Maybe a secret deal with french-canadian leaders would help. There was that famous battle with the Carrignan group(?) who shown the border there was a point, and well..
I'd say this, plus a victory at Lundy's Lane and/or Hull hanging on in Detroit.
Maybe avoid the French invasion of Russia, and have the British devote more resources to the Peninsular War? That would leave even fewer British troops for the Americas and allow the US an opening to make some gains. It might also make the British more desperate for peace, with all resources being needed to combat the French in Spain.
Along with this, you could have the US fight a war with Spain in the early 1800s over Louisiana and Florida. This might give an incentive to keep the US regular army stronger relative to its OTL weakness, with the memory and lessons of a recent war.
Maybe avoid the French invasion of Russia, and have the British devote more resources to the Peninsular War? That would leave even fewer British troops for the Americas and allow the US an opening to make some gains. It might also make the British more desperate for peace, with all resources being needed to combat the French in Spain.
How does Hull hanging on in Detroit mean an offensive victory?
I mean, okay, its a start - but what happens after . . . whatever happens to make that matter?
Good points. You rise the frequently forgotten reality that by this time, international events way farther than home may have repercutions home... And remembered that the US army was honest Shite for much of the nation's history...
By itself it isn't much, but if the French Canadians rise up, Isaac Brock and the British forces in Upper Canada will have American forces to east and west and be cut off from reinforcements.
And if wishes were horses. . .
Why are the French Canadians going to rise up in significant (to the issue) numbers, and how is Hull going to be able to take advantage of that?
Why would the French Canadians rise up, knowing that the inevitable outcome would be annexation to the US? They'd be throwing away their trump card against being mistreated by the Anglophones, which is the possibility that they might revolt and join the US. If I was the leader of the French Canadians, I'd desperately want that border slicing the continent in half to stay put.
I doubt the USA would be terminated.. The American Civil War proved that they have a defensible territory, and a second redo of this... well.
Stuntered, beaten up, but destroyed, no...