Greece Holds: A Tale of a 3-Way Cold War

Benito Mussolini, the Fascist Dictator of Italy had always had long-term plans for the establishment of a new Roman Empire, which was destined, in his mind, to include Greece. His reasons for a attacking Greece were numerous, including greater oppurtunity to strike at British bases in the Eastern Mediterranean as well as increased influence over the states on the Soviet border, namely Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. However, arguably it was the successes of his more powerful ally Hitler which drove to look for greatness of his own. After the critical defeats his troops had suffered in the Egyptian desert, he turned to the Balkan states for new conquest. The Kingdom of Yugoslavia was perceived as too strong, Greece, with it's outdated armed forces and internal strife as well as the fact Italy had occupied the predominantly-Greek Dodecanese islands in the southeastern Aegean since 1911, made Greece the indisputable choice.

After the Greco-Turkish treaty of 1930 and the Balkan Pact of 1934, Greece's historic enemy Turkey was considered to be a more dormant threat. Albania was too weak to be a serious threat and was also a buffer dividing Greece from the Kingdom of Yugoslavia with which Greek relations were relatively cordial. The main threat, during the 1930's was perceived to be Bulgaria and her loud claim to Western Thrace. Thus, when, in 1936, Metaxas came to power in Greece , plans had been laid down for the reorganization of the country's armed forces and for a fortified defensive line along the Greco-Bulgarian frontier. The line was constructed under Metaxas' regime and named after the dictator: the "Grammi Metaxa". During the following years, the Army benefited from great investments aiming at its modernization: it was technologically upgraded, enlarged, largely re-equipped and as a whole dramatically improved from its previous deplorable state.

In early 1939, Italian troops occupied Albania, long under Italian influence, thereby gaining an immediate border with Greece. This new development cancelled all previous plans, and hasty preparations started for the event of an Italian attack. As war exploded in Central Europe, Metaxas, a private Germanophile, tried to keep Greece out of the conflict, but as the conflict progressed, Metaxas felt increasingly closer to Great Britain, encouraged by the ardent anglophile King George II, who provided the main support for the regime. This was ironic for Metaxas, who had always been a Germanophile and who had built strong ties with Hitler's Germany.

A mounting propaganda campaign against Greece was launched in mid-1940 in Italy, and the repeated acts of provocation, such as overflights of Greek territory, reached their peak with the torpedoing and sinking of the Greek light cruiser Elli in Tinos harbor on August 15, 1940 , by an Italian submarine. Despite undeniable evidence of Italian responsibility, the Greek government announced that the attack had been carried out by a submarine of "unknown nationality". Although the facade of neutrality and thus peace was momentarily preserved, the people were well aware of the real perpetrator.

On the eve of October 28, 1940, Italy's ambassador in Athens handed an ultimatum from Mussolini to Metaxas. By then Italy had concentrated a large part of the Italian Army in neighboring Albania, and the Duce demanded free passage for his troops to occupy unspecified "strategic points" inside Greek territory. Greece had been friendly towards National Socialist Germany, especially profiting from mutual trade relations, but now Germany's ally Italy was to invade Greece (without Hitler's awareness), partly to prove that Italians could match the military successes of the German Army in Poland and France. Metaxas rejected the ultimatum, echoing the will of the Greek people to resist, a will which was popularly expressed in one word: "Ohi" (Greek for "No"). Within hours Italy was attacking Greece from Albania.

Despite having been inadequately prepared for offensive in mountainous Greece, Italians initially achieved success. Before winter had even set in however, the Italians advance was stopped and they were forced onto the defensive. The Greeks launched a counter attack on November 14, 1940 which pushed the Italians back into Albania. This made good progress at first, but eventually ground to a halt with the fronts stalemated, due to Italian reinforcements, and exhaustion, lack of transport vehicles and inadequate supply on the Greek side. After the failure of a second Italian offensive in March 1941, intended by Mussolini to bring a success for Italian arms before the looming German intervention, the front was relatively quiet.

Although Italy was still a very large threat, Greek forces began to pull back to pull back to the Greek frontier. German intervention was becoming increasingly realistic and the decision was taken to adopt a defensive stance in the mountains so as to minimise German superiority. By late March the Greek units had withdrawn back into the mountainous terrain.

Shortly afterwards, Metaxas sent an official request for British assistance. With the arrival of British troops in Greece, Hitler finally took the opp8urtunity to rescue his flailing ally. After crushing Yugoslavia within 3 weeks along with other Axis forces, Hitler began his offensive into Greece...
 
So there are 2 PODs here:

1. The Greek Army pulls back into the mountains.
(In OTL they didn't.)

2. Yugoslavia is invaded and crushed before Greece is invaded.
(In OTL both countries were invaded on 06.04.1941.)


Correct?
 
So there are 2 PODs here:

1. The Greek Army pulls back into the mountains.
(In OTL they didn't.)

2. Yugoslavia is invaded and crushed before Greece is invaded.
(In OTL both countries were invaded on 06.04.1941.)


Correct?

Correct! The patriotic coup in Yugoslavia is earlier in this TL, making German intervention earlier as well. This helped to show Metaxas that it would be impossible to stay neutral.
 
The greek High Command's realistic approach would have been to abandon everything east of the river Strymonas and the albanian territory it held till the spring of '41 in order to form a defensive line which could realisticaly hold off/stall the german advance . But since the greek-yugoslavian border was hardly defensible, a new line across the river Aliakmonas would have been even better . Of course this meant abandoning northern Greece , along with the second largest city Thessaloniki practically without a fight , which the stubborn generals would not accept . In all cases, the british expeditionary force should have been more substantial than OTL, which was pretty much symbolic . And as far as Metaxas was concerned , he had been a decent staff officer and leaned towards Germany and Italy ideologically with his 4th of August regime , but he governed Greece only at the sufferance of the king who was, along with the vast majority of the people , a staunch anglophile .
 
The greek High Command's realistic approach would have been to abandon everything east of the river Strymonas and the albanian territory it held till the spring of '41 in order to form a defensive line which could realisticaly hold off/stall the german advance . But since the greek-yugoslavian border was hardly defensible, a new line across the river Aliakmonas would have been even better . Of course this meant abandoning northern Greece , along with the second largest city Thessaloniki practically without a fight , which the stubborn generals would not accept . In all cases, the british expeditionary force should have been more substantial than OTL, which was pretty much symbolic . And as far as Metaxas was concerned , he had been a decent staff officer and leaned towards Germany and Italy ideologically with his 4th of August regime , but he governed Greece only at the sufferance of the king who was, along with the vast majority of the people , a staunch anglophile .

I agree, although let's face it, abandoning Albania would be hard enough politically on it's own, abandoning northern Greece would be political suicide. A stronger British commitment would have been better, although as they were determined to fight on two fronts on north Africa and Greece further reinforcement will be hard.
 
As far as butterflies are concerned, does a a stronger british commitment(in fact a Sir Winston's wet dream since WWI) not jeopardise Connor's supremely succesful counterassault against the italians in LIbya?Or was that earlier on? As for the political suicide , Greece was at that time a dictatorship anyway, the Rodope mountain range forts could have been manned by token forces,in OTL they almost were . Maybe had the brits commited said forces and a cooperation with the yugoslavian army had been feasible, there could have been a defesive line drawn north of the yugo-greek border thus encompassing Salonica . Wishful thinking considering the rigidity of the greek high command and the collapse of the yugo army .
 
Last edited:
After crushing Yugoslavia within 3 weeks along with other Axis forces, Hitler began his offensive into Greece...
Three weeks seems awfully short for mountianious Yugoslavia. ?So will Greece pick up some escaping Yugoslav forces?
 
Three weeks seems awfully short for mountianious Yugoslavia. ?So will Greece pick up some escaping Yugoslav forces?

Actually it took the Axis less time in OTL.

So will Greece pick up some escaping Yugoslav forces?

Less than in OTL seeing as their defeat was even more utter than in our history. Also, as Germany will have more time on their hands Tito will have less success in picking up stragglers from the hasty German demobilisation of the German Army.
 
On April 11, 1941, the German Army invaded northern Greece. The Metaxas Line ran for 170 km along the River Nestos in the east, and then along the Bulgarian border as far as Mount Beles near the Yugoslav border. The fortifications held well despite the ferocity of German bombardments. As a result of the well dug in Greek defenders, the attacks by the 5th and 6th Mountain divisions were repulsed with heavy casualties mere days after the attack had began. A German report at the end of the first day said that the German 5th Mountain Division "was repulsed in the Rupel Pass despite strongest air support and sustained considerable casualties." After a week of fighting only 3 of the 24 forts which lined the Metaxas line had capitulated and only because they had been utterly destroyed.

Meanwhile the main German attack opened on the same day from southern Yugoslavia. Although the tanks of the 2nd Panzer Division made an initial quick advance down the Vardar valley they quickly suffered from bombardment by anti tank guns from either side of the valley and were forced into momentary retreat with heavy causalties. Only overwhelming Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronautica dominance of the air finally managed to scatter much of the Greek defence, Whilst the Greek air force and RAF forces sent to assist them fought valiantly they were overwhelmed and a fortnight into the campaign they had suffered heavy losses. With it now being clear that the Metaxas line would be outflanked, Field Marshal Papagos, overall commnader of the Greek enemy ordered a general retreat to the new defence line on the river Aliakmonos, where the bulk of the allied expeditionary force along with Greek reinforcements were waiting. However even though cut off from the outside world, the forts in the Metaxas line continued to fight stubbornly, the final fort surrendered in early May only after their reserves of food and ammunition had reached critical levels.

As April continued the Greeks continued to fight a stubborn rear guard action as they retreated behind the Aliakmonos defence line. As passes were blocked and bridges blown, heavy causualties continued to mount on both sides. By early May 60% of the initial Greek-Commonwealth force had evacuated behind the new defence line. Abadoning the entirety of Northern Greece proved controversial and wounded the pride of the Greek military establishment however they had fought a successful rear guard action and mounted heavy German casualties, forcing them to momentarily halt offensive operations to regroup and resupply. For the German high command this was unacceptable. Operation Barbarossa was due to begin in weeks yet the allies remained on the European mainland. In incredible frustration Hitler ordered a new offensive at the earliest possible time. The news that at the earliest this would be in June 1941 left him in a conundrum. He did not dare to delay Barbarossa any longer, however at the same time he would need every German division for the crusade against Bolshevism and a significant second front could not be maintained by the still strong Greek-Commonwealth forces. On May 15th, 1941 Hitler made his historic decision, that with the slower than predicted progress in Greece Operation Babrarosaa would be postponed for 1942.
 
June 1941 - August 1941

As the summer months began to roll in. As did the German panzers in their renewed offensive against the Greek-Commonwealth forces. Whilst allied forces remained strong, the postponement of Barbarossa allowed the Germans to relocate significantly larger forces to the Greek front. By mid June, the Axis had finally achieved a crossing on several sections of the Aliakmonos river. Soon the Allies found themselves in retreat once more. Leaving a rear guard in an attempt to hold the front as long as possible the allied forces began to evacuate their last foothold on the continent. Evacuations were hurried and disorganised, especially with the oncoming surge of Axis troops. However the valiant work of the Royal Navy, 26,000 were evacuated by the time the Germans had reached the southern shore of Greece. For the allies it was antoher bitter and humiliating defeat whilst for the Axis it was another propaganda triumph, at least on the surface. Behind the facade, the Nazi elite raged at the need to postpone Barbarossa.

The strategic island of Crete soon followed Greeces fate. Allied air power in the area was tiny and although codebreakers had warned off it, many allied troops were still staring at the sea when wave after wave of German paratroopers. Within 48 hours they had seized the adequate bridges and airfields for Axis reinforcements to come in, albeit at heavy losses. Losses were so extreme that Hitler essentially put a block on any future mass air operations. Instead the focus would be put on strategic bombing of the continuing allied holdouts in the Med, with Malta and Cyprus suffering the first of many savage air attacks to come in early August, unknowing that such atrocities were meant for the Soviet Union...
 
Actually losing Crete seems quite unlikely to me in this ATL. With the Allies managing to retreat in order, Crete would be heavily rwinfirced and should be able to hold out.

With no Eastern Front I predict that the Germans will now build a strong Afrika Korps and go for Egypt. They have both the time and the resources.
 

Larrikin

Banned
The Italians invaded Greece in 1940, well before the Italian disaster in Libya even began. At the time the Greek debacle was getting underway Italian forces where happily sitting well the Egyptian side of 'The Wire'.
 
Actually losing Crete seems quite unlikely to me in this ATL. With the Allies managing to retreat in order, Crete would be heavily rwinfirced and should be able to hold out.

Actually the retreat was significantly less successful than OTL.
 
August 1941 - August 1942

The bombings of Malta go on with increasing intensity, and as autumn slowly becomes winter, it is unclear how long the strategic island can hold with air attacks coming almost nightly and the RAF being unable to match the vast numbers of Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronautica aircraft. Meanwhile in Africa it seems that the British may be pushed to the Suez canal as greater numbers of German troops continue to arrive. After adopting a defensive stance on the eastern front, Hitler now pursues the Med front with greater vigour. If he can nullify Britain by the time Barbarossa is launched it could potentially make up for the delay.

Meanwhile the lack of a German invasion has apparently vindicated Stalins claims that they would not attack in 1941. Although there is evidence from his spymasters as to why this has happened he mostly ignores it so as not to spoil his great prediction. Now he has time to prepare the Soviet Union for the true German attack, the one which will come in 1942. All throughout the rest of 1941 and into 1942 the military reforms continue as the Red Army grows stronger by the day, disturbing German generals as they try and accommodate this change.

Meanwhile the Japanese are feeling much less secure than their northern neighbour. The US and Allied embargo is choking their war effort against the Chinese, and after negotiations collapse there only seems to be one way to take what they need. By force. With little prior warning, the US is welcomed into WW2 by a massive Japanese pre-emptive strike on their Pacific Fleet based on Pearl Harbour. Thailand surrendered within 24 hours of the Japanese invasion, Hong Kong was attacked on December 11 and fell on January 2, U.S. bases on Guam and Wake Island were lost at around the same time. By early 1942 the Dutch East Indies, Malaya and Singapore had also fallen leaving Allied morale worse than ever and the Japanese in control of the much of South East Asia. The Japanese are halted decisively in Midway where they lose 2 carriers in an aborted attempt to take the island. Although the US suffers the loss of the USS Wasp.

For the Germans, the chance to turn quasi-war in the Atlantic to real war is jumped on with great relish. In what is known as the second happy time, the poorly prepared US defences on the East Coast are menaced by U-Boat wolf Packs. By the time the US began to adopt a convoy based system they had already sunk hundreds of ships and millions of tons of shipping.

The Africa as well it seems that there is only victory for the Axis as Rommels now vastly superior forces push the Allies all the way to the Suez canal before turning south and reconquering Ethiopia for Il Duce. Now no Allied shipping can use this route any more, significantly increasing the time it takes to transit supplies and forces. This along he fall of Cairo stuns the world almost as much as the fall of France and although Franco continues to refuse to join the Axis it seems increasingly the that the Med is an Axis lake. This seems only to be underlined by the final capitulation of Malta in early July. Repeated attempts to supply the island were smashed in vain by the superior air assets of the Axis and without a hope of supplying it's starving population the island finally gives in. No invasion necessary.

For Chruchill now there is increasing anger over the alleged of how the war is being fought and as summer ends, the upcoming vote of no confidence in the British parliament threatens to end his premiership...
 
August 1942 - November 1942

After Barbarossa had been delayed in 1941, it had been a certainty at the time that the operation would go ahead in 1942. However as the time to launch the operation came nearer, it became increasingly clearer that the Red Army was a wholly different animal than it had been in 1941. Unlike in 1941 the Soviets were mobilising their forces in response to German mobilisation and were shooting down spy flights into Soviet territory as well as openly protesting them. Observations showed a general improvement in equipment, including large numbers of the new T-34's and Mig-1's. Since America had entered the war, her industrial potential was beginning to make an impact and had even greater potential. Hitlers ideological dream had been to destroy Bolshevism and secure the lebensraum Germany needed, however with America growing stronger by the day and the improving Red Army led to a monumental change of strategy in august. The focus would now be aimed at eliminating Britain and thus America from the conflict so as to remove a second front and put Germany on an improved footing to invade the USSR.

Thus the necessary arrangements were made for a full offensive across the Suez with the final intent of gaining oil rich Arabia, shaking hands with the Japanese in India and therefore forcing Britain into submission and cutting off aid to China. Meanwhile the Soviets received a naval cruiser, the plans to the battleship Bismarck, heavy naval guns, other naval gear and thirty of Germany's latest warplanes, including the Me-109 and Me-110 fighters and Ju-88 bomber. The Soviets would also receive oil and electric equipment, locomotives, turbines, generators, diesel engines, ships, machine tools and samples of Germany artillery, tanks, explosives, chemical-warfare equipment and other items. For Marshal Stalin, it seemed that things could not be any better...
 
Top