TLIAW: Shuffling the Deck After a Bad Hand

Shuffling the Deck After a Bad Hand
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Franklin D. Roosevelt
(Democratic)

1933-1945

After returning home from the Tehran Conference, a rapid decline in the President’s health was noticed by his staff. Every effort was made to keep him in good health, but this was proven futile when in early January, 1944, President Roosevelt collapsed from a stroke after speaking on his Second Bill of Rights and was confined to his bed. This caused an immediate panic amongst the administration as many were unsure of Vice President Wallace’s abilities as a potential Acting President at this critical junction at the war. Wallace, unwilling to be cast aside like Thomas Marshall ahead of him made many attempts to see the President and ascertain his condition, but was only dissuaded of this necessity when Cordell Hull and Eleanor Roosevelt insisted that the President was still able perform his duties. While the President covered, the Cabinet effectively ran the nation and war effort through the early part of the year. The President was even well enough to give a speech as the D-Day invasion commenced.

Despite the President’s recovery, it was clear that FDR could not run for another term. Behind closed doors, the Democratic machine found Wallace an unacceptable candidate, and vowed to find a palatable choice. Senator Harry Truman would prove to be that acceptable man, but Wallace’s support amongst the New Dealers put him ahead, barely, on the first ballot. After much arm twisting and shouting, Truman was nominated on the tenth ballot, but Henry Wallace stormed out with his supporters to revive the Progressive Party. While the war was clearly was going to end by the following year, which should benefit the Democrats, the civil war between the moderate and progressive factions made capitalizing on that success difficult. The 1944 election would prove to be a photo-finish.
 
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Now, who are you?
Uh, hello. I'm mostly known for Election Games in Shared Worlds that I never carried all the way to the end.

Sounds like you are the type to let a TL go dead once you get too busy or lose interest.
Well, yes, but this is a locked in formula so there is a kind of built in endpoint.

Alright, so what's the deal then?
After participating in Mr. Progressive's discussion of making Presidential Losers Winners (found here, I started thinking about what a TL with all of the Also Rans after World War II as President would look like. So this is a Shuffling of the Deck variety that borrows heavily from a few of my personal favorite TLIADs, Thande's US Shuffling the Deck (found here), Whanztastic's An Accident No More (found here ) and The Red's Down the Road to Defeat (found here). And of course, proper credit should go to the original Shuffling the Deck by Meadow and Lord Roem (found here).

Well, that sounds like a relatively interesting idea which would probably be a lot better if written by one of those guys you just mentioned then whatever you will come up with.
A little mean. Not wrong, just saying...And since I'm a relative novice at this, I will be looking to any comments to help me as I write this. I do have a pretty good idea of where these Also Rans will fall, what relatively OTL role they'll compare to, and how they get into the office.

You know you didn't have to do the Q&A thing with yourself, right?
I suppose, but it seems to be a kind of tradition, and it seemed like a good manner of introduction.
 
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Thomas E. Dewey
(Republican)

1945-1953

Thomas Dewey’s path from the Governor’s Mansion to the White House was cleared by a series of fortunate events. The two big contenders for the nomination were the 1940 nominee Wendell Wilkie and the leader of the isolationist wing, Senator Robert Taft. Wilkie’s surprise losses in the Wisconsin and Nebraska primaries to Harold Stassen led to the former nominee’s withdrawal and Robert Taft seemingly standing along. But, the Republican machine seeing a chance at the White House, and shy of nominating an isolationist while the war was unfinished put their support behind Thomas Dewey, whose background and his recent denunciation of isolationism allowed for comparisons to FDR’s, who won the nomination on the first ballot. Recognizing that party unity was necessary to topple the Democrats, Senator Taft was named Vice President and nominated by acclamation. With the nomination secure, Dewey and Taft went out to run a tireless campaign for Republican management of the end of the war, which may have proven fruitless if not for Henry Wallace.

Despite the distaste for Wallace by the establishment, and his peculiar personal proclivities, the Vice President did still inspire tremendous loyalty from committed progressives and New Dealers. Wallace tapped La Follette in Wisconsin to revive the Progressive Party and run on a joint ticket to take on the Democrats and Republicans. But, despite carrying Wisconsin the revival of the Progressives proved futile, and Wallace’s 10% of the popular vote proved enough to give Dewey a slight plurality of the popular vote and a comfortable majority in the electoral college. This slight victory didn’t help the Republicans down ticket, leaving Dewey with an opposition Congress.

genusmap.php

Dewey/Taft - 293
Truman/Blankhead - 226
Wallace/La Follette - 12

Dewey’s domestic policy agenda would have to wait until the resolution of the War against Germany and Japan. Having been prepped by FDR during the transition, and spared the flack of desegregating the military when his predecessor did so in his last Executive Order, Thomas Dewey went to the Yalta Conference mere weeks into his term. Inexperienced, Dewey stuck to FDR’s advice and lined up with Churchill’s proposals, despite not being as moved by Stalin’s promises on Poland as the Prime Minister was. When it became clear that Stalin was reneging on his agreement for democracy in Eastern Europe, Dewey ordered Eisenhower to move American forces into Czechoslovakia to “root out lingering Nazi forces”, vetoing Patton and Churchill’s original proposal of racing to Berlin. The Potsdam Conference between the leader of the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Soviets would prove a tense affair with Stalin clearly furious at the “betrayal” and the Soviets advancing through Japanese territory earlier than expected. At various points, the Conference was on the verge of collapse, but the election results from Britain broke the stalemate. Freshly Elected Prime Minister Clement Atlee pushed for making territorial changes official as they stood now, with Allied co-occupation of Germany, Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, with Czechoslovakia to remain under Western control at Dewey’s insistence. The Soviets would join in the Potsdam Declaration to Japan and their control over Manchuria, and imminent conquest of Korea, would be acknowledged. Given the passage of time, and the explosion of two American nuclear bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki brought the war to a close.

With the war brought to a close, and the details of the United Nations still being worked out Dewey would be forced to face problems back home. A post war recession set in, leading to national strikes that paralyzed American industry. Lacking the support of Congress, or many allies in the labor movement, Dewey would have trouble containing the unrest. Vice President Taft’s proposed legislation curtailing the power of the unions did spark enough fear into the strikes to go to the negotiating table, before being defeated in Congress. Just like FDR before him, victory abroad did not reap electoral benefits with Republicans losing a number of Congressional and Senate seats in the 46 midterm. With Congress even more against him then during his first two years, Dewey would put a focus on the United Nations and anti-Soviet policies while waiting for the right moment to put forward a domestic achievement in time for re-election.

John Winant resigned as Secretary of State to become the first American UN Ambassador to promote American interests and counter Soviet Aggression at the behest of newly confirmed Secretary of State Dulles. The administration put forward Secretary of War Marshall’s plan for building up the European Economy to prevent the spread of communism, combined the Department of War and Department of Navy, as well as establishing the CIA and National Security Council. And when the Soviets attempts a blockade of Berlin from the rest, Dewey and the Allies had an airlift of supplies into the City. Conservatives, other than the isolationists, in his party who had always been distrustful of Dewey were won over by the Presidents efforts against the Soviets seeing this as a struggle for capitalism and Democracy. Despite the President’s flagging popularity it looked like the Republicans would rally around their man for another term...until he called for the implementation of a Federal Health Insurance Program.

Dewey had long been an advocate of a healthcare since his time at Governor, but any such movement would be anathema to the right-wing of his party. But, as he locked in the Party support for his unwillingness to bend to the Soviets, as well as a number of vetoes of tax increases, he felt that 1948 was the year for a major domestic push. Congress was unsure of how to respond, seeing Dewey’s Plan, which provided plenty of leeway to the states, as too moderate and were uncertain of giving such a policy win in a Presidential Election year. When Senator Truman, the presumptive Democratic nominee, endorsed the plan, the legislation creating the Department of Health and Human Services and implementing the federalized health care plan would be passed just before the Republican Convention. Dewey’s complete control of the convention led to an easy renomination, as well as Taft’s refusal of the Vice Presidential nomination and the walkout of the conservative faction. Though the situation looked dire for the President, and polls suggested a Truman victory, the nation would come out to support him over his Democratic and Conservative Republican opponents.

genusmap.php

Dewey/Warren - 306
Truman/Barkley - 222
Taft/Wing - 3

Despite winning a second term, as well as barely taking Congress, Dewey couldn’t count on any other major domestic policy goals. The only major policy change he would have a hand on is the passage of the 22nd Amendment, limiting a President to two terms, which finally passed early in his second term. Unfortunately, foreign policy would be a mixed bag for the President as well. The creation of NATO with the major Western policies to counter Soviet acts were a success, but the UN action to prevent Communist China from taking all of the mainland bogged down well south of Beijing. When Congress returned to Democratic control during the midterms, Senator Humphrey’s criticisms of the shortcomings of Dewey’s foreign policy would prevent the furthering of American goals abroad. When the steel industry went on strike late in 1951, Dewey became quite despondent at his party’s chances in the upcoming election. The Republican convention settled on Wayne Morse as other more prominent Republicans opted to stay out of the race. But with the level of dissatisfaction felt by the American people, even the big names like Taft or Warren would have struggled to overcome the candidate the Democrats drafted into running.
 
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Interesting. Subscribed.

Are presidential losers who actually became president (Nixon, Carter, Bush I) going to be featured?
 
Interesting. Subscribed.

Are presidential losers who actually became president (Nixon, Carter, Bush I) going to be featured?

I'm also intrigued. I toyed with this idea after Thande's "Shuffling the Deck", but never got around to writing anything up. Looking forward to seeing how this pans out.
 
I'm a bit confused. Did Wallace win Wisconsin in 1944? It sounded like he did in the text, but not on the map.

Would there eve some way to have Ford elected but never inaugurated?

That's pretty clever. He could be killed off before his inauguration. That almost happened to Hoover back in 1928.
 
Drat! I was going to work on this idea in December. Oh well for me. I like it a lot so far, so do keep it up!
 

Thande

Donor
Interesting idea. This is another concept that could be applied in turn to other countries (and indeed has been in the shorter 'leaders list' format on that thread).

I'm a bit confused. Did Wallace win Wisconsin in 1944? It sounded like he did in the text, but not on the map.
Yeah, I noticed that as well.
 
Sorry for the delay in posting, I basically rushed to get the first posts out before going to bed.

I like it so far consider me subscribed
Thank you very much!

Interesting. Subscribed.

Are presidential losers who actually became president (Nixon, Carter, Bush I) going to be featured?
Thanks!

I was originally going to include those Presidential losers, but the idea posted below does seem interesting as well.

Would there eve some way to have Ford elected but never inaugurated?
This is interesting. A historical assassination could be pulled from, though there are other possibilities to pull from. Now I do intend to make every Presidential loser a a President, but not necessarily have them win it through an election.

I'm also intrigued. I toyed with this idea after Thande's "Shuffling the Deck", but never got around to writing anything up. Looking forward to seeing how this pans out.
Thank you!



Drat! I was going to work on this idea in December. Oh well for me. I like it a lot so far, so do keep it up!
Thanks for reading! I'd been sitting on this idea since Thande's TL, but finally just started typing.

Interesting idea. This is another concept that could be applied in turn to other countries (and indeed has been in the shorter 'leaders list' format on that thread).


Yeah, I noticed that as well.
I appreciate that. I had a rough idea to have something similar be happening in other countries, but those parliamentary systems make it difficult for this American to put his thumb on when people could have taken control of their parties and when comebacks would be possible.

And as for your other comment and this one...


I'm a bit confused. Did Wallace win Wisconsin in 1944? It sounded like he did in the text, but not on the map.



That's pretty clever. He could be killed off before his inauguration. That almost happened to Hoover back in 1928.
He was supposed to, it looks like I posted the original version of my map and results before deciding on La Follettee Jr for VP. I had made a map, then wrote the section, and meant to update the map. That will be changed momentarily.

I do know who is up next, I just have to write it. Should be up later today.
 
I have been working on something very similar from 1940 called " Every loser wins"!!
It has much the same idea as this timeline!!
 
Ah. Shuffling the Deck after a Bad Hand! I'm VERY intrigued by what you have planned.

And drafted? Don't you tell me you've chosen MacArthur, didn't you?
 
???

Shuffling the Deck After a Bad Hand
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...After returning home from the Tehran Conference, a rapid decline in the President’s health was noticed by his staff. Every effort was made to keep him in good health, but this was proven futile when in early January, 1945, President Roosevelt collapsed from a stroke after speaking on his Second Bill of Rights and was confined to his bed. This caused an immediate panic amongst the administration as many were unsure of Vice President Wallace’s abilities as a potential Acting President at this critical junction at the war. Wallace, unwilling to be cast aside like Thomas Marshall ahead of him made many attempts to see the President and ascertain his condition, but was only dissuaded of this necessity when Cordell Hull and Eleanor Roosevelt insisted that the President was still able perform his duties. While the President covered, the Cabinet effectively ran the nation and war effort through the early part of the year. The President was even well enough to give a speech as the D-Day invasion commenced.

Despite the President’s recovery, it was clear that FDR could not run for another term. Behind closed doors, the Democratic machine found Wallace an unacceptable candidate, and vowed to find a palatable choice. Senator Harry Truman would prove to be that acceptable man, but Wallace’s support amongst the New Dealers put him ahead, barely, on the first ballot. After much arm twisting and shouting, Truman was nominated on the tenth ballot, but Henry Wallace stormed out with his supporters to revive the Progressive Party. While the war was clearly was going to end by the following year, which should benefit the Democrats, the civil war between the moderate and progressive factions made capitalizing on that success difficult. The 1944 election would prove to be a photo-finish.
I've taken the liberty of underlining a section in the quote above which I find confusing: it says that President Roosevelt collapsed in January 1945. How would they know in the run up to the 1944 election that this is going to happen?
 
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Thomas Dewey finally wins a Presidential election. Looking foward to the next updates.
The poor guy deserves a break.

I have been working on something very similar from 1940 called " Every loser wins"!!
It has much the same idea as this timeline!!
Well thanks for reading, and I'm sure that there will be plenty else to write about besides what I do.

Ah. Shuffling the Deck after a Bad Hand! I'm VERY intrigued by what you have planned.

And drafted? Don't you tell me you've chosen MacArthur, didn't you?
Fortunately for everyone, MacArthur never became a major party nominee. Just some political parlance.

I've taken the liberty of underlining a section in the quote above which I find confusing: it says that President Roosevelt collapsed in January 1945. How would they know in the run up to the 1944 election that this is going to happen?

That would be because it's a typo. The Tehran Conference was in 1943, so he collapsed in 1944.

Also, I'm most of the way through my second update so it should be up soonish.
 
Adlai-Stevenson-Speaking.jpg


Adlai E. Stevenson II
(Democratic)

1953-1961

Despite the optimism by the Democratic faithful when looking towards the general election, the party establishment was worried that a rift in the party could create another 1944. The progressive and conservative elements, represented by Southerners Estes Kefauver and Richard Russell, were at each other’s throats over segregation and the validity of Dewey’s proposed and existing reforms. The Establishment was looking for some candidate that could unite these elements, but Truman was counted out after two losses; Barkley was too old; Humphrey too inexperienced. But then, Illinois’ Governor stepped out on to the stage to give a funny and energizing welcoming speech to the delegates. Some in the crowd were even moved to call for his nomination, despite the Governor’s polite, but insistent, denial. The Establishment felt they found found their man.

Adlai Stevenson had been elected Governor in 1948, despite Truman’s poor showing in the state. Popular in his home state due to the successful push for a convention to amend Illinois’ constitution, the Governor had developed the reputation as a moderate reformer. Supporting gradual integration and seen to use the veto in a judicious manner, he was seen as thoughtful and calming. In short, exactly what the nation and the party needed at the moment. A draft Stevenson movement put him even with Kefauver and Russell, before overtaking them on the next ballot. Worried that the intellectualism that won over the delegates might scare away the union rank and file, the convention selected the young firebrand Hubert Humphrey for Vice President.

While Morse ran a vigorous defense of his party’s policies, but it was hampered by a shyness to embrace television and an inability to chip at the Democratic campaign. While Humphrey was criss-crossing the country to glad hand and fire up the base, Stevenson would give high minded speeches about the state of the country. Stevenson’s television ads talking about the various issues in an authoritative, but understandable way, did much to win over the country. In the end, Adlai Stevenson was elected President by a considerable margin carrying many into Congress on his coattails.

genusmap.php

Stevenson/Humphrey - 355
Morse/Bricker - 111

After winning the election, Stevenson flew to China to meet with the diplomats on the ground to determine how the war could be brought to a close. Endorsing the UN solution to split the the nation in two, the President-Elect would stop in Japan, before making a brief tour of Europe, to meet with the politicians he would be working with over the next four years. It is said that Stevenson was greatly surprised by the warm reception he received from the Japanese and European public during his tour. After taking office, Stevenson pushed for the Armistice that was finally agreed to in the fall of 1953, while helping to organize a Southeast Asian equivalent of NATO to defend the anti-communist powers of that region. While never a firm believer in the containment policy, he strongly supported the rights of nations to self determination; this belief carried over into his handling of the CIA and NSA, where a strong leash was put on those agencies.

When Stalin passed away in Stevenson hoped that Soviets could be reasoned with to curtail the budding nuclear arms race as a prelude to a thaw in relations. Stevenson extended many offers for a conference to discuss nuclear disarmament, which were ultimately ignored by the Soviet Troika. Even after Khrushchev consolidated power, the lack of trust between each nation would delay the planning of a conference until late in 1956, which was canceled after the Soviet reaction to the Hungarian Revolution. With Soviet-American rapprochement off the table at least until a second term, Stevenson focused his attentions on the United Nations. UN Ambassador Eleanor Roosevelt was given the direction to push for global cooperation and the peaceful resolution of conflict. It would be Roosevelt and Secretary of State Acheson who negotiated the peaceful end of the Suez Crisis.

Domestically, the America was reaping the benefits from an economic boom. With increased trade, industrial output, the GI Bill and the continued strength of trade unions ensured that the middle class was quite comfortable. Stevenson would say little on the Brownell Court’s ruling declaring school segregation unconstitutional, calling for cautious implementation in respect to Southern Traditions. After the successful passage of the Equal Rights Amendment by Congress, Stevenson and former President Dewey would hold a joint press conference that is credited with the rapid ratification by the states. And after managing minor losses in the midterm elections, Stevenson was able to get the approval for the creation of a space agency in 1956.

The 1956 election was not a terribly exciting one. With the nation content with their President and the looming racial conflicts still only bubbling under the surface, both parties merely went through the motions. Stevenson/Humphrey were renominated by acclamation, while the Republicans renominated Morse just to put up a challenge. Though, if the parties and the nation knew what was going to happen, it seems no one told Morse who campaigned hard against the President. Ultimately, Stevenson was re-elected by a large margin, though the lack of support by black voters for Stevenson was cause of concern.

genusmap.php

Stevenson/Humphrey - 420
Morse/Ives - 176

With a fresh mandate, Stevenson put forward an aggressive domestic agenda. Clearly borrowing from his friend, Prime Minister Atlee, Stevenson pushed for more funding for healthcare, and a more sweeping housing policy. Stevenson was happy at how the middle class was getting along, but wanted to reach out to the lower classes in the United States that were often ignored. Perhaps the high-point for Stevenson's second term, domestically, was when Explorer 1 became the first man made satellite days after his second inauguration. In the summer of 1957, it looked like Stevenson might have a more productive second term than the first. But, in the fall of 1957 the threat of racial strife came to the surface.

When Governor Faubus used the National Guard to prevent the Little Rock Nine from entering the High School in which they had enrolled in clear violation of the Supreme Court ruling. Many, including the Mayor of Little Rock and his own Vice President, called upon the use of the military to enforce the Supreme Court decision, but Stevenson was worried about potential violence. Instead, President Stevenson urged Congress to pass a mild Civil Rights Act which would provide penalties for violators of the civil rights of African Americans and specifically ban law enforcement and national guard from violation of Constitutional Laws. This mild rebuke of the Governor and his policies would lead to Attorney General James McGranery working the legal system to enforce the penalties on Arkansas for it’s violation of the law. Arkansas schools would eventually be integrated, but not until the fall of 1960 with the standoff being a national embarrassment over that time period.

Stevenson’s social programs may have helped those on the bottom when the economy went into a recession in 1958, but that was small comfort for those in the middle class who began to lose their jobs. Stevenson made attempts to create a jobs program, but the effort struggled in a Congress disappointed with his handling of Little Rock. When the economy did begin to recover in the summer and fall, it proved too little too late; Republicans reclaimed Congress for the first time in over a decade, with Republicans making up ground on the edges of the Solid South. Rebuked in domestic policy, Stevenson turned to foreign policy for the rest of his term.

After the stinging losses in the Midterm, Stevenson went on a world tour, leaving Humphrey to run Cabinet meetings while he was gone. He would travel from Asia; to the Middle East; and to Europe; meeting with even the world leaders that had caused problems in the past, like the Prime Minister of Iran. The images of their President on tv, as well as his writings on his trip, did much to remind the people why they liked their President in the first place, even if a few naysayers were talking of an absentee President. Those voices turned to outright panic when the President flew to Moscow, but were forced into silence when the Stevenson returned to Washington with a commitment to a conference in Paris that summer to discuss nuclear arms. The 1959 Paris Conference would prove to be a tremendous success, with both nations agreeing to a test ban treaty and a commitment to further diplomatic relations amongst the two governments.

Stevenson would pass the torch to Vice President Humphrey to follow him into the White House, guaranteeing an easy nomination process who put a Southerner on the ticket for the sake of Party unity. Humphrey hoped to capitalize on the recent foreign policy gain, as well as the President’s revitalized image. Unfortunately for the Vice President, a second recession during this term as well as the campaign of the Republican’s charismatic nominee would make the election a close one.
 
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