Peshawar Lancers Redux: North America

[Claudius]

Originally Posted by Jord839

I like this idea. Below that we've got a Republic of Mexico that is everybody's whipping boy and would very much like some revenge against the yanquis.

An interesting idea for the story would be a gradual thawing of relations between Texas and California eventually leading to a reunion and recreating the United States, with the goal of crushing the FSA and reclaiming the north. Could that work far enough down the line? Maybe after a fierce North American War Texas and California recreate the USA but with more states rights so it's something like a more integrated EU?

In 1899, the Diaz dictatorship is engaged in a bitter civil war. In northern Chihuahua Uriel Carasco set himself up as a caudillo, taking on and defeating several Federalista armies. Armed insurgents periodically cross the border into Texas and Arizona. A raid by one of these bands results in the overrunning of a frontier Texas town and the killing of some 150 Texans, including women and children. Governor Richardson calls a special session of the Texas Congress to discuss how to deal with the situation. In the meantime, Rangers, bent on revenge,cross the border and bucher everyone in the small town of Carlota, just south of the Rio Grande

[Claudius]

Originally Posted by King Gorilla

I think a creeping fascism is a brilliant idea Claudius.
Though under martial law, some elements of American civil society would survive the initial months after the fall. As soon as it starts to get much colder, there begins an orderly evacuation to California starting with the upper great lakes, which soon spreads to the entirety of the Midwest. The evacuation is conducted by lottery, with all the resulting gilded age bribery soon entering the picture. As the first snows fall, the government is forced to forcibly consrupts large teams of labors to try and keep the mountain paths open, likewise bandits begin to start praying on the refuggee trains. Eventually the East is completely cut off from the west. The great plains are soon all but abandoned as the last people in Kansas City and Omaha are either shipped out or abandoned. As the winter worsens, and massive crop failures abound, conditions worsen everywhere. Strict rationing is issued with, the highest approved rations going to the military, coal miners, fisherman, and rail crews. The evacuation routes have shifted towards Texas, as enormous crop failures effect Tenesse and Kentucky. Hanging becomes the punishment for the most minor offenses, and riots are put down with lethal force. The red shirts rise against the northern settlers and are put down viciously. The newer groups of refugees are increasingly being forced into indentured servitude, working on adhoc plantations seeking to turn out a meagre crops of corn and wheat. Bandits and low intensity warfare abound the rural areas. Informants are hired with extra ration cards and a nucleaus of a secret police emmerges.

Sounds very reasonable. Who is taking charge and directing this. The Governors of the states or General Sherman in St. Louis (assiming St. Louis wasn't hit)? President Hayes and every member of Congress are gone.

[King Gorilla]

Definitely Sherman, I doubt any city will be directly hit by an asteroid fragment even if they do have multi-megaton impacts, plus I always imagined that the Dakotas got hit with the brunt of them.

[Strategos' Risk]

So how are we gonna decide which of these ideas to pick?

I'm pretty sure that everyone is in favor of an intact California surviving, as per the original novel. The question then is if CA will be its own independent nation, the U.S. government-in-exile, or part of a U.S. remnant government that's headquartered in the East. I think the consensus though is that it will most definitely not be a loose alliance of theocratic city-states as described in the book.

I think we can also agree that Deseret would hold out, though the question is if the will be as successful at surviving intact and unchanged as the book seems to describe it.

I'm not too sanguine about the chances of either a Native American or a Black Nation surviving. I think there may be ethnic-majority enclaves in the wilder interior- not to say that such enclaves are necessarily uncivilized, it's just that in places that are more stable the whites would probably not allow them to form.

Personally, I'm not against the idea of post-apocalyptic reverted-to-wilderness zones as described by "Shikari in Galveston" where civilization has degenerated and reverted to earlier forms. Unfortunately, the description in the story and the novel is probably not all that realistic.

In any case, we still need to decide what to do about the Midwest, the South, Texas, and Mexico. Any of these can be arranged into different combinations of various post-U.S. governments.

[Jord839]

Originally Posted by Strategos' Risk

So how are we gonna decide which of these ideas to pick?

I'm pretty sure that everyone is in favor of an intact California surviving, as per the original novel. The question then is if CA will be its own independent nation, the U.S. government-in-exile, or part of a U.S. remnant government that's headquartered in the East. I think the consensus though is that it will most definitely not be a loose alliance of theocratic city-states as described in the book.

I think we can also agree that Deseret would hold out, though the question is if the will be as successful at surviving intact and unchanged as the book seems to describe it.

I'm not too sanguine about the chances of either a Native American or a Black Nation surviving. I think there may be ethnic-majority enclaves in the wilder interior- not to say that such enclaves are necessarily uncivilized, it's just that in places that are more stable the whites would probably not allow them to form.

Personally, I'm not against the idea of post-apocalyptic reverted-to-wilderness zones as described by "Shikari in Galveston" where civilization has degenerated and reverted to earlier forms. Unfortunately, the description in the story and the novel is probably not all that realistic.

In any case, we still need to decide what to do about the Midwest, the South, Texas, and Mexico. Any of these can be arranged into different combinations of various post-U.S. governments.

I personally like the idea of the FSA and a seperate Republic of Texas. I think that an interesting part of the story could be a reluctant alliance between Texas and California leading to eventual warming relations and (even more eventually) reunion into a new USA which then sets its sights on conquering the FSA and heading back north.

As for the north, I don't think things will devolve to cannabalistic tribal societies, but it may be worse than the situation in Europe. Remember, NA doesn't have a gulf stream to help make things better for them like Europe, so things are probably worse here environmentally.

I agree that the Black and Indian nations probably won't be allowed by the White nations to survive, though one of the Republics may allow the Apache/Navajo/whatever their own state/province/whatever within the Republic.

Deseret is screwed in the long run, and is unlikely to survive for reasons already stated in this thread.

[Shadow Knight]

If I might suggest before you go all out on deciding such things how about looking at what areas are going to be devastated (much of the Atlantic coast, but how far inland for example). Where there any subsequent asteroid chunks that hit inland of large size?

Also perhaps a look at the rail network of the US to get an idea of where/how northerners might flee:



Also just how far north is going to be truly uninhabitable (i.e. too cold), and if so for how long?

I'd argue that while many will flee south there will still be a presence in the remaining northern cities all along the Great Lakes, the Ohio River valley, and western Pennsylvania (Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Columbus, Pittsburgh, etc.) that would be there just because that is where the industry is (until for example it can be migrated down to say Birmingham where the iron deposits are).

While I could see California and a Deseret state going off on there own if the rail/telegraph lines to the east are severed for long enough (heavy snows in the passes through the Rockies) I'd imagine they'd do their best to regain contact with the rest of the US. Heck they could just send a ship from San Francisco down to Mexico and go overland to Veracruz and then on to New Orleans, it'd be slow but workable.

[Jord839]

Originally Posted by Shadow Knight

If I might suggest before you go all out on deciding such things how about looking at what areas are going to be devastated (much of the Atlantic coast, but how far inland for example). Where there any subsequent asteroid chunks that hit inland of large size?

Also perhaps a look at the rail network of the US to get an idea of where/how northerners might flee:



Also just how far north is going to be truly uninhabitable (i.e. too cold), and if so for how long?

I'd argue that while many will flee south there will still be a presence in the remaining northern cities all along the Great Lakes, the Ohio River valley, and western Pennsylvania (Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Columbus, Pittsburgh, etc.) that would be there just because that is where the industry is (until for example it can be migrated down to say Birmingham where the iron deposits are).

While I could see California and a Deseret state going off on there own if the rail/telegraph lines to the east are severed for long enough (heavy snows in the passes through the Rockies) I'd imagine they'd do their best to regain contact with the rest of the US. Heck they could just send a ship from San Francisco down to Mexico and go overland to Veracruz and then on to New Orleans, it'd be slow but workable.

I like the idea of surviving civilization in the north(one of the early things this redux decided was that more low-level civilization would survive and it wouldn't devolve in most areas into the cannabalistic pagan tribes that show up in the original PL) but the harshness of the winters and such is going to be too much for a surviving US state in the north. I can picture a bunch of city states redeveloping in the Great Lakes and all playing lip-service to the idea of reuniting into the US to appease the populace, but once they come into contact with the FSA, Texas and California they're going to change their tune real quick-like due to California's intense centralization, Texas's surviving Dixie culture, and the fascistic and oppressive nature of the FSA. I think maybe an alliance of Great Lake city-states(much like how Stirling claimed California was, though without the theocratic bit) may arise to resist the "false Americans" from advancing in the north.

Hmmm, that has possibilities for a post-fall new state...

[Emperor Norton I]

I was gonna suggest the idea of city states dotting the US myself.

And I'm not necessarily sure a hardline "fascist" Southern remnant is the way to go. Firstly, Fascism is a 20th century ideology so you'd need a different definition for what you had going there. Secondly, you have the Reconstruction governments, Radical Republicans and Liberal forces to deal with which could lead to a dictatorial government over the Dixans but not necessarily the blacks.

What states would you guys say make up the Southern remnant, btw? I personally think it could go up to Virginia at maximum with Pennsylvania gaining the kind of temperatures of Maine or something, but that's just my opinion.

[King Gorilla]

It all depends on how long and cold the nuclear winter is. Fewer people will survive if the nuclear winter means several years straight of unending great lakes freezing winter. Chances are some people will survive in isolation, eating their last surplus crops and surviving off of game and fish. But this won't be enough to support any sizable pre-meteor cities. With a diminished and decentralized population base, any resulting civilization will take a long time to play catch up with the southern nations. I see them being reunited with FSA either by choice or force within two to three generations.

[King Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Emperor Norton I

What states would you guys say make up the Southern remnant, btw? I personally think it could go up to Virginia at maximum with Pennsylvania gaining the kind of temperatures of Maine or something, but that's just my opinion.

I'd imagine the Southern remnant being centered around the Mississippi until it has the wherewithal to begin constructing railroads again on a mass scale. Hence the populated core of its empire will be Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois with anything east of it being limited to small homesteads.

[Claudius]

Perhaps Southern Fascism is the wrong term. it implies a Moussolini-type combination of Socialism with Nationalism. What I think we are tending to see is a nasty type of police state, although with an elected elite. That makes it sound more like the late Roman Republic or Putin's Russia. Nationalistic but with with an entrenched ruling elite controlling things with a combination of brute force and corruption. Blacks and many poor whites are forced into sharecropping or indentured servitude. Not the most stable government, but a dangerous neighbor...

[Secretariat]

One thing I haven't seen brought up is the Southern Pacific Railway--by 1878, it's crossed the Colorado at Yuma; two years later it reaches El Paso in OTL. With the Fall, I can see a push to build the railroad faster; I don't see the passes through Arizona and New Mexico being closed off by snow.

Also, New Orleans is IIRC still one of the ten largest cities in the US at this time...

I imagine that the Yankee industrialists will have set up shop in the ports (NOLA, Galveston, Mobile, Pensacola), in Birmingham, and along the oil wells (heating oil being, presumably, cheaper than firewood), and that the Southern Pacific is to the USA what the Trans-Siberian Railway is to Russia--a very long, very vulnerable windpipe exposed to Mexican bandits...

[Claudius]

I mentioned the SPRR in a couple of posts a while back. I see it as the main communication link between California and the Republic of Texas. Also would tend to preserve telegraphic lines, which are need for efficient railroading.

[Emperor Norton I]

Originally Posted by Claudius

Perhaps Southern Fascism is the wrong term. it implies a Moussolini-type combination of Socialism with Nationalism. What I think we are tending to see is a nasty type of police state, although with an elected elite. That makes it sound more like the late Roman Republic or Putin's Russia. Nationalistic but with with an entrenched ruling elite controlling things with a combination of brute force and corruption. Blacks and many poor whites are forced into sharecropping or indentured servitude. Not the most stable government, but a dangerous neighbor...

Well there's more to Fascism than that initial definition you have (such as a general Laissez Faire attitude to anything the state does not really care about and lack of worker and civil rights), but I do agree that you could see a ruling elite and more of a "Dictatorial Republic"; however, I'm not sure as to the extent of how Dictatorial it is compared to Republic, though Rome could be a good comparison. However, how would the Radical Republicans and Reconstruction governments of the Southern states which would be in power when the Fall happened, and at their height no less, exist in a Southern remnant government? That's my reasoning as to a rule by Yankee, "Scalawag" and Southern Black politicians perhaps coming in leiu of a Dixan-Yankee Hegemony over poor whites and poor blacks in a Draconian state. And take into account that during this time (and I'm not sure if this was mentioned), the US had a large portion of the military in this area for Reconstruction as well.

[Nugax]

Originally Posted by Jord839

I like the idea of surviving civilization in the north(one of the early things this redux decided was that more low-level civilization would survive and it wouldn't devolve in most areas into the cannabalistic pagan tribes that show up in the original PL) but the harshness of the winters and such is going to be too much for a surviving US state in the north. I can picture a bunch of city states redeveloping in the Great Lakes and all playing lip-service to the idea of reuniting into the US to appease the populace, but once they come into contact with the FSA, Texas and California they're going to change their tune real quick-like due to California's intense centralization, Texas's surviving Dixie culture, and the fascistic and oppressive nature of the FSA. I think maybe an alliance of Great Lake city-states(much like how Stirling claimed California was, though without the theocratic bit) may arise to resist the "false Americans" from advancing in the north.

Hmmm, that has possibilities for a post-fall new state...

You mean like this?

Originally Posted by Emperor Norton I

I was gonna suggest the idea of city states dotting the US myself.

And I'm not necessarily sure a hardline "fascist" Southern remnant is the way to go. Firstly, Fascism is a 20th century ideology so you'd need a different definition for what you had going there. Secondly, you have the Reconstruction governments, Radical Republicans and Liberal forces to deal with which could lead to a dictatorial government over the Dixans but not necessarily the blacks.

What states would you guys say make up the Southern remnant, btw? I personally think it could go up to Virginia at maximum with Pennsylvania gaining the kind of temperatures of Maine or something, but that's just my opinion.

Pennsylvania won't survive the Fall as it will be one third wave blasted, one third cut apart by mountain snows, and one third buried under snow from the lakes. Of course there's no reason the Southern polity wouldn't extend itself there later to harvest the extensive energy reserves.

[Claudius]

Originally Posted by Emperor Norton I

Well there's more to Fascism than that initial definition you have (such as a general Laissez Faire attitude to anything the state does not really care about and lack of worker and civil rights), but I do agree that you could see a ruling elite and more of a "Dictatorial Republic"; however, I'm not sure as to the extent of how Dictatorial it is compared to Republic, though Rome could be a good comparison. However, how would the Radical Republicans and Reconstruction governments of the Southern states which would be in power when the Fall happened, and at their height no less, exist in a Southern remnant government? That's my reasoning as to a rule by Yankee, "Scalawag" and Southern Black politicians perhaps coming in leiu of a Dixan-Yankee Hegemony over poor whites and poor blacks in a Draconian state. And take into account that during this time (and I'm not sure if this was mentioned), the US had a large portion of the military in this area for Reconstruction as well.

The"Scalawag" governement phase was coming to an end by the election of 1876 due to popular resistance. Certainly an influx of Yankee refugees will extend things for a while, but the wave of refugees will not outnumber the southern whites already in most areas. By the time people start to think about moving, it will be too late in many areas. The Unionist military edge wont last for long either since the factories, arsenals and shipyards in the East are no longer in existance. Probably we would see passive resistance and or bushwhacking by the southerners at first, followed as IOTL by changes in state constitutions post-1900 imposing something like the Black Codes and Jim Crow. Don't forget the example of Ireland. In the 19th century, the UK had a huge military and population dominance over Ireland but eventually the Irish got their country back by just those means. Maybe the South will see something like the Easter Rising circa 1900 or 1920

[King Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Claudius

n the 19th century, the UK had a huge military and population dominance over Ireland but eventually the Irish got their country back by just those means. Maybe the South will see something like the Easter Rising circa 1900 or 1920

I don't think that the Yankees will be too much of a problem, because as soon as it warms, the refugees will begin to be repatriated northwards into the depopulated states. The South more or less gets to keep its way of life intact, as the black codes are the devils bargain needed to cope with refugee crisis and famine years. Likewise the Yankees are useful bastards as the Black Belt survives pretty much untouched which means, without the Yankees the FSA could have a black majority which would be the worst nightmare of most southerners.

[The Doctor]

Sorry for low quality of my lines, but this is how I see the tsunami hitting North America. The purple line is how far I see it coming inland and is probably a moderate estimate. Red arrows show direction of the wave. The maroon line is a more worst case and probably is still moderate in my estimate for how far it goes inland for this are because of the plains and changing direction when it hits the Mississippi delta region. Orange is how far it may come up along the river itself.

[Shadow Knight]

I'm not sure that the waves are going to go up that high along the Gulf coast.

I don't have time right now, but if someone would like to play around with it here is a pretty cool asteroid impact generator:

Linky

[Claudius]

Well that kind of puts a dent in our discussion of Southern governance and the treatment of Blacks. The Black Belt is gone and most of the populated parts of Texas! Say it ain't so!