WI Hitler conquers Britain?

Yes, yes, we all know Sealion was never going to work. Completely implausible because the Kriegsmarine can't handle the Royal Navy, the barges aren't seaworthy, logistics is the ultimate cock block, and so on and so forth. Let's set those facts aside for a minute and just roll with the Kriegsmarine whupping the Royal Navy and the barges somehow not sinking en mass to look at what I think is an interesting thing to speculate on: how would the German occupation plans and British resistance likely play out? What is a likely invasion path post landing? Where does the Royal Family flee to? Churchill? What happens if, forbid, the Germans capture the king? I feel like we haven't really hashed into this subject because of the fact that Sealion was basically impossible, but I think it sounds like an interesting topic to discuss if we set the plausibility of the scenario aside.

America will have little to no chance of ever liberating Europe in this scenario. The use of the Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier was huge in setting up the invasion of Europe, and without, it is probably ASB for America to 1. If it's early, enter the war against Germany, and 2. If it's later, ever win the war decisively (at least in Europe). Depending on losses, the Wermacht may be in a much better position to deal with the Soviets, or may be in a much worse position.

On to Britain. It is likely that Hitler may set up a puppet regime like Vichy France in Britain, seeing as they are true Aryans, which are only misguided by their leadership (in Hitler's eyes). German troops may still occupy the land, but it will not be nearly as harsh as in other nations. I would expect similar treatment as Denmark or the Netherlands got by the Nazis.

Despite Seelöwe's complete ASB nature, if it were to work, the world would basically be a Germanwank.

Maybe, but not quite, because this gives the Soviets the opportunity they need to put together a proper defence on the Molotov Line, which even if it doesn't stop a German invasion, will seriously slow one down.

Also, a reconquest is possible, but it will be an island-hopping scenario, and will only work if Germany is committed elsewhere.

His Majesty and Her Majesty would never leave London. Ever. They'd send the princesses away (to Canada, most likely) if in imminent danger, but they would not abandon their kingdom. Many of the other governments in exile stationed in London would also go into exile in some other country. I doubt Hitler would place Edward and Wallis on the throne (they're in the hands of Britain anyway). Depending on how quickly the Germans advance, I can see the King declaring an unconditional surrender if the occupation is as quick as it was in Norway or Denmark. If the Army holds however, the British will fight until the bitter end until they are entirely pushed out of the country.

In either situation, Britain is left with a puppet government led by the King and a Tory Prime Minister (not Mosley). The Jews, Freemasons, homosexuals, Roma, and leftists who can't flee will be swiftly rounded up and deported (unless Hitler builds concentration camps on British soul). The Freemasons in particular would be a massive blow to the British Establishment. They'd imprison Churchill; barring large scale bombing of Germany, I think the Nazis are in the mood for leniency.

Also interesting would be the response to Japanese entry into the war. If Britain surrenders as a whole, raw materials can begin flowing to Japan. However, if a remnant government and the Commonwealth holds out, there will be an even more bitter struggle in the Far East.

Things look nasty on the Eastern Front. There cannot be a strategic surprise, the Germans have taken some additional losses as to the ground forces, many more losses in the Luftwaffe. The Soviets will probably also have had more time for rebuilding the new defensive line, deploying T-34s, reorganizing their mobile forces and training them and the air forces. And the USA will send all of the Lend-Lease to them.

The USA will be able to land in North Africa, but they will then need to build somewhere on that continent the ready-made infrastructure they had in Britain in OTL. That's mighty bad news for Germany and for German cities in particular, because a longer timetable means the nukes get used against them.

The USA might well have no appetite for landing in continental Europe, but the place will be eventually swarmed over by the Krasnaya Armiya, no matter if some parts of it are radioactive. Sometime during these operations, the much weakened German garrison in the British Isles will be overcome by US and BCE landings.

The Nazis actually did have a plan. Parts of it were insane (the Boy Scouts were apparently some kind of recruiting ground for SIS and the YMCA was run by Jewish plutocrats) and parts of it were horribly detailed. As Rebecca West once telegrammed to Noel Coward after the list of people to be arrested and shot was published: "My dear - the people we should have been seen dead with!"

Many lovely butterflies will flap their wings. But lets speculate...

So the Germans try and succed in taking the Isles, what are the losses?
As this in and of itself, lets say 70.000 dead and 210.000 wounded (deads are roughly Poland and France together). That will likely impact later stages as they would be the better trained and able man.
On the other hand, the cost of the garrisons could be said to be less. As the danger of an counter invasion is att near nil.
That will be more important as the war goes on, but the tens/hundreds of thousands held in Norway and the west are more readily availeble.

Next Italy? Will they have the embaressing setbacks in Egypt? Or will there be a settlement.
I tend to think that the Middle East and North African troops would likely hold still, as they are in range, but to what degree?
The Dominions and Asian possesions will most likely bind together in an attempt to saveguard themself.

Going on, will America be the same as OTL? I doubt it. As the whole battle for the Atlantic will likely miss. And a relative light hand approach could also temper their reaction. How likely? Don't know...

As for Stalin and the Soviets? That is the big question. Will they react? Yes! But to what degree. They were rather embaressed in Finland and in the throes of reequiping and shaking out their Army in OTL.
Would the focus on Germany bring a focus onto more material or building the best they could? And to what degree would they change their TO&E in the face of Germany?

The last point is LL. Would the USA realy bring fourth the carnucopia of Land Lease for the SU allone? Or would we see a gnashig of teath and impotent rage as the clear case for a DoW is hard to come by? I realy do not know as the Japanese reaction could swing many ways if they get ressources and "breathing room" to do what theyy did in China.


On the other hand, if the Royals and govs of the various states keep up the governament in exile thing that is too many individual desicions to think about. Too many people influencing each other in various ways...

If the Germans had invaded and won, I always saw Lloyd George as the British "Petain".

I can see Ireland entering the war on the side of the Allies and an eventual liberation of Britain by the Americans launched from there. If not, the Americans could simply launch an invasion of Europe through the Mediterranean via southern France and Italy.

redlightning said:

I can see Ireland entering the war on the side of the Allies and an eventual liberation of Britain by the Americans launched from there. If not, the Americans could simply launch an invasion of Europe through the Mediterranean via southern France and Italy.

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This is Ireland we're talking about.

Michele said:

Things look nasty on the Eastern Front. There cannot be a strategic surprise, the Germans have taken some additional losses as to the ground forces, many more losses in the Luftwaffe. The Soviets will probably also have had more time for rebuilding the new defensive line, deploying T-34s, reorganizing their mobile forces and training them and the air forces. And the USA will send all of the Lend-Lease to them.

The USA will be able to land in North Africa, but they will then need to build somewhere on that continent the ready-made infrastructure they had in Britain in OTL. That's mighty bad news for Germany and for German cities in particular, because a longer timetable means the nukes get used against them.

The USA might well have no appetite for landing in continental Europe, but the place will be eventually swarmed over by the Krasnaya Armiya, no matter if some parts of it are radioactive. Sometime during these operations, the much weakened German garrison in the British Isles will be overcome by US and BCE landings.

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Why would the USA even get involved? No reason to provoke the USA when Britain does not need to be starved.
Its true the surprise element will be lost in the east, but the impact of easier shipping stuff around (n effective blockade within Europe), the British Coal, no need for mediterranean diversions means a lot more effective German armament industry. The Russians will lose the war of attrition.
Maybe the British bomber aircraft industry will allow a strategic campaign in Russia.

Gudestein said:

Why would the USA even get involved?

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Read about the US stance towards Nazis.

Michele said:

Read about the US stance towards Nazis.

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I have done so. For quite a few years, actually.

Why would the US get involved in a war against a nation it no longer has any bases attack from?

I can see an increase in support for the Soviet Union, but that has a ceiling of 'but they're commies' and even if the US wanted to send expeditionary forces to Vladivostok, Stalin isn't going to let them fight alongside the Red Army unless there's a setup of the chain of command that's unacceptable to the US.

'we love freedom' isn't going to be enough to make the US sew wings onto the Big Red One and fly them to Berlin, I'm afraid. And besides, you only have to look at how long Saudi Arabia and North Korea have been around to see that a US with the greatest force projection in human history is prepared to leave horrific regimes in place if politics requires it.

If Britain falls, I wonder if that would prompt Japan into trying to take over British colonies in the far east earlier than in OTL (assuming the POD is early on)... and you'd think that this POD wouldn't do anything to stop the coming US/Japan clash... but this time, Hitler might not add the USA to his list of enemies... or he might, you can never tell with him...

Meadow said:

I have done so. For quite a few years, actually.

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Then the problem is more serious.

Why would the US get involved in a war against a nation it no longer has any bases attack from?

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Think before writing. The USA did get involved in a war against Japan, even though they had no bases to attack Japan from.

The reason why the USA would go to war against Germany is that it is not in the interest of the USA to have a hegemonic power in control of Europe, Africa, and some important bit of Asia. Especially if it's a hostile power, but frankly, in any case. That's why. And they would procure the land and build the infrastructure to have bases to attack from - just like they did in the Japanese case.

Michele said:

The reason why the USA would go to war against Germany is that it is not in the interest of the USA to have a hegemonic power in control of Europe, Africa, and some important bit of Asia. Especially if it's a hostile power, but frankly, in any case. That's why. And they would procure the land and build the infrastructure to have bases to attack from - just like they did in the Japanese case.

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there is the problem that the majority of Americans really didn't want to go to war in Europe, even though most of them thought little of Hitler and his goons. It took Pearl Harbor and Hitler declaring war on us to drag us into it. There's nothing in this POD that seems like it would butterfly away Japan's coming war with the USA (the same problems exist), but the onus of declaring war is still on Hitler...

Dave Howery said:

there is the problem that the majority of Americans really didn't want to go to war in Europe, even though most of them thought little of Hitler and his goons. It took Pearl Harbor and Hitler declaring war on us to drag us into it. There's nothing in this POD that seems like it would butterfly away Japan's coming war with the USA (the same problems exist), but the onus of declaring war is still on Hitler...

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That does not preclude an American DoW some time in 1942, especially since some of the butterflies that would be unleashed with the British Islands being occupied (namely stuff like "what happens to the Empire?") could lead to some rather extreme tensions between Germany and the US.

ObssesedNuker said:

That does not preclude an American DoW some time in 1942, especially since some of the butterflies that would be unleashed with the British Islands being occupied (namely stuff like "what happens to the Empire?") could lead to some rather extreme tensions between Germany and the US.

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unless Germany does something really weird, like trying to occupy Canada or places in the Caribbean, it seems doubtful. Of course, FDR could do something deliberate to goad Hitler into declaring war (openly sending supplies to the nations that still are fighting Germany, etc.), basically poking him with a stick over and over... but I don't think the average American is going to stand for the US starting it...

Kim Newman and Eugene Byrne had a small website on that, with an immediate background (including interesting bits on what we'd do for entertainment) and a potential timeline.

And, if the Nazis never lost, this story about John Major:

The President and the Duke went, arm-in-arm, over to that corner of the marquee where the veterans clustered, proud in uniforms they had worn and medals they had earned. They were all very old. Specialist nurses stood behind their wheelchairs. Those who had served in the Occupation were exempt from the Elderly Persons Act, and entitled to places in State Heroes Homes. UB War Pensioners were the envy of Europe. German veterans were lucky to get their cyanide pills sugared.



'Blind old gits,' said Michael, the Home Secretary. 'If they were weaselly enough to join the Fifth in '43, they were all out for the main chance. Some of the sneaks probably faked records. Everybody was doing that when I were a lad. If you had the SS grill a couple of codgers, you'd find half of 'em were on the beaches resisting the Invasion of Liberation, not joining in the liberating.'



The Home Secretary was a notorious cynic. As a schoolboy, he had begun his political career by informing on his father, an OE Group Leader.



'"They don't like it up 'em",' the Home Secretary quoted.



If anyone thought of the Heroic Fifth Column these days, it was as they were in Dad's Nazis, the popular BBC comedy program which made figures of fun of the dedicated but buffoonish patriots who assisted the Germans during the Occupation, wiping out the last traces of the Traitor Regime.



The Home Secretary hummed the Dad's Nazis theme tune, 'Who Do You Think You Are Kidding, Mr Churchill?' He'd been drinking steadily in the hospitality suite.



'Watch out, the mikes will pick you up.'



'Don't panic, don't panic,' the Home Secretary continued.

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