 67th Tigers Banned

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    New York City, not the state, as the Free City of Tri-Insula. There wasn't sufficient public support for it to happen.
     
  18. Johnrankins Well-Known Member

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    North America could well be balkanized as precedent has been set that if you don't like an election result ou can form your own country. The effect of this on the democratic process in the long run is obvious.
     
  19. Nerdlinger All-around smartass

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    That's quite possible. Though I would think any state(s) which desired to secede would want to think about how they'd fare on their own. If things go bad for the South, that might be a good reason for would-be seceders to stick with the Union.
     
  20. Johnrankins Well-Known Member

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    By the time that is evident it may be too late.