Forward to Richmond

In 1861 the First Battle of Bull Run ended in a humiliating defeat for the Union, in large part because a second CSA force was able to link up with the main army of about 20,000 when the second USA force opposing it failed to hold it in place. As a result, all hope for an early victory ended in the North, and had the CSA had "5000 fresh troops" according to Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson, they might well have taken Washington DC.

Let us assume someone in Lincoln's cabinet was wise enough to give orders that left the CSA's two contingents divided. The larger force is overwhelmed by McDowell, and the smaller is destroyed between two USA forces as it tries to salvage Richmond.

As a result, the CSA capital is lost, some prominent CSA figures are killed or captured, although I will assume Davis and the top men escape. The CSA has lost 40,000 dead and prisoners, and many key officers including Stonewall Jackson are among the lost.

What is the likely development from this?

Remember: Robert E Lee wasn't involved with this battle.

Well would the loss of Richmond have caused a Confederate surrender.

If the South is defeated early the Emancipation Proclamation would NOT have been justifiable as a War measure.

How long does slavery survive?

Could it gradually have been pushed out of existence by taxation and by weakening the Fugitive slave laws?

Retreat to Montgomery, the original capital ?

Grey Wolf

Confederate Loss = Confederate Victory??

I wrote this on the old forum about a Confederate Loss at Manassas Junction:

"In OTL, First Manassas, though not decisive militarily, bore significant psychological and political consequences, many of them paradoxical.

Victory was worse than defeat for the South, because it inflated an already dangerous overconfidence. Many of the Southern soldiers promptly deserted, some boastfully to dispplay their war trophies, others feeling that the war was now surely over. Southern enlistments fell off sharply, and preparations for a protracted conflict slackened.

Defeat was better than victory for the Union, because it dispelled all illusions of a one-punch war and cause the Northerners to buckle down to the staggering task at hand. It also set the stage for a war that would be waged not merely for the cause of Union but also, eventually, for the abolitionist ideal of emancipation.

Now, suppose the Confederacy had lost at First Manassas...

15 July, 1861: General Thomas Jonathan Jackson, commander of the First Brigade of the Army of the Shenandoah, falls ill. He is bedridden for a week.

21 July, 1861: Lacking the stand of Jackson's First Brigade, the Union forces turn the tide of First Manassas. At the end of the day, the Union forces hold the field. Generals J. E. Johnston and P.G.T. Bearegard are sent reeling back towards Richmond. By the way, Jackson never earns the name "Stonewall" because he was not at the battle.

26 July, 1861: Ten miles south of Manassas, the Confederate Army is defeated again. Again they reel back towards Richmond.

3 August, 1861: Confederate President Davis, with the Union forces marching on Richmond, convenes an emergency session of his Cabinet. Two decisions are made: 1) General Albert Sydney Johnston, the officer most trusted by Davis, is ordered to take command of the Armies of the Potomac and Shenandoah. 2) Fearful of the capture of the capital, Davis orders the evacuation of the government from Richmond, moving them south, to Macon, Georgia [substitute Montgomery if you want although the side-effects of a Georgian capital are good >>>]. In this method, Davis hopes to gain further favor from Georgia, which is starting to become a thorn in the government's side.

13 August, 1861: Mainly through the actions of Generals Thomas Jackson and James Longstreet, the Confederate Army stops the Union one less than 20 miles from Richmond. The following week, Davis orders Longstreet to take command of I Corps of the Army of Virginia (Six brigades formally belonging to the Army of the Potomac), and Jackson to take command of II Corps (the Army of the Shenandoah reinforced by two brigades formerly of the Army of the Potomac). The new Army of Virginia is to be placed under the command of A. Sydney Johnston.

25 August, 1861: Johnston and the reorganized Army of Virginia defeat the Union force badly at Hanover Courthouse. With the Union Army on their heals, the AoV hits them again and again until they finally reach the town of Spotsylvania in late September.

13 October, 1861: Final organization of the Confederate Armies.

28 October, 1861: Troops of both Armies enter their winter encampments. Davis appoints his own military advisor, R.E. Lee as commander of the new Army of Tennessee.

Major Confederate Units as of January 1, 1862:

Army of Virginia (AoV)
Commanding officer: Lieutenant General A.S. Johnston
Units: I Corps of T.J. Jackson ; II Corps of R.S. Ewell
No. Troops: 60,000
Location: Outside of Ashland, Virginia

Army of Tennessee (AoT)
Commanding officer: Lieutenant General R.E. Lee
Units: I Corps of J. Longstreet ; II Corps of J.E. Johnston
No. Troops: 40,000
Location: Outside of Nashville Tennessee"

I don't think, given the status of the Union Army in 1861 and the quality of its troops and leadership at the time that it would have been capable of capturing Richmond. I think the timeline I present above is a much more plausible outcome of a Confederate loss at First Manassas.

this would result in a lot of differences. The US eventually won the war by realizing they had to make use of their overwhelming advantages in population and industry... a quick victory would likely lead to less consideration in future wars for strategic ways of waging war; the US would constantly be looking for another 'one punch' battle to end it all. The ACW in OTL led to the development of advanced weaponry, from the Henry rifle and Gatling Gun to the Monitor and Merrimack... a quick victory would have at least slowed developments in these areas. The importance of railroads (supply lines in general) wouldn't be realized so quickly. I think slavery would still end fairly quickly, as there was a lot of sentiment for ending it anyway, although the black population wouldn't have the example of the black regiments to look up to. Without the experience of a long and grinding war, Grant, Sherman, and Sheridan wouldn't have come to prominence. Also, with the lack of a long war, wouldn't the South be tempted to rebel again in the future?

The Confederate intelligence service screws up on the US attack plan and then the US sends a cavalry troop that burns the railroad that Jackson uses. Jackson gets there a day late, with his troops tired, to find the US army marching off a bunch of Confederate prisoners and the rest of the Confederate army drifting south as straglers. He is defeated by an army that is twice his size and the US has even more prisoners.
Three days later the US marches south again, having rounded up the Union straglers, promoted and demoted some officers, and gotten the Confederate prisoners sent off north. They enter Richmond and remove Richmond's Tredegar works and Norfolk's Navy Yard from the Confederacy. More importantly, the Confederates major saltworks in the Kanawha valley is taken.
The Confederacy doesn't surrender and the Union decides it needs to raise a much bigger army. It spends a great deal of time training and isn't really ready to go till next spring.
The much larger Confederate and Union army settles in for a fight, concentrating on the south Appalachian rail link and the smuggling harbor at Wilmington with the Pamlico sound inlets. The Union also works on cutting the smuggling ports in the rest of the Confederacy, as well. With less ships needed for the Norfolk blockade, it is faster off the mark.
The Union's ability to concentrate it's army in one place, without the need to defend the Cumberland Valley with Harper's Ferry, or to staff a Peninsula garrison, allow a much better force ratio in it's battles. There are no Chancellorsvilles, no Wilderness Battles. It's just like Atlanta with a Union army twice the size of the Confederate army and no way for the Confederacy to ever push them back. If they dig in, the Union army pins them with one wing and marches around and starts entrenching behind them with the other wing.
The Confederacy gets less financial aid from the British, and is able to import less arms and ammunition. It is less successfull which increasingly cuts its credit rating and imports in a vicious spiral.