Peshawar Lancers Redux: North America

That's a promising path, but I still think St. Louis might get too cold for a couple of years. Still as a military outpost supplied in warmer month by riverboat might be possible

I was kind of going for an American St. Petersburg. St. Louis was where Sherman was based, it was a large city, pro-union, a growing industrial center and at the intersection between the Mississippi and the western rail networks. As the nuclear winter worsens it will get much colder, but given the tenuous hold of order, it might be too risky to move government to a more temperate location.
 
I think the area of a surviving US east of rockies you guys are suggesting may be a tad optimistic, even without Stirlings minor impacts in the interior:
1)If the tsunami sweeps to Appalachians, then its also going to roll right over Florida and onwards to the gulf coast to Texas, rendering those lands blasted and salt-ridden for decades.
2)The cooling will hit very hard for the American continental interior, especially if the great lakes ice over and there is heavy snow fall, and depending on the severity of of the weather the new agricultural boundary could be as far south as Tennessee (though IMO Kentucky is more likely).
3) Since cooling will also equal drying, you'll see vast productively losses in the western states as well, making food production west of Arkansas not viable for a few years as well.
Thus you'll end up with a livable region that could be as small as 5 states that millions of refugees will be trying to crowd into (since the cold and crops dying will not be quick, giving people lots of time to move). I could see a single state surviving, but the measures it would have to take to survive (since you can't just leave people behind like the Brits would) would leave horrific scars on its development and culture. Or you might end up with a few regional warlords based around army units that keep the peace and then slowly refederate. If you do accept Stirlings secondary shows then eastern America is utterly and irretrievably fucked.

One positive note would be whatever does survive will be nicely isolated by the wreaked coasts (the Mississippi delta will be torn up for one) and formidable geographic barriers, and will have many decades or so to pick themselves up without interference by the other powers. Plus the industrial northern cities would be nicely preserved by the layers of ice and easy enough to reclaim in a decade or so - its the surviving as a polity till then...

I agree with peoples thoughts on a competent California, though I think it'll stick with a much more coastal vector - railroads into the interior are immensely expensive after all and they won't be much point for centuries.
 
So far we have been assuming large migrations within the northern US. This might not happen. There's another possibility given both meteor hits in the deep ocean and on the continents. The oceanic hits put billions of tons of water vapor into the air, while the land hits create the nuclear winter-like temperatures. All that water plus all that particulate matter mean that its going to rain for weeks without stopping. Then the rain well turn to snow by winter. Net result, in a very large area like northern and midwestern America with limited roads The ability of people to move along dirt roads and the ability of trains to get past washed-out bridges and flooded tunnels will be almost impossible. the death toll could be even higher than we have been discussing. In California, the Central Valley might turn back into the huge freshwater lake that it was at the end of the last Ice Age.
 
I think the area of a surviving US east of rockies

I agree with peoples thoughts on a competent California, though I think it'll stick with a much more coastal vector - railroads into the interior are immensely expensive after all and they won't be much point for centuries.

Railroads are expensive, but the main lines of the UPRR and the SPRR are already built. The economic incentive to keep them in good repair are the mining opportunities in Nevada and Arizona. There are major sources of silver, lead and copper already being exploited in these states by the time of the Fall. All are necessary for the growth of the California Republic. The greatest population centers will stay along the coast as IOTL but economic penetration beyond the mountains willl continue
 

Valdemar II

Banned
So far we have been assuming large migrations within the northern US. This might not happen. There's another possibility given both meteor hits in the deep ocean and on the continents. The oceanic hits put billions of tons of water vapor into the air, while the land hits create the nuclear winter-like temperatures. All that water plus all that particulate matter mean that its going to rain for weeks without stopping. Then the rain well turn to snow by winter. Net result, in a very large area like northern and midwestern America with limited roads The ability of people to move along dirt roads and the ability of trains to get past washed-out bridges and flooded tunnels will be almost impossible. the death toll could be even higher than we have been discussing. In California, the Central Valley might turn back into the huge freshwater lake that it was at the end of the last Ice Age.

The migration won't begins before next fall, the first winter there's food enough the harvest is over.
 
Something to consider is that many African Americans (c.1881, 3 years after the Fall) are going to be interested in the "Back to Africa" movement. This will be especially true if the remnants of the Confederacy continue to assert themselves. With the "Knights of the White Camelia", "Ku Klux Klan" et al. terrorizing African-Americans, and with the federal government allowing these groups to act with impunity, Africa will seem like a refuge, leading to the foundation of a larger Liberia....
 
Something to consider is that many African Americans (c.1881, 3 years after the Fall) are going to be interested in the "Back to Africa" movement. This will be especially true if the remnants of the Confederacy continue to assert themselves. With the "Knights of the White Camelia", "Ku Klux Klan" et al. terrorizing African-Americans, and with the federal government allowing these groups to act with impunity, Africa will seem like a refuge, leading to the foundation of a larger Liberia....
Organizing it is much harder though. Most of the nations that flee by sea have massive merchant and military navies, so for them it's not as much of a problem. The blacks of the US do not have such a setup though. The only way they're going back to Africa is if the US government wastes resources to "get rid of the negros", and I think they'd rather just not bother.
 
How should we decide which approach to choose? Should we create a poll for this, or what?

The blacks of the US do not have such a setup though. The only way they're going back to Africa is if the US government wastes resources to "get rid of the negros", and I think they'd rather just not bother.

It would probably be easier for them to go to Haiti or just the American West, to be honest.
 
Organizing it is much harder though. Most of the nations that flee by sea have massive merchant and military navies, so for them it's not as much of a problem. The blacks of the US do not have such a setup though. The only way they're going back to Africa is if the US government wastes resources to "get rid of the negros", and I think they'd rather just not bother.
Then again, as early as 1822, there were many Quaker organizations, and definitely after 1872 with African-American charity organizations, NGOs that funded colonization of Liberia. While only a few people were able to afford the trip. Under the circumstances, several thousand more African-American (c.25,000-50,000) could alter the balance of power on the African continent....
 
Dont forget, that the Black population will be very much reduced by the Fall. Post Civil War many lived in Baltimore, Washington, and in the coastal areas of the Carolinas, Georgia and the Gulf states. Florida probably doesn't comprise more than washed-over sandbars Major floods on the Mississippi woun't help either. My vote goes for Blacks seizing control of parts of the deep South where they had a majority (either Louisiana or Mississippi possibly) With Reconstruction they would have had experience in political leadership and some had had military training during that period. In the chaotic situation of Yankees moving south post-Fall, crop failures and disruption of normal operations of government KKK activities will force the Black community to band together for self-defense
 
Dont forget, that the Black population will be very much reduced by the Fall. Post Civil War many lived in Baltimore, Washington, and in the coastal areas of the Carolinas, Georgia and the Gulf states. Florida probably doesn't comprise more than washed-over sandbars Major floods on the Mississippi woun't help either. My vote goes for Blacks seizing control of parts of the deep South where they had a majority (either Louisiana or Mississippi possibly) With Reconstruction they would have had experience in political leadership and some had had military training during that period. In the chaotic situation of Yankees moving south post-Fall, crop failures and disruption of normal operations of government KKK activities will force the Black community to band together for self-defense
Unfortunately, the situation would also lead to further displacement of African-American communities. Just remember while many Northerners were anti-slavery, many thought African-Americans were told to "mind their place". As proof, consider the film Birth of a Nation, received cheers from Northerners who saw the Klan as defending "white female honor", while honoring the slain Lincoln. One of the reasons Reconstruction ended in 1876 was the fact that many many Northerners felt tired with dealing with the issue in Congress, especially since Southerners controlled both Houses.

As for forming their own states, they have no access to military arms, except through white officers and commanders. Second, the white Northerners would most likely join the Southerners in their crackdown on African-Americans. The one time that African-Americans banded together was in c.1914 in Rosewood, Florida, wherein the African-American populace was slaughtered after a white woman accused one African-American male of rape.
 
This is what I see realistically for the territory of the Southern States of America following the Famine years. Texas is the largest and most important state, and the final destination for most of the more northern refugees. Louisiana, critical for its position along the Mississippi, surviving fishing fleets and sub tropical climate. Mississippi and Alabama being both comparatively warm and next to the great post apocalyptic bread basket that is the Gulf of Mexico. Arkansas, which would be the last temperate state, and scattered military outposts in Missouri and Tennessee. This would mean alot of dead people, and would undoubtably require alot of physical force to keep together, but I think it would be a viable state, capable of expanding northwards in about 30-50 years.
 
This is what I see realistically for the territory of the Southern States of America following the Famine years. Texas is the largest and most important state, and the final destination for most of the more northern refugees. Louisiana, critical for its position along the Mississippi, surviving fishing fleets and sub tropical climate. Mississippi and Alabama being both comparatively warm and next to the great post apocalyptic bread basket that is the Gulf of Mexico. Arkansas, which would be the last temperate state, and scattered military outposts in Missouri and Tennessee. This would mean alot of dead people, and would undoubtably require alot of physical force to keep together, but I think it would be a viable state, capable of expanding northwards in about 30-50 years.

Do you see them staying together, or forming several different states? I kind of am drawn to a revived Texas Republic. It has always been different culturally from the rest of the South and would have the size, population and wealth to make a go of it. Geographically its bigger than W. Europe! Also, once oil is discovered ( in the 40's or 50's) it will be an energy superpower compared with the Raj.
 
Things were already pretty violent in th South pre-Fall. Form the Wikipedia article on Reconstruction:

An explosion of violence accompanied the campaign for the
Mississippi's 1875 election, in which Red Shirts and Democratic rifle
clubs, operating in the open and without disguise, threatened or shot
enough Republicans to decide the election for the Democrats.
Republican Governor Adelbert Ames asked Grant for federal troops
to fight back; Grant initially refused, saying public opinion was "tired
out" of the perpetual troubles in the South. Ames fled the state as
the Democrats took over Mississippi.[73]
This was not the end of the violence, however, as the campaigns
and elections of 1876 were marked by additional murders and attacks
on Republicans in Louisiana, North and South Carolina, and Florida. In
South Carolina the campaign season of 1876 was marked by
murderous outbreaks and fraud against freedmen. Red Shirts paraded
with arms behind Democratic candidates; they killed blacks in the
Hamburg and Ellenton SC massacres; and one historian estimated
150 blacks were killed in the weeks before the 1876 election across
South Carolina. Red Shirts prevented almost all black voting in two
majority-black counties.[74] The Red Shirts were also active in North
Carolina.

Maybe what we see Post-Fall is a Turtledovian Southern Fascism
 
I think a creeping fascism is a brilliant idea Claudius.
Though under martial law, some elements of American civil society would survive the initial months after the fall. As soon as it starts to get much colder, there begins an orderly evacuation to California starting with the upper great lakes, which soon spreads to the entirety of the Midwest. The evacuation is conducted by lottery, with all the resulting gilded age bribery soon entering the picture. As the first snows fall, the government is forced to forcibly consrupts large teams of labors to try and keep the mountain paths open, likewise bandits begin to start praying on the refuggee trains. Eventually the East is completely cut off from the west. The great plains are soon all but abandoned as the last people in Kansas City and Omaha are either shipped out or abandoned. As the winter worsens, and massive crop failures abound, conditions worsen everywhere. Strict rationing is issued with, the highest approved rations going to the military, coal miners, fisherman, and rail crews. The evacuation routes have shifted towards Texas, as enormous crop failures effect Tenesse and Kentucky. Hanging becomes the punishment for the most minor offenses, and riots are put down with lethal force. The red shirts rise against the northern settlers and are put down viciously. The newer groups of refugees are increasingly being forced into indentured servitude, working on adhoc plantations seeking to turn out a meagre crops of corn and wheat. Bandits and low intensity warfare abound the rural areas. Informants are hired with extra ration cards and a nucleaus of a secret police emmerges.
 
I think a creeping fascism is a brilliant idea Claudius.
Though under martial law, some elements of American civil society would survive the initial months after the fall. As soon as it starts to get much colder, there begins an orderly evacuation to California starting with the upper great lakes, which soon spreads to the entirety of the Midwest. The evacuation is conducted by lottery, with all the resulting gilded age bribery soon entering the picture. As the first snows fall, the government is forced to forcibly consrupts large teams of labors to try and keep the mountain paths open, likewise bandits begin to start praying on the refuggee trains. Eventually the East is completely cut off from the west. The great plains are soon all but abandoned as the last people in Kansas City and Omaha are either shipped out or abandoned. As the winter worsens, and massive crop failures abound, conditions worsen everywhere. Strict rationing is issued with, the highest approved rations going to the military, coal miners, fisherman, and rail crews. The evacuation routes have shifted towards Texas, as enormous crop failures effect Tenesse and Kentucky. Hanging becomes the punishment for the most minor offenses, and riots are put down with lethal force. The red shirts rise against the northern settlers and are put down viciously. The newer groups of refugees are increasingly being forced into indentured servitude, working on adhoc plantations seeking to turn out a meagre crops of corn and wheat. Bandits and low intensity warfare abound the rural areas. Informants are hired with extra ration cards and a nucleaus of a secret police emmerges.
Another thing to consider is Black Codes might not just begin earlier, but are even harsher and have government support as it tries to keep the northerner refugees alive. Certainly a lot of tension and violence going on in the South...
 
Unfortunately, the situation would also lead to further displacement of African-American communities. Just remember while many Northerners were anti-slavery, many thought African-Americans were told to "mind their place". As proof, consider the film Birth of a Nation, received cheers from Northerners who saw the Klan as defending "white female honor", while honoring the slain Lincoln. One of the reasons Reconstruction ended in 1876 was the fact that many many Northerners felt tired with dealing with the issue in Congress, especially since Southerners controlled both Houses.

Ironically, despite any northern refugees entering the lower south, any surviving America would be much much blacker due to the black belt being almost completely untouched by the event and relatively non depleted by northern migration.
 
I think a creeping fascism is a brilliant idea Claudius.
Though under martial law, some elements of American civil society would survive the initial months after the fall. As soon as it starts to get much colder, there begins an orderly evacuation to California starting with the upper great lakes, which soon spreads to the entirety of the Midwest. The evacuation is conducted by lottery, with all the resulting gilded age bribery soon entering the picture. As the first snows fall, the government is forced to forcibly consrupts large teams of labors to try and keep the mountain paths open, likewise bandits begin to start praying on the refuggee trains. Eventually the East is completely cut off from the west. The great plains are soon all but abandoned as the last people in Kansas City and Omaha are either shipped out or abandoned. As the winter worsens, and massive crop failures abound, conditions worsen everywhere. Strict rationing is issued with, the highest approved rations going to the military, coal miners, fisherman, and rail crews. The evacuation routes have shifted towards Texas, as enormous crop failures effect Tenesse and Kentucky. Hanging becomes the punishment for the most minor offenses, and riots are put down with lethal force. The red shirts rise against the northern settlers and are put down viciously. The newer groups of refugees are increasingly being forced into indentured servitude, working on adhoc plantations seeking to turn out a meagre crops of corn and wheat. Bandits and low intensity warfare abound the rural areas. Informants are hired with extra ration cards and a nucleaus of a secret police emmerges.

Wow, Excellent! Possibly the Red Shirts become the enforcers/secret police of the emergency govenment(s) I assume that with the breakdown in transportation that anything larger than state-wide authority will not occur for a while. Texas will attempt to seal its borders after the first winter, and will be fairly successful at it. The Great Plains will be impassable, the Indian Territories murderous and the flooded Mississippi and Red Rivers will be a formidable barrier...
 
Wow, Excellent! Possibly the Red Shirts become the enforcers/secret police of the emergency govenment(s) I assume that with the breakdown in transportation that anything larger than state-wide authority will not occur for a while. Texas will attempt to seal its borders after the first winter, and will be fairly successful at it. The Great Plains will be impassable, the Indian Territories murderous and the flooded Mississippi and Red Rivers will be a formidable barrier...

I wouldn't call them Red Shirts per say, as the have kind of a bad rep for resisting the military government. How about blue shirts?

So what we have right now for America post famine.

California: A "liberal" democracy, with a strong centralized government. It survives the disaster more or less intact due to a comparatively balmy climate, ready access to seafood, and a sizable but limited refugee population 100-300 thousand people perhaps. Any surviving Canadians in British Columbia, join the state in the early 1900's. Resettlement would begin up the pacific coast before going westwards. The west will be seen first as a source for mineral resources, however as Califronia's population grows so to will its demand for water. When the technology becomes available California will seek to dam and divert every available river to irrigate the arid regions of the southwest.

Texas: A militaristic republic, with limited voting rights. It receives 200-500 thousand refugees before cutting off its ties to the rest of the united states. The refugees are at first viewed as second class citizens, but ones that admittedly serve as a useful buffer against the blacks. It has alot of space to expand into, and all the benefits of a sub tropical climate. This means that it only has minor widespread starvation and famine. When things settle down, it expands first into Oklahama (with its bustling fronteir capital of New Chicago) and then Arizona. It has hostile relations with its neighbors and eagerly wishes to expand into Northern Mexico.

Federated States of America: Fascist state, it represents the remains of American centered in the deep south. It received 1 million- 2 million refugees. It really didn't have the means to deal with so many extra mouths, and widespread starvation commenced. Post famine it occupies Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama with scattered military outposts along the northern reaches of Missouri and Tennessee. It is a one party state structured along a strong military and meritocratic bureaucracy. Party membership with all of its resulting advantages is both rare and prized. Party membership is primarily held by the descendants of northern soldiers, and a collaborating southern elite. The population is kept in line by the Blue Shirts, a network of secret police and informants who seek to stamp out both dissent and insurrection. Though prevalent in the first post famine generation, animosity between southerners and northerners has largely subsided due to the "black menace" and the gradual repatriation of refugees. Post famine expansion is centered primarily along the Mississippi basin as expanded food production is given the highest priority. Blacks are second class citizens despite making up roughly 35% of population. They are kept tightly controlled and with resettlement limited to only the most marginal of territories (Georgia and Florida)
 
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I wouldn't call them Red Shirts per say, as the have kind of a bad rep for resisting the military government. How about blue shirts?

So what we have right now for America post famine.

California: A "liberal" democracy, with a strong centralized government. It survives the disaster more or less intact due to a comparatively balmy climate, ready access to seafood, and a sizable but limited refugee population 100-300 thousand people perhaps. Any surviving Canadians in British Columbia, join the state in the early 1900's. Resettlement would begin up the pacific coast before going westwards. The west will be seen first as a source for mineral resources, however as Califronia's population grows so to will its demand for water. When the technology becomes available California will seek to dam and divert every available river to irrigate the arid regions of the southwest.

Texas: A militaristic republic, with limited voting rights. It receives 200-500 thousand refugees before cutting off its ties to the rest of the united states. The refugees are at first viewed as second class citizens, but ones that admittedly serve as a useful buffer against the blacks. It has alot of space to expand into, and all the benefits of a sub tropical climate. This means that it only has minor widespread starvation and famine. When things settle down, it expands first into Oklahama (with its bustling fronteir capital of New Chicago) and then Arizona. It has hostile relations with its neighbors and eagerly wishes to expand into Northern Mexico.

Federated States of America: Fascist state, it represents the remains of American centered in the deep south. It received 1 million- 2 million refugees. It really didn't have the means to deal with so many extra mouths, and widespread starvation commenced. Post famine it occupies Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama with scattered military outposts along the northern reaches of Missouri and Tennessee. It is a one party state structured along a strong military and meritocratic bureaucracy. Party membership with all of its resulting advantages is both rare and prized. Party membership is primarily held by the descendants of northern soldiers, and a collaborating southern elite. The population is kept in line by the Blue Shirts, a network of secret police and informants who seek to stamp out both dissent and insurrection. Though prevalent in the first post famine generation, animosity between southerners and northerners has largely subsided due to the "black menace" and the gradual repatriation of refugees. Post famine expansion is centered primarily along the Mississippi basin as expanded food production is given the highest priority. Blacks are second class citizens despite making up roughly 35% of population. They are kept tightly controlled and with resettlement limited to only the most marginal of territories (Georgia and Florida)
I like this idea. Below that we've got a Republic of Mexico that is everybody's whipping boy and would very much like some revenge against the yanquis.

An interesting idea for the story would be a gradual thawing of relations between Texas and California eventually leading to a reunion and recreating the United States, with the goal of crushing the FSA and reclaiming the north. Could that work far enough down the line? Maybe after a fierce North American War Texas and California recreate the USA but with more states rights so it's something like a more integrated EU?
 
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